HoverBoarder
Graduate Poster
- Joined
- May 18, 2011
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Another great article by Edward Dark about what happened after what was maybe the greatest single tragedy in the whole Syria tragedy: The assault on Aleppo in Summer of 2012.
How foreign imams radicalized Syria's war
Interesting article, any new ideas on a long term solution?
The US run coalition has made some very positive gains against ISIS in Syria and Iraq, but no one anywhere seems to have a solid coherent strategy for a lasting end to the conflict.
I don't agree with Turkey or other Syrian activists who say that the only way to get rid of ISIS is to remove Assad, but on the other hand, Assad's neighbors will not allow for an Assad only solution. Unless Saudi Arabia and Turkey are convinced of an alternative to Al-Nursa, than this conflict will continue for at least another decade.
Both Assad and the more extreme rebels groups have been primarily focused on killing off the moderates since they would have been the most logical choice to carry out a negotiated end to the conflict.
I think that it is good that the air collation has not attacked Assad yet, as the best solution in my mind would be to have the Europeans and the UN to act as a mediator between the Iran/Russian proxies in Syria and the Turkish/Saudi Arabian/Qatar proxies. The US for its part has stopped much of the aid to the FSA and other moderate rebels (since they have primarily lost the fight to the extremists), and are mainly focused on removing ISIS.
There are solutions that could end this conflict earlier than a decade, but it would require serious negotiations primarily between those fighting the proxy war in Syria.
If Assad agreed to fair representation for all Syrians, a monitored plan to reduce regime attacks on civilians (bread lines, refugee camps, etc.), and an end to the oppressive Syrian torture police state in exchange for an Arab League (i.e. mainly Saudi Arabian) agreement to end all support for opposition groups in the country and (if Assad agreed to it) limited military assistance against ISIS in the Eastern part of the country, than there could be an end to the conflict in 1-4 years instead of at least 10 or more.
Assad of course would have to be convinced that external military involvement would not result in a Russian style annexation of parts of Syria. And ironically this would likely require a UN and primarily Russian monitoring of all Arab League military involvement.
The FSA and other moderate groups are almost gone anyways, but the remaining groups need to be given an option that is not Al-Qaeda, ISIS, or death at the hands of the regime. A negotiated amnesty for those left in Aleppo would be a key first step, and it would allow Assad to focus on Al-Nursa in the Northwest.
All of Assad's neighbors want an end to thee Syrian war, and the violent and costly spillover that it has caused, but that won't happen as long as the two sides of the proxy war won't work together on a solution.
