Is ESP More Probable Than Advanced Alien Life?

Fud, what do you call a "two-headed coin" of which one face is "heads" and one face is "tails"?

All of his arguments follow logically if you agree that coins can become chickens.


I flipped a coin into the air

It came to Earth I know not where

For it grew feathers and flew away

And where it went I cannot say.
 
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Here's my last attempt to convince you. After this, we'll agree to disagree:

I see. If I choose semantic accuracy, you will simply declare yourself "right", take your marbles, and go home, eh?

You have yet to address the substantive problem with your quibble-cook; will this post be any different?

What you're getting hung up on (missing actually) is that coin-tossing is a time-based process.

Oh, well, it was a small hope, at best.

The thing that you are being dishonest about is hidden in your construction.

It does not matter if coin-tossing is temporaneous, instantaneous, or multi-gol-darn-dangeous. Let's look at your "scenario", and (ignoring physics and reality), see if you have the capacity to spot the inherent error:

That means any scenario involving coin tosses can be divided up into segments of time. So that:

At T1, X is a two-headed coin.
At T2, X is flipped
At T3 X is changed into a two-tailed coin

Did you see it? Right there, when the bell rang? When the part of the audeince that believes in fairies, clapped their hands?

You said it yourself:
At T3 X is changed into a two-tailed coin

The flaw in your "reasoning" is not that it depends upon undemonstrated physical effects, but that (wait for it)
At T3 X is changed into a two-tailed coin

At any instantaneous moment after "T3", there is no longer a "two-headed coin" at all. Fud, you yourself said that it had been "...changed into a two-tailed coin..."

You may agree to be wrong from now until the end of peanut-butter season; that will not change the fact that whatever it is that lands, showing "tails"; however it was "changed" (voudun, eldrich physicks, miracle, magic, or prestidigitation); it is not, when it lands, a "two-headed coin".

How many "tails" can a coin have,and still be a "two-headed coin"?
ANS: not "almost none", but, in fact, none
At T4, X...

...which, by your act of will, has been "...changed into a two-tailedtwo-headed coin" and is not a "two-headed copin", at all, but a "...two tailed coin..."

...lands on the table, tails

From the above it follows that a two-headed coin can land tails.

No, Fud. Your own words demonstrate that what lands, showing "tails", in your fantasy scenario, is not a "two-headed coin", but a "...two-tailed coin..."

Do you read your own posts, Fud?

Consider: X is a bachelor. Therefore, X is an unmarried man. It logically follows, right? However, X isn't engaged in a time based process.

Now consider: Can a bachelor BECOME a married man? Sure, DURING the marriage the bachelor changes into a married man. That doesn't mean he was never a bachelor. It takes the same form as the coin:

At T1, X is a bachelor
At T2, X gets married
At T3, X is not a bachelor.

Therefore, it's logically possible for a bachelor to become a non-bachelor.

Instead of the word "land", use the word "become":

Can a two-headed coin become a two-tailed coin? Yes. Therefore, a two-headed coin can land tails, since it can become a two-tailed coin before it lands.

And that's as far as I'll go with it.

But I am right.

Keep claiming that you are "right"; it's all you have left.

Read your own scenario, Fud.

If the bachelor leaps out of an airplane and is legally joined in free-fall wedlock to the partner of his dreams by the sky-diving Elvis impersonator, does he land a bachelor?

(NTM, the process by which a bachelor can be changed into a married man in midair can be explained and conceptualized; which is not true of your fantasy process by which your "two-headed coin" might be changed into a "..two-tailed coin..."

However, you have my permission to continue to ignore reality.

Naetheless, Fud, a "two-headed coin" cannot land showing "tails". Epur habet duo capita.
 
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In an infinite universe, alien life exists, but let's stick to the observable universe, which is finite. I'll concede that given an infinite amount of planets, some will have life. I'm more interested in whether there's alien life in the observable universe.

To the rest of the universe we are alien life so yes.
 
I see. If I choose semantic accuracy, you will simply declare yourself "right", take your marbles, and go home, eh?

You have yet to address the substantive problem with your quibble-cook; will this post be any different?



Oh, well, it was a small hope, at best.

The thing that you are being dishonest about is hidden in your construction.

It does not matter if coin-tossing is temporaneous, instantaneous, or multi-gol-darn-dangeous. Let's look at your "scenario", and (ignoring physics and reality), see if you have the capacity to spot the inherent error:



Did you see it? Right there, when the bell rang? When the part of the audeince that believes in fairies, clapped their hands?

You said it yourself:


The flaw in your "reasoning" is not that it depends upon undemonstrated physical effects, but that (wait for it)


At any instantaneous moment after "T3", there is no longer a "two-headed coin" at all. Fud, you yourself said that it had been "...changed into a two-tailed coin..."

You may agree to be wrong from now until the end of peanut-butter season; that will not change the fact that whatever it is that lands, showing "tails"; however it was "changed" (voudun, eldrich physicks, miracle, magic, or prestidigitation); it is not, when it lands, a "two-headed coin".

How many "tails" can a coin have,and still be a "two-headed coin"?
ANS: not "almost none", but, in fact, none


...which, by your act of will, has been "...changed into a two-tailedtwo-headed coin" and is not a "two-headed copin", at all, but a "...two tailed coin..."



No, Fud. Your own words demonstrate that what lands, showing "tails", in your fantasy scenario, is not a "two-headed coin", but a "...two-tailed coin..."

Do you read your own posts, Fud?



Keep claiming that you are "right"; it's all you have left.

Read your own scenario, Fud.

If the bachelor leaps out of an airplane and is legally joined in free-fall wedlock to the partner of his dreams by the sky-diving Elvis impersonator, does he land a bachelor?

(NTM, the process by which a bachelor can be changed into a married man in midair can be explained and conceptualized; which is not true of your fantasy process by which your "two-headed coin" might be changed into a "..two-tailed coin..."

However, you have my permission to continue to ignore reality.

Naetheless, Fud, a "two-headed coin" cannot land showing "tails". Epur habet duo capita.


You proved it yourself:

Can a bachelor be a married man? No.

Can a bachelor land as a married man? Yes.

Can a two-headed coin be a two-tailed coin? No.

Can a two-headed coin land as a two-tailed coin? Yes

Do you see now? If not, I don't know how else to explain it.
 
Correct - the whole "proof of immortality" thing.

Bayes theorem cannot prove immortality.

Is it really the case that Bayes Theorem is used so sparingly here that anyone who uses it is automatically assumed to be a certain member?
 

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