Is ESP More Probable Than Advanced Alien Life?

Slowvehicle said:
And yet, somehow,Fud, you find it profitable to contuinue to assert that a coin that has been changed into a coin with one "heads" and one "tails" is still, in fact, a "two-headed coin".

Prolly the coin with which Lincoln bought his axe...
Click to expand...

Here's my last attempt to convince you. After this, we'll agree to disagree:

What you're getting hung up on (missing actually) is that coin-tossing is a time-based process. That means any scenario involving coin tosses can be divided up into segments of time. So that:

At T1, X is a two-headed coin.
At T2, X is flipped
At T3 X is changed into a two-tailed coin
At T4, X lands on the table, tails

From the above it follows that a two-headed coin can land tails.

Consider: X is a bachelor. Therefore, X is an unmarried man. It logically follows, right? However, X isn't engaged in a time based process.

Now consider: Can a bachelor BECOME a married man? Sure, DURING the marriage the bachelor changes into a married man. That doesn't mean he was never a bachelor. It takes the same form as the coin:

At T1, X is a bachelor
At T2, X gets married
At T3, X is not a bachelor.

Therefore, it's logically possible for a bachelor to become a non-bachelor.

Instead of the word "land", use the word "become":

Can a two-headed coin become a two-tailed coin? Yes. Therefore, a two-headed coin can land tails, since it can become a two-tailed coin before it lands.

And that's as far as I'll go with it.

But I am right.
 
Fudbucker said:
That is entirely the issue. If the coin can change, it can start off being whatever and land as something entirely else:
Click to expand...

Fud, I hate to interrupt, but you just obviated your "argument".

Follow:

If, arguendo (and only arguendo) it were, in fact, physically possible for the "two-headed coin" to be changed into "somehting entirely else", then (are you keeping up, Fud?) it would not be a twoo-headed coin, but, instead, "something entriely else".

Which of course, does not address the problem of whether the coin can, in fact, be changed into "something entirely else" by any actual physical process. Can 'god' make a chili dog so hot it can't eat it?

...back to your "argument"...

Fudbucker said:
Example: I toss a two-headed coin. I zap it with my atom rearranger and it becomes a two-tailed coin. It lands tails.

That is how a two-headed coin can land tails.
Click to expand...

Oh, boy.

Fud, do you read your own posts? Your schoolboy fairy-tale fantasy ("atom re-arranger", forsooth!) does not, in fact, explain how a "...two-headed coin can land tails..." Instead, it explains how a (please pay attention this time, Fud) "two-tailed coin" can land "tails". In your scenario, it is not a "two-headed coin" once it is changed. A "two-headed coin" has no "tails" at all, Fud.

Fudbucker said:
LOL, certainly not. Does the fact that you're not a kid anymore mean you never were one???
Click to expand...

By no means. However, Fud, the fact that I "...am not a kid any more..." does, in fact, mean that I am not "a kid" now.

You are starting to sound like Betheke.

Fudbucker said:
It can, the same way a kid can turn into an adult.
Click to expand...

An "adult" is not the"kid' she once was; a "caterpillar" is not the imago she will become.

Fudbucker said:
:)

Just like I told you, it's not enough that it's a place where you're not queen, it has to be a place where you can never be queen.
Click to expand...

One assumes you think you have a point here.

A "two-headed coin" has no "tails" side, Fud, nor can it.

I am not her serene (and nattily-acoutered) highness Winnifred I of Koozbain, Fud, nor can I be.
 
ehcks said:
The universe contains life at at least one location, The universe is large beyond measure and uniform in its contents and physical laws. Therefore the universe contains life at more than one location.
Click to expand...

In an infinite universe, alien life exists, but let's stick to the observable universe, which is finite. I'll concede that given an infinite amount of planets, some will have life. I'm more interested in whether there's alien life in the observable universe.
 
Daylightstar said:
Hilite by Daylightstar
In light of the above, your earlier question:


..... is very strange. Very strange indeed.
Click to expand...

87% of people who appeal to Bayesian theory do not understand Bayesian theory.
 
Giordano said:
I originally stipulated that the assembled deck was made up from standard playing card decks- reread my post. But yes, as I said, the assembled deck may lack any aces so I can't calculate the precious odds; as I said it could be zero. You asked for just such an example. But simply knowing that it might have an ace means it is more likely to have an ace than a 42 of spades.
Click to expand...

I would agree, on the face of it, but you're sneaking in some prior background knowledge (that standard decks don't have a 42 of spades), which is why I changed it to what I did. But even without changing it, you're still not on solid ground. If there's not an ace in the deck than the odds of a 42 of spades coming up are higher than an ace appearing.

So I don't think you can conclude that an ace appearing is more likely than a 42 of spades. In order to do so, you would have to look at a face down card and assign some kind of probability to it being an ace.
 
Giordano said:
We already know a lot about how kids become adults and there is a lot of precedent in them doing so. How does a two-headed coin become one with a tails, mid flip? And how often does this happen?
Click to expand...

It doesn't matter how often, it only matters if it's possible. It is indeed possible to change the coin in mid-flip, therefore allowing a two-headed coin to land tails (which is simply to say that a two-headed coin can start off two-headed, become something else, and land in a non-headed way).
 
Fudbucker said:
You still don't have logical impossibility. In order to get at logical impossibility you would have to claim that it takes you zero amount of time to examine a deck of cards OR that no ace can appear in a deck that has no aces while you're examining it. Consider the scenario:

At time T1 you hold in your hand a deck with no ace of spades. It is stipulated that the deck in your hand has no aces (i.e., "there is no ace of spades in the deck you were handed"). It is not stipulated that the deck will always be free of aces.
At time T2, you begin searching the deck.
At time T3, an ace appears in the deck a miracle happens
At time T4, you discover the ace.

This fits the parameters of the scenario.

ETA: Is it possible to get tails with a two-headed coin? Yes, because the coin could change when you flip it a miracle happens. In order for it to be impossible, a stipulation must be made that the coin can't change.

This is a needless derail. You won't change my mind, and I probably won't change yours. My scenario could certainly have been clearer, so I take the responsibility for that.
Click to expand...

FTFY
 
Slowvehicle said:
Fud, if the coin is, in fact, "two-headed", it cannot, in fact, land on tails. If the coin, in fact, lands on tails, it is not, in fact, "two-headed".

Fud, is it possible that I am her most serene and august imperial majesty, queen Winnifred I of Koozbain?
Click to expand...

You are more serene than I in dealing with this thread.:)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom