• Security incident: ISF was recently accessed by intruders. Please change your password, and change it anywhere else you used it. Read more

CEOs Get Paid Too Much, Says Everyone

Those "studies" are invalid. They usually check back on the prices within a few days or weeks. Usually, you can't really know if an investment has been successful until years have passed.

There are an awful lot of those "studies". For example, the Wall Street Journal sometimes has a group of investment experts come in and make recommendations, tracking the results of their investments over the course of a few months or up to a year. When they do that, they always include a dartboard option. Every one of those contests is a study. (The dartboard rarely wins.)

However there are also real studies of real investments, and in that case, the mutual fund managers generally do quite badly. If you threw darts at S&P 500 stocks you would, on average, get the return of the S&P 500 index. However, most mutual funds do not do as well as the S&P 500 index. By "most" I mean "over 90%".

Mutual funds almost always lose because they rarely make enough above random to cover their fees.

Meanwhile, though, the CEOs have to keep fund managers happy, to avoid big sales of stocks, and mutual fund managers really don't care about the long term performance numbers. They know that their investors cannot see the long term performance, but that the short term performance has a direct and immediate impact on the balances in the investor accounts.
 
In which case you could claim any investment is never a failure, as long as the company still exists, because it might suddenly turn around and make huge gains in the year 2870.

LOL!!!

True, but in the real world, unless one is a complete idiot (aka goldbug), usually you don't wait quite that long.
 
However, most mutual funds do not do as well as the S&P 500 index. By "most" I mean "over 90%".

The majority of fund managers under-perform the market in the long term.

Then find the 10% who do.

ETA: Before someone whines "but that 10% is different every year!!!!", yes, that is mostly true. But look back over 10-20-30 years. Certain names will keep recurring, whether the fund name itself, or the manager. It requires some work on the investors part.
 
Last edited:
Then find the 10% who do.

ETA: Before someone whines "but that 10% is different every year!!!!", yes, that is mostly true. But look back over 10-20-30 years. Certain names will keep recurring, whether the fund name itself, or the manager. It requires some work on the investors part.
1)If you're going to do the homework, why not just pick the stocks yourself?

2)In any game of chance there will be people who consistently win, or so it will seem. Any evidence that the stock market is different?
 
Some of us do. :)



Besides not being a game of chance, no.

But it is. Of course, it isn't a pure game of chance, like Roulette, but it has chance elements that come in two forms.

First, it's a game of incomplete information, which is just like a game of chance from the player's perspective. To illustrate the difference, consider a player playing Stratego. Your opponent has a piece next to your flag, and he is obviously going to move there. You have a piece next to two concealed pieces. You know that one is a flag, and one is a bomb, but you don't know which one. It's your move. Depending on which you pick, you will either win the game or lose the game, but you have no information on which to make the choice. You pick one and hope for the best.

Of course, an interesting phenomenon then occurs. if the player guesses correctly, and wins the game, he is very likely to say that he contemplated his opponent's psychological state and decided he was more likely to put his flag in that spot than in the other spot. If the player picks the bomb, he is likely to say there was nothing he could do. He just lost because of random failures.

In the stock market, lots of unknown scenarios are going on behind the scenes that, assuming you are not engaged in insider trading, you cannot possibly know, but will affect your stock price. A classic case is a drug company working on a new drug. If approved for sale it could result in massive profits. If the FDA rejects it, there could be massive losses. The investor has no way of knowing, but if he buys the stock and the drug was approved, he is likely to say that he had studied the situation and decided it was a good purchase. If he buys, and the drug is rejected, that was bad luck.

In some cases, it's even more random than that. It's literally random. Company profits can fluctuate due to weather, natural disasters, or untimely deaths of important employees, not to mention unforeseen political developments, sudden appearances of competing technologies and a host of other factors that no one could reasonably predict. There's plenty of luck involved in investing.

This affects our friends the CEOs as well. When those random factors work in his favor, it's because of his good stewardship of the company. When they work against him, there was no way he could have known that would happen. (I googled C. Mike Armstrong after I mentioned him. His utter failure at AT&T was beyond his control, as was his lackluster performance at Comcast. And his stewardship of Hughes? A success, of course. He came in at a difficult time and although the company's value plummeted and the company itself ceased to exist, he did a fantastic job of shepherding it through tough times.)

My opinion of corporate ladder climbers, including almost all non-founder CEOs, is actually worse than that. My observation is that not only do they take credit for good luck and deny responsibility for bad luck, they actually take credit for others' success and lay blame for their own failures on their subordinates. In 30 years of observations from the cubicles, I've seen it again and again.
 
I think the question to ask is what factors caused the average CEO salary, as measured against the average worker salary, to rise so dramatically starting in the 1980s? For a long time CEOs were perfectly able to run companies being paid far less than today compared to the average worker's pay.
 
I think the question to ask is what factors caused the average CEO salary, as measured against the average worker salary, to rise so dramatically starting in the 1980s? For a long time CEOs were perfectly able to run companies being paid far less than today compared to the average worker's pay.

The MIT paper I linked to earlier covers a lot of different research areas, and apparently according to them the matter is unsettled and could use more research.
 
But it is. Of course, it isn't a pure game of chance, like Roulette, but it has chance elements that come in two forms.

First, it's a game of incomplete information, which is just like a game of chance from the player's perspective. To illustrate the difference, consider a player playing Stratego. Your opponent has a piece next to your flag, and he is obviously going to move there. You have a piece next to two concealed pieces. You know that one is a flag, and one is a bomb, but you don't know which one. It's your move. Depending on which you pick, you will either win the game or lose the game, but you have no information on which to make the choice. You pick one and hope for the best.

Of course, an interesting phenomenon then occurs. if the player guesses correctly, and wins the game, he is very likely to say that he contemplated his opponent's psychological state and decided he was more likely to put his flag in that spot than in the other spot. If the player picks the bomb, he is likely to say there was nothing he could do. He just lost because of random failures.

In the stock market, lots of unknown scenarios are going on behind the scenes that, assuming you are not engaged in insider trading, you cannot possibly know, but will affect your stock price. A classic case is a drug company working on a new drug. If approved for sale it could result in massive profits. If the FDA rejects it, there could be massive losses. The investor has no way of knowing, but if he buys the stock and the drug was approved, he is likely to say that he had studied the situation and decided it was a good purchase. If he buys, and the drug is rejected, that was bad luck.

In some cases, it's even more random than that. It's literally random. Company profits can fluctuate due to weather, natural disasters, or untimely deaths of important employees, not to mention unforeseen political developments, sudden appearances of competing technologies and a host of other factors that no one could reasonably predict. There's plenty of luck involved in investing.

This affects our friends the CEOs as well. When those random factors work in his favor, it's because of his good stewardship of the company. When they work against him, there was no way he could have known that would happen. (I googled C. Mike Armstrong after I mentioned him. His utter failure at AT&T was beyond his control, as was his lackluster performance at Comcast. And his stewardship of Hughes? A success, of course. He came in at a difficult time and although the company's value plummeted and the company itself ceased to exist, he did a fantastic job of shepherding it through tough times.)

My opinion of corporate ladder climbers, including almost all non-founder CEOs, is actually worse than that. My observation is that not only do they take credit for good luck and deny responsibility for bad luck, they actually take credit for others' success and lay blame for their own failures on their subordinates. In 30 years of observations from the cubicles, I've seen it again and again.
Don't forget, schmoozing can be an area for skill application.:D
 
But it is. Of course, it isn't a pure game of chance, like Roulette, but it has chance elements that come in two forms.

First, it's a game of incomplete information, which is just like a game of chance from the player's perspective. To illustrate the difference, consider a player playing Stratego. Your opponent has a piece next to your flag, and he is obviously going to move there. You have a piece next to two concealed pieces. You know that one is a flag, and one is a bomb, but you don't know which one. It's your move. Depending on which you pick, you will either win the game or lose the game, but you have no information on which to make the choice. You pick one and hope for the best.

Of course, an interesting phenomenon then occurs. if the player guesses correctly, and wins the game, he is very likely to say that he contemplated his opponent's psychological state and decided he was more likely to put his flag in that spot than in the other spot. If the player picks the bomb, he is likely to say there was nothing he could do. He just lost because of random failures.

In the stock market, lots of unknown scenarios are going on behind the scenes that, assuming you are not engaged in insider trading, you cannot possibly know, but will affect your stock price. A classic case is a drug company working on a new drug. If approved for sale it could result in massive profits. If the FDA rejects it, there could be massive losses. The investor has no way of knowing, but if he buys the stock and the drug was approved, he is likely to say that he had studied the situation and decided it was a good purchase. If he buys, and the drug is rejected, that was bad luck.

In some cases, it's even more random than that. It's literally random. Company profits can fluctuate due to weather, natural disasters, or untimely deaths of important employees, not to mention unforeseen political developments, sudden appearances of competing technologies and a host of other factors that no one could reasonably predict. There's plenty of luck involved in investing.

No, not really.

The scenarios you describe might apply to traders. I'm an investor.

If I invest in Coke today, sure, they might introduce a new soda tomorrow that is a big hit and share prices rise 30% over the next 6 months. It could also be a huge dud, and share prices might drop 30% over the next 6 months. But over a period of 20-30 years, it doesn't matter. They'll have plenty of hits and plenty of bombs, and as long as the hits out number the bombs, the share price should reflect that over the long term. Same for the drug company.

All I care about, in the example of Coke, is how many cans of Coke they sell today, at what price, and what has the sales trend been and do I think that trend will continue, increase or decrease (if it's the latter, of course, I don't invest). I look at management - has it been a well run company, in general, over the past 100+ years. How much debt do they have? What is their return on investment? Do they pay a dividend? If so, how much? Is it too little? Too much? Do I even need a dividend, or would I rather they reinvest that money into operations. What price is it being sold at today? Is it fairly priced? If so, maybe wait or look for something else on sale. Undervalued? By how much? If it's a screaming buy, then load up. If not, maybe buy a smaller amount. Overvalued? I think everyone knows the answer to that.

As far as information goes, I have complete financial information up until the current quarter. I also have access to newspapers to find out what's been going on since the last 10Q or 10K was filed. Investing in a business like Coke (or any number of others) is not even remotely like gambling.
 
You mean it was a serious question? Wow. :boggled:

Sure was. Over what period of time would you say it is not a game, with what selection of stocks? In the post above, you say 20-30 years (new goalposts). If the company you pick no longer exists in 20-30 years by some chance, is that because of your skill in investing, or by some factor of chance?
 
Investing in a business like Coke (or any number of others) is not even remotely like gambling.

And you will keep telling yourself that as long as your returns are above average.

(And most stock pickers have something in common with gamblers. They tend to overestimate their returns.)
 
Two additional thoughts:

If you read about stocks, whether in popular press books or texts on corporate finance, you will read about risk, and how to manage risk, and how to factor risk in to evaluating the fair price of securities, including stocks.

Assuming that all that talk about risk is meaningful, can anyone deny that there is no random element in the stock market? Randomness is what creates risk. It goes against not just conventional wisdom, but the very foundation of investment theory, to deny that there is an element of chance when investing in stocks.

Second, one of the random events I mentioned was the untimely demise of a key employee. In many cases, that key employee would be a CEO. Surely that could affect stock price, could it not? And surely that's a random event, is it not? Steve Jobs getting pancreatic cancer was a random event that affected Apple's future. So, clearly, random events can and do affect the stock market.

And, if it's not the case, then surely CEOs are overpaid. If their sudden untimely death doesn't have an impact on company profits and/or company stock price, why do people think those guys are worth so much money?
 
Last edited:
No, not really.

The scenarios you describe might apply to traders. I'm an investor.

If I invest in Coke today, sure, they might introduce a new soda tomorrow that is a big hit and share prices rise 30% over the next 6 months. It could also be a huge dud, and share prices might drop 30% over the next 6 months. But over a period of 20-30 years, it doesn't matter. They'll have plenty of hits and plenty of bombs, and as long as the hits out number the bombs, the share price should reflect that over the long term. Same for the drug company.

All I care about, in the example of Coke, is how many cans of Coke they sell today, at what price, and what has the sales trend been and do I think that trend will continue, increase or decrease (if it's the latter, of course, I don't invest). I look at management - has it been a well run company, in general, over the past 100+ years. How much debt do they have? What is their return on investment? Do they pay a dividend? If so, how much? Is it too little? Too much? Do I even need a dividend, or would I rather they reinvest that money into operations. What price is it being sold at today? Is it fairly priced? If so, maybe wait or look for something else on sale. Undervalued? By how much? If it's a screaming buy, then load up. If not, maybe buy a smaller amount. Overvalued? I think everyone knows the answer to that.

As far as information goes, I have complete financial information up until the current quarter. I also have access to newspapers to find out what's been going on since the last 10Q or 10K was filed. Investing in a business like Coke (or any number of others) is not even remotely like gambling.


So your investments have never lost value due to bad luck?

From the point of view of the investor it really is just a biased random number generator. Even if one's in the (almost impossible) position of knowing everything about the company in which one is investing there can be factors that it's utterly impossible for one to know, a competitors new product or an unknown environmental impact of one's product or any one of a thousand different things that are, to all intents and purposes, random, certainly from the point of view of the investor.


The value of investments may go down as well as up
 
Last edited:

ISF - Join now!

Every member here is approved by hand. No bots, no spam, just people who care about evidence and honest debate.

Membership is free!

Create your free account

Back
Top Bottom