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Continuation Part 10: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

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RW said:
Hi Machiavelli,
Since you know Dr. Patrizia Stefanoni personally,

I was talking about Patrizia Moretti, the mother of Federico Aldrovandi.


Thanks for the correct info Machiavelli,
Too bad I was wrong, it would be nice if you could ask Dr. Patrizia Stefanoni about the seminal fluid stains she speaks to her lab assistant(?) Alessa about testing. I wonder where the results are?
 
The relatively early time of death also is supported by the fact that she did not try to call her mother again and that she does not seem to have settled for the evening. If the Italian police had not destroyed her hard drive, might be able to see if she had turned on her laptop.


Hi DesertFox,
I read this the other day, from, yep, old Perugia Shock,
it seems some data was retrieved from Miss Kercher's laptop.
Remember also that a photo shows Meredith's laptop open a little bit, I wonder if it was on?:

Saturday, April 5, 2008
Get-together at Claudia's
(updated)

All the parties were invited to Gip Claudia Matteini's this morning: Pm Mignini, all the lawyers of all three suspects and the Kercher family's legal representative Francesco Maresca.
The occasion was the acquisition of evidence (incidente probatorio) through the hearing of CNR expert Massimo Bernaschi on Meredith's, Raffaele's and Amanda's laptops (Raffaele's was the one where he was doing his thesis not the one where he watched Amelie, which is still being studied in the States).
Prof. Bernaschi explained that he wasn't initially able to start the laptops because someone had shocked them by giving them too strong an electric power surge.
He could easily recover the content of Meredith's and Raffaele's computers, while for Amanda's most data was lost.
So anyone hoping for a list of the lovers of the Dark Lady from Seattle, with pictures and detailed descriptions of performances, will be disappointed.

By the way, now the content of the laptops is available for the parties, but it seems that there's no smoking guns inside. Only university stuff. In Raffaele's there was the developing of a program for school management. For Meredith some files about Dante Alighieri. Almost a prediction of the Inferno she was going to go through.

At least it was a nice get-together, this morning, for all the group. These are the moments that make life worthwhile.

But now there's another giallo. Who gave that shock to the computers?
_____________________________________________________________________________________

Just thinking out loud here,
I wonder why there were no files ever found on Raffaele Sollicito's computer that allowed him to read up on "How to remove your DNA from a bloody murder crime scene, while leaving the others guys DNA all over the place"?

Just some University stuff about developing a program for school management?
Hmmmm...
 
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This is one is another that I don’t know where you got it from; another made up statement. Definitely Patrizia Stefanoni has a PhD. I never read her curriculum vitae personally, but I know she worked eight years as an assistant professor at the University of Naples, and you don’t work as an assistant professor if you are not related to a PhD program. I also know she worked with Cortese and Salvatore and also as a biologist at the University Policlinico of Naples. Then she became a chief executive of the Scientific Police in Rome. She is the author of scientific publications, among which the most successful article of the year in genetic science. I am rather sure she has a PhD. I don’t see why should assume she hasn’t.
You ask what specific training to work on a crime scene: I don't know. But I can't reasonably accept the statement that Stefanoni doesn't have a PhD or that she is not a serious scientist.
Especially not from people who praise Vecchiotti, who is obviously guilty of gross professional wrongdoing.



I think you partly misunderstood the point. It is not correct to just say "the prosecution having presented their case", "the burden of proof is on the defense". In fact, there is no difference in principle between common law and civil law system in that the burden of proof is about the accusation thesis. There is no question on this. It is not enough for the prosecution to just "present" their case, they need to bring in what the system would considers legal evidence to their thesis.
The point is that the prosecution on this case did not just present, but actually brought solid evidence.
This is the part that you missed, that you may fail to acknowledge.
When the prosecution case is not just presented bu already proven, supported by solid evidence, and if the evidence is unchallenged, the case is solid and sound and closed.

Now, if the defence wants to bring their own defensive argument, and if they want to do that without challenging the evidence directly, that means: the building of a new argument separete from opposing the prosecution case, such defensive argument - legally called "an alibi" - in order to be effective it must respond to a very high standard, it cannot sustain uncertainities.



Thank you for clarifying the issue re Italian legal system.

Re highlights; So you do not know if she has a PhD but believe she must have one. I can find no record of a dissertation thesis but that does not mean there is not one just not easy to find.

"the most successful article of the year in genetic science"
Reference please. I have previously challenged you on this - certainly not true on citation index. Which year, which paper, how do you define success - in general citation index is what is used.
 
Machiavelli said:
I disagree. You say the fact that she didn't have to store it, and that nobody asked, "it's irrelevant".
I think its not irrelevant at all, I think it's very relevant. In my opinion your position is illogical. And given the context of Italy, would say also quite out-of-context or unrealistic.
The item was stored, with at least some kind of procedure, simply because in a biological laboratory all items have to be stored after a test. Storage is always the first step. I mean also the items that are going to be disposed of, as a first step, are stored. No biological item is 'thrown away' directly. You need an order and you write a legal record when you destroy an item, it's not really immediate. But you need to store it immediately. The bra clasp was 'stored' and remained such simply because nobody ordered it to be destroyed.
Your direct question "why did you store it without precautions", is something you find if you track back the interrogation of Stefanoni in 2008. Her answer was rather simple: "to clean the working place". After tests are complete, the item is stored, because it must be packed and placed away from the working area in ordert to not contaminate other things.
This is what Stefanoni said.

The meaning of "storage" then might be discussed: the bra clasp was not really stored the a way items are stored in order to preserve DNA, because wet or moist items containing DNA that must be preserved are stored in freezers, and the bra clasp was not.

Other things could be said about Italy but let them to another post.


So you need an order to destroy something, but a highly trained scientist, trained by the emminent scientists you described, decides to just clean up and destroy the evidence by her manner of storage? You use the word "logical" frequently. There is a gap here.

We've gone from she doesn't have to store it -- to it is not usually done - to she does store it - but just to clean up the lab in a manner guaranteed to destroy it for evidentiary purposes - even though she needs an order to destroy something. Again, the logic here is sequence I do not follow.


Interesting discussion about storing evidence..
Kind of reminds me of another storage problem:
From old Perugia Shock:

A second surprise we had today was that the blood alcohol count of Meredith went from 0.43 grams/liter to 2.3 grams/liter. Which means from having half a glass of wine or one glass of beer to potentially being in an alcohol-induced coma.

The new results were revealed by a Panorama blog, which obtained them from the consultants of Gip Matteini --Professor Giancarlo Umani Ronchi, Dr Anna Aprile, and Dr Mariano Cingolani-- who repeated the toxicology tests.

We await confirmation because someone here has made a mistake: was it the first lab, the Gip's consultants or the journalist for Panorama?



And this:
Meredith Sobers Up
As I thought, there was a mistake. Nobody said "I made that mistake," but it seems that the blood sample was kept in a container with some residual alcohol, which is why the second analysis was abnormal. So, the rate of 0.43 found by the University of Perugia is confirmed. Meredith was not drunk.


How embarrasing to read that someone put Meredith's blood sample in a alcohol filled container. Someone should have been fired...
 
Assuming that they were able to pull data from Meredeth's hard drive, that likely indicates weak evidence of innocence. If she used her laptop later, there would be record of altered files (there are little files which are always be altered) which would indicate that she was still alive.
 
And the women who shared that last meal with her said that it began around 5:30 or 6 and ended by 7:45 pm, an hour before she left to walk home. They weren't exact, and their testimonies didn't match exactly, just as Amanda and Raffaele could not say for sure what time they ate on what was for everybody an ordinary evening.

Mach has been trying to say that once you have hit the flat end on the right side of the Gauss distribution curve, the chances of the TOD being at 9:15 and 11:15 are equal. His argument is that since 9:15 already puts her gastric activity at the extreme end of the spectrum, it's no stretch at all to say she could just as easily be much farther out.

Just in terms of the mathematics, it is correct to say that the curve is basically a line once you get past a certain point. The question is whether or not that kind of calculation even makes sense in this situation. A young woman ate dinner, finishing somewhere around 7 pm, and then within the next 45 minutes ate dessert. That's the testimony.

She was still alive at 9 pm. Her stomach was full, duodenum empty when she died. What is the most likely TOD? What is the probability that she was still alive at 10? 11?

ETA: Other questions to ask your medicos and mathematicians: Is it certain that the phenomenon of gastric emptying follows a normal distribution? Is there a limiting value for the time at which emptying begins after consuming a meal?

You nailed it Kwill and of course Machiavelli's argument is total nonsense. We are discussing a biological condition not just a statistical oddity. There might be something to Mach's point if there was something extremely unique about Meredith. Such that Meredith was 80 years old and in poor health.

What this shows more than anything is just how bad people are at reconstructing inconsequential events. This is why the British girls contradicted each other, this is why Amanda and Raffaele are not in perfect sync and this is another reason why Nara, Toto and Quintavalle's memories are not to be counted upon.

I ate three times today and if I had to say precisely what time I ate those three meals today, I would fail miserably. I didn't write it down and didn't think there would be a test on it!
 
But you can't delete testimonies like that. This is not a harmless operation in statistic and in logical consequence. How does it happen that two or three witnesses all tell the same false story? Is it probable they get it wrong, and both in the same way? Those witnesses told a consistent story, in which events and timings follow each other, they fit an order. They watched photos and talked about the previous party for a while after dinner. They made an apple pie after a pizza and ate it together, then they went to look at photos together.
It is improbable that all this is wrong. If you chose to believe that they were wrong to such extent, then you are already making some extreme assumption.
You can't escape making improbable assumptions.
And yet, after that, even after you decide to twist and dismiss the testimonies to such extent, still you will find yourself with some extreme value, since 19:30 means more than 90 minutes earlier than she arrived home.

This just demonstrates you do not understand stats. What is your denominator. How many witnesses were interviewed and had a different story? Take the scream. Two witnesses report a scream. How many did not? In the case of the scream, the occupants of the broken down car were nearest and heard no scream. In the case of the older lady who heard the scream acoustics experts opine that it is impossible the scream she heard came from the murder due to direction and distance. There is no identity in the scream, no location, timing uncertain especially given time from event to interview.

So we have 2 witnesses report a scream, we have more who do not report a scream.

You talk about science. The experiments done on the broken window demonstrated that if broken from the inside as alleged by prosecution glass should have fallen outside (which was not observed), if broken from outside the glass distribution matched that found. The prosecution presented no expert testimony to contradict this science. This I find inexplicable. Empirical science presented to the court unopposed by prosecution experts is ignored.

Stafanoni reports the blood stains from the steps outside the flat being cat blood but her laboratory tests show human DNA. There is no record of any human specific blood test being done to exclude human blood. There is no record of cat specific blood test being done (which would not exclude human blood also present). The putative semen sample that Stefanoni was aware of was not tested for DNA. Stefanoni incorrectly reported to the court the amount of MK DNA detected in her laboratory that she attributed to being present on the knife. She makes unique claims that no other forensic scientist accepts that the location of Knox's DNA on the handle of the knife can tell you how she was holding the knife (reference??? my professors would have said), she was disingenuous over the TMB results. She states that she has had no episodes of contamination, but the results available show at least one negative control contaminated by human DNA. She said she utilised international protocols for dealing with multiple alleles on the bra hook, but that was either untrue or she did it incorrectly.
 
Me, too.

For me it's the combination of the full stomach, the testimony of the English women about their meal, and the rest of the evidence inside the cottage that points toward an early TOD. Wet clothes left in the washer. Jacket on. No phone call to mum. Book brought home to study tossed on the bed.

I think she came in, called out a hello, and locked the door behind herself. Rudy was in the large bathroom. He heard her walk to her room and followed her there, probably thinking he could talk his way out of this, at least if the reports about him being the kind of guy who just knows the ladies are going to like him are true.

Instead she freaked and he pulled out his knife. The scene in the room means there was a fight, during which he got more and more enraged. Poor Meredith, man. What a horrible thing.
Machiavelli is a long standing and revered guilter, who constructs all the arguments that the Kercher family and the Italian state rely on.

We must now workshop the following propositions to seek the truth.

1. Rudy Guede killed Meredith at 9pm, as shoeprints handprints and finger prints and the interior of Filomena's room being precisely consistent with a rock hurled with maximum speed from an adjacent car park attest. Rudy Guede was captured on CCTV at times that precede Meredith's arrival home, thus confirming all the above as sensible propositions.

2. Machiavelli has an alternative proposition.
Meredith Kercher presented at her autopsy with statistically impossible separation by time of meal commencement and death, so proposition 1 should be declared invalid. By chance she was a murder victim that was as statistically probable as a 150 (plug in any number) year old human being, so therefore, we must find an alternate actuarial theory to accomodate guilt.

Place your bets.
 
Here is a machine translation of an interview with Patrizia Stefanoni:

"- When did you graduate and what is your current role?
- I graduated in Biology at the Faculty of Science ' University of Naples Federico II, in 1995, now is official engineer of the State Police.
- Can you describe briefly what is your job?
- My qualification is in Police Technical Director Principal Biologist and are employed to Section of Forensic Genetics. In practice, I am of technical investigations carried out on genetic biological traces of various types, found in it at the crime scene. The order in which there is a tendency in repertare a biological trace is to be able to determine the genetic profile of the person who owns the track, through the analysis of genetic polymorphisms known as STR (short tandem repeats). My work consists in 'interpretation genetic data, that is, in reading the genetic profiles and drafting the resulting technical report to be sent to the Authority Judicial that l 'has request.
- You can emphasize the application of knowledge that you acquired during your studies in what you need in your current work experience?
-Sicuramente The 'field of study that I have chosen and the topic of the thesis that I have carried out experimental me with a form mentis for the type of work I do, as well, of course to providing me with a whole range of basic knowledge about them in the years after I built my professionalism. The part of the molecular and genetic studies of my degree course were surely the main tool that I needed to access to the profession.
- In hindsight, what topics would you have liked that you were explained during your course of study?
- I would say without a doubt that treatment, although general, the principles of genetics and forensic analytical techniques connected to it would have been completed to the type of studies that have addressed. Today I know that something has changed, and I have news that several degree courses in various universities provide some their programs of study with a section devoted to the basics of study of human genetic profiles for personal identification."

Thanks Chris, perhaps you can ref original for Mach?

I note Stafanoni herself does not claim a PhD. She regrets the lack of forensic science in her Biology degree. She is employed to carry out laboratory genetic studies. She is not employed to do crime scene investigation. She does not claim training in crime scene investigation.

Re papers, most seem to be congress reports, not original research, all in the same journal - available as pdf in some cases but they say little of interest.
 
This just demonstrates you do not understand stats. What is your denominator. How many witnesses were interviewed and had a different story? Take the scream. Two witnesses report a scream. How many did not? In the case of the scream, the occupants of the broken down car were nearest and heard no scream. In the case of the older lady who heard the scream acoustics experts opine that it is impossible the scream she heard came from the murder due to direction and distance. There is no identity in the scream, no location, timing uncertain especially given time from event to interview.

So we have 2 witnesses report a scream, we have more who do not report a scream.

You talk about science. The experiments done on the broken window demonstrated that if broken from the inside as alleged by prosecution glass should have fallen outside (which was not observed), if broken from outside the glass distribution matched that found. The prosecution presented no expert testimony to contradict this science. This I find inexplicable. Empirical science presented to the court unopposed by prosecution experts is ignored.

Stafanoni reports the blood stains from the steps outside the flat being cat blood but her laboratory tests show human DNA. There is no record of any human specific blood test being done to exclude human blood. There is no record of cat specific blood test being done (which would not exclude human blood also present). The putative semen sample that Stefanoni was aware of was not tested for DNA. Stefanoni incorrectly reported to the court the amount of MK DNA detected in her laboratory that she attributed to being present on the knife. She makes unique claims that no other forensic scientist accepts that the location of Knox's DNA on the handle of the knife can tell you how she was holding the knife (reference??? my professors would have said), she was disingenuous over the TMB results. She states that she has had no episodes of contamination, but the results available show at least one negative control contaminated by human DNA. She said she utilised international protocols for dealing with multiple alleles on the bra hook, but that was either untrue or she did it incorrectly.


Hi Planigale,
I've wondered about the cats blood story for years.
Finally saw the crime scene video from the downstairs apartment,
and I found it odd that only Stefano's bed was unmade, and had blood on it.
Like Meredith's bed too.

But none of the other guys and gals had blood on their beds
nor were the bedding removed or tossed into a heap.

I'm uploading a few pix which show Stefano's bed, and what is supposed to be cats blood on it.
The drops are like what we see on the stairway down to the apartment,
but what about the blood stains seen in the 3rd photo?

They sure look different than what I'd think a cat would leave.
Thoughts anyone?

picture.php


picture.php


picture.php



The blood on the 2 creases, pictured above, bothers me,
what, did the cat rub up against the crease?

What about the lower stain,
heck it almost looks like part of a knife imprint from the blade...
 
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You nailed it Kwill and of course Machiavelli's argument is total nonsense. We are discussing a biological condition not just a statistical oddity. There might be something to Mach's point if there was something extremely unique about Meredith. Such that Meredith was 80 years old and in poor health.

What this shows more than anything is just how bad people are at reconstructing inconsequential events. This is why the British girls contradicted each other, this is why Amanda and Raffaele are not in perfect sync and this is another reason why Nara, Toto and Quintavalle's memories are not to be counted upon.

I ate three times today and if I had to say precisely what time I ate those three meals today, I would fail miserably. I didn't write it down and didn't think there would be a test on it!

I started to read some gastroparesis etc. papers.
Here's a very preliminary view:

The studies generally use a low-fat meal (egg white, toast) consumed within
10 min. or so. Gastric emptying starts in about 30 to maybe 60 min. (?) in normal subjects and then proceeds rapidly. Meals higher in fat are said to take more time to empty - how much more I haven't found yet. Pizza can be very high in fat - depends on fat in the milk used for the cheese and on toppings. The idea that the probability distribution of initial (or say, initial 10% of stomach volume) emptying times for normals is a simple gaussian seems unsound to me - since the distribution of times cannot start before the meal enters the stomach (t=0). That is, I believe the distribution must be a one-sided or asymmetric curve, and the idea that the tail is relatively long seems entirely non-physiological. That is, if you are normal, in some relatively short time (~ 2 or 2.5 hours?) your stomach MUST start emptying.
 
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Let us try to examine this in reverse
Assume a late time of death, is there any evidence which supports this or contradicts an early time of death?
 
Not just in Italy but I think everywhere judges and attorneys (prosecution and defense) need to be required to take a course in basic forensics. This would at least allow some of the stupidist of the garbage to be weeded out.

Maybe they could read that lone textbook you claim to have read.
 
Interesting discussion about storing evidence..
Kind of reminds me of another storage problem:
From old Perugia Shock:

A second surprise we had today was that the blood alcohol count of Meredith went from 0.43 grams/liter to 2.3 grams/liter. Which means from having half a glass of wine or one glass of beer to potentially being in an alcohol-induced coma.

The new results were revealed by a Panorama blog, which obtained them from the consultants of Gip Matteini --Professor Giancarlo Umani Ronchi, Dr Anna Aprile, and Dr Mariano Cingolani-- who repeated the toxicology tests.

We await confirmation because someone here has made a mistake: was it the first lab, the Gip's consultants or the journalist for Panorama?



And this:
Meredith Sobers Up
As I thought, there was a mistake. Nobody said "I made that mistake," but it seems that the blood sample was kept in a container with some residual alcohol, which is why the second analysis was abnormal. So, the rate of 0.43 found by the University of Perugia is confirmed. Meredith was not drunk.


How embarrasing to read that someone put Meredith's blood sample in a alcohol filled container. Someone should have been fired...

Rather makes you wonder if a similar mistake was made with the DNA samples from the knife and bra clasp?
 
Be sure to show them that the presiding judge - knowing that the victim died with the contents of her last meal still in her stomach - said this:



And the women who shared that last meal with her said that it began around 5:30 or 6 and ended by 7:45 pm, an hour before she left to walk home. They weren't exact, and their testimonies didn't match exactly, just as Amanda and Raffaele could not say for sure what time they ate on what was for everybody an ordinary evening.

Mach has been trying to say that once you have hit the flat end on the right side of the Gauss distribution curve, the chances of the TOD being at 9:15 and 11:15 are equal. His argument is that since 9:15 already puts her gastric activity at the extreme end of the spectrum, it's no stretch at all to say she could just as easily be much farther out.

Just in terms of the mathematics, it is correct to say that the curve is basically a line once you get past a certain point. The question is whether or not that kind of calculation even makes sense in this situation. A young woman ate dinner, finishing somewhere around 7 pm, and then within the next 45 minutes ate dessert. That's the testimony.

She was still alive at 9 pm. Her stomach was full, duodenum empty when she died. What is the most likely TOD? What is the probability that she was still alive at 10? 11?

ETA: Other questions to ask your medicos and mathematicians: Is it certain that the phenomenon of gastric emptying follows a normal distribution? Is there a limiting value for the time at which emptying begins after consuming a meal?
The tail end of a Gaussian distribution is NOT a flat line. The probabilities at two different points in the tail end will not be equal. They may both be very low in comparison to the center of the distribution. But the probability continues to fall of dramatically as you move away from the mean.
 
TOD in this case is not just a dry statistic Mach, in my opinion...

-

Try this simple piece of reasoning. If you are ready to accept "90" as the most likely figure, and you accept a 10% an expected error, in order to be consistent you should not - at the same time - say that "100" would be an unacceptable figure, given that it is only about 10% distant from what you accepted as the "most likely" figure.

The statement "gastric emptying" is a "fairly precise" sceince gets very objectionable when the person declaring it tries to apply "science" while ignoring some elementary principles of statistics.

I see people invoking statistic figures from science about gastric emptying, in order to "accomodate extremes" (according to them). But then what they actually do is to choose a number of values which are in fact extreme figures, at the extreme of average probability and forcing the extreme limits of the given information, as their starting point, and they consider these as the "most likely" figures.

But if these are the "most likely" figures, they also must be at the center of a possible range of tolerance. And the whole previous assumption is undermined; the previous paradigm should be put in discussion, and the new paradigm should be: the given information is we have some values that are surely abnormal or unusual, we have this information for sure (which is more information than what we have in the average generic circumstance), so we have these unfrequent figures for sure, independently from how freqently they occur in the average study; the reasoning so is to be set around the actual information, not on the generic studies and absolute average.
-

WOW! I missed a hell of a discussion last night, but yup, this is the discussion I remember you putting forth a long time ago Mach. Many posters here have already raked you over the coals about this, but as far as I'm concerned, you make a valid point as far as dry statistics go.

The problem is that this case is about more than just dry statistics, in my opinion.

My probability estimations are based on many things, but the three that are the most important to me (and that need to be explained) to make the time of death after 9:30 more probable (to me) are as follows:

If it was just a matter of a time of death issue based on 1) gastric emptying alone, than yes the dry statistical analysis (in your above post) would have some validity, but when you throw in 2) Meredith's last call to her mother, and 3) Rudy's skype call; ALL TOGETHER* they increase the probabilities that death was before 9:30, and any time after that becomes less probable, in my opinion.

Of course, if you don't care what I think (which is your right) than I have no problem with you just ignoring this and moving on with your life.

I know I will,

d

-
ETA: *1) According to Lalli (the one who performed the autopsy) the duodenum had not received any of the gastric juices from the stomach yet, 2) Meredith tried to call her mother just before 9 p.m. (21:00) but was cut off (most likely because of cell tower coverage), which I believe she would have tried again once she got home (which was approximately a couple minutes later), and 3) In Rudy's skype call to his friend while he was in Germany, he said Meredith screamed at 9:20 (21:20).

-
 
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Understanding the Italian judicial system and its dysfunctions is critical to following the odd twists of this case.

The following discussion is based upon an article published in the Washington University Global Studies Law Review, Vol 4, Issue 3 (2005):

The frustrated turn to adversarial procedures in Italy (Italian Criminal Procedure Code of 1988), by Giulio Illuminati, Professor of Criminal Procedure, Head of the Dept. of Law, University of Bologna

Italy has historically relied on an inquisitional judicial system similar to that used in Continental Europe rather than the adversarial system as used in the UK, US, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia. In the inquisitorial system, the judge is not a referee, but the primary seeker of truth; prosecution and defense attorneys have secondary roles. The prosecutor or investigating judge conducts an investigation, gathers the evidence into a file, and presents the file to the judge for use at the trial.

While Italy adopted an adversarial system by law (changes to the Criminal Procedure Code) in 1988, there was resistance to the new system from the Constitutional Court and elements of the judiciary. In the 1988 reform, only parts of the prosecution file was presented to the judge, to enable the prosecution and defense the role of presenting opposing lines of evidence at trial to the judge unbiased by full knowledge of the prosecution file and emphasizing cross-examination. The arguments against these changes by the prosecutors and judges was that it was inefficient and denied the judges the full power to seek truth, as they understood it. Opposition, including changes forced by the Constitutional Court, was such that the adversarial system was abandoned in 1992.

The Italian parliament, [perhaps responding to ECHR judgements], passed new reform laws starting in 1997 and, in 1999, a new Constitutional Law, modifying Article 111 of the Constitution to specify, among other new provisions, that evidence in criminal cases may only be heard in front of the parties, with cross-examination allowed, and before an impartial judge. Also added was the provision that guilt can not be proven by declarations of an accuser who had not undergone cross-examination by the defense.
....

Some of my own interpretation:
Some of the Italian judges continue to act, in part, as though the inquisitorial system were still in place. They assume themselves to be extensions of the prosecution, accepting the case file and discounting the defense. Since they are "seeking the truth", they see no reason not to invent their own "truths" which others see as speculation. Thus, they have no issue with plausible guilt rather than guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. The judges thinking may be: If the defendant weren't guilty in some way, why would they be in my court; guilt, not innocence is presumed in this dysfunction of the inquisitorial system. And if the CSC orders a finding of guilt, so much "truer" this guilt must be; evidence is simply to be cherry-picked to support creative speculation to produce a seemingly but falsely "reasoned" motivation report.

Again, my interpretation (not stated by Professor Illuminati):

The changes in Italian law & constitution were obviously motivated by ECHR rulings and the E Convention of HR. The inquisitorial system did not allow significant confrontation (cross-examination) of witness, and relied too much on the judgement of the prosecutor and judge - tending to the presumption of guilt. One ECHR case at the time changes were made is Luca v. Italy, ECHR final judgement 27-02-2001. The following is from the Netherlands Institute of Human Rights:

Publication: 2001-II
Title: Lucà v. Italy
Application No: 33354/96
Respondent: Italy
Referred by:
Date of reference by Commission:
Date of reference by State:
Date of Judgment: 27-02-2001
Articles: 6-1
6-3-d
41 Conclusion: Violation of article 6-1
Violation of article 6-3-d
Compensation awarded
Keywords: FAIR TRIAL / EXAMINATION OF WITNESSES

Summary:
Article 6(1) ECHR: Right to a fair hearing; Article 6(3)(d) ECHR: Right to hear witnesses

Facts:
The Criminal Court sentenced the applicant to eight years and four months' imprisonment for drug-trafficking. His conviction, which was upheld by the court of appeal in November 1994 and by the Court of Cassation in November 1995 was based solely on statements made to the public prosecutor during the investigations by a co-accused in connected proceedings. Despite the fact that neither the applicant nor his representative were ever given an opportunity to examine the maker of the statements, either at the trial (the co-accused exercising his right to remain silent in accordance with Article 210 of the Italian Code of Criminal Procedure), or at any other stage of the proceedings, the statements were nonetheless admitted in evidence and formed the main basis for the applicant's conviction. Article 513 of the Code of Criminal Procedure, as worded at the material time and construed by the Italian Constitutional Court in its judgment no. 254 of 1992 (which contained no references to the guarantees of a fair trial set out in article 6 or to the criteria established by the Court's case-law in that connection) enabled the trial court to use statements made by a co-accused in connected proceedings where the co-accused had exercised his right to remain silent and refused to repeat them at the hearing, even if the person against whom the statements were apt to be used had been given no opportunity of examining the maker at any stage in the proceedings. In that connection, the Court referred to the amendment of article 111 of the Italian Constitution that had been adopted after the events in issue. It noted that by virtue of Law no. 35 of 25 February 2000, which set out the extent to which the amended Article 111 of the Constitution applied to pending proceedings, the former rules continued under certain circumstances to apply to such proceedings.

Complaints:
The applicant complained that the criminal proceedings against him had been unfair and alleged that he had been convicted on the basis of statements made to the public prosecutor, without being given an opportunity to examine the maker of the statements, N., or to have him examined. He relied on article 6(1) and (3)(d).

Legal considerations:
Article 6(1) jo 6(3)(d)
As a general rule, paragraphs 1 and 3(d) of article 6 required that the defendant be given an adequate and proper opportunity to challenge and question a witness against him, either when he made his statement or at a later stage. In that regard, the fact that the depositions had been made, as here, by a co-accused rather than by a witness was of no relevance, since the term "witness" had an "autonomous" meaning in the Convention system. Thus, where a deposition could serve to a material degree as the basis for a conviction, then, irrespective of whether it had been made by a witness in the strict sense or by a co-accused, it constituted evidence for the prosecution to which the guarantees provided by article 6(1) and (3)(d) applied (on that point, the Court therefore did not consider pertinent the Court of Cassation's reason, based on a literal construction of article 6, for rejecting the applicant's ground of appeal based on that provision). As the Court had stated on a number of occasions, it could prove necessary in certain circumstances to refer to depositions made during the investigative stage (in particular, where a witness refused to repeat his deposition in public owing to fears for his safety, a not infrequent occurrence in trials concerning Mafia-type organisations). As such, their admission in evidence would not in itself contravene article 6(1) and (3)(d). However, where a conviction was based solely or to a decisive degree on depositions that had been made by a person whom the accused had had no opportunity to examine or to have examined, whether during the investigation or at the trial, the rights of the defence were restricted to an extent that was incompatible with the guarantees provided by article 6. Following its case-law on the subject, the Court said that it was furthermore clear that the cross-examination of prosecution witnesses in the wide sense of that term under the Convention system should necessarily always take place at the trial. Although the evidence, including the evidence for the prosecution, normally had to be examined at the hearing, certain special circumstances such as those referred to above could make it difficult, or even impossible, for depositions made at an earlier date to be repeated at a public hearing. In such cases, article 6 required only that the accused should have been given an adequate and proper opportunity to challenge the evidence concerned, even before trial. The Court also implicitly rejected the Government's argument based on the need to protect the right to remain silent of a co-accused called to repeat at a public hearing statements he had made previously. It was not the right to remain silent that was in issue. The co-accused retained his right to remain silent and not to incriminate himself. However, if he exercised that right, as in the case before the Court, his previous depositions could only be used against other persons as material evidence of guilt if the accused had had the opportunity of cross-examining him at some stage in the proceedings. In the case before the Court, the domestic courts had convicted the applicant solely on the basis of statements made by a co-accused before the trial in connected proceedings and neither the applicant nor his lawyer had been given an opportunity at any stage of the proceedings to question him. The Court therefore concluded that the applicant had not been given an adequate and proper opportunity to contest the statements on which he had been found guilty.

Article 41
The Court considered that it could not speculate on what the outcome of the proceedings would have been if they had complied with article 6(1) and (3)(d). It therefore made an award for non-pecuniary damage only. The applicant was also awarded a lump sum for the costs he had incurred before the Court.
 
Be sure to show them that the presiding judge - knowing that the victim died with the contents of her last meal still in her stomach - said this:



And the women who shared that last meal with her said that it began around 5:30 or 6 and ended by 7:45 pm, an hour before she left to walk home. They weren't exact, and their testimonies didn't match exactly, just as Amanda and Raffaele could not say for sure what time they ate on what was for everybody an ordinary evening.

Mach has been trying to say that once you have hit the flat end on the right side of the Gauss distribution curve, the chances of the TOD being at 9:15 and 11:15 are equal. His argument is that since 9:15 already puts her gastric activity at the extreme end of the spectrum, it's no stretch at all to say she could just as easily be much farther out.

Just in terms of the mathematics, it is correct to say that the curve is basically a line once you get past a certain point. The question is whether or not that kind of calculation even makes sense in this situation. A young woman ate dinner, finishing somewhere around 7 pm, and then within the next 45 minutes ate dessert. That's the testimony.

She was still alive at 9 pm. Her stomach was full, duodenum empty when she died. What is the most likely TOD? What is the probability that she was still alive at 10? 11?

ETA: Other questions to ask your medicos and mathematicians: Is it certain that the phenomenon of gastric emptying follows a normal distribution? Is there a limiting value for the time at which emptying begins after consuming a meal?

The discussion on the normal distribution is just sophistry on the part of Machiavelli.

It is obvious that the distribution is not normal. It cannot be normal, otherwise we would have negative values with probability > 0, which is obviously nonsense. It is obvious that there must be a physical limit for the time of gastric emptying, otherwise it would be impossible for humans to eat more than one meal (ever?). It just so happens that this limit is about 1 hour and a half. I mean, most people start to get hungry about 2 to 3 hours after a meal, when the stomach becomes empty or almost empty.
 
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