Continuation Part 10: Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito

[Planigale]

Planigale, since you have been party to the debate in which you suggested size of meal should be considered with TOD, how do you see this link I posted today in that context?

Here is another paper, that discusses gastric emptying for pre op, but addresses another issue that has been raised, size of meal.

In contrast, the gastric emptying curve for solids is linear20,21 (Fig. 2). Gastric emptying of solid food starts approximately 1 h after a meal. Within 2 h, approximately 50% of the solid food ingested is passed to the duodenum. The gastric emptying of solids is independent of the amount of food ingested but dependent on the caloric density of the meal.

http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?...72007000400004

I am quite unable to find any research that allows for Meredith's autopsy to be consistent with a meal anywhere near two hours before her death, yet one hour to 90 minutes seems correct.

Obviously I am interested in your take as a scientist.
This is important material.

The longer from the time of the meal the more likely it is that gastric emptying will have been initiated. The corollary is that ToD gets progressively less likely.

The papers are all laboratory tests. Do not take the figures too literally. Different methodology gives different results. Different definitions are used; T lag does not measure time to first gastric emptying but usually to a small but definite emptying e.g. 10% of test meal. The tests are more precise (giving reproducible values) than accurate. A doctor does not need to know if normal gastric emptying is 30 or 45 minutes. What is needed is a measure that maps to gastric emptying, can separate abnormal gastric emptying from normal, and shows improvement with treatment (or not). None of these values are strictly applicable to hungover 20 yr olds probably with cannabinoids in the blood, who have had a late night, and eaten pizza and apple crumble (for instance if you use an oat topping as I do, oats delay gastric emptying). I suspect the normal value for gastric emptying is prolonged as compared with these papers, but probably only by about 40 minutes in terms of median values, this will be reflected in a shift of the upper limit. My value of 40 minutes is from looking at the range of values that interventions or drugs have on gastric emptying. In contrast despite what some argue there is little evidence that psychological stress has much impact on gastric emptying, so the argument that in some way MK was tortured by AK and RS from 21.00 but not killed until 23.00 is scientific nonsense.

What we can take from this is a ball park figure, an upper limit. Some people argue the published time to gastric emptying is incompatible with the time of the meal, and a death after 21.00 and therefore the gastric / duodenal contents evidence should be ignored. In fact I think this actually makes it more useful since we know we are near the upper limit of time to gastric emptying in a real world situation; I think ToD was between 21.00 and 21.30. This fits with the one eye witness RG, and telephone data.

The important thing is that there are several circumstantial pieces of evidence that support one another.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

two definitions of the lag time in gastric emptying

Planigale,

Some studies define t(lag) as the time it take to reach a maximal rate of gastric emptying, as I posted in a comment several weeks ago.

 

[AmyStrange]

-

The longer from the time of the meal the more likely it is that gastric emptying will have been initiated. The corollary is that ToD gets progressively less likely.

The papers are all laboratory tests. Do not take the figures too literally. Different methodology gives different results. Different definitions are used; T lag does not measure time to first gastric emptying but usually to a small but definite emptying e.g. 10% of test meal. The tests are more precise (giving reproducible values) than accurate. A doctor does not need to know if normal gastric emptying is 30 or 45 minutes. What is needed is a measure that maps to gastric emptying, can separate abnormal gastric emptying from normal, and shows improvement with treatment (or not). None of these values are strictly applicable to hungover 20 yr olds probably with cannabinoids in the blood, who have had a late night, and eaten pizza and apple crumble (for instance if you use an oat topping as I do, oats delay gastric emptying). I suspect the normal value for gastric emptying is prolonged as compared with these papers, but probably only by about 40 minutes in terms of median values, this will be reflected in a shift of the upper limit. My value of 40 minutes is from looking at the range of values that interventions or drugs have on gastric emptying. In contrast despite what some argue there is little evidence that psychological stress has much impact on gastric emptying, so the argument that in some way MK was tortured by AK and RS from 21.00 but not killed until 23.00 is scientific nonsense.

What we can take from this is a ball park figure, an upper limit. Some people argue the published time to gastric emptying is incompatible with the time of the meal, and a death after 21.00 and therefore the gastric / duodenal contents evidence should be ignored. In fact I think this actually makes it more useful since we know we are near the upper limit of time to gastric emptying in a real world situation; I think ToD was between 21.00 and 21.30. This fits with the one eye witness RG, and telephone data.

The important thing is that there are several circumstantial pieces of evidence that support one another.

-

Is the gastric emptying time clock started when the meal starts or when the meal is finished?

I assume your highlighted part is in reference to Rudy's Skype call, where he says Meredith screamed at 9:20,. This, the duodenum being empty, and Meredith's last call to her Mom, and her not trying again when she got home where she knew it would finally go through, all these things combined together is why I believe it's highly improbable that Meredith was killed after 9:30, in my opinion,

d

-

 

[Dan O.]

The poster using the Machiavelli account (only one person) never found any explanation that would be reasonable, and make the finding of Sollecito's DNA on innocent grounds be considered probable.

Then you have heard the arguments and can articulate why you don't consider them probable. And speaking of probable, what is the probable time and circumstance of how you believe Raffaele's DNA got on that clasp hook.

 

[acbytesla]

Protocols in reality must be made compatible with many practical limitations (time, supplies, etc.). Real life is often imperfect, you can't expect ideal conditions as if they were a practical standard or reasonable expectation. You need to make the best of what you have, you can't always ask for the best.

Wrong again Mach. IN the computer world, we say "GIGO"...or garbage in, garbage out. Taking proper precautions ensure that results are good. It was obvious that when collecting the bra clasp, that Stefanoni and her team didn't have a clue on how to properly collect evidence. (I do have to say, it was so nice of them to record their incompetence).


Now, if Stefanoni and her team managed to collect many many samples of Raffaele's DNA all over Meredith's bedroom, their incompetence may not make much difference. But they didn't. It was a "one off" result that included the alleles of multiple males. To say that this wasn't the result of contamination without multiple tests is flat out unreasonable. Even the tech from the RIS said that.

Also, practical constraints are one thing, but Stefanoni's incompetence issues go far beyond that. You can't justify Stef's storing the bra clasp in a liquid buffer, and you really can't justify Stefanoni's refusal to disclose the electronic files to back up her work.

Moreover, Stefanoni is not even the person in charge of the crime scene.
What matters instead is something else. The question to answer about the DNA findings (which is not the most important evidence in the trial anyway) is how did Sollecito's DNA come to the bra clasp.

Seriously? the DNA is not the most important part of the trial anyway? Then what is?

If there is any reasonably explanation why the specific finding of Sollecito's profile on the metal hook should be a probable event, without he taking part to the murder.

We really DON'T know that Raffaele's DNA was EVER on the bra hook. Stefanoni, did not repeat her test and confirmed the result. She did not provide the electronic data to back up her so called results and she stored the clasp in such a way that no one could ever retest and confirm her work. It is just as possible, that sloppy lab work resulted in contamination of the test tube that produced a positive profile of Raffaele's DNA and 4 other male alleles.

Attempts to attack Stefanoni are just mean attempts to divert the discourse, and to try to go around the question. No ranting of protocols and standards nor pretexts or specious unjustified insults against forensic scientists will change the finding and the point to answer: Sollecito's DNA is on the bra clasp, no alleged protocol breach would offer a probable alternative explanation, even if they dipped the bra clasp in a bucket of mud before collecting it that would not be helpful to Sollecito's defense: its DNA would still demand to be explained.

Seriously Machiavelli, this is just a clueless rant. I don't attack or criticize people to be mean. Stefanoni's gross incompetence resulted in two innocent people needlessly spending 4 years of their young lives behind bars. The emotional and financial toll of this travesty has been immense and maybe the person most responsible for it is Stefanoni. People make mistakes. Me, you, everyone, but this isn't spilled milk, this is the lives of many human beings. I can understand Stefanoni making mistakes. That is the reason good protocols DEMAND repeatablility.

Personally, I believe Stefanoni faked her results, but I can't prove that. But corruption is not required, just human error and the refusal to acknowledge it.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

the nature of the wounds

I always read that as 40 different types of wounds; scratches, bruises, cuts etc. Albeit at least 2 of the 40 wounds ended in a slow painful death.

CoulsdonUK,

It is my understanding that Meredith lost consciousness died relatively quickly, not that this was anything other than a brutal, terrible crime. Do you have any information to the contrary?

 

[AmyStrange]

-

So, you don't understand what someone is saying and your course of action is to assume that it doesn't matter rather than trying to understand.

Interesting.

-

Hopefully h/ she doesn't have as much of a problem with the NENCINI REPORT. That one's a doozy for those who are reading comprehensively challenged, but I have faith in him/ her.

By the way, have you read it (or parts of it) and what did you think of what you read?

d

-

 

[MDDVS]

These people are obviously not after the truth or knowledge. They prefer to use pseudo-logic and walls of text to defend their pre-determined conclusions. One just needs to read nencini's report or the Supremes court's to realize this.

I'd just like they to realize that their efforts are transparent and the more this case drags on the more people around the world will understand this. And yes, it is important to understand that it's not only americans here so there's no need for the anti-American tirades we see here from time to time. However they do help by showing how a misguided xenophobic anti-americanism is an important factor in this case.

 

[Desert Fox]

Seems to be a very wide and temporally confusing case with the 'Duke lacrosse case', 'The Memphis Three case' and Satan often being mentioned as having something to do with it.

Human Nature is human nature and one can look at other cases at how justice can go wrong. We can look at a number of similar cases where the police, prosecutors, and judges prosecute an innocent party.

On the converse, yes murders occur but as far as I know there has never been a similar crime to what Amanda and Raff are being accused of doing. Perhaps you can point at an actual similar crime?

 

[MDDVS]

Similar to nencini's or massei's version?

 

[Desert Fox]

Similar to nencini's or massei's version?

To be honest, either. I started with the assumption that she was probably guilty and is was something like the Diane Zemora case but it was nothing like that.

 

[AmyStrange]

-

These people are obviously not after the truth or knowledge. They prefer to use pseudo-logic and walls of text to defend their pre-determined conclusions. One just needs to read nencini's report or the Supremes court's to realize this.

I'd just like they to realize that their efforts are transparent and the more this case drags on the more people around the world will understand this. And yes, it is important to understand that it's not only americans here so there's no need for the anti-American tirades we see here from time to time. However they do help by showing how a misguided xenophobic anti-americanism is an important factor in this case.

-

Although I think you make a couple good points m, I think Planigale made an interesting point in his/ her post HERE about how the Italian court system works.

It's quite an interesting read, and I tend to agree with him/ her, and it actually helped me to understand where Mach is coming from in some of his/ her post.

If it's true that the defense has to prove the prosecution's case wrong, rather than prove reasonable doubt, I can certainly understand why Nencini favors explanations for guilt over innocence or that the defense has to prove contamination instead of just prove it's possible.

That don't mean I agree with the way the Italian system works or Nencini's REPORT, but I certainly understand it better than I did before,

d

-

 

[Desert Fox]

Although I think you make a couple good points m, I think Planigale made an interesting point in his/ her post HERE about how the Italian court system works.

It's quite an interesting read, and I tend to agree with him/ her, and it actually helped me to understand where Mach is coming from in some of his/ her post.

If it's true that the defense has to prove the prosecution's case wrong, rather than prove reasonable doubt, I can certainly understand why Nencini favors explanations for guilt over innocence or that the defense has to prove contamination instead of just prove it's possible.

That don't mean I agree with the way the Italian system works or Nencini's REPORT, but I certainly understand it better than I did before,
-

In the US, even with our imperfections, it is not the job of the defense to refute the prosecution but the prosecutions job to prove guilt beyond reasonable doubt. As such, I would argue that any extradition would go against the US constitution.

More important might be though that I think it goes against the European Court of Human Rights. Basically, Italy is in violation of their own treaty agreements.

 

[CoulsdonUK]

CoulsdonUK,

It is my understanding that Meredith lost consciousness died relatively quickly, not that this was anything other than a brutal, terrible crime. Do you have any information to the contrary?

Oh that is ok then, right?

Meredith was brutally murdered (relatively quickly) and Raffaele and Amanda are the only remaining defendants awaiting the deliberation of the Italian Supreme Court.

According to Andrea Vogt Raffaele is being sued because of extracts in his book, I wonder how he will prove is accusations regarding Mignini and oh yes the Italian Supreme Court, hang on is this the same Italian Supreme Court that will be deliberating his and Amanda’s involvement in the murder of Meredith Kercher? I wonder how that will work for him?

 

[Desert Fox]

Oh that is ok then, right?

Meredith was brutally murdered (relatively quickly) and Raffaele and Amanda are the only remaining defendants awaiting the deliberation of the Italian Supreme Court.

According to Andrea Vogt Raffaele is being sued because of extracts in his book, I wonder how he will prove is accusations regarding Mignini and oh yes the Italian Supreme Court, hang on is this the same Italian Supreme Court that will be deliberating his and Amanda’s involvement in the murder of Meredith Kercher? I wonder who that will work for him?

There is nothing Raff can do which will not come back to haunt him. . . .If he hid in his home and said nothing, that would also probably be used against him. After all, you might as well throw up your hands.

 

[CoulsdonUK]

There is nothing Raff can do which will not come back to haunt him. . . .If he hid in his home and said nothing, that would also probably be used against him. After all, you might as well throw up your hands.

I highlighted your opening comment for you, nuff (pardon the vernacular) said.

Well It wasn’t smart writing a book attacking the very institution that was then and is now liberating his and Amanda’s possible involvement in Meredith Kercher’s murder. But yea you can throw your hands up.

 

[carbonjam72]

Oh that is ok then, right?
Meredith was brutally murdered (relatively quickly) and Raffaele and Amanda are the only remaining defendants awaiting the deliberation of the Italian Supreme Court.

According to Andrea Vogt Raffaele is being sued because of extracts in his book, I wonder how he will prove is accusations regarding Mignini and oh yes the Italian Supreme Court, hang on is this the same Italian Supreme Court that will be deliberating his and Amanda’s involvement in the murder of Meredith Kercher? I wonder how that will work for him?

Is it necessary to say murder is not alright? Has anyone made that claim?

The issue is that Amanda and Raf had nothing to do with that tragic crime, no matter how much you seem to wish or hope they did.

The physical evidence precludes the participation of anyone else along with Rudy Guede.

Is false imprisonment ok? IS perjury on the witness stand OK? Is hiding the raw DNA data OK, the underpinning of the only claimed evidence, is that all oK? Because all that really did happen - unlike your fairy beliefs that Amanda and Raf may be involved.

It should be a crime to repeat these lies. Maybe they did it? Grow up.

 

[Desert Fox]

I highlighted your opening comment for you, nuff (pardon the vernacular) said.

Well It wasn’t smart writing a book attacking the very institution that was then and is now liberating his and Amanda’s possible involvement in Meredith Kercher’s murder. But yea you can throw your hands up.

If I am going to be crucified (figuratively) no matter what I do, sometimes I might as well do what I think is right.

 

[sept79]

.
.
.

According to Andrea Vogt Raffaele is being sued because of extracts in his book, I wonder how he will prove his accusations regarding Mignini and oh yes the Italian Supreme Court. Is this the same Italian Supreme Court that will be deliberating his and Amanda’s involvement in the murder of Meredith Kercher? I wonder how that will work for him?

Just curious, how do you want it to work for Raffaele ?

 

[CoulsdonUK]

Just curious, how do you want it to work for Raffaele ?

I don't know, but the signs aren't looking good for him, what do you think?