My attempt at a short post
I don't disagree with any of this, and would also add that it was Mignini who caused the temperature not to be taken adding more doubt about the actual time of death. However I also think it's important to remember who made the case. That came from the mind of Mignini, he's the one, perhaps with an assist from Matteini, who made this case into a farce. The police gathered evidence, and Mignini had authority there, but the police didn't make the case to the court, Mignini did, that's where it got weird.
I don't think they had enough information about Rudy Guede at that point (November 2-5) to zero in on him. This is a college town of about 100k which also attracts drug culture denizens from many places, from what I've read there's plenty of crimes unsolved and unreported, witness CT going home because there was too long a line and it would take too long to file a report. The ones we know of (and it's quite possible there's ones we don't know about but the police did) aren't especially serious, CT escaped with no injuries and as a result didn't follow through with a report, the burglary of the lawyers office wasn't especially noteworthy and the nursery was in Milan and they never actually investigated it themselves.
Rudy didn't actually have a record, looking for a candidate for a breaking and entering there's sure to be more viable candidates, ones with records.. They also weren't looking for a burglar, very early in the investigation they came to the conclusion the break-in was staged. There's lots of indications this is so, it's what they were telling papers at the time, (some even had it as the killer escaping the scene through the window!) what they were telling the courts at the time, and what they said consistently throughout afterward about what they thought at the first.
I want to get the story right and that means facts have to be given the weight they deserve and other possibilities considered for their relevance. I do believe the police were suspicious of Amanda anyway (for various reasons) and if you're right about Napoleoni's motives that stunt would have value against Amanda but not much of anyone else and does nothing for Guede because regardless they're going to have to find a male for the rape part, and they had the means to know it was likely someone of African origin. Mignini wasn't even at the first interrogation, he didn't come in until after Amanda had signed the 1:45 AM statement, I don't think he was guiding their thinking to the extent necessary, though I do believe he was suspicious of her as well.
It also cannot be stressed enough: the police in Perugia did track down Rudy Guede and they did gather plenty of evidence for his conviction, so much so they tried to slough some of it off on Raffaele and Amanda. However by the time this occurred Mignini had already made a major splash with his bizarre theory, which in the circumstances pending against him from previous cases where he'd made a fool of himself might well have come home to haunt him. Imagine if he had to admit his bizarre theory was just the product of his imagination and what little they did have was due to poor interrogation methods and close-minded investigative techniques.
There doesn't need to be any other reason outside that, it didn't matter who the actual killer was, that person was going to be in fortuitous circumstances due to the police and prosecution already having told everyone they'd 'solved' the case. At that juncture either they admit they had everything wrong from the first and made utter and complete fools of themselves, or they 'determine' Amanda is an especially devious murderess and was 'responsible' for their mistake, which perversely could be used against her as well in the media and the courts. At that point Amanda, who papers had focused in on anyway, was likely to get a key role.
Well I think we're coming closer together, so I'll just point to a few issues left.
First off I agree Mignini delaying the temperature reading is already corrupt. It enlarges the time of death, and facilitates a conviction by making an alibi more difficult to sustain. So Mignini's a scoundrel out of the gate.
And the police gather evidence, to some degree guided by Mignini. But ultimately, Mignini has to fit the pieces of evidence together into a story that he, the prosecutor takes to court. So far, I think that puts us largely in agreement.
But you downplay Mignini's involvement prior to his showing up at 1:45am statement. BUt in Raf's book, a policewoman followed him out of the police station and gave him a lawyer's card and said he'd need it for sure. I'm not sure if that was Nov 3 or 4, but she must have heard something. It suggests a decision had been made that Raf and Amanda would be targeted at that time. It's consistent with the knife stunt at the cottage on Nov 4th as well. Are you excluding Mignini from this investigative decision, why? Doesn't this sound liek they'r all pulling in the same direction at this point? WHo is in a position to make that decision, if not Mignini? And on what basis would you exclude Mignini from such a role? Because you "don't think he played that big a role at that point'? Not good enough for me, its not enough to claim you're right on this point.
Where we're differing, is the police familiarity with Guede before the Kercher killing, and any effort to protect Guede as a result.
Your suggestion that GUede didn't have a record, reference to the size of the town, unsolved crimes, the severity of Guede's past crimes are reasonable questions to ask. However, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think
Napoleone actually acknowledged the police were familiar with Guede before the murder because of burglary activities in Perugia.
Moreover, the
Milan arrest had Rudy in possession of the items stolen from the law office in Perugia with the same MO as the cottage, rock through a second story window, with a metal grating assisted climb-up. In addition there was
a phone call from Perugia asking Milan to put Rudy on the next train back to Perugia. These facts were enough to convince Steve Moore, highly decorated 25 year veteran of the FBI.
No disrespect, but is your experience in crime scene analysis remotely comparable to Moore? If not, then why are you so quick to dismiss his conclusions, and substitute your own, not merely as alternatives, but as fact? The fact that you don't like the conclusion does not diminish Moore's professional credentials, nor at least some level of inferred credibility that ought reasonably confer. Your reasons are conjectural. So are Moore's really, but his conjecture is far better informed than yours (AFAIK - I don't know your background, but you do).
Add to this Nencini's confirmation that the police knew Guede well enough to be familiar with his B&E MO. Nencini raised the issue on a different context, bizarrely trying to imply that Guede would not fake a break-in in his own style and draw attention to himself, therefore Amanda and Raf staged the break-in, inexplicably in Guede's style. The idea that it could be an actual break-in by Guede, is outside Nencini's universe. But it's interesting that Nencini would confirm the police familiarity with Guede and his B&E MO when they arrive at the crime scene on day one. You have no reason to dispute this, other than conjecture of how
you would expect things to be, rather than accepting positive indications of how things actually are - at least according to subject matter experts. (Normally Nencini is a questionable source, but Rudy provides probable half-truths too, we just have to sort through it a bit).
Last point, is the point of no return for Mignini. After the Nov 6th case closed press conference, I think we agree Mignini has a lot of reasons for not backing away from his arrests of AK, RS, and PL.
Looking foolish, yes. Undermining his credibility in regard to satanic orgy murder claims, absolutely, because he has those two other cases going on, and badly, at the same time.
But protecting Guede is an additional factor for not backing down. You say they came to the conclusion the break-in was staged, and point to the stories they leaked in the press at the time. Apart from the fact that they leaked false stories regularly to the press, what reason do you have to believe the police genuinely believed the break-in was staged?
I know there were comments from Battistelli (?) postal police, people have suggested he started the idea and it took hold.
But I disagree. If Moore and Nencini are correct that the police had a relationship and were familiar with Guede's MO, they would have a reason to conceal or minimize Guede's role. They don't have to know it's Guede, but they could suspect he might have been responsible.
But if the police allowed Guede to commit crimes because he was an informant, and helped him return to Perugia from Milan for the same reason, then they are responsible for Guede's actions in killing Meredith. If Guede alone is responsible, then Mig & the police are responsible too. Protecting Guede is also protecting themselves.
The excuses the police give to suggest it was a staged break-in, a female perpetrator because of the duvet covering the body, their refusal to test the glass to prove which way the glass was broken, and the lies of 'glass on top of clothes'. The concealment of DNA profiles downstairs, and the hundreds of hidden profiles. The refusal to test the semen stain, or concealing the fact that they did test it, we really don't know.
You're willing to accept the police's assertion that they believed the break-in was staged. I'm not. If the break-in wasn't staged, they have a single perp.
And you are committed to the idea, that the police tracked down Guede is proof that they weren't protecting Guede. I say Mignini plays the cards he's dealt. They had prints in blood that matched Guede to his records as an immigrant. How could they not follow up. How are we supposed to substitute our conjecture for what may have happened, with what did happen. I can't, and I don't think you can either. We have to be able to admit when we've reached the limit our theory allows. Ultimately, I think the police collect what the can, but Mignini assembles the pieces of the puzzle.
So, I don't think we're that far apart. I think it's mostly a debate about how well the police knew Guede before the killing. And in trying to lessen Guede's role, are the police also trying to lessen their blame in having allowed him to remain free to kill - thus throwing blame onto the police for Ms Kercher's death.
I had hoped for a shorter post. And I know you'll hash out an even longer one. But I'll add that Mignini has a habit of getting stuck on dumb ideas. He theorized (in 2002) that Dr Narducci had been drowned (in 1985) as part of the satanic sex cult behind the MOF killings. When the Narducci family objected to Mignini exhuming the body, Mignini interpreted their resistance to his investigation as complicity in his imagined MOF cult. When Spezi went on Italian TV (2004) and ridiculed Mignini's investigation, Mignini charged Spezi with being the actual Monster of Florence (2006). When Preston befriended and collaborated with Spezi on their Monster book, Mignini charged Preston as Spezi's criminal accomplice (2006). When reporters, police, and prosecutors opposed Mignini's linking Narducci's drowning to the MOF case, Mignini opened secret investigations of them trying to link them to the MOF cult (which led to charges against Mignini in 2007). When people disagree with Mignini, he charges them with slander and calumnia, especially defendants in criminal cases.
It's entirely possible Mignini created a fantasy of Amanda that satisfied his professional needs, and then fully believed his own baloney, and wouldn't accept any contrary evidence, just as he had in the previous examples - in the same criminal 'satanic cult' theory. I think Mignini is incapable of separating fact from fiction. The Rudy element is one more loose end, I think its a mistake to dismiss it out of hand, IMO.
