Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[Samson]

Wrong and wrong.

Prof. Snape is FBN wife.

The digestion time doesn't mean much as it was the mini egg meal. There is no way to say that her system HAD to have moved by 9:30.

Please find where the girls were specifically asked when MEREDITH ate and what she ate. The 500 ml is a much bigger meal then an egg, toast and jam.

Maybe this Steven Jay Gould quote will help some thinking here:

In July 1982, Gould was diagnosed with peritoneal mesothelioma, a deadly form of cancer affecting the abdominal lining and frequently found in people who have been exposed to asbestos or rock dust. After a difficult two-year recovery, Gould published a column for Discover magazine, entitled, "The Median Isn't the Message", which discusses his reaction to discovering that mesothelioma patients had a median lifespan of only eight months after diagnosis.[15] He then describes the true significance behind this number, and his relief upon realizing that statistical averages are just useful abstractions, and do not encompass the full range of variation.​

One additional thought is that the tester knew by the two hour time that they were going to explore their health more.

ETA - It's not Laurowolf it's PK777 asking for the timeline. Could be related to our xxxx777

Yes but its Lauowolf's answer. I thought she has some status there.

Your Jay Gould analogy is false, because it can not be replicated with easy and widespread testing.
I was making a defence argument based on the very long gap between the meal and the expiry of Raffaele's alibi, particularly in light of Nencini's considerable extension, 15 minutes from the previous 9 11pm, which was not itself a firm time because Amelie could close itself.

This can be resolved with a clinical study using a test meal designed to both have a suitable medium for the radio particles along with similar size and ingredients to the real meal. A statistician would say how many suitable similar subjects to Meredith would be needed.

There are practical reasons to go for a realistic meal start time before 7 30,
1. Witness testimony
2. Size of meal in 2 courses.
3. Movie intermission
4. Meredith leaves for home at 8 45 an hour after meal completion (witness)

The point about the two hour test is they clearly expect 100% of healthy patients to have gastric movement by then, which is not able to be inferred from the 3 and 4 hour tests.
Given the high stakes involved, I am surprised no one bothers, especially with a medically obsessive nation like America where the results could turn public opinion.

 

[Diocletus]

I have a crazy question. Has anyone ever seen a picture of the bra showing that the clasp was not attached to it when it was collected?

 

[Grinder]

Yes but its Lauowolf's answer. I thought she has some status there.

Your Jay Gould analogy is false, because it can not be replicated with easy and widespread testing.
I was making a defence argument based on the very long gap between the meal and the expiry of Raffaele's alibi, particularly in light of Nencini's considerable extension, 15 minutes from the previous 9 11pm, which was not itself a firm time because Amelie could close itself.

This can be resolved with a clinical study using a test meal designed to both have a suitable medium for the radio particles along with similar size and ingredients to the real meal. A statistician would say how many suitable similar subjects to Meredith would be needed.

There are practical reasons to go for a realistic meal start time before 7 30,
1. Witness testimony
2. Size of meal in 2 courses.
3. Movie intermission
4. Meredith leaves for home at 8 45 an hour after meal completion (witness)

The point about the two hour test is they clearly expect 100% of healthy patients to have gastric movement by then, which is not able to be inferred from the 3 and 4 hour tests.
Given the high stakes involved, I am surprised no one bothers, especially with a medically obsessive nation like America where the results could turn public opinion.

You don't understand the import or SJG's quoite.

Nothing in the GE end of digestive science precludes a 3 hour T(lag). The test meals are specifically designed to move quickly.

I've read enough of the studies to know that there are significant numbers in the three to four range with a normal meal. The phone calls are much better evidence.

Laurawolf has no status, even there, and her response was a put down of PK777.

 

[acbytesla]

Go reread what I've been saying. I don't believe he bought it in Milan. Now think really hard, if he is a fence for stuff stolen in Perugia it most likely he would acquire it in Perugia. Now still thinking hard, do you think that he would name his Perugian outlaw buddies?

Although I could easily buy all your computers even the Toshiba 3100 that sold for $30,000 at it new price I've slept in an airport and no spent $150 for a room. I might only have $20 in my pocket but be worth far more. I know that they only found a small amount of cash he had stolen but I don't know how much of his own he had.

I'll ask you to provide some source for this but won't hold my breath.

Do you believe anything he said was the truth?



Duh. I've been telling you this since RW posted it three weeks ago. He might have left his phone at home with his pile of laptops.

Tesla, no one believes he bought the stuff at the train station. He brought it from Perugia. Either he stole them himself or they were fronted to him to sell in Milan.

You forgot to admit your train fare argument was worthless since he had to get to Milan either to sell the loot or not.

Now you've been carrying on for ever that he couldn't be a fence because he didn't have a phone but in fact he had a phone and many computers to communicate with.

1. I never really owned the Toshiba T3100 with the Network General Sniffer software. Or at least I never paid for it. I use to work for a Rep company sold Network General. That was a demo laptop that I took from customer to customer and never gave back to Network General.

You keep making leaps of logic with no real link between them. Are we supposed to believe anything Rudy says? I don't.

You keep arguing that he was in Milan to sell the stolen loot...but we don't really know that do we? You can say all day that he was a fence but there is no evidence really that suggest that.

I think the fact that Rudy has no real money on him on the day he is supposedly going back to Perugia shows that he wasn't a fence. Not unless he took the cash from his sales and deposited in the bank.

Do I doubt that Rudy may have meant to sell the laptop and the gold watch in Milan while he was there? No...maybe he meant to and couldn't find a buyer.
But that just means he is selling stolen goods. Being a fence means he is also buying stolen goods and not being a burglar. Without any real evidence of his buys, I see no reason to jump to the conclusion that he is a fence.

 

[Samson]

You don't understand the import or SJG's quoite.

Nothing in the GE end of digestive science precludes a 3 hour T(lag). The test meals are specifically designed to move quickly.

I've read enough of the studies to know that there are significant numbers in the three to four range with a normal meal. The phone calls are much better evidence.

Laurawolf has no status, even there, and her response was a put down of PK777.

I certainly understand the significance of SGJ's quote, I am a great believer a grounding in statistics, along with mental mathematical skills will save being hoodwinked in many situations. But SGJ was being more Oscar Wilde than statistician there. This endless exaggeration of the variability of gastric emptying commencement will deny the kids a chance at a fantastic assault on the soft underbelly of the case against them. Would you regard my suggestion of a clinical experiment as pointless?

ETA the scientific battleground is America now. Italy is a lost cause, but I doubt they will jail Raf before Amanda is processed.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

a reasonable explanation for the luminol blobs in Filomena's room

I have wondered whether the Luminol positive footprints discovered on the second visit could have been the result of someone moving out of MK bedroom in overboots resulting in ill defined Luminol positive smudges elsewhere in the flat.

Planigale,

This has always seemed plausible to me as well.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

gastric juice volume

The digestion time doesn't mean much as it was the mini egg meal. There is no way to say that her system HAD to have moved by 9:30.

Please find where the girls were specifically asked when MEREDITH ate and what she ate. The 500 ml is a much bigger meal then an egg, toast and jam.

Grinder,

The 500 mL volume is the presumably volume of the meal plus the volume of gastric juices. An average person secretes about 1.2-1.5 L per day. A quick read of a 1974 paper by Hunt leads me to believe that the volume of gastric secretions is in the ballpark of 50% of the total volume. Perhaps Rolfe or someone with a better background in physiology than I have can provide further insight.

 

[Bill Williams]

I have wondered whether the Luminol positive footprints discovered on the second visit could have been the result of someone moving out of MK bedroom in overboots resulting in ill defined Luminol positive smudges elsewhere in the flat.

Planigale,

This has always seemed plausible to me as well.

.............. or the 118 Medical staff who attended on Nov 2 to examine Meredith's body. Both Stefanoni and Napoleoni testified at the Massei trial in 2009 that they'd gone into the bedroom without protective clothing or shoes.

Massei only deals with them in terms of possible contamination on the bra-clasp. Massei says that the clasp was probably protected under Meredith's body or under the pillow.

There's not one mention of them leaving the room.... Massei says they probably did not track in DNA, but did they track out blood smudges?? Were their shoes ever confiscated only so as to rule them out as suspects!

 

[Grinder]

1. I never really owned the Toshiba T3100 with the Network General Sniffer software. Or at least I never paid for it. I use to work for a Rep company sold Network General. That was a demo laptop that I took from customer to customer and never gave back to Network General.

So you are getting more cred by admitting you are a thief. Was it you that admitted doing things illegal when young

You keep making leaps of logic with no real link between them. Are we supposed to believe anything Rudy says? I don't.

So you don't believe Amanda wasn't there. You don't believe that Meredith screamed at 9:20-30 (good to have an ally). You don't believe he ditched the shoes in Germany. You don't believe he ate a kebab. You don't believe he had a SIM.

How is a leap to say since there is no mention by a credible source that there was any sign of break-in and Prato was doing something to the lock perhaps putting in a new one, because the place had been compromised. Consistent with Rudi's story that he was let in.

You keep arguing that he was in Milan to sell the stolen loot...but we don't really know that do we? You can say all day that he was a fence but there is no evidence really that suggest that.

There is more evidence that he was a fence than a burglar. Do you admit that the cost of the train was a ridiculous assertion?

I think the fact that Rudy has no real money on him on the day he is supposedly going back to Perugia shows that he wasn't a fence. Not unless he took the cash from his sales and deposited in the bank.

Do you have any source that says the petty cash from the nursery was the only money he had? Do you know that he didn't have money at home in his stash?

You have no proof that his rent was due. You don't know if he was flush.

Do I doubt that Rudy may have meant to sell the laptop and the gold watch in Milan while he was there? No...maybe he meant to and couldn't find a buyer.
But that just means he is selling stolen goods. Being a fence means he is also buying stolen goods and not being a burglar. Without any real evidence of his buys, I see no reason to jump to the conclusion that he is a fence.

I see. Without enough credible proof he was a fence he isn't a fence but with less evidence he was a burglar he was a burglar. Not everyone that does fencing puts up cash. People are fronted stolen items, drugs and other things. How in the world would we have evidence of his buys? If he said it, you'd call him a liar. Do think the thieves are going to come public?

What do you think happened to the other stuff from the lawyers' office? We don't have evidence he sold them so...

 

[Grinder]

I certainly understand the significance of SGJ's quote, I am a great believer a grounding in statistics, along with mental mathematical skills will save being hoodwinked in many situations. But SGJ was being more Oscar Wilde than statistician there. This endless exaggeration of the variability of gastric emptying commencement will deny the kids a chance at a fantastic assault on the soft underbelly of the case against them. Would you regard my suggestion of a clinical experiment as pointless?

What would the test look like? !00 people eat a meal similar to Meredith's last? Would they be tested after consuming a large amount of alcohol the night before? Would they have the equivalent of 2 or 3 drinks when they eat? Would they all be 20 years old, of similar ethnic makeup and of her weight?

That would certainly be interesting.

ETA the scientific battleground is America now. Italy is a lost cause, but I doubt they will jail Raf before Amanda is processed.

Depends.

I think you might benefit from reading his essay

Wilde?

 

[acbytesla]

So you are getting more cred by admitting you are a thief. Was it you that admitted doing things illegal when young

Not really. I had it for a very long time and eventually they didn't really care if they got it back.
[/QUOTE]

So you don't believe Amanda wasn't there. You don't believe that Meredith screamed at 9:20-30 (good to have an ally). You don't believe he ditched the shoes in Germany. You don't believe he ate a kebab. You don't believe he had a SIM.

But Rudy changed his mind about Amanda being there..or have you forgot? I think, any time when Rudy thinks it is to cover his own backside, I think you can distrust what comes out of his mouth. If it doesn't matter, then maybe he's telling the truth...MAYBE.

How is a leap to say since there is no mention by a credible source that there was any sign of break-in and Prato was doing something to the lock perhaps putting in a new one, because the place had been compromised. Consistent with Rudi's story that he was let in.

The leap is to say that he is only a fence and not a burglar. You have no evidence that he was buying stolen goods, merely that he was possessing stolen goods.

There is more evidence that he was a fence than a burglar. Do you admit that the cost of the train was a ridiculous assertion?

Absolutely not. There is ZERO evidence that Rudy is a fence and not a burglar. Tell me one thief he stole from.

Do you have any source that says the petty cash from the nursery was the only money he had? Do you know that he didn't have money at home in his stash?

It is my understanding that Rudy had virtually no money but change on him when he was caught at the nursery. If you have other information..please share.

You have no proof that his rent was due. You don't know if he was flush.

Hell, everybody's rent is due at the beginning of the moth. But I never said it had to be.

I see. Without enough credible proof he was a fence he isn't a fence but with less evidence he was a burglar he was a burglar. Not everyone that does fencing puts up cash. People are fronted stolen items, drugs and other things. How in the world would we have evidence of his buys? If he said it, you'd call him a liar. Do think the thieves are going to come public?

What do you think happened to the other stuff from the lawyers' office? We don't have evidence he sold them so...

I don't have an inventory of what was stolen from the law office. Do you?

Here is a simple question for you Grinder. Do you believe that Rudy broke into the cottage? Or do you think he had a date with Meredith?

 

[Grinder]

Planigale,

This has always seemed plausible to me as well.

How would they test negative for blood?

 

[acbytesla]

So you are getting more cred by admitting you are a thief. Was it you that admitted doing things illegal when young

Not really. I had it for a very long time and eventually they didn't really care if they got it back.
[/QUOTE]

So you don't believe Amanda wasn't there. You don't believe that Meredith screamed at 9:20-30 (good to have an ally). You don't believe he ditched the shoes in Germany. You don't believe he ate a kebab. You don't believe he had a SIM.

But Rudy changed his mind about Amanda being there..or have you forgot? I think, any time when Rudy thinks it is to cover his own backside, I think you can distrust what comes out of his mouth. If it doesn't matter, then maybe he's telling the truth...MAYBE.

How is a leap to say since there is no mention by a credible source that there was any sign of break-in and Prato was doing something to the lock perhaps putting in a new one, because the place had been compromised. Consistent with Rudi's story that he was let in.

The leap is to say that he is only a fence and not a burglar. You have no evidence that he was buying stolen goods, merely that he was possessing stolen goods.

There is more evidence that he was a fence than a burglar. Do you admit that the cost of the train was a ridiculous assertion?

Absolutely not. There is ZERO evidence that Rudy is a fence and not a burglar. Tell me one thief he bought or sold any equipment from or for? You can't. So there is nothing there but your speculation.

Do you have any source that says the petty cash from the nursery was the only money he had? Do you know that he didn't have money at home in his stash?

It is my understanding that Rudy had virtually no money but change on him when he was caught at the nursery. If you have other information..please share.

You have no proof that his rent was due. You don't know if he was flush.

Hell, everybody's rent is due at the beginning of the moth. But I never said it had to be.

I see. Without enough credible proof he was a fence he isn't a fence but with less evidence he was a burglar he was a burglar. Not everyone that does fencing puts up cash. People are fronted stolen items, drugs and other things. How in the world would we have evidence of his buys? If he said it, you'd call him a liar. Do think the thieves are going to come public?

What do you think happened to the other stuff from the lawyers' office? We don't have evidence he sold them so...

I don't have an inventory of what was stolen from the law office. Do you?

Here is a simple question for you Grinder. Do you believe that Rudy broke into the cottage? Or do you think he had a date with Meredith?

 

[Desert Fox]

I see. Without enough credible proof he was a fence he isn't a fence but with less evidence he was a burglar he was a burglar. Not everyone that does fencing puts up cash. People are fronted stolen items, drugs and other things. How in the world would we have evidence of his buys? If he said it, you'd call him a liar. Do think the thieves are going to come public?

I do not think you argue that Rudy was in the cottage for a date?
It is almost certain he was there to commit burglary.
As such, I don't that is an issue but there is far less to argue that he was a fence.
Obviously, the rent money Meredeth has was also gone and I don't think you blame Amanda on that either?
Would seem that on the nigh of the crime, he was out of money.
I am uncertain what your angle is?

 

[codyjuneau]

And I think PK777 was just banned, if you can believe these posts from "fly by night":

Which reminds me - I think I'll delete PK777 today. I can't say that I have a reason beyond trying to reduce the overall post-load for expediency; I'm one of those lazy admins. It was me that banned you and I didn't even bother to consult with anyone before doing it. You need to consider that I'm not expecting an uproar from the community about it. (smiley face deleted) I have spent very little time reading that forum. Today I was reading for about 30 min. I think I'm glad this forum exists...

p.s. I guess the timeline request was too much for them? Easier to make the requester go away.

.
That reminds me of many radio talk show hosts. When a caller disagrees with the host, the host gets impatient and rude with the caller, and then cuts his/her call short. After a while, the only people that bother to phone in are the choir the host is preaching to. It makes the host feel smart I guess.

Cody
.

 

[Grinder]

Not really. I had it for a very long time and eventually they didn't really care if they got it back.

Denial/rationalization.

But Rudy changed his mind about Amanda being there..or have you forgot? I think, any time when Rudy thinks it is to cover his own backside, I think you can distrust what comes out of his mouth. If it doesn't matter, then maybe he's telling the truth...MAYBE.

The general on this here is he told the truth until Mignini made him an offer he couldn't refuse.

The leap is to say that he is only a fence and not a burglar. You have no evidence that he was buying stolen goods, merely that he was possessing stolen goods.

Fences possess stolen goods. He possessed stolen goods.

There is no credible evidence that he burgled.

Absolutely not. There is ZERO evidence that Rudy is a fence and not a burglar. Tell me one thief he stole from.

Fences don't steal from thieves. In order to fence one must possess stolen merch and he did. RW's source says he had more merch at home.

It is my understanding that Rudy had virtually no money but change on him when he was caught at the nursery. If you have other information..please share.

It is your understanding... Perhaps from some of those articles that said Hellmann allowed no cross. No you say he had no money on him and you make that into him being broke etc. You provide the sources

Hell, everybody's rent is due at the beginning of the moth. But I never said it had to be.

Yes most rents are due by the 5th but you don't know he hadn't paid or had the money ready.

I don't have an inventory of what was stolen from the law office. Do you?

In addition to the phone and laptop I know there was also a printer.

I'll teach youn search for a fee

Additionally, witnesses Paolo Brocchi and Matteo Palazzoli, lawyers, described a burglary in their law office located in Perugia at Via Del Rosetto 3 on the night between Saturday, October 13, and Sunday, October 14, 2007. The burglar or burglars had entered through a window of which the glass had been broken with a rather large rock; the glass was scattered everywhere, and they had found their clothing on top of it (p.10, hearing of 6-26-2009). The inventory taken afterward revealed a missing computer, cellular phone, USB cables [chiavi USB], and portable printer. On October 29 a colleague had called Paolo Brocchi to tell him that in the hallway was a person who said he had been found in Milan with items that Mr. Brocchi had reported as stolen, but which he claimed to have acquired legally in Milan. Paolo Brocchi immediately recognized that person as Rudy Guede (p. 20, hearing of 6-26-2009).​

Here is a simple question for you Grinder. Do you believe that Rudy broke into the cottage? Or do you think he had a date with Meredith?[/QUOTE]

Ah the old false choice. I'm absolutely convinced that someone threw a rock from the outside almost certainly before Meredith returned home. Entry may have been accomplished quite easily through the window. I don't believe Filomena ever closed the shutters in her hurried departure. Rudi may have entered through the window or could have been let in by Meredith if she returned before entry. I think that Kokomani was involved. He may have driven Rudi and another to do the caper. They would have used the car to remove the stuff. Rudi would have been working with the burglar from the lawyers' office hence the similar MO.

It is equally possible that Rudi climbed on his own.

I think it is possible that Meredith would have met up with Rudi and that the drunken british girls wouldn't have noticed but I consider it of a lower connection value (see Galati)

 

[Samson]

What would the test look like? !00 people eat a meal similar to Meredith's last? Would they be tested after consuming a large amount of alcohol the night before? Would they have the equivalent of 2 or 3 drinks when they eat? Would they all be 20 years old, of similar ethnic makeup and of her weight?

That would certainly be interesting.



Depends.

I think you might benefit from reading his essay

Wilde?

Wrong idea, I have to read SGJ properly (I was thinking reports of my death have been exaggerated which was probably Mark Twain)

I am in the midst of searching more pdf files on this subject. Provisionally I am convinced the bender from last night would not alter the result, the more I search the more bizarre it seems she had a full stomach, even at 9, but I plan to assemble some citations.

I suspect the test would be very easy to design and conduct in a research hospital with a motivated PIP person.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

basic versus acidic conditions

How would they test negative for blood?

Grinder,

The luminol test is done under basic conditions (pH > 7), and the TMB test is done under acidic conditions. We are all agreed that the luminol was very heavily applied. Perhaps there was so much base from the luminol that the TMB test was at the wrong pH. It is difficult to test this without making a guess as to how much luminol was actually used. I realize that this is a speculative answer, but every answer to this question entails a bit of speculation.

 

[Grinder]

I do not think you argue that Rudy was in the cottage for a date?
It is almost certain he was there to commit burglary.
As such, I don't that is an issue but there is far less to argue that he was a fence.
Obviously, the rent money Meredeth has was also gone and I don't think you blame Amanda on that either?
Would seem that on the nigh of the crime, he was out of money.
I am uncertain what your angle is?

My point is that the long held meme here, by me as well, came into question with the Spanish article revealing that Rudi had several computers at his place.

When I then went back and looked at the evidence it became much weaker. If CT's story went against the kids I'd discount it. Not during Rudi in makes little sense and then we find that he was still going to Domus it made the story even less credible.

I've always thought the Koko story was strange.

 

[Grinder]

Grinder,

The luminol test is done under basic conditions (pH > 7), and the TMB test is done under acidic conditions. We are all agreed that the luminol was very heavily applied. Perhaps there was so much base from the luminol that the TMB test was at the wrong pH. It is difficult to test this without making a guess as to how much luminol was actually used. I realize that this is a speculative answer, but every answer to this question entails a bit of speculation.

So you finally admit that the prints could have been there for an extended period from a very weak blood mixture left by previous tenets?

Your explanation above gives credence to the PGP that the TMB negative means little to nothing, no?