Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[Grinder]

Extremely well said Bill. This in a nutshell is why I prefer science over religion. I grew up going to church but we were never supposed to question the teachings of the church. Whereas science is not about the results per se but about the method that we approach those results.

So much of Stefanoni and prosecution is like the church. Don't question us. Don't make us accountable. Don't make us prove what we have told you.

Just believe it and blindly follow.

I would have thought you would be religious.

 

[AmyStrange]

double negatives

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...There is no evidence that he wasn't let in the nursery...

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Slow down Grinder. That's a double negative and you should know that. You're usually pretty rational, but that wasn't. Are you OK?

d

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[Strozzi]

I would have thought you would be religious.

Acbytesla is religious. He leads the Seattle coven. We meet at the Boeing plant.

 

[Grinder]

It is. It is work and it has become harder and harder and harder. There was a time when equipment was expensive and margins were very good,(My first pc had an 8088 processor a 10MB hard drive and 512K and cost $2,000) but that time has long since past.

Why buy a stolen laptop when a new one is cheap? Finding a customer for that crap is a big challenge. My guess is that Rudy would do better buying and selling phones and digital cameras than PCs. Grinder seems to assume that the computers that the Spanish girls saw were valuable. You and I know better. I can't imagine how Rudy without a phone could buy and sell a tower pc. He's not going to carry those around with him so his customers would have to come to his apartment. I could see Rudy stealing a laptop during a burglary and trying to sell it at the university carrying it in a backpack. But he is not likely to get much money for it.

I believe Anglo provided a value for laptops back then when they were a little more expensive than now. So you theorize that he was just stealing computers to collect them?

I used to own a Jetta and had about 5 stereos stolen out of it, even removable and face plate models. How much do you think a pull out Pioneer would go for? At the time millions were being stolen a year yet I had never been offered one and no one I knew had been. The cops said something like they trade them for crack. I asked what the crack dealer did and met with deer headlight eyes.

The only person that has ever mentioned a tower computer is you. No one said that a laptop would fetch a high price, never-the-less they are stolen even now. Smart phones are stolen all the time but used ones don't sell for that much and they can be traced.

Rudi had a phone that is also reported in the RW's Spanish story. IIRC Rudi made a statemnet to Mignini about using his SIM in different phones. Don't you remember a discussion here wondering about Rudi's phone history?

Now what is valuable? Are you saying that Rudi would have to pay a disposal fee for the laptops? Why do you think he was out stealing worthless computers? Only Anglo has put a value on them that I know of and I trust his research.

 

[Grinder]

Realize I'm down thread in this reply, but could you imagine the fun and mayhem if the unidentified males on the bra clasp came back as Mignini and/or Giobbi?

I'd prefer Napoleoni and one of her thug buddies. I think she could have a Y-halpotype

 

[js202]

method to his madness...

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Slow down Grinder. That's a double negative and you should know that. You're usually pretty rational, but that wasn't. Are you OK?

d

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I think that one was intentional!

 

[Strozzi]

I'd prefer Napoleoni and one of her thug buddies. I think she could have a Y-halpotype

Stefanoni may have analyzed evidence but not reported it. She may have tested the alleged semen stain, identified it as belonging to the victim's boyfriend, and thus solved that question for the police and prosecutor. She may have matched some of the DNA on the bra clasp to her own lab techs, police, or prosecution, and not acknowledge it so as to conceal contamination.

I nominate Giobbi for one!

Can someone remind me who submitted DNA samples? Who else besides Amanda, Raffaele, Rudy, and the four guys downstairs?

 

[Grinder]

Slow down Grinder. That's a double negative and you should know that. You're usually pretty rational, but that wasn't. Are you OK?

It is clearly a double negative. Rudi has always said he was let in. There was no information given by Prato or any source that indicated he had broken anything (window or door) to get in. Tesla maintains that Rudi was there a few weeks before and stole 2000 Euros but didn't have enough money to buy valueless laptops.

Please reword it for me. There is nothing that indicates Rudi broke into the nursery. Is that better

ETA - From a site called http://amanda-knox.wikispaces.com/ pro innocence

Oct. 27, 2007 (occurred in Milan) [Nursery school owner Maria Del Prato] entered the nursery school at via Plinio 16, Milan, of which she was the principal, she noticed coming out of her office a person whom she didn'ʹt know, later identified as Rudy Guede. There were no signs of a break‑in. There was some money missing from the money box, but just small change.

 

[Bill Williams]

I would have thought you would be religious.

I am. Very. Rabidly so. I just believe that the organized part of it should be held to the standards of accountability and transparency as anything else.

Fortunately I do not belong to an organized religion. My church couldn't organize a piss-up at a brewery!

 

[AmyStrange]

food fight!!!

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Realize I'm down thread in this reply, but could you imagine the fun and mayhem if the unidentified males on the bra clasp came back as Mignini and/or Giobbi?

I'd prefer Napoleoni and one of her thug buddies. I think she could have a Y-halpotype

_

I'd like to throw Maresca's name into this free-for-all pileup,

d

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[Bill Williams]

Some scientific ideas that are often accepted by the world are not really science but just an idea. They almost resemble a religion as they can be accepted a bit too blindly. But the beauty of science is the methodology. It is the skeptics methodology. Put it to the test. Come up with a hypothesis and then try and prove it or prove it wrong.

I'm not sure what religion you subscribe to Bill and this wasn't really meant as a repudiation of religion. But the earth wasn't created in six days and The sun does not circle the earth and Lot's wife didn't turn into a pillar of salt and Noah didn't live to be hundreds of years old and Jonah wasn't swallowed by a large fish/whale and Jephthah isn't to be admired for killing his own daughter because he promised God that he would.

The earth was created in six days if you understand the import of them seeing it that way. Science as we know it now was not even invented for another millennium and a half, so it seems a little unscientific to judge something on a standard which did not exist at the time.

Science and religion have overlaps, but conflating the two projects is the problem. It's why Creationism and Intelligent Design are complete bunk, but many of the so called criticisms of religion are too.

 

[acbytesla]

As usual you are stupidly wrong. He was in Milan with the stolen merchandise. He told the truth about a transaction at the train station only it was his attempt to SELL the laptop he was fencing. You have him stealing the 2000 Euro but not having the money to buy a few hot computers. Ever heard of fronting drugs or merchandise?

I have no doubt that Rudy tried to "fence" what he stole. That does not mean he operated at as a fence buying and selling. There is a significant difference. And what makes you think Rudy told the "truth about a transaction" at the train station.

As usual you just make stuff up. When asked to provide cites or proof you just attack and move on.

What did I make up this time? How much I paid for a PC 30 years ago?

You refuse to acknowledge that it makes little sense that CT would report the crime and when he later positively identified the burglar as Rudi he just let it drop.

It makes sense to me.

There is no evidence that he wasn't let in the nursery and Prato doesn't mention it.

There is no evidence he was either. And Rudy's word is NOT CREDIBLE.

Her video doesn't show where he broke in nor is it mentioned. Rather she demonstrates entering normally and finding Rudi coming out of her office.

So?

So what we have is hard evidence he possessed stolen merchandise and none that he did the break-in. Going to the lawyers is consistent with having received the laptop and phone as a fence.

One, just because they couldn't find obvious evidence of how Rudy broke into the nursery does not mean he didn't break into it. All it takes is unlocked window or door.
And two, going t o the lawyers office is not consistent with Rudy being a fence, just Rudy being caught in Milan.

Ah how did Rudi travel to and in Germany? any chance he didn't pay for the train? You have him broke but traveling to Milan for no purpose, that's just plain dumb. It's a better business to steal in Perugia and buy a ticket to Milan and not sell the merchandise?

He was broke coming back. It was Rudy who said he didn't have the money to stay some place and as I understand it it was the police said all he had was change.

Of course you do or your assumptions take another hit. the question wasn't if you believed it but rather if it makes sense that he would recognize a guy that had threatened him with a knife, has credit cards of his and his girlfriend that he had already reported the crime yet just lets it go with a temporary club banning. But I'm sure you have a bunch of personal experiences that verify your position.

Just remembered, you were going to supply the list of people convicted almost solely on motive.

huh?

Desert are you saying that Rudi was just stealing to collect computers? Laptops may or may not have been easy to sell in 2007 in Italy but they would equally hard to sell for others as for Rudi. Rudi had his Milan connections and knew how to travel for free and could have been a better fence than burglar. The point I've been making is that the evidence of Rudi being a burglar really isn't solid and RW's Spanish article stating he had a bunch of laptops caused a reevaluation for me. Is there an equivalent to Occam's that states once an opinion has been formed it remains correct no matter what knew evidence comes up.

Nonsense. Do you really think the market for laptops is better in Milan than Perugia? So Rudy had connections in Milan? That makes them fences...not Rudy. Rudy is not the fence but the guy selling to the fence.

Someone here has Rudi stealing 2000 Euros but not having enough money for rent or to buy hot computers. Btw, if Rudi was fencing oops I mean he was fencing but did it by getting stuff fronted to him. This is very common a the bottom of the food chain.

That Rudy may have stole 2000 Euros a month before does not mean he has lots of money a month later. The biggest problem with Rudy being a fence is that he can't call people..he can't easily make arrangements to meet people to buy and sell. There is little reason to believe that Rudy is the middleman. but far more likely the thief.

 

[Grinder]

Here from the "good" wiki - On September 27 2007, bartender, Cristian Tramontano, was awakened in the middle of the night by sounds of someone in his apartment and discovered a young black man whom he later learned was Rudy Guede going through his possessions. Rudy first grabbed a chair to fend Tremontano off, then pulled a knife on him and managed to get out the door. Tremontano reported the break in to the police on January 8, 2008. Tremontano recognized Rudy at the Domus Disco and had him removed by the bouncers. He also kicked him out of the bar, Merlin, where he worked.

Marta Fernandez Nieto and Caroline Espinilla Martin, after having declared that they did not know either Amanda or Meredith, stated having met Rudy around the end of September 2007, since he lived in the flat underneath theirs in Perugia, Via del Canerino 26 [Guede’s apartment]. They also declared that they went out with Rudy on October 29 and 31, 2007; concerning the night from October 31 to November 1, the night of Halloween, they recalled that they had been with Rudy for almost the whole time, having met him at around 22:30 pm at the home of a compatriot of theirs, Adriana Vinuesa Molina, who lived in Campo di Battaglia. There were about thirty people there, and they entertained themselves there until about midnight. They then went to the home of another Spanish boy in Piazza Italia, and there again Rudy was with them, and when Carolina went on to the "Domus" club, Rudy was still there, always remaining with the young Spanish people. The only girl they saw him dance with was "a blond girl with long smooth hair" (cf. declarations of Marta Fernandez Nieto and Carolina Espinilla Martin from December 6, 2007, acquired for use in the hearing of July 3, 2009

Would that mean one month after being banned he was back at Domus? If we go with CT, he spotted a guy that just been in his flat stealing and threatening him with a knife and had him banned from a club that he was at one month later. Sorry but CT is slipping in cred.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

brief discussion of the bra clasp DNA

I was also hoping that someone could explain the bra clasp DNA to me? What exactly was found? Was it a complete profile of Raffaele or just y haplotype mixed with the DNA of others and therefore could not rule him out, but was also not a definite match. I remember from the Hellman trial the experts saying they could have found a match for anyone amongst the mixture of DNA, is this corret?

I have a couple of blog entries posted on the subject of the clasp, but I have not dealt at length with the YSTR. Briefly, the autosomal DNA result is dominated by Meredith's profile, Raffaele and Meredith share a number of alleles (about 10, IIRC), and under these conditions, it would be difficult to have a complete second profile. There are additional peaks that might be Sollecito (Dr. Balding's analysis indicates that his profile was present), and there are nonstutter peaks that are not from either of the two.

How many contributors one counts, and how many people might have contributed are affected by the choices makes in the analysis. Among the choices is whether or not to eliminate from consideration peaks in the stutter position (-1) to the main peaks (which are Meredith's profile). IIUC Conti and Vecchiotti included peaks that fall into the stutter position, which is one recommendation for how to analyze mixtures.

A second choice is whether or not to do the analysis in a suspect-centered manner. There is an interesting discussion of this from a non-DNA scientist named Maundy Gregory. Knowing Knox's profile, he was able to find small peaks in the autosomal egram that could be from her. But he also tried the same thing with Casey Anthony's profile, and found many of Casey's peaks. I think he ended up showing why suspect-centered analysis is to be avoided.

A YSTR profile from someone sharing Raf's profile dominates the Y chromosomal egram. However, between two and four additional males contributed to this profile.

 

[Grinder]

I am. Very. Rabidly so. I just believe that the organized part of it should be held to the standards of accountability and transparency as anything else.

Fortunately I do not belong to an organized religion. My church couldn't organize a piss-up at a brewery!

Bill that was addressed to the scientist (computer tech) not you.

 

[AmyStrange]

Clarity is it's own reward

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It is clearly a double negative. Rudi has always said he was let in. There was no information given by Prato or any source that indicated he had broken anything (window or door) to get in. Tesla maintains that Rudi was there a few weeks before and stole 2000 Euros but didn't have enough money to buy valueless laptops.

Please reword it for me. There is nothing that indicates Rudi broke into the nursery. Is that better

ETA - From a site called http://amanda-knox.wikispaces.com/ pro innocence

Oct. 27, 2007 (occurred in Milan) [Nursery school owner Maria Del Prato] entered the nursery school at via Plinio 16, Milan, of which she was the principal, she noticed coming out of her office a person whom she didn'ʹt know, later identified as Rudy Guede. There were no signs of a break‑in. There was some money missing from the money box, but just small change.

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You did fine. You usually don't get so heated as to call someone "stupidly wrong" and are usually more objectively rational than that. I was just worried about you.

Having had some experience in this area, I personally agree with some of the things AC has said and also some of the things you have said about this subject (stealing, burglarizing, fencing, dealing and especially fronting drugs); and depending on which side of the tracks your perspective and experience resides, you're both right, in my opinion anyway.

Thanks for the clarification, by the way. That's the Grinder we have all come to know and love,

d

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[Grinder]

a
The manufacturer's own scientists will have to read out/interpret in court what the machine data results say. If the Italian courts need a face-saving way to save themselves and turn this case around, the manufacturer being forced in court to publicly and legally repudiate Stefanoni's use of the testing machine could be the evidence and face-saving the court needs to throw Stefanoni under the bus, ruling that one bad lab tech is responsible for false DNA results which misled all the good police, prosecutors, and judges.

How do you think this would impact sales for the company? If the defense had called the company experts and subpoenaed them perhaps they could get them to testify to the machines works but I doubt they would comment on how the machine was used. They would have had better luck and still would by using a competitor's experts.

 

[Bill Williams]

Bill that was addressed to the scientist (computer tech) not you.

Since when has that stopped me? I'm on a mission to correct the internet, too!!

 

[AmyStrange]

Crap, I'm too lazy to look this up

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How do you think this would impact sales for the company? If the defense had called the company experts and subpoenaed them perhaps they could get them to testify to the machines works but I doubt they would comment on how the machine was used. They would have had better luck and still would by using a competitor's experts.

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I could swear I remember reading in this forum somewhere, and especially this thread (or maybe it was somewhere else), that the manufacturer's own literature doesn't recommend using the machine at the level Steffie said she used it at to get her readings. It increased the chances of a bad reading or that residual samples would contaminate the results or something like that.

I think it was that she cranked it up higher (or was that lower, but I'm almost sure it was higher) than the OEM's own literature recommended; but as always, I could be wrong here,

d

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[Grinder]

You did fine. You usually don't get so heated as to call someone "stupidly wrong" and are usually more objectively rational than that. I was just worried about you.

Having had some experience in this area, I personally agree with some of the things AC has said and also some of the things you have said about this subject (stealing, burglarizing, fencing, dealing and especially fronting drugs); and depending on which side of the tracks your perspective and experience resides, you're both right, in my opinion anyway.

Thanks for the clarification, by the way. That's the Grinder we have all come to know and love,

d-

Thanks for the concern. This may have put me in a mood -

You make me laugh Grinder. While I agree entirely that Rudy was NOT a drifter, the idea that Rudy was a fence is the dumbest idea you have had. Even dumber than Rudy dating Meredith. You hear he has a few computers in his apartment and you immediately jump to the conclusion that he is a fence? Fences are buying and selling things constantly. They REQUIRE that the person has money. Note that Rudy was pretty much broke when he was found on his last day in Milan​

And it not just the attacks it's the lack of consistency.

Tesla has Rudi stealin 2000 Euros a couple of weeks earlier but now he is broke.

He has him burglarizing but stealing worthless computers.

He says he couldn't be fencing in Milan because the train fare is too high but not too high to go their just for fun.

He acts like he has some knowledge of the underworld but it is obvious he just is making it up. No one said Rudi was some big time fence. All people fencing don't do it all the time and yes some work with fronted goods. But off course techie thinks Rudi stole 2000 Euro and seems not to understand that people make money fencing.

He believes CT but won't respond to the information that Rudi went to the club CT said he was bounced from on Halloween with the Spanish kids. It's like a spreadsheet has new numbers but no matter the total remains the same. CT didn't know that Rudi would be witnessed at Domus when he made the claim.