Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[Desert Fox]

Some people seem to be forgetting the burden of proof. I don't think it looks anything like Amanda. That's not the point, though. It's not up to anyone to prove it ISN'T Amanda. It's up to those who believe that it is to prove that.

It's ridiculous. It looks like Santa Claus in drag. There's no way that can be demonstrated to be Amanda, or even to be probably Amanda, and that's an end of it.

Rolfe.

Unfortunately, this is not how the court of public opinion works

 

[acbytesla]

The fact that the bag is carried on the wrong arm makes it very unlikely that it is Amanda.

With all due respect DF, I'm not sure I put a lot of stake in that analysis either. It's far too arbitrary. We could have a hundred photos of Amanda carrying a bag on the other shoulder and none on that shoulder. Does that really mean anything? Does that mean that occasionally Amanda doesn't carry a bag on that shoulder? Maybe after one side gets a little tired even?

For me, it just doesn't look like Amanda...but I also think that is a horrible image to make any real kind of identification of anyone. Then it is the practicality of the image. 15 minutes earlier Amanda is seen at Raffaele's apartment and the route this person is taking makes NO sense when you consider that. It would make little sense for Amanda to be "entering" this parking garage. If she was going to the cottage she would be leaving the parking garage if anything and even that makes little sense. It is totally out of the way.

 

[kwill]

The PGP uproar over that screenshot is just one more thing that points to how feeble the case is. This is the smoking gun? This image that could be anybody and that was dismissed by the prosecutors years ago?

If there was an actual case against AK & RS, you would be talking about it. Instead you're trying to put one more witch's hat on an innocent person.

 

[Samson]

With all due respect DF, I'm not sure I put a lot of stake in that analysis either. It's far too arbitrary. We could have a hundred photos of Amanda carrying a bag on the other shoulder and none on that shoulder. Does that really mean anything? Does that mean that occasionally Amanda doesn't carry a bag on that shoulder? Maybe after one side gets a little tired even?

For me, it just doesn't look like Amanda...but I also think that is a horrible image to make any real kind of identification of anyone. Then it is the practicality of the image. 15 minutes earlier Amanda is seen at Raffaele's apartment and the route this person is taking makes NO sense when you consider that. It would make little sense for Amanda to be "entering" this parking garage. If she was going to the cottage she would be leaving the parking garage if anything and even that makes little sense. It is totally out of the way.

Acbytesla I propose it as a helpful fact if there are no photos.
The story becomes it doesn't look like Amanda, and anyway all photographs show her carrying a bag on her right shoulder. The public can get that, and it sure would have swayed many who saw the clips, which seem to have had significant traction against Amanda.

 

[Planigale]

Some people seem to be forgetting the burden of proof. I don't think it looks anything like Amanda. That's not the point, though. It's not up to anyone to prove it ISN'T Amanda. It's up to those who believe that it is to prove that.

It's ridiculous. It looks like Santa Claus in drag. There's no way that can be demonstrated to be Amanda, or even to be probably Amanda, and that's an end of it.

Rolfe.

Unfortunately this does not seem to be how Italian courts work. It merely has to be possible to be AK, then it can be osmotically incorporated into a narrative and gains legitimacy by its relationship with other 'facts'.

As an aside although I am defensive of Stefanoni (solidarity - women in science etc.), I did come across a reminder that she (I think) said TMB is only positive in 50% of tests. Considering the literature is that TMB is a sensitive and reliable test for haemoglobin, the possibilities are that 50% of what she tests is not blood (in which case she is being disingenuous if not frankly lying), incompetent (since if done properly the test should be positive > 50%), or lying.

Unfortunately just another example of incompetence and deception on behalf the Scientific police. I think like a number of these cases the problem starts as simple incompetence, then people start trying to cover up and that is when active desperation starts.

 

[Desert Fox]

Acbytesla I propose it as a helpful fact if there are no photos.
The story becomes it doesn't look like Amanda, and anyway all photographs show her carrying a bag on her right shoulder. The public can get that, and it sure would have swayed many who saw the clips, which seem to have had significant traction against Amanda.

I was debating on how to word a response but you did about as well as I could.

 

[acbytesla]

Acbytesla I propose it as a helpful fact if there are no photos.
The story becomes it doesn't look like Amanda, and anyway all photographs show her carrying a bag on her right shoulder. The public can get that, and it sure would have swayed many who saw the clips, which seem to have had significant traction against Amanda.

I agree with you. This is a nonsense photo. I really don't think even the prosecution and police thought this was Amanda and that is why it was never used. The sadness is the way this was used in the media as somehow to build doubt amongst the generala public. What surprises me..although it shouldn't. Is how the guilters have jumped all over it as if it has meaning. The one thing it really demonstrates to me is lack of intellectual honesty of the guilters. You would think that they would have the courage to state unequivocally that this isn't Amanda Knox. You would think that they would know the details well enough to say that.

 

[carbonjam72]

CCTV images - a few responses to great comments

It's not the camera. The aspect ratio has not been preserved in those images that you are showing. Compare the background in your images to the images here. Correct your aspect ratio and then see if she still looks out of shape.

Hey DanO. - just for the record, the close-up I presented is indeed in the same "aspect ratio", as it is simply the portion of the original video images that I copy pasted to focus on the 'short & wide' person depicted. So even though the picture dimensions of the close-up are different from the dimensions of the full frames of video, there is no image distortion among any of the frames I presented, as they retain the same aspect ratio.

Some people seem to be forgetting the burden of proof. I don't think it looks anything like Amanda. That's not the point, though. It's not up to anyone to prove it ISN'T Amanda. It's up to those who believe that it is to prove that.

It's ridiculous. It looks like Santa Claus in drag. There's no way that can be demonstrated to be Amanda, or even to be probably Amanda, and that's an end of it.

Rolfe.

Amanda was 20 years old in 2007, with the famously slender physique of the elite athlete she was. The suggestion that she could be confused with this woman who is very likely, 'clinically obese', isn't just wrong, it's absurd. And it shows the quality of the prosecution's erratic mindset in its mad pursuit of these bizarre claims against two innocent young college kids from DAY 1. The false and misleading leaks to the press are part of the game plan to poison public opinion, and it stinks.

With all due respect DF, I'm not sure I put a lot of stake in that analysis either. It's far too arbitrary. We could have a hundred photos of Amanda carrying a bag on the other shoulder and none on that shoulder. Does that really mean anything? Does that mean that occasionally Amanda doesn't carry a bag on that shoulder? Maybe after one side gets a little tired even?

For me, it just doesn't look like Amanda...but I also think that is a horrible image to make any real kind of identification of anyone. Then it is the practicality of the image. 15 minutes earlier Amanda is seen at Raffaele's apartment and the route this person is taking makes NO sense when you consider that. It would make little sense for Amanda to be "entering" this parking garage. If she was going to the cottage she would be leaving the parking garage if anything and even that makes little sense. It is totally out of the way.

I agree the analysis of the bag on the shoulder is of limited value, but not nothing. But the incompatibility of body types between this woman and Amanda is glaringly obvious, IMO. (Santa Claus in drag? - not my words).
I don't want to be mean or insulting, but this isn't a close call. Look at the bulging cheek jowls in the frame the press is focused on - the second camera frame angle on the subject confirms the observation from the close-up I provided; She is obese. Not just heavy or merely overweight - legitimately obese.

So while the graininess of the image prevents a comparison of fine details of face I agree, the overall body type is perfectly identifiable from these grainy pictures, and I believe can be definitively rejected as being Amanda, by simple inspection of the images.

Moreover, I maintain, that the editorial selection of the frame where she is viewed from a side angle, is deliberately misleading as it hides this woman's manifest girth. It's not just wrong to say "it might be Amanda", it's intentionally false.

The PGP uproar over that screenshot is just one more thing that points to how feeble the case is. This is the smoking gun? This image that could be anybody and that was dismissed by the prosecutors years ago?

If there was an actual case against AK & RS, you would be talking about it. Instead you're trying to put one more witch's hat on an innocent person.

Couldn't agree more about 'fitting the witch's hat'. Except these people can't be given the benefit of the doubt that they're making a mistake because they don't know any better. They know better, and they do it anyway.

 

[carbonjam72]

Unfortunately this does not seem to be how Italian courts work. It merely has to be possible to be AK, then it can be osmotically incorporated into a narrative and gains legitimacy by its relationship with other 'facts'.

As an aside although I am defensive of Stefanoni (solidarity - women in science etc.), I did come across a reminder that she (I think) said TMB is only positive in 50% of tests. Considering the literature is that TMB is a sensitive and reliable test for haemoglobin, the possibilities are that 50% of what she tests is not blood (in which case she is being disingenuous if not frankly lying), incompetent (since if done properly the test should be positive > 50%), or lying.

Unfortunately just another example of incompetence and deception on behalf the Scientific police. I think like a number of these cases the problem starts as simple incompetence, then people start trying to cover up and that is when active desperation starts.

I'm still trying to understand how a case like this develops, and this isn't a bad model. Mignini started out with claims of satanic ritual murder, but backed off that when people weren't buying into it. The fluidity of 'motive' over the course of the trials, seems like a similar vein. I'm not sure at this point, just amazed at them.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

Sarah Gino and TMB

Unfortunately this does not seem to be how Italian courts work. It merely has to be possible to be AK, then it can be osmotically incorporated into a narrative and gains legitimacy by its relationship with other 'facts'.

As an aside although I am defensive of Stefanoni (solidarity - women in science etc.), I did come across a reminder that she (I think) said TMB is only positive in 50% of tests. Considering the literature is that TMB is a sensitive and reliable test for haemoglobin, the possibilities are that 50% of what she tests is not blood (in which case she is being disingenuous if not frankly lying), incompetent (since if done properly the test should be positive > 50%), or lying.

Unfortunately just another example of incompetence and deception on behalf the Scientific police. I think like a number of these cases the problem starts as simple incompetence, then people start trying to cover up and that is when active desperation starts.

planigale,

It was Sarah Gino who said that about 50% of luminol hits are positive by TMB. I think it is in the Massei report, but I don't have a page number handy.

 

[Desert Fox]

I was looking at the Wiki page on Wicked Attraction (also known as Couples that Kill)
There are cases where I think it probable that the couple committed the murder but reads like there was no good evidence to actually convict.
The other item I note is that there are some pretty strange motivations for murder.

 

[Samson]

I agree with you. This is a nonsense photo. I really don't think even the prosecution and police thought this was Amanda and that is why it was never used. The sadness is the way this was used in the media as somehow to build doubt amongst the generala public. What surprises me..although it shouldn't. Is how the guilters have jumped all over it as if it has meaning. The one thing it really demonstrates to me is lack of intellectual honesty of the guilters. You would think that they would have the courage to state unequivocally that this isn't Amanda Knox. You would think that they would know the details well enough to say that.

Each item of evidence against the two is manufactured. This is an axiom in a framework of innocence, so the most economic packaging of the debunking of each item is what interests me. I feel there is one locking piece needed to solve this puzzle. Not sure what it is though.

 

[Dan O.]

Hey DanO. - just for the record, the close-up I presented is indeed in the same "aspect ratio", as it is simply the portion of the original video images that I copy pasted to focus on the 'short & wide' person depicted. So even though the picture dimensions of the close-up are different from the dimensions of the full frames of video, there is no image distortion among any of the frames I presented, as they retain the same aspect ratio.

I'm not claiming that you did anything to distort the images. All of the images you presented have the same distortion. Compare the background between your images and the ones in the link I posted. In yours it looks like the drive is wide enough for two cars. In mine we see in fact it is only wide enough for one.

I simply won't accept the visual apparence of anyone in those images unless the aspect ratio can be shown to be correct or at least consistent with other known images from the same camera.

 

[acbytesla]

Hey DanO. - just for the record, the close-up I presented is indeed in the same "aspect ratio", as it is simply the portion of the original video images that I copy pasted to focus on the 'short & wide' person depicted. So even though the picture dimensions of the close-up are different from the dimensions of the full frames of video, there is no image distortion among any of the frames I presented, as they retain the same aspect ratio.

Amanda was 20 years old in 2007, with the famously slender physique of the elite athlete she was. The suggestion that she could be confused with this woman who is very likely, 'clinically obese', isn't just wrong, it's absurd. And it shows the quality of the prosecution's erratic mindset in its mad pursuit of these bizarre claims against two innocent young college kids from DAY 1. The false and misleading leaks to the press are part of the game plan to poison public opinion, and it stinks.

I agree the analysis of the bag on the shoulder is of limited value, but not nothing. But the incompatibility of body types between this woman and Amanda is glaringly obvious, IMO. (Santa Claus in drag? - not my words).
I don't want to be mean or insulting, but this isn't a close call. Look at the bulging cheek jowls in the frame the press is focused on - the second camera frame angle on the subject confirms the observation from the close-up I provided; She is obese. Not just heavy or merely overweight - legitimately obese.

So while the graininess of the image prevents a comparison of fine details of face I agree, the overall body type is perfectly identifiable from these grainy pictures, and I believe can be definitively rejected as being Amanda, by simple inspection of the images.

Moreover, I maintain, that the editorial selection of the frame where she is viewed from a side angle, is deliberately misleading as it hides this woman's manifest girth. It's not just wrong to say "it might be Amanda", it's intentionally false.

Couldn't agree more about 'fitting the witch's hat'. Except these people can't be given the benefit of the doubt that they're making a mistake because they don't know any better. They know better, and they do it anyway.

I DON'T THINK it looks like Amanda except maybe the hair and we don't really see enough of it other than to say it is remotely similar. I can't really make out the face and I don't think anyone else can either. The problem with this kind of image is how much can be distorted by light, camera angle, resizing the image and not maintaining aspect ratio, etc..etc. etc. I think you MAY be right about the fact that this person is heavier then the athletic Amanda Knox at twenty. But this person is wearing a sizable outer coat and you can stretch or widen that image very easily so what does that tell us? NOTHING.

 

[anglolawyer]

The PGP uproar over that screenshot is just one more thing that points to how feeble the case is. This is the smoking gun? This image that could be anybody and that was dismissed by the prosecutors years ago?

If there was an actual case against AK & RS, you would be talking about it. Instead you're trying to put one more witch's hat on an innocent person.

It's a condemnation of Nencini that the PGP, rather than being euphoric about his motivation (after their usual slavish fashion) are obsessing about this obviously irrelevant picture.

Oh, by the way, in case anybody missed it. Michael at PMF dot net (Fulcanelli?) has recently told a newbie there that Amanda did not buy bleach at Quintavalle's. That means he must have been lying when he told me he had a picture of the bleach receipt.

 

[acbytesla]

It's a condemnation of Nencini that the PGP, rather than being euphoric about his motivation (after their usual slavish fashion) are obsessing about this obviously irrelevant picture.

Oh, by the way, in case anybody missed it. Michael at PMF dot net (Fulcanelli?) has recently told a newbie there that Amanda did not buy bleach at Quintavalle's. That means he must have been lying when he told me he had a picture of the bleach receipt.

What??? I'm shocked. A member of the PGP lie? When we have seen such integrity out of them? I find that hard to believe.

 

[Samson]

where did you get that? they knew almost immediately that she was with the girls until 9pm.

This link I saved

http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2007/nov/13/italy.ukcrime?CMP=twt_gu

However, the Italian daily Corriere della Sera said a CCTV camera captured Knox as she let herself in by the front door at 8.43pm. Police sources were unable to confirm the newspaper's account. The moment at which the young American is said to have been filmed is 17 minutes before the estimated time of Kercher's death, as reported by the judge overseeing the inquiry. According to forensic experts, there is a margin of error of about one hour either way.

This was 11 days after the body was discovered. My guess is the pathologist had done his autopsy and had basic information when she ate. Therefore the first conclusion of time of death was accurate. I have no idea why Raffaele's defence pathologist moved it later.

 

[Magister]

I think I remember that too.

The broken down car was a Toyota Avensis. The friends car parked immediately behind it was a Citroen Picasso,one of whose occupants, Carmela Occhipinti,was asked if she had seen a dark coloured car by the cottage. She said she had not noticed any car there but that her view was obscured.

The tow truck driver testified that he arrived at around 11pm and noticed a dark car parked at the entrance to the cottage. He said it was still there when he left at around 11.15pm

 

[carbonjam72]

No visual distortion in CCTV images

I'm not claiming that you did anything to distort the images. All of the images you presented have the same distortion. Compare the background between your images and the ones in the link I posted. In yours it looks like the drive is wide enough for two cars. In mine we see in fact it is only wide enough for one.

I simply won't accept the visual apparence of anyone in those images unless the aspect ratio can be shown to be correct or at least consistent with other known images from the same camera.

Hey DanO., I did a quick visual check for the link you provided, at this address: http://murderofmeredithkercher.com/rudy-guede/

Same video frames as far as I can tell. The rounded road side curb in the lower right hand corner, and the double cement guard rail in the upper left hand corner. It's obviously the same. So, I'm confident there is no visual distortion whatsoever in the frames and images I posted.

But I appreciate your precision. Just to be sure, you really ought to double check for yourself, please don't take my word for it. It won't take you 30 seconds to confirm.

 

[Bill Williams]

The PGP uproar over that screenshot is just one more thing that points to how feeble the case is. This is the smoking gun? This image that could be anybody and that was dismissed by the prosecutors years ago?

If there was an actual case against AK & RS, you would be talking about it. Instead you're trying to put one more witch's hat on an innocent person.

It's a condemnation of Nencini that the PGP, rather than being euphoric about his motivation (after their usual slavish fashion) are obsessing about this obviously irrelevant picture.

Oh, by the way, in case anybody missed it. Michael at PMF dot net (Fulcanelli?) has recently told a newbie there that Amanda did not buy bleach at Quintavalle's. That means he must have been lying when he told me he had a picture of the bleach receipt.

Don't forget the last "gotcha" moment the PGP claimed to have had was the April Fools prank, Amanda participated in a pranked-break-in against a friend.

PGP said this was evidence of prior criminal behaviour. Most sane people said it was a stupid, not very well thought out prank for which the perpetrators had to apologize - marking them as not exactly A-list criminals.

Yet for a while that was the sum total of the case agains Amanda for the PGP. Has ANY PGP confirmed that Raffele's DNA was found on the knife blade, as per Nencini, or have they forgotten Nencini already? (I know I would if Nencini was the sole reason to suspect guilt!)

As for Anglo-Lawyer.... he knows darn well Michael from PMF has the bleach receipts.... why do we know this? Because Michael himself (after having the PMF-brand wrestled away from him by Peggy Ganong in March 2011) said so.

You can take that to the bank. I'm surprised A-L is so cynical.

ETA - oh ye: Machiavelli/Yummi was so confident that the April Fools prank was the key to understanding Knox's prior criminality, that he said that the whole of Seattle practised the Mafia code of Omerta, to conceal this form the rest of the world. These days Machivaelli does not defend Nencini.... why?

Because Machiavelli has read Nencini's report.