Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[Samson]

Where is the evidence of the glass lining up? Who is making that claim?

The best photograph of the glass lined up on the window sill was taken in the late afternoon of November 2. Prior to that there are other photographs of that window including one showing the shutters pulled closed.

It's laughable to argue that the glass lined up because the shutters were closed when the evidence shows that it was the investigators that closed those shutters thus forcing the glass to line up.

My understanding was that Massei used the alignment of the glass to support his theory that the interior shutter and the glass pane were angled into the room, and the rock was used to break the glass, which, because the exterior shutter was closed, meant the glass lined up. This proved the shutter was closed when the window was broken. To counter this someone said that Rudy pulled the shutter closed after entry, which had the same effect. Obviously this can't be proved after people have changed the scene, but Massei convicted on the glass lining up unnaturally, I read his motivation report early in my study of the case. Far be it from me to claim ultimate expertise on any aspect.

 

[Samson]

What in world are you talking about? What does the rock going through the window have to do with TOD?




82 minutes was the medium time for the TEST meal of an egg, toast and a little jam. Outlier times may be ruled out by bias but nothing else. She was most likely heavily hungover and still had alcohol in her system. But you ignore the lack of certainty for when she started eating.



Yes I'm sure your secret medico has better credentails than Raf's expert, not. Your "expert" is an idiot if he said she died soon after eating. Unless soon can include 11/2 hours to 3 hours.

Here are Introna's:

Professor of legal medicine at the University of Bari, the Director of the school of specialization in Federated University of Bari and Foggia University, obviously I'm a specialist in forensic medicine. Are the only specialist in Italy specializing in forensic pathology in America ready for operation in America as coroner.​

You have no idea. It does not appear that the girls know when she ate.



Your stamping of feet that she had to be killed before the kids left Raf's er at the time a video played will not win out. Even if she ate at 6:30 and wasn't in a poor, albeit temporary, physical condition GE can easily take three hours as per the studies of the tiny test meals.

Commencement of GE can not take three hours, no matter how many times you repeat it you are wrong. There is a GE exam that stops after two hours, demonstrating that GE is expected to begin before this time.

 

[Samson]

What in world are you talking about? What does the rock going through the window have to do with TOD?

If it can be demonstrated that the rock went through the window before Meredith got home and Rudy was inside, then an early TOD before Naruto plus travelling time logically follows.
I have laboured at the proof beyond reasonable doubt of this, and I think the world at large should be acquainted of this extreme likelihood. What is odd about that? I am only repeating Hendry, who stood out as an impartial and competent researcher when I first took an interest.

 

[acbytesla]

My recollection is that he didn't and that all times he gave were imprecise. If he did have a phone it is highly unlikely that he would note times at that point as he would freaked out.

This is not like Nara in her flat hearing a scream and then making tea.

He had a watch in his backpack.

If he had a phone, are there any records of calls he made? He claimed that he used his own SIM in the stolen phone.

So let's give him a phone. He kills Meredith right after she screams and he checks the time for what reason? Now of course this is later than 9:05 - 9:20-9:30 IIRC but use whatever time works...

Just because his responses were imprecise doesn't mean he didn't have a timepiece and a sense of time. Do you check your watch after everything you do? Probably not. Rudy said Meredith was killed around 9:30. I wear a watch and if I was ever questioned, I'm probably going to be "imprecise".

My point is the argument that "Rudy didn't know the time" may or may not have much validity. We don't really know for sure.

 

[Grinder]

Commencement of GE can not take three hours, no matter how many times you repeat it you are wrong. There is a GE exam that stops after two hours, demonstrating that GE is expected to begin before this time.

From Chris' blog:

A 2003 study by Chen et al. (J. Gastroenterology and Hepatology, 18, 41-46) determined a value of t(lag), namely 81.9 ± 17.4 minutes, with a range of 37.1 to 117.8 minutes. The authors described the test meal: “The egg [one yolk and two whites] was ingested with two slices of white bread coated with 7 g of margarine and 8 g of grape jelly, followed by 150mL water.” A paper on gastric emptying times (Hellmig et al., "Gastric emptying time of fluids and solids in healthy subjects determined by 13C breath tests: influence of age, sex and body mass index" Volume 21, Issue 12, pages 1832–1838, Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, December 2006), was published in the Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, which is peer-reviewed. Other articles cited this paper at least 25 times. These workers described their test meal: “After addition of 50 mL of low-fat milk, the egg was scrambled and fried in a pan. The solid test meal was completed by a piece of brown bread (50 g) and butter (20 g).” They showed that t(lag) for a solid meal did not follow a normal distribution. The median time was 82 minutes, with the 25% percentile at 66 min. and the 75% percentile at 102 min. Out of 82 subjects (Figure 1D), the longest value was 200 minutes, and the next longest was 170 minutes (each value corresponded to a single individual).​

You see that the 82 minute median time you use is from this study.

If math is the same here as whatever planet you're on 200 minutes equals 3 hours and 20 minutes. The test meal is not the fatty meal Meredith ate. The volume of the meal is much less than the 500 ml.

If Meredith ate at 8 which is certainly possible then even the 75% puts the time at 9:42.

ETA _ From your Colorado favorite:

The rate of gastric emptying is strongly influenced by both volume and composition of gastric contents, which makes considerable sense. Consider three examples of something you might ingest and try to anticipate which rate of gastric emptying would be most appropriate:

 

[Grinder]

Just because his responses were imprecise doesn't mean he didn't have a timepiece and a sense of time. Do you check your watch after everything you do? Probably not. Rudy said Meredith was killed around 9:30. I wear a watch and if I was ever questioned, I'm probably going to be "imprecise".

My point is the argument that "Rudy didn't know the time" may or may not have much validity. We don't really know for sure.

No we don't know for sure. Certainly relying on Rudi's time testimony of the scream isn't reliable at all.

I don't have a watch anymore but do look at my computer, watch, car clock and the clock alarm.

Tesla I think you will agree that if the scream story is true it could have been 9:05 or 9:55.

 

[kwill]

It does not appear that the girls know when she ate.

And neither do you, but it doesn't prevent you from speculating about what the "girls" did that night and when they did it, including an assertion that they "probably" didn't watch the end of their movie.

One of the minor things that makes me cringe about this hideous case, btw, is that Meredith spent the last evening of her young life watching such a deeply sappy movie. My own daughters thought it was good when they were about 14 and 16 . . . but if you haven't seen it, take my word: it's sentimental, manipulative garbage. That said, the last few minutes of The Notebook are supposed to be the payoff for the whole sad experience. The end is why people watch it, so I'd be interested in what exactly has convinced you that they got bored and stopped it.

One thing we do know happened that evening is that Meredith ate, and we know that some of her meal consisted of the famous apple dessert. Bits of that dessert could be identified at her autopsy. We know from the same autopsy that none of her meal had been digested enough to leave her stomach at the moment she died. One of the "girls" testified in court that they had dessert about an hour before they left. You don't seem to believe her, which is also interesting. Why not?

We also know that Meredith began her last walk home at about 8:45 pm, and that she made her last attempt to phone her mum 11 minutes after that.

That's what we know.

When Meredith was putting on her jacket to go home, then, Amanda was at Raffaele's, talking with his friend, Ms Popovich, and learning that he wouldn't need to give her a lift to the bus station after all.

Then -- 14 minutes after Meredith's final phone call home, the film Amanda and Raffaele had been watching -- Amelie -- ended. It was 9:10 pm.

So we have Meredith in her flat with her full stomach and her undigested, eaten-at-7:45-pm dessert just before 9 pm. That makes it 85 minutes since dessert at 9 o'clock, unless there is a sound reason to believe that the "girl" who testified to when they ate was off in one direction or another.

We have Amanda & Raffaele's movie ending at 9:10, and Raffaele downloading a cartoon 16 minutes later, at 9:26 pm.

Undigested dessert, eaten at 7:45 pm.
TOD?

 

[Samson]

From Chris' blog:

A 2003 study by Chen et al. (J. Gastroenterology and Hepatology, 18, 41-46) determined a value of t(lag), namely 81.9 ± 17.4 minutes, with a range of 37.1 to 117.8 minutes. The authors described the test meal: “The egg [one yolk and two whites] was ingested with two slices of white bread coated with 7 g of margarine and 8 g of grape jelly, followed by 150mL water.” A paper on gastric emptying times (Hellmig et al., "Gastric emptying time of fluids and solids in healthy subjects determined by 13C breath tests: influence of age, sex and body mass index" Volume 21, Issue 12, pages 1832–1838, Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, December 2006), was published in the Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, which is peer-reviewed. Other articles cited this paper at least 25 times. These workers described their test meal: “After addition of 50 mL of low-fat milk, the egg was scrambled and fried in a pan. The solid test meal was completed by a piece of brown bread (50 g) and butter (20 g).” They showed that t(lag) for a solid meal did not follow a normal distribution. The median time was 82 minutes, with the 25% percentile at 66 min. and the 75% percentile at 102 min. Out of 82 subjects (Figure 1D), the longest value was 200 minutes, and the next longest was 170 minutes (each value corresponded to a single individual).​

You see that the 82 minute median time you use is from this study.

If math is the same here as whatever planet you're on 200 minutes equals 3 hours and 20 minutes. The test meal is not the fatty meal Meredith ate. The volume of the meal is much less than the 500 ml.

If Meredith ate at 8 which is certainly possible then even the 75% puts the time at 9:42.

ETA _ From your Colorado favorite:

The rate of gastric emptying is strongly influenced by both volume and composition of gastric contents, which makes considerable sense. Consider three examples of something you might ingest and try to anticipate which rate of gastric emptying would be most appropriate:

But why expect the two outliers to be relevant? Once again, there is the 120 minute study which would be pointless if a longer time to commence emptying was commonplace. A trial that would help would be to replicate the meal with half a dozen 20 year old female volunteers in a GE scan. The procedure is allegedly completely safe.
Do you see my point about this two hour study?
Unfortunately the page won't load, but I posted it a few times already.

If we take 7 30, and add two hours, 9 30 leaves the Naruto alibi intact. Ok you will cite the meal designed for a speedy test. Fair enough, but two hours is an outlier for this test, and 7 30 is an outlier for meal commencement. The high probability of a valid Naruto alibi remains.

It would be helpful to have the 3rd 4th and 5th etc extreme times from the Chen paper

 

[Grinder]

And neither do you, but it doesn't prevent you from speculating about what the "girls" did that night and when they did it, including an assertion that they "probably" didn't watch the end of their movie.

One of the girls stated that they left before 9 because of being tired. No where in the testimony did I find any one that said they left after the movie or any such description. I doubt you've put any effort into delving into the testimony. The only reason this came up was because someone was doing a time line based on the length of the movie.

One of the minor things that makes me cringe about this hideous case, btw, is that Meredith spent the last evening of her young life watching such a deeply sappy movie. My own daughters thought it was good when they were about 14 and 16 . . . but if you haven't seen it, take my word: it's sentimental, manipulative garbage. That said, the last few minutes of The Notebook are supposed to be the payoff for the whole sad experience. The end is why people watch it, so I'd be interested in what exactly has convinced you that they got bored and stopped it.

See above and thanks for saving me that 122 minutes.

One thing we do know happened that evening is that Meredith ate, and we know that some of her meal consisted of the famous apple dessert. Bits of that dessert could be identified at her autopsy. We know from the same autopsy that none of her meal had been digested enough to leave her stomach at the moment she died. One of the "girls" testified in court that they had dessert about an hour before they left. You don't seem to believe her, which is also interesting. Why not?

I ask you to read the testimony before the harshness. If she ate at 7:45 that doesn't at preclude TOD after 9:45. It isn't that I don't believe her but rather they don't seem very sure of times. I think they weren't keeping track of the time anymore than Raf and Amanda were.

When Meredith was putting on her jacket to go home, then, Amanda was at Raffaele's, talking with his friend, Ms Popovich, and learning that he wouldn't need to give her a lift to the bus station after all.

Then -- 14 minutes after Meredith's final phone call home, the film Amanda and Raffaele had been watching -- Amelie -- ended. It was 9:10 pm.

So we have Meredith in her flat with her full stomach and her undigested, eaten-at-7:45-pm dessert just before 9 pm. That makes it 85 minutes since dessert at 9 o'clock, unless there is a sound reason to believe that the "girl" who testified to when they ate was off in one direction or another.

We have Amanda & Raffaele's movie ending at 9:10, and Raffaele downloading a cartoon 16 minutes later, at 9:26 pm.

Undigested dessert, eaten at 7:45 pm.
TOD?

The GE science certainly allows for GE to last long enough for them to be there.

 

[Grinder]

But why expect the two outliers to be relevant? Once again, there is the 120 minute study which would be pointless if a longer time to commence emptying was commonplace. A trial that would help would be to replicate the meal with half a dozen 20 year old female volunteers in a GE scan. The procedure is allegedly completely safe.
Do you see my point about this two hour study?
Unfortunately the page won't load, but I posted it a few times already.

If we take 7 30, and add two hours, 9 30 leaves the Naruto alibi intact. Ok you will cite the meal designed for a speedy test. Fair enough, but two hours is an outlier for this test, and 7 30 is an outlier for meal commencement. The high probability of a valid Naruto alibi remains.

It would be helpful to have the 3rd 4th and 5th etc extreme times from the Chen paper

You were wrong. You refuse to acknowledge that the tests were of small meals designed to empty faster for obvious reasons. I understand why you point to allege that there is a 120 minute study but I've not seen anything of the sort. There could be many reasons why they would do a shorter study. Cite it.

Three hours and 20 minutes is the outlier for the mini meal with few fats. The meal the girls prepared was full of fat - cheese and ice cream (gelato is even worse) and of course the Mach factor of unleavened bread.

7:30 is definitely late for the start of their meal BUT no one is even asked when Meredith started eating.

It would be great to take x number of girls similar to Meredith and have them drink like fish the night before and then eat 500 ml of pizza and apple crisp with ice cream.

 

[anglolawyer]

Innocent or they weren't there mean exactly the same thing. You are stuck in circular reasoning (using a polite word).

Of course the classic life insurance just taken out or the will changed a day before the "accidental" death are suspicious. Of course if there is a clear motive in any crime it makes the case easier but without evidence motive isn't enough and with enough evidence motive isn't needed.

No matter how this murder came down it didn't make sense or need a motive.

They didn't prove guilt BRD and that's all that matters.

Motive is evidence, Grinder.

 

[anglolawyer]

Yes, but it makes sense to tell a story that coheres with or isn't likely to be contradicted by reliable evidence. That's why Guede's timing of the scream is significant. And that's why he couldn't accuse Amanda and Raffaele too early on.

I agree. My point concerned another poster's criticism of Nencini cherry picking Guede. I was saying we all do that.

 

[acbytesla]

No we don't know for sure. Certainly relying on Rudi's time testimony of the scream isn't reliable at all.

I don't have a watch anymore but do look at my computer, watch, car clock and the clock alarm.

Tesla I think you will agree that if the scream story is true it could have been 9:05 or 9:55.

Yes, I don't think anyone else heard Meredith's scream or if they heard it didn't discern it as a scream.

So we are totally are at the mercy of the digestion, the anecdotal evidence and Rudy's testimony. I think Rudy's testimony about the time is reliable...to a degree. I don't think Rudy lied about the time as there is no reason for Rudy to lie about the time. My guess like yours is that Rudy could be off as much as a half hour either way..but unlikely to be farther off than that.

But given the digestion evidence, I'd tend to believe that if Rudy was off, it is much more likely that it was earlier rather than later.

 

[acbytesla]

Let me put it this way Grinder. I think of it in terms of setting odds based on the available evidence. I'd say that there is probably a 40 percent chance that Meredith was killed between 9:15 and 9:35 a 25 percent chance she was killed between 9:00 and 9:15 and 25 percent chance between 9:35 and 9:50 and a 7 percent chance she was killed between 9:50 and 10:00 and a Zero percent chance she was killed after 10:13.

How's that for a bookie???

 

[anglolawyer]

Let me put it this way Grinder. I think of it in terms of setting odds based on the available evidence. I'd say that there is probably a 40 percent chance that Meredith was killed between 9:15 and 9:35 a 25 percent chance she was killed between 9:00 and 9:15 and 25 percent chance between 9:35 and 9:50 and a 7 percent chance she was killed between 9:50 and 10:00 and a Zero percent chance she was killed after 10:13.

How's that for a bookie???

Shockingly bad. That leaves a 3% she is still alive

 

[JREF2010]

Nencini finally gets around to believing Rudy Guede.

Nencini is no different than Matteini, he actually resembles her more than Micheli's fantasy and Massei's fiction, imo.

The motives are far fetched and Nencini must have spent more time reading the earliest case documents and maybe fell asleep reading the Hellman court documents. (or didnt understand any of the science).

Matteini is proof how wrong these Italian Judges can be in this case.

 

[acbytesla]

Shockingly bad. That leaves a 3% she is still alive

There is that chance... the remaining 3 percent was for between 10:00 and 10:13 or that the British girls killed her and dumped her at the cottage.

 

[carbonjam72]

TOD - John Douglas says 10pm

Let me put it this way Grinder. I think of it in terms of setting odds based on the available evidence. I'd say that there is probably a 40 percent chance that Meredith was killed between 9:15 and 9:35 a 25 percent chance she was killed between 9:00 and 9:15 and 25 percent chance between 9:35 and 9:50 and a 7 percent chance she was killed between 9:50 and 10:00 and a Zero percent chance she was killed after 10:13.

How's that for a bookie???

I'm curious why John Douglas pegs it at 10pm, and what else that does for timelines? Not too much maybe. When were the calls to Meredith's bank? Could they have been made from the cottage? Did Rudy have time to go downstairs, get a change of clothes, and still leave in time to be spotted on the steps by the couple coming the other direction? 10 pm might fit that later sighting, assuming it was Rudy, better than an earlier TOD.

After all, all Rudy had to do was be quiet and bide his time on the toilet on the other side of the house. Wait for Meredith to go into her room and then try to leave out the front door. But the front door only locks with a key, and presumably only opens with a key, so Rudy was locked in, and then what are his options, going out of Filomena's window? Maybe he thought he could just rape Meredith and get away with it, so he approaches her and she panics, and then he has to kill her?

Who knows? Besides Rudy, anyway.

 

[Grinder]

Let me put it this way Grinder. I think of it in terms of setting odds based on the available evidence. I'd say that there is probably a 40 percent chance that Meredith was killed between 9:15 and 9:35 a 25 percent chance she was killed between 9:00 and 9:15 and 25 percent chance between 9:35 and 9:50 and a 7 percent chance she was killed between 9:50 and 10:00 and a Zero percent chance she was killed after 10:13.

How's that for a bookie???

Sure. If there is only a 7% chance that she was killed after 9:50 that is enough that Naruto doesn't clear them. And that's all I've been saying.

There is no doubt that probabilities based on GE and other factors makes it quite likely she was murdered before 9:30, but quite likely doesn't prove innocence.

If there was no doubt a person shot a gun but the chances of killing the victim was one in 100 would that be enough to set them free? I know the analogy isn't perfect but my point is that there isn't a way to prove them innocent with GE or anything else. They need not prove there innocence and the ILE didn't do the job but I don't agree with people contending this will win the day.

 

[acbytesla]

I'm curious why John Douglas pegs it at 10pm, and what else that does for timelines? Not too much maybe. When were the calls to Meredith's bank? Could they have been made from the cottage? Did Rudy have time to go downstairs, get a change of clothes, and still leave in time to be spotted on the steps by the couple coming the other direction? 10 pm might fit that later sighting, assuming it was Rudy, better than an earlier TOD.

After all, all Rudy had to do was be quiet and bide his time on the toilet on the other side of the house. Wait for Meredith to go into her room and then try to leave out the front door. But the front door only locks with a key, and presumably only opens with a key, so Rudy was locked in, and then what are his options, going out of Filomena's window? Maybe he thought he could just rape Meredith and get away with it, so he approaches her and she panics, and then he has to kill her?

Who knows? Besides Rudy, anyway.

I think Douglass is pegging it to the two strange calls at 9:58 and 10:00 which were the calls to the bank and the couple. I don't think the couple saw Rudy although they could have, they could only identify the guy was black. Surely there other black men in Perugia.. I also don't think there is any evidence that Rudy changed his clothes and unless they were in his napsack, I don't think he did. I've never read any evidence that any one's clothes were missing. My perspective is that Rudy did not go up those steps but down through the ravine and doubled back. Nobody is going notice any bloody clothes that he might be wearing in the woods or the dark park. He certainly wants to avoid any place that is well lit.

Does he have to kill her? Of course not, but what is he doing in the cottage? Meredith is dating Rudy's friend and there he is inside her home having broken the window to get in. Meredith knows Rudy on site. Is she going to keep quiet about this? Or is she certainly going to call the police and Rudy was picked up by the cops only days before in Milan. You don't think the cops in Perugia would know that? Rudy would all of a sudden become persona non grata with a lot of people in Perugia. Is he going to get a break and released again for a second break in within a week?

Also, there is a type of burglar referred to as a sexual burglar. While real professional burglars will get in and get out of house right away. In, out steal what they think is valuable and get out. Sexual burglars, will break in and tempt fate, they will make themselves at home...just like Rudy did at the nursery, and what he was doing at the cottage and probably what he did at Ms. Diaz's home.

Sexual burglars get an adrenaline rush invading others space..the financial reward is almost secondary. These are the very dangerous burglars. They are the type likely to assault, rape and possibly kill anyone that might discover them.