Continuation Part Eight: Discussion of the Amanda Knox/Raffaele Sollecito case

[Grinder]

The sole source that I know for this, "Knox confessed to her mother" lie is the McCall wiki, which apparently Ergon is now editing.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/why-amanda-knox-guilty-behind-scenes-meredith-kercher-murder-verdict-1434677

​

They just make things up.

I'm pretty sure Vogt or Nadeau wrote about it - you should investigate.

 

[Samson]

You just keep repeating this and it isn't known. There are far too many variables that have not been established. It is not known when she began eating nor what she ate.

If she waited until the apple crisp came out at 7:45 or 8 then 9:30 or ten is not in any way out of the question.

I doubt that had they taken the temperature immediately that the TOD would be narrowed to a time range that would make any difference. They didn't know when the duvet was put on, they didn't know what the ambient temperature was inside (was the heat on or was the door open) and more.

It is highly unusual for the exact time to be so important.

But the reason I keep repeating this is because I am satisfied the facts are irrefutable. Rudy was in the house before 9pm. It is not confirmation bias to posit digestion stopping about then. It is an observation supported by the independent fact of Rudy's presence, proven by the window, inferred noise evidence, and when it is acceptable for even a moderately rational person to create that noise. 9pm becomes a fixed data point, and the time of meal commencement remains variable, but all medical statistics point to a later than 6 30 time. I can't believe that the forgotten killer book suggests 10pm, but I haven't read the books.
I don't agree with your position, which I think is that the uncertainty is compounded by the british girls' conflicting testimony, but I will continue the discussion ad nauseum

 

[Chris_Halkides]

iron or manganese

Really in reference to the Luminol prints he said contaminated?

I don't believe that we talked specifically about the luminol prints. However, it should have been applied much earlier also, and it should only have been applied if they kept the apartment pristine by forensic standards. Consider the blobs in Filomena's room, and also consider that the traffic in the apartment may have moved either DNA or blood or both. As for the prints in the hallway, they may be much older than crime. It is possible that they are transition metal ions (iron is a good guess, but I wouldn't rule out manganese, either) which have become bonded to the tile.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

respected British journalist

The fake, Edward McCall wiki is the source for an otherwise respected British journalist writing that Amanda also accused Lumumba to her mother, in a secretly recorded police tape.

Bill,

What British journalist? That was my original question. And why should we respect him or her, when he or she cannot be bothered to do thorough research.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

time of dessert

If she waited until the apple crisp came out at 7:45 or 8 then 9:30 or ten is not in any way out of the question.

Do you have a citation for the apple crisp coming out at 8?

 

[acbytesla]

It is not self-evident to someone who is emotionally or intellectually invested in finding someone guilty. However, even if one is certain that Amanda and Raffaele are guilty, he or she should still ultimately check an impulse to disregard legal or forensic precedent.

William Roper: So, now you give the Devil the benefit of law!
Sir Thomas More: Yes! What would you do? Cut a great road through the law
to get after the Devil?
"William Roper: Yes, I'd cut down every law in England to do that!
Sir Thomas More: Oh? And when the last law was down, and the Devil turned
'round on you, where would you hide, Roper, the laws all being flat? This
country is planted thick with laws, from coast to coast, Man's laws, not
God's! And if you cut them down, and you're just the man to do it, do you
really think you could stand upright in the winds that would blow then?
Yes, I'd give the Devil benefit of law, for my own safety's sake!"

From the movie "A Man for All Seasons," courtesy of the IMDB.

Fantastic movie.

 

[Planigale]

Do you have a citation for the apple crisp coming out at 8?

My specialist subject; crumble not crisp please. given that they are English students almost certainly they will be using a Delia recipe. I have previously run through the timing on this. Almost certainly the crumble went in the oven before the movie started (that's what one does). Centre shelf 200C 45minutes, leave to cool for 15 minutes. They ate in mid movie, my best estimate is in the oven about 18.30 after taking the pizza out so they would eat the pizza about 18.30 and the crumble about 19.30. Meredith leaves after movie finished about 20.30.

 

[Grinder]

But the reason I keep repeating this is because I am satisfied the facts are irrefutable. Rudy was in the house before 9pm. It is not confirmation bias to posit digestion stopping about then. It is an observation supported by the independent fact of Rudy's presence, proven by the window, inferred noise evidence, and when it is acceptable for even a moderately rational person to create that noise. 9pm becomes a fixed data point, and the time of meal commencement remains variable, but all medical statistics point to a later than 6 30 time. I can't believe that the forgotten killer book suggests 10pm, but I haven't read the books.
I don't agree with your position, which I think is that the uncertainty is compounded by the british girls' conflicting testimony, but I will continue the discussion ad nauseum

You are satisfied but you don't have any facts. They clearly do not say when she began to eat. It is not clear when the pizza was ready but YOU are satisfied that the FACTS are irrefutable. WHAT FACTS?

Whether it is confirmation bias or not isn't the issue. The issue is that There is no hard time for Meredith's meal starting. Dempsey claims that the other girls said she didn't feel well and didn't eat when they did. It is of no importance when they ate and that is the only time range we have and that goes from 5:30 to 6:30.

There is no noise evidence unless you wish to use Rudi (no watch) Guede or perhaps Amanda's statement about Patrick.

The defense expert for Raf put the TOD between 9:30 and 10:30.

There is no reason for people that believe she wasn't shown to be guilty BRD to repeat such statements that can't be proven with what we know now.

It lowers the credibility of the entire argument when these kind of assertions are just repeated ad nauseum. Even a seven o'clock eating time for a healthy person eating a tiny test meal had up to 3 hours and 20 minutes before GE.

Even if you wish to believe Rudi she didn't die until 9:20 or 9:30 BUT HE HAD NO WATCH as demonstrated by estimates of other times that night.

 

[Grinder]

My specialist subject; crumble not crisp please. given that they are English students almost certainly they will be using a Delia recipe. I have previously run through the timing on this. Almost certainly the crumble went in the oven before the movie started (that's what one does). Centre shelf 200C 45minutes, leave to cool for 15 minutes. They ate in mid movie, my best estimate is in the oven about 18.30 after taking the pizza out so they would eat the pizza about 18.30 and the crumble about 19.30. Meredith leaves after movie finished about 20.30.

I think little of your knowledge of the apple crisp and I doubt it went down as you suggest. They most likely baked their pizza at well above 400 degrees which is far too hot for a decent crisp, made of course with the tartest of apples the Granny Smith not the inferior Braeburn.

After the pizza they would cool the oven to 350 and bake the crisp for the required 35 minutes and then let it cool for 10 minutes before loading it up with ice cream, including coffee flavored, yuck for a crisp.

There is no indication that the movie finished in the testimony I've seen and in fact they said that they left early because of the long previous night. To me it sounded as a reason they didn't finish the movie but it wasn't clear.

If one bothers to read their testimony it is clear that they started and stopped the movie and looked at picture and talked about people back home (most likely thinking how sad that those people couldn't eat Italian food)

 

[acbytesla]

Great idea to use google maps to view the locales. Trouble is, we don' know when the google survey was done, and there may have been changes before or after the google views were captured. But old growth and old landmarks recorded after the crime, are very likely to give a similar, but I would strain my eyes over finding minute elements. As a general guide, great idea.

Well I can't 100 percent verify that the brush was there in 2007, That said, the high embankment that separates Lana's home from the street certainly looks like it has been there since the beginning of time.

 

[Grinder]

Do you have a citation for the apple crisp coming out at 8?

They said they ate the crisp one hour before they left at about 8:45. I've posted it before and come from their testimony which I found on Amanda's page. I also cited your friend Candace saying that the girls said Meredith didn't eat right away because she felt poorly. In fact the cite came from your blog

Have you found any studies on what binge drinking does to digestion over the next 12 hours?

ETA - the only thing I can find on it now says that she didn't eat all of her pizza. 500 ml is about 2/3 of what a bottle of wine holds which means she must have eaten a lot of crisp.

 

[bri1]

All theorists pick and choose what to believe of Guede.

Yes, but it makes sense to tell a story that coheres with or isn't likely to be contradicted by reliable evidence. That's why Guede's timing of the scream is significant. And that's why he couldn't accuse Amanda and Raffaele too early on.

 

[Chris_Halkides]

She did not finish her pizza

They said they ate the crisp one hour before they left at about 8:45. I've posted it before and come from their testimony which I found on Amanda's page. I also cited your friend Candace saying that the girls said Meredith didn't eat right away because she felt poorly. In fact the cite came from your blog

Have you found any studies on what binge drinking does to digestion over the next 12 hours?

Candace said that Meredith did not finish her pizza (that may have come via Sophie), which is not quite the same thing. I have not seen anything on binge drinking and digestion. I suggest rereading what I have previously said and not said about Lalli. Your characterization of it about a week ago was not accurate.

 

[Grinder]

I just watched "Witness for the Prosecution" for 1957 pretty cool.

 

[Samson]

You are satisfied but you don't have any facts. They clearly do not say when she began to eat. It is not clear when the pizza was ready but YOU are satisfied that the FACTS are irrefutable. WHAT FACTS?

Whether it is confirmation bias or not isn't the issue. The issue is that There is no hard time for Meredith's meal starting. Dempsey claims that the other girls said she didn't feel well and didn't eat when they did. It is of no importance when they ate and that is the only time range we have and that goes from 5:30 to 6:30.

There is no noise evidence unless you wish to use Rudi (no watch) Guede or perhaps Amanda's statement about Patrick.

The defense expert for Raf put the TOD between 9:30 and 10:30.

There is no reason for people that believe she wasn't shown to be guilty BRD to repeat such statements that can't be proven with what we know now.

It lowers the credibility of the entire argument when these kind of assertions are just repeated ad nauseum. Even a seven o'clock eating time for a healthy person eating a tiny test meal had up to 3 hours and 20 minutes before GE.

Even if you wish to believe Rudi she didn't die until 9:20 or 9:30 BUT HE HAD NO WATCH as demonstrated by estimates of other times that night.

My noise evidence is well explained, the noise had to be major, due to the ballistics and forensics revealed by the police photographer on the day. It could only occur when there was a supposition there was no one in the house, and certainly not a corpse whose presence it is desirable to conceal.
GE begins normally at 82 minutes, Colerado, outlier times are sensibly ruled out by the probability curve and the absence of evidence of a medical condition in Meredith.
What seems likely to me is that Meredith was still thinking about eating the pizza, and the apple crunch came out, and she hurriedly ate the pizza then the desert. If Raffaele's defence expert said 9 30 to 10 30 he was wrong about the range, 9 to 9 30 is supported by the autopsy. I presented the scientific papers to an independent medico, and his final statement was she died soon after eating.
I posted this and I stand by it.
It is likely she ate her entire meal at 7 30

What these desperate kids need is a simple explanation to preclude their involvement, and I am acting in totally good faith, in presenting a composite scenario of the break in and gastric evidence.
I hope some one comes up with a better idea that people actually take notice of.

 

[Desert Fox]

With the arguing about the gastric evidence, assuming that we just don't know, does that really help the prosecution (using they were not off the rails.)

 

[acbytesla]

You are satisfied but you don't have any facts. They clearly do not say when she began to eat. It is not clear when the pizza was ready but YOU are satisfied that the FACTS are irrefutable. WHAT FACTS?

Whether it is confirmation bias or not isn't the issue. The issue is that There is no hard time for Meredith's meal starting. Dempsey claims that the other girls said she didn't feel well and didn't eat when they did. It is of no importance when they ate and that is the only time range we have and that goes from 5:30 to 6:30.

There is no noise evidence unless you wish to use Rudi (no watch) Guede or perhaps Amanda's statement about Patrick.

The defense expert for Raf put the TOD between 9:30 and 10:30.

There is no reason for people that believe she wasn't shown to be guilty BRD to repeat such statements that can't be proven with what we know now.

It lowers the credibility of the entire argument when these kind of assertions are just repeated ad nauseum. Even a seven o'clock eating time for a healthy person eating a tiny test meal had up to 3 hours and 20 minutes before GE.

Even if you wish to believe Rudi she didn't die until 9:20 or 9:30 BUT HE HAD NO WATCH as demonstrated by estimates of other times that night.

I've asked this question before and I'll ask it AGAIN. How do you know he didn't have a watch?...or a phone? People say this, but he had a watch only days before when he was in Milan. BTW, just because he may not have had a cell phone contract doesn't mean he didn't have a burner phone or even a stolen phone that he might use for a few days and throw away.

 

[Dan O.]

I think glass outside the building would be unexpected. Remember the ledge is wide. Rudy threw this rock with adrenaline fuelled force, with the accuracy of the skilled amateur basketballer that he is. When he pulled the shutter closed to conceal his activity, the glass all lined up.The glass fragment is embedded with velocity remote from the timber, no pushing action could ever replicate this. Practical people from downunder see this quite intuitively

Where is the evidence of the glass lining up? Who is making that claim?

The best photograph of the glass lined up on the window sill was taken in the late afternoon of November 2. Prior to that there are other photographs of that window including one showing the shutters pulled closed.

It's laughable to argue that the glass lined up because the shutters were closed when the evidence shows that it was the investigators that closed those shutters thus forcing the glass to line up.

 

[Grinder]

My noise evidence is well explained, the noise had to be major, due to the ballistics and forensics revealed by the police photographer on the day. It could only occur when there was a supposition there was no one in the house, and certainly not a corpse whose presence it is desirable to conceal.

What in world are you talking about? What does the rock going through the window have to do with TOD?

GE begins normally at 82 minutes, Colerado, outlier times are sensibly ruled out by the probability curve and the absence of evidence of a medical condition in Meredith.

82 minutes was the medium time for the TEST meal of an egg, toast and a little jam. Outlier times may be ruled out by bias but nothing else. She was most likely heavily hungover and still had alcohol in her system. But you ignore the lack of certainty for when she started eating.

What seems likely to me is that Meredith was still thinking about eating the pizza, and the apple crunch came out, and she hurriedly ate the pizza then the desert. If Raffaele's defence expert said 9 30 to 10 30 he was wrong about the range, 9 to 9 30 is supported by the autopsy. I presented the scientific papers to an independent medico, and his final statement was she died soon after eating.

Yes I'm sure your secret medico has better credentails than Raf's expert, not. Your "expert" is an idiot if he said she died soon after eating. Unless soon can include 11/2 hours to 3 hours.

Here are Introna's:

Professor of legal medicine at the University of Bari, the Director of the school of specialization in Federated University of Bari and Foggia University, obviously I'm a specialist in forensic medicine. Are the only specialist in Italy specializing in forensic pathology in America ready for operation in America as coroner.​

I posted this and I stand by it.
It is likely she ate her entire meal at 7 30

You have no idea. It does not appear that the girls know when she ate.

What these desperate kids need is a simple explanation to preclude their involvement, and I am acting in totally good faith, in presenting a composite scenario of the break in and gastric evidence.
I hope some one comes up with a better idea that people actually take notice of.

Your stamping of feet that she had to be killed before the kids left Raf's er at the time a video played will not win out. Even if she ate at 6:30 and wasn't in a poor, albeit temporary, physical condition GE can easily take three hours as per the studies of the tiny test meals.

 

[Grinder]

I've asked this question before and I'll ask it AGAIN. How do you know he didn't have a watch?...or a phone? People say this, but he had a watch only days before when he was in Milan. BTW, just because he may not have had a cell phone contract doesn't mean he didn't have a burner phone or even a stolen phone that he might use for a few days and throw away.

My recollection is that he didn't and that all times he gave were imprecise. If he did have a phone it is highly unlikely that he would note times at that point as he would freaked out.

This is not like Nara in her flat hearing a scream and then making tea.

He had a watch in his backpack.

If he had a phone, are there any records of calls he made? He claimed that he used his own SIM in the stolen phone.

So let's give him a phone. He kills Meredith right after she screams and he checks the time for what reason? Now of course this is later than 9:05 - 9:20-9:30 IIRC but use whatever time works...