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Would Attacking Iran Be Worth It?

North Korea's Kim Jong Il, on the other hand, is a model of gentility and diplomacy. Pakistan and India, also members of the nuclear club, have never at any time vowed to destroy one another. It's very fortunate for us that all the countries who have nukes have been held to your high standards before acquiring these weapons.

Ok, so lets just give nukes to every nut bag on the planet. Lets put Osama on the top of the list. Come on. Why let another crazy get a nuke. Just because some questionable countries already have nukes is not a very good argument for letting Iran have a nuke. Im sure a lot of people would sleep better at night if the countries you mentioned didn't have nukes. However, the countries you listed for various reasons seem less dangerous with nukes than Iran.

North Korea's economy has been in the dumper for some time now; mostly getting by on international donations. I seriously doubt NK has the money to continually sustain a nuclear program. If they truly even have a nuke.

Pakistan has been a very good ally of the United States and is trying to fight terrorism. However, I am worried that if their country were to fall ill to internal pressure and collapse we could have a serious problem on our hands.

India is quickly becoming a very prosperous nation that has too much at stake to do anything stupid with their nukes.

I want to make one thing clear. I am all for responsible countries acquiring nukes if they desire. But not Iran, and I wish NK didnt have one either.
 
That is purely hypothetical, and probably wrong. Japan was pretty much dead in the water already after the Battle of Midway. Besides, losing American soldiers is still no excuse for the mass killing of civilians.

They attacked an air force base, clearly a tactical military target. While it is not in doubt who started it, the two attacks are not comparable.


That is possible, yet they haven't campaigned to have nukes banned. Obviously their horror at the devastation by nuclear weapons does have some bounds.

But again, I'm not trying to dredge up this as a historical excuse for Iran getting nuclear weapons. We made a mistake and we have learned from it. But we should just be careful who we finger as irresponsible.

Hindsight tells us that now (reference to Japan dead in the water), but when WW2 was still going on they had no idea what to expect. Bombing seemed the logical answer.

And granted they attacked a naval base, but that is what brought us into the war against Japan. There act of aggression, not ours.
 
No sane person wants Iran to have a nuclear weapon or the ability to produce one. But most experts agree that inorder to effectively ruin Iran's nuclear capabilities we would have to strike multiple targets, some of which are deep under ground.

Even if it was possible to destroy every single bit of their nuclear program (which most doubt), Iran would surely retaliate by attacking Israel, attacking American forces in Iraq, and maybe even launching terror attacks in the USA. They can't make nukes yet..but they surely can make lots of dirty bombs.

So, is destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities worth war? I guess some would say its better to face dirty bombs and conventional attacks, then an actual nuclear weapon in New York City.

Tough decisions are upon us in the next year or two.


Sorry for the late answer: I see no problem about the Iranian Nuclear Facility since the western World have the same privileges and also have helped Iran to get a "nuclear country". Also Iran didn't threatened the US to attack them, so the politics about the Issue seems to be exaggerated and somewhat paranoid.

Who are we to dictate other states if we also have nuclear weapons? That's a pretty hypocritical attitude, isn't it?
 
Well...I suppose this is something like progress. But you're still making me guess at what your position is.

Are you saying that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon because they will use it offensively instead of defensively and that is the reason why we should attack them now?

If that is your position, we will at least have a starting point.

You did not give any indication of your position in this post, should I assume that you think a bad guy would use a gun nicely?
 
They attacked an air force base, clearly a tactical military target. While it is not in doubt who started it, the two attacks are not comparable.
What? They attacked Pearl Harbor, a Naval Base, and also attacked Hickam Field, an Army base (Army Air Corps.)
But again, I'm not trying to dredge up this as a historical excuse for Iran getting nuclear weapons. We made a mistake and we have learned from it. But we should just be careful who we finger as irresponsible.
Oh? The US has been using nuclear power, and maintaining its nuclear stockpile, responsibly for some 62 years. Where do you get the idea that somehow the US has no street cred on how, and who, rates the "responsible" label? The French are responsible. The Brits are responsible. The Russians, for that matter, were and are pretty responsible. We are responsible. Hell, we were part of the NPT's creation and implementation. Iran has chosen to back out of it. Yeah, that's real "responsible." (I personally think the NPT is fast morphing into "a mere scrap of paper," but that's another topic for another time.)

The silver lining to the cloud of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs was how much we, collectively, the world, the scientific community as well as the political community, learned about both the short and long term impact of a nuclear weapon's usage. This body of knowledge that did a great deal to inform, and spur based on fact, not estimation, the non-proliferation and arms control efforts that were in tension with the insecurity of MAD that kept the nuclear arms race running for three decades.

DR
 
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You did not give any indication of your position in this post, should I assume that you think a bad guy would use a gun nicely?

:jaw-dropp

......

:jaw-dropp

....flabbergasted.....


I don't know why I'm doing this. I think I need a new hobby. One last try. Quoting oneself is unpleasant...but here again is my position:

D'rok said:
1. Iran has perfectly rational reasons for desiring nuclear weapons. The Bush administration has declared Iran to a member of the Axis of Evil and has graphically demonstrated (Iraq) how this axis will be dealt with. The history of American meddling in Iran (Shah) reinforces this lesson.

OTOH, acquiring nuclear capability brought the USA back to the bargaining table with that other Axis of Evil nation, North Korea. This, and the American response to post-nuclear India and Pakistan demonstrates that nuclear weapons are a ticket to concessions and constitute the coin of power and respectability in the "great game" of international politics. The lesson here is that nukes are the means to avoid Iraq's fate.

Furthermore, America (and its allies) has invaded and destroyed two nations that border Iran and threatens it with vast shows of military force in the region. In addition, Iran is surrounded and implicitly and explicitly threatened by nuclear arsenals in NATO countries and Israel.

In short, given what appear to be a vast array of existential threats amassed against it, Iran has nothing to lose and everything to gain by acquiring nuclear weapons.

2.Intentions aside, under the letter of international law (NNPT) Iran possess the right to enrich uranium. As a signatory to the NNPT, Iran has clearly protected rights to do exactly what it has been doing - namely constructing a domestic enrichment regime. There is only speculation that Iran is violating the treaty. There is no speculation required regarding the many US violations - including giving aid to India's programs, rejecting the treaty's second pillar (disarmament), nuclear sharing arrangements with NATO countries, and ongoing use (DU weapons) and development of new (tactical/bunker-buster) weapons. This level of hypocrisy is self-defeating - i.e., America does not occupy the moral high ground and Iran is unlikely to accept criticisms in this regard. The fact that the UN will not act to protect Iran's treaty rights further encourages Iran's belligerent behaviour.

The twisted war-bot logic around these political realities seems to go something like this:

We know that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons because we have created a geo-political environment in which they would be fools not to. And on top of that, they are religion-crazed fanatics who hate our freedoms and will stop at nothing to destroy us and/or Israel. Therefore, all activity that appears on the surface to be compliant behaviour in truth masks something more sinister. As a result, we must increase the threat level so that they know we are serious about thwarting them thus preventing this gathering menace. Increased pressure results in increased intransigence on the part of Iran and likely hardens their resolve to go nuclear; therefore, actual military confrontation - possibly including the "preventative" use of nuclear weapons - is inevitable and desirable.


Given the current state of world affairs, it is probably inevitable that Iran will go nuclear. IMO, current policies are hastening that end rather than delaying it. Not only that, but a nuclear-armed belligerent and isolated Iran is much more worrisome than a nuclear-armed Iran brought within the fold of the international community of nations.

War is the worst possible course of action.

Also:

D'rok said:
My position is that the option of attacking Iran possesses neither genuine moral legitimacy nor justification through dry-eyed political calculation.


Now...was my assessment of your position correct?
D'rok said:
Are you saying that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon because they will use it offensively instead of defensively and that is the reason why we should attack them now?


If not, please answer this question:
D'rok said:
"I believe that attacking Iran is worthwhile because ______"


If you are not willing to even state a position and defend it, there's really no point continuing. My head needs a break from the brick wall in any case.
 
:jaw-dropp

......

:jaw-dropp

....flabbergasted.....


I don't know why I'm doing this. I think I need a new hobby. One last try. Quoting oneself is unpleasant...but here again is my position:



Also:




Now...was my assessment of your position correct?



If not, please answer this question:



If you are not willing to even state a position and defend it, there's really no point continuing. My head needs a break from the brick wall in any case.

I assume that you are not co-operating with the discussion and you just prove my point that it is a wast of time. Unless proved otherwise I will not respond to your post anymore.
 
I assume that you are not co-operating with the discussion and you just prove my point that it is a wast of time. Unless proved otherwise I will not respond to your post anymore.
Feedback for you, from me, as an observer in this interchange.

D'rok the Lacone has been both cooperative and forthcoming, you have been an obstruction to productive discussion. His posts and your responses showed that engaging with you in discussion is indeed a waste of time.

FWIW

DR
 
Hell, we were part of the NPT's creation and implementation. Iran has chosen to back out of it.

Have they really? AFAIK, they have only been accused of backing out of it. Their visible behaviour has been reasonably close to the letter of the treaty. I'm just as sure as everyone else that their intentions are probably different, but how do we know? I think the argument is stronger that America has backed out of the treaty. There are several fairly clear-cut examples of actual violations as opposed to assumed intentions to violate.

(I personally think the NPT is fast morphing into "a mere scrap of paper," but that's another topic for another time.)

Yup. Classic "dead letter" legal regime.
 
Just to clarify: My posts may be giving the impression that I'm anti-American; I most emphatically am not. America is a huge, complicated and fascinating place that I admire in many ways. I will admit to a visceral hatred of George W. Bush that has the potential to cloud my thinking, but America is far bigger than one man. This is my thought process re: America:

1. If there had to be a victor in the Cold War, would I want that victor to be the USSR? Hell no.
2. If we have to live in a unipolar world, would I want the preponderance of power to rest with, say, China? Hell no.
2b. Or the EU? Well...maybe. But I think a better role for the EU is as a friendly ally in a newly emerging multipolar world.
2c. If we have to have one superpower, we could do far, far worse than America. But America could still do a lot better when wielding that power.
3. The ongoing American experiment with Republican self-government is one of the most vital and historically important factors in human civil/social development.

Back to regularly scheduled dueling.
 
No. The US has a vast advantage over the USSR in resources.

Aside from enough oil to run the Mid-east a good fight, as served up by a pipeline so poorly maintained they leak an Exxon Valdez Disaster's worth all over the ground every year.

They barely have enough cropland to feed themselves.

That's one interpretation. Personally, I prefer the old joke about the official news release detailing the astounding, 60th straight year of bad weather impacting the Soviet crops.

The collapse of Russian Communism may have actually been because the government was not adhering to socialist principals and distributing the limited wealth.

Therein lies the error in your worldview. What's "limited wealth"? In free countries, wealth is essentially unlimited for all practical reasons. There's a reason scenes like that Robin Williams movie where he, as a Soviet defector, stands crying at the huge selection of things in a supermarket. And it ain't just to stroke American egos.

Neither has the collapse of communism made Russia a particularly wonderful place. It is questionable indeed as to whether it was an overall net benefit for the world.

Note that totalitarianism is rearing its ugly head again. They may not be communist, but on the "freedom vs. statism" axis, they never strayed far from that position. Things are going exactly according to that political theory. I wish people would pay attention to it. In most other realms, such wildly successful theories work, but not politics, nor religion. Note that.

I'm sure you can concieve it, but I seriously doubt it would have made any difference. The USSR imploded, it wasn't crushed. I suspect globalism had more to do with it than anything else. McDonald's did more to change Russia than McDonnell Douglas.

Umm, McDonald's is the US plan. Get people jealous of all our stuff, such that they want it, and in go the companies to provide it.

One of the first financial success stories in Russia after the collapse was some kid who started importing CDs from the West and opened a little shop in the back of the official government music store.

Every time you see that happen, that is the US winning. That is freedom itself winning.
 
You are aware the president of Iran has publicly said he would like to eliminate Israel off the map. And you want to give Iran a nuke? That doesn't sound to sane to me.


Didn't several Russian presidents also threaten to obliterate the US?

Cheers,
TGHO
 
I want to make one thing clear. I am all for responsible countries acquiring nukes if they desire. But not Iran, and I wish NK didnt have one either.


We are not going to be able to stop it.

At some point in the next 100 years, the production of nuclear weaponry will become cheap and easily enough for a large number of countries, currently without nukes, to produce them. Until something more devastating (space based mass drivers? Orbital lasers?) comes along, nukes are the be-all and end-all in WMDs. Everyone wants one, because they can be used very effectively as a bargaining chip.

Iran might be stopped for a while, but eventually they will get nukes, one way or another. Coming to an diplomatic or economic agreement before then would be most advantageous, but using military might as a threat will not work (as someone posted earlier, Tricky I think).

Cheers,
TGHO
 
Aside from enough oil to run the Mid-east a good fight, as served up by a pipeline so poorly maintained they leak an Exxon Valdez Disaster's worth all over the ground every year.
Russian oil, though plentiful, is at a very early stage of development. It faces numerous daunting engineering challenges in getting it out and getting it to market, not the least of which is building long pipelines through the tundra.

That's one interpretation. Personally, I prefer the old joke about the official news release detailing the astounding, 60th straight year of bad weather impacting the Soviet crops.
The USSR has far less arable land than the US, a much more severe climate, and less modern machinery. But if you prefer jokes, okay.

Therein lies the error in your worldview. What's "limited wealth"? In free countries, wealth is essentially unlimited for all practical reasons.
I strongly contest that statement. Americans have benefitted much from our cropland, our rich mineral resources, our vast forests, our habitable spaces, our low population density, our climate... so very many things. Iceland is free, but they don't have many of those things. Accordingly, you rarely hear of "Icelandic Billionaires". They call the US "The Land of Opportunity" for a reason, you know.

There's a reason scenes like that Robin Williams movie where he, as a Soviet defector, stands crying at the huge selection of things in a supermarket. And it ain't just to stroke American egos.
Yes, the movie was "Moscow on the Hudson", and it was quite good. But the movie didn't really explore the reasons why Russia has shortages, and I think you are oversimplifying the reasons.

Note that totalitarianism is rearing its ugly head again. They may not be communist, but on the "freedom vs. statism" axis, they never strayed far from that position. Things are going exactly according to that political theory. I wish people would pay attention to it. In most other realms, such wildly successful theories work, but not politics, nor religion. Note that.
I am noting it. I'm noting that Democracy had a chance to succeed in Russia and strong popular support, yet it hasn't caught on there like we hoped it would. Perhaps the reasons are more complex than just the system of government.

Umm, McDonald's is the US plan. Get people jealous of all our stuff, such that they want it, and in go the companies to provide it.
I think the international media, which lavishly displays western opulance, had a lot to do with the overthrow of the USSR. But you can't sell Big Macs to people who have no money. I think that reality is settling in with the Russian people.

One of the first financial success stories in Russia after the collapse was some kid who started importing CDs from the West and opened a little shop in the back of the official government music store.
Yes, I'm sure that there are isolated success stories. But if Best Buy moved in, the kid would be out of business. He would no longer have his niche. Feel-good stories are heartwarming, but where is that kid today?

Every time you see that happen, that is the US winning. That is freedom itself winning.
No doubt the US is doing much better than Russia. You ascribe it to freedom alone. I think there may be many reasons, one big one of which is abundance. Communism works better in places where it is imperative for people to share or else they will perish. Capitalism works better where there are big prizes to be won. The Mayflower Compact is essentially a communist document. At that time, they needed to share to survive.
 
Didn't several Russian presidents also threaten to obliterate the US?
No. Khruschev came closest when he said he would preside at our funeral, but he meant that capitalism was a dying system and communism its successor, not that the Soviets would be bombing anyone. (At any rate, when he said that I don't think the Societ Union had ICBMs that could reach the US.)

I don't know of any Russian Premier who threatened to obliterate America throughout the Cold War, except in the event that America attacked it with nukes.

One of the reasons President Eisenhower decided to go with Kennan's policy of containment (and thus set America's agenda in the Cold War for the next 50 years), in fact, was that the Soviet government's statements, despite their belligerent tone, were consistent with a realpolitik analysis.
 
One of the reasons President Eisenhower decided to go with Kennan's policy of containment (and thus set America's agenda in the Cold War for the next 50 years), in fact, was that the Soviet government's statements, despite their belligerent tone, were consistent with a realpolitik analysis.

Personally, I think the exact same thing is true of Iran. Iran is much more of a rational actor internationally then it is given credit for. This is a minority view, I know, but much of Ahmadinejad's most inflammatory rhetoric is aimed at a domestic audience - namely his conservative base. He is, after all, a populist. I think it is more constructive to look at what Iran actually does as opposed to what Iran says when grandstanding - especially given the problems of meanings getting lost in translation.
 
Personally, I think the exact same thing is true of Iran. Iran is much more of a rational actor internationally then it is given credit for. This is a minority view, I know, but much of Ahmadinejad's most inflammatory rhetoric is aimed at a domestic audience - namely his conservative base. He is, after all, a populist. I think it is more constructive to look at what Iran actually does as opposed to what Iran says when grandstanding - especially given the problems of meanings getting lost in translation.
You and I, the oppressed minority in this matter.

*sings*

"We shall overcome . . . "

DR
 
One of the reasons President Eisenhower decided to go with Kennan's policy of containment (and thus set America's agenda in the Cold War for the next 50 years), in fact, was that the Soviet government's statements, despite their belligerent tone, were consistent with a realpolitik analysis.


And this wouldn't work with Iran?

Cheers,
TGHO
 
First of all, the use of the two nukes on Japan was to end a devastating war that would have taken tens of thousands more American's to end without nuking them.
Not to mention the perhaps hundreds of thousands of Japanese who would have been killed if the war had dragged on.
 

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