Belz...
Fiend God
Too many barriers along the way: unpopularity, possible impeachment, better democratic candidate. I also don't know if the GOP can field other candidates to challenge him, were he to run again.
Will Trump be re-elected?
- Thread starter MrFliop
- Start date
Too many barriers along the way: unpopularity, possible impeachment, better democratic candidate. I also don't know if the GOP can field other candidates to challenge him, were he to run again.
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
He had the support of GOP voters (as well as his own supporters) in the last election, and he still lost the popular vote and only won the election due to winning a few swing states by the tiniest of margins.
"Near 100%" won't cut it next time around... he can't afford to lose any supporters (which won't happen, since most of Trump's promises were shown to be bunk, and some of the things he's actually enacted were unpopular), and/or he needs to grow his voter base (unlikely, since he has shown a complete unwillingness to reach outside his current klan of supporters.)
Belz...
Fiend God
He's already lost supporters.
Regnad Kcin
Penultimate Amazing
Trump will crank the fine-tuned lie machine up to 11, claiming all sorts of successes, real or imagined.
He will go on every possible attack against: Democratic candidates; their eventual running mate; the Democratic members of congress; the news media; any and all people, public and private, he can use as scapegoats and obstructionists; and Obama.
He will continue to speak in person and on record in near incomprehensible statements, heavily ladled with empty promises, rhetoric, and platitudes.
He will tweet 'til his fingers bleed.
He will take attention away from whatever cockup of the day happens to be by creating a new controversy - all of it too voluminous to keep track of.
He will have members of his administration, all of whom he didn't have in 2016, acting as campaign field generals, attacking on all fronts.
He will thoroughly utilize Air Force 1, along with the other trappings and pageantry of his office, throughout the campaign, reinforcing an air of legitimacy and prestige.
He will not have any significant primary opposition, enabling him to conserve his resources and concentrate his energy.
After three years of his relentless incompetence and idiocy while in office as well as another almost two from the earlier campaign, the general public will be entirely too punch drunk to put up much of a fight.
2020 is probably Trump's to lose.
He will go on every possible attack against: Democratic candidates; their eventual running mate; the Democratic members of congress; the news media; any and all people, public and private, he can use as scapegoats and obstructionists; and Obama.
He will continue to speak in person and on record in near incomprehensible statements, heavily ladled with empty promises, rhetoric, and platitudes.
He will tweet 'til his fingers bleed.
He will take attention away from whatever cockup of the day happens to be by creating a new controversy - all of it too voluminous to keep track of.
He will have members of his administration, all of whom he didn't have in 2016, acting as campaign field generals, attacking on all fronts.
He will thoroughly utilize Air Force 1, along with the other trappings and pageantry of his office, throughout the campaign, reinforcing an air of legitimacy and prestige.
He will not have any significant primary opposition, enabling him to conserve his resources and concentrate his energy.
After three years of his relentless incompetence and idiocy while in office as well as another almost two from the earlier campaign, the general public will be entirely too punch drunk to put up much of a fight.
2020 is probably Trump's to lose.
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skyeagle409
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skyeagle409
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Trump has been driving toward impeachment since taking office.
skyeagle409
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Could this be the reason why Trump didn't want to throw out the first pitch?
Protesters Hang Giant ‘Impeach Trump’ Banner At Washington Nationals Game
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...rce=huffingtonpost.com&utm_term=.2db74a5a340f
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Perhaps he is embarrassed about the size of his hands?
Actually we do know that is a very sensitive thing for him he's been sending photos of his hands to someone decades after they made a comment about Trump being short fingered: http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2015/10/graydon-carter-donald-trump
Tony Stark
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Trump would have been booed very hard if he went to that game. Probably harder than Roger Goodell got booed at the Superbowl.
thaiboxerken
Penultimate Amazing
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I think it's even simpler than that. A person who hasn't pitched looks rather silly throwing the first pitch at a game. Most people that participate in the tradition know this and are fine with a little humiliation of this sort, since it doesn't really matter much. Trump, however, never wants to look silly. He'd probably never sit on a dunk platform at a fair either.
Tony Stark
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Then why does he walk around with orange skin and that terrible hair? lol
WilliamSeger
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Donald Trump Specials at LadBrokes:
Right after the election, "impeachment or resignation" was 3/1.
Looks like a golden opportunity for Trump supporters who think he'll run in 2020:
(Actually, if you wait a few weeks, you will probably get long odds instead of Evens.
)
Right after the election, "impeachment or resignation" was 3/1.
Looks like a golden opportunity for Trump supporters who think he'll run in 2020:
(Actually, if you wait a few weeks, you will probably get long odds instead of Evens.
)jt512
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thaiboxerken
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Because the emperor has no clothes. He is surrounded by people who compliment him on his appearance and smarts.
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
Trump lied, made empty promises and tweeted constantly during the 2016 election. While he won the election he lost the popular vote.
Do you really think the lying and tweeting will be more successful next time?
Obama will have been out of office for 4 years by then. While he may try to blame him for his problems, I figure at least a few Trump voters may start thinking that after 4 years Trump is responsible for what happens, rather than the guy that's been out of power for years.
Trump seems adverse to the trappings of the office.... visiting the resort in Florida at every possibility, etc. Not sure how well people will associate Trump with Presidential prestige by 2020.
This could be a double-edge sword. While the lack of significant primary competition will help him save resources, it will also mean less media attention in that time period, and Trump thrives on attention.
On the other hand, many of his supporters may also be too worn down and just not go to vote (especially if Trump's actions affect them negatively... thinking of the trump supporters who oppose his signing of the internet privacy bill, or the voters who benefit from Obamacare but risk losing coverage under Trump.)
I'm not saying that Trump would get totally slaughtered in 2020 if he were to run. (Between political polarization, the number of bigots in the U.S. and the Republican efforts at voter suppression he'd still win quite a few states.) I'm just saying that his victory in 2016 was razor-thin, and even a small voter shift away from him and/or to the democrats would probably have him losing.
Regnad Kcin
Penultimate Amazing
I understand your considering, and at least somewhat disagreeing with, the points I made. However, my argument is meant to be taken in its entirety; each of the angles are strengthened by their support of the whole.
Not a chain. Chainmail.
Not a chain. Chainmail.
Roger Ramjets
Philosopher
Just replace 'Trump' with "a Republican' and you will understand the poll numbers. Trump could be worse than Hitler and it wouldn't matter to them - so long as he's a Republican they will support him.
Heck they were blaming Bill Clinton during the election and he was President last millennium
Sure a few Trump voters may not blame Obama, instead they, like Trump will blame Democrats for not supporting his cruddy bills, Mexicans for not paying for his ridiculous wall and "leftists" for failing to MAGA
Segnosaur
Penultimate Amazing
Oh, I have no doubt that many/most Trump supporters will find any and all excuses to justify Trump's failures, including blaming Obama and the Democrats. (Trump has already tried shifting the blame when he talked about he didn't get any Democrats supporting his health care plan.)
Heck they were blaming Bill Clinton during the election and he was President last millennium
Sure a few Trump voters may not blame Obama, instead they, like Trump will blame Democrats for not supporting his cruddy bills, Mexicans for not paying for his ridiculous wall and "leftists" for failing to MAGA
But you don't need a widespread revolt against Trump by his supporters to have him lose an election in 2020. You just need him to lose ~1% of his voters to tip the scales against him.
You're quite right but there are a number of things working in Trump's favour. It's quite rare for a president to serve only a single term when it's not the third term of a particular party - the US electorate seems to like giving their presidents a full 8 years. It's entirely possible that he will lose the popular vote by an even wider margin but the things that made some states unexpectedly turn red, (white) working class dissatisfaction, a feeling that *something* has to change and so on will still be the same. The GOP will also be working super-hard to get those voter rolls purged and Voter ID implemented to keep hold of those gains.