Will there be a war with Iran?

[BenBurch]

Umm, do you really want to do that?

After all, an American working in Iran against the government of Iran could get in serious trouble (to put it mildly) if he were caught by the Iranian authorities.

I'm not really qualified to do the 007 bit, but I'd be happy to design more viruses to destroy their infrastructure.

 

[BravesFan]

The scenario given by MaGZ was put forth on The World tonight, but minus any attack. Iran engages in harassing Gulf shipping, using "asymmetrical" techniques like mines, small-boat attacks...Insurance rates go up, the price of oil goes up, fragile Western economies suffer...
Etc.
No conventional naval confrontation...The Iranians would loose their navy "within four minutes", according to the analyst.

It's sabre rattling then.... Meh, that's gonna happen here and there (especially now that so many countries in the region have ben rebelling and calling for democratic elections. Iran needs to show it's people who is in charge).

 

[MikeSun5]

It's sabre rattling then.... Meh, that's gonna happen here and there (especially now that so many countries in the region have ben rebelling and calling for democratic elections. Iran needs to show it's people who is in charge).

Agreed. They're just keeping everyone on their toes. They got it from the Kim Jong Il playbook. It's a tribute, really.

I doubt hope Iran isn't dumb enough to provoke war with the US. We have air bases in Turkey that have the capability to seriously cripple that country within just a few hours. ...and you know we're always happy to oblige. And Israel can't frickin WAIT to start dropping bombs on them, either.

We won't go to war with Iran. Not happening.

 

[angrysoba]

Agreed. They're just keeping everyone on their toes. They got it from the Kim Jong Il playbook. It's a tribute, really.

I doubt hope Iran isn't dumb enough to provoke war with the US. We have air bases in Turkey that have the capability to seriously cripple that country within just a few hours. ...and you know we're always happy to oblige. And Israel can't frickin WAIT to start dropping bombs on them, either.

We won't go to war with Iran. Not happening.

Israel's government certainly talks about bombing Iran. Do all Israelis want to start bombing Iran?

Maybe Netanyahu. Maybe Ehud Barak. There are almost certainly even more hawkish people in the government and the Likud Party but...

A nuclear-armed Iran wouldn't necessarily constitute a threat to Israel's continued existence, Mossad chief Tamir Pardo reportedly hinted earlier this week

Pardo's remarks follow lively a public debate in recent months over a possible Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. One of the figures at the center of this public debate has been Pardo's predecessor as Mossad chief, Meir Dagan. Dagan has argued that Israel should only resort to military force "when the knife is at its throat and begins to cut into the flesh." He has also criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, accusing them of pushing for an Israeli attack on Iran, and warned that such an assault would have disastrous consequences.

Link

 

[bigjelmapro]

...And Israel can't frickin WAIT to start dropping bombs on them, either.

Erm, I can do without war in Iran, and I can safely say so for the majority of Israelis who don't want war with Iran.

 

[MikeSun5]

Erm, I can do without war in Iran, and I can safely say so for the majority of Israelis who don't want war with Iran.

I should have been more specific... the majority of people in most countries would prefer to do without war. I was really just talking about the US -- if Iran ever did manage to get into a war with America, I'm sure there would be a few Israeli jets "helping out."

And I guess we'll see if the powers that be in Israel ever think Iran has reached a point "when the knife is at its throat and begins to cut into the flesh." Whatever that means.

 

[IDB87]

Erm, I can do without war in Iran, and I can safely say so for the majority of Israelis who don't want war with Iran.

It will also squander the youth in Iran, who are the future of the country and who absolutely hate the regime.

Please no war!

 

[bigjelmapro]

I should have been more specific... the majority of people in most countries would prefer to do without war. I was really just talking about the US -- if Iran ever did manage to get into a war with America, I'm sure there would be a few Israeli jets "helping out."

So we've gone from Israelis frothing at the mouth to bomb Iran into the stone age, to the IAF 'helping out'. Has a bit less to do with being specific, and more to do with completely revising what you said.

And I guess we'll see if the powers that be in Israel ever think Iran has reached a point "when the knife is at its throat and begins to cut into the flesh." Whatever that means.

I think this would imply imminent threat to Israel and its citizens. The knife bit is pretty self-explanatory, but how it would apply to this imminent threat is debateable.

 

[MikeSun5]

So we've gone from Israelis frothing at the mouth to bomb Iran into the stone age, to the IAF 'helping out'. Has a bit less to do with being specific, and more to do with completely revising what you said.

Riiiight... Care to quote my post where I said "Israelis were frothing at the mouth to bomb Iran into the stone age?" Notice that your post has a bit less to do with being accurate, and more to do with you wanting to argue a point that I wasn't making.

I didn't think what I typed was so easily misinterpreted. Sometimes I'll refer to a nations' leading government by using the name of the country itself. Didn't know that was unacceptable. I will no longer use the word "Israel" to refer to Israel's military or government. "Israel" obviously only refers to the actual civilian people of Israel, the vast majority of whom don't want war. My bad.

Barak has repeatedly said that he would most definitely attack Iran if there are "no other alternatives." When will that be? Who decides when there are no other alternatives? Israel? Israel's government? Who decides when the "knife is at the throat cutting into the flesh?" Israel? Israel's government?

I think this would imply imminent threat to Israel and its citizens.

You don't say!

The knife bit is pretty self-explanatory, but how it would apply to this imminent threat is debateable.

Self-explanatory, eh? Must be an Israeli thing. I find that entire statement to be intentionally ambiguous. What does it MEAN? Does it mean Iranian ground troops within Israeli borders? Bombs dropping in Jerusalem? Or does it mean Iranian nuclear plants being 2 months away from being online? Who gets to decide what the hell Iran's "knife" is? Where is Israel's "throat?" What is Israel's "flesh," and how do you know when the "knife" is cutting into it?

It's like when Bush said that the US would make no distinction between countries that harbor terrorists and the terrorists themselves. An all-encompassing statement that can be used to justify an attack pretty much anywhere at any time.

 

[bigjelmapro]

Riiiight... Care to quote my post where I said "Israelis were frothing at the mouth to bomb Iran into the stone age?" Notice that your post has a bit less to do with being accurate, and more to do with you wanting to argue a point that I wasn't making.

The can't wait bit. Gave the indication that Israel wants to act immediately against Iran by bombing them.

The previous post was simply an about face/backpeddling action and I called you on it.

I didn't think what I typed was so easily misinterpreted. Sometimes I'll refer to a nations' leading government by using the name of the country itself. Didn't know that was unacceptable. I will no longer use the word "Israel" to refer to Israel's military or government. "Israel" obviously only refers to the actual civilian people of Israel, the vast majority of whom don't want war. My bad.

Wasn't misinterpreted at all. There are people for action against Iran's nuclear program within the IDF/IAF and Israeli government and those against it. Currently, both the military and government are waiting for the next sanctions to be implemented and to see if that will have any effect. On top of the already practice of covert action and espionage against said program.

The problem with your statement was that there was a unanimous position within Israel, government, military, and civilian (much of which are either active or reservist in the military itself), to bomb Iran. This is false.

Barak has repeatedly said that he would most definitely attack Iran if there are "no other alternatives." When will that be? Who decides when there are no other alternatives? Israel? Israel's government? Who decides when the "knife is at the throat cutting into the flesh?" Israel? Israel's government?

Chill out with the paranoid questions.

Self-explanatory, eh? Must be an Israeli thing. I find that entire statement to be intentionally ambiguous. What does it MEAN? Does it mean Iranian ground troops within Israeli borders? Bombs dropping in Jerusalem? Or does it mean Iranian nuclear plants being 2 months away from being online? Who gets to decide what the hell Iran's "knife" is? Where is Israel's "throat?" What is Israel's "flesh," and how do you know when the "knife" is cutting into it?

What? The concept of actually being cut by the knife or the application of the saying to current events? The latter I've already stated is debateable.

As for Iranian soldiers in Israel proper or bombs dropping on J'lem? Would already say that this beyond 'beginning'.

Are you actually interested in debate or is this tactic of shock-and-awe/barrage of questions approach your normal approach?

It's like when Bush said that the US would make no distinction between countries that harbor terrorists and the terrorists themselves. An all-encompassing statement that can be used to justify an attack pretty much anywhere at any time.

Strawman and guilt by association...interesting.

 

[MikeSun5]

The US will not go to war with Iran.

 

[Bill Thompson]

Probably of Romney because president.
Maybe if Obama remains president.
Probably not of Ron Paul becomes president.

 

[bit_pattern]

Probably of Romney because president.
Maybe if Obama remains president.
Probably not of Ron Paul becomes president.

That's actually a pretty good assessment. Rational, almost

 

[Roofgardener]

If America DID go to war with Iran, what - exactly - could it do ?

None of the surrounding nations would allow their airbases to be used for attacks. Any air bombing would have to come from Naval Aviation (aircraft carriers), or long-range attacks launching directly from the continental USA.

This latter is theoretically possible, using B1 and B2 bombers. (or even B52's), with mid-air refueling. However, after the debacle in Iraq, it is unlikely that European nations would permit overflights. The Islamic nations would CERTAINLY not permit overflights. And anyway, there are only around 70 B1's and B2's in operation, and a couple of dozen B52's. That number would rapidly decline as mechanical wear-and-tear on 12,000 mile round journeys builds up. And that is BEFORE we consider bad weather, or Iranian SAM missiles. It would hardly constitute 'saturation bombing'.

As for "boots on the ground"... non of the neighbouring nations (Afghanistan, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Pakistan) would permit ground operations (with all of the associated support and logistics infrastructure) from their territory. The USA would have to resort to a direct maritime assault through the Gulf of Oman, or the Persian Gulf.

They would need hundreds of thousands of troops. Could these REALLY be landed on the beaches - and organised - before a massive Iranian surface-surface missile attack decimates them ? That.. plus a swarm of suicidal speedboats packed with explosives damages the landing craft ? (or even an aircraft carrier). Bear in mind that they don't need to SINK the USA ships - merely damage them so that they can't function.

I really don't think the USA is in any POSITION to attack Iran to any significant degree.

Iran is three times the size of Iraq, and has LOTS of surface-to-surface missiles.

 

[Darth Rotor]

All of you who were worried about this US-Iran war, in re the OP in 2011.

Wow, how wrong you were.

@Roofgardner: I don't see what is to be gained by invading Iran. I am pretty sure that view is shared by both civilian and military planners in Washington.