Will The GOP Win Back the Senate in 2010?

[Kodiak]

Whewn the ecconomy gets so screwed up as it is now because of misplaced spending and the refusal of the prosperous to put back into the system, it has to be done. Stop whining about government stepping in to save capitalism from itself again.

Next time the victims of the crash might just decide capitalism is not worth ther emotional roller coaster any more and just kill and eat the entrepreneurial class and start all over with something else.

The U.S. government is not saving capitalism, it's perverting and strangling it.

Your "victims of the crash" scenario just sounds like a regurgitation of the classic socialist dream to me...

 

[leftysergeant]

The U.S. government is not saving capitalism, it's perverting and strangling it.

Bull flops. Government builds infrastructure and maintains order so that capitalism may occur.

And, quite frankly, some forms of capitalism need to be strangled for the good of civilization. Whoever invented the derivatives market should be exiled to an island far removed from the rest of mankind to live on what they can forage after the harm they have done to the working people of this country.

Your "victims of the crash" scenario just sounds like a regurgitation of the classic socialist dream to me...

Well, I suppose to a Libertarian or an Ayn Rand Objectivist, it does.

To the rest of humanity, it sounds like history. Learn some.

 

[Kodiak]

Bull flops. Government builds infrastructure and maintains order so that capitalism may occur.

Selective attributions. You forgot or ignored the Obama bank bail outs and the government ownership of GM and Chrysler.

 

[Kodiak]

Well, I suppose to a Libertarian or an Ayn Rand Objectivist, it does.

To the rest of humanity, it sounds like history. Learn some.

Another Ad Hominem?

How sad...

 

[Brainster]

Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post's The Fix blog catches on to the possibility that the Republicans could take over the upper chamber:

With the developments in Illinois and Indiana over the past 24 hours, the Cook Political Report now carries 10 Democratic-held seats in their most competitive categories -- meaning, theoretically, that if Republicans ran the table (and lost none of their own toss up seats in Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio) they could get to 51 seats and the Senate majority.

 

[lomiller]

The only real chance the Republicans have is a double dip recession. They have been throwing around a lot of fear and confusion regarding the economy, but a normal recovery will really come back to bite them.

First of all the election will be held on a year long strong of good economic news. Even if unemployment remains high the economy will be clearly heading in the right direction, always a better indicator for the party in power then the current state of the economy.

Second the dire predictions will be fresh in peoples mind. Failed predictions and opposition to polices that worked don’t garner much confidence.

The final problem Republicans face in a national election is that the policies they support are harebrained and can’t stand up to any critical analysis. You can’t cut spending by 20 billion, cut taxes by 200 billion and move towards a balanced budget, and most people realize it.

 

[dudalb]

The other problem the GOP may have is if the likes of Rand Paul in Kentucky get the nominations, they are going to lose the political center. It might be a case of "I don't like the Dem candidate that much, but compared to that nutjob".
If the Tea Party becomes perceived as the face of the GOP, they will have minimum gains at best come november.
This is not to defend the Dems. They talked big in 2008, but have accomplished little, and they have only the incompetence of their congressional leadership to blame.
Still, they might look better then the GOP come November.

 

[leftysergeant]

The GOP will also look like a pack of clowns if they insist on renewing the tax cuts for professional investors and deny the targetted tax breaks that will encourage small businesses.I think people have figured out that throwing money at the top of the food chain and taking it from the bottom is kind of bass ackwards, but all they will get from the GOP.

 

[willhaven]

I think it's highly unlikely they'll win either back. They'll probably make gains in both houses of congress though.

 

[dudalb]

The GOP will also look like a pack of clowns if they insist on renewing the tax cuts for professional investors and deny the targetted tax breaks that will encourage small businesses.I think people have figured out that throwing money at the top of the food chain and taking it from the bottom is kind of bass ackwards, but all they will get from the GOP.

Won't get into the rights or wrongs of tax cuts for investments,but you seem to have a real hatred for people who invest in the stock markets. The old "parastical Unearned Income" crapola again?

 

[Brainster]

Current odds at InTrade show the GOP chance of taking back the Senate moving up sharply in the wake of Bayh's resignation. Last trade shows the GOP at 35 cents, with the Democrats at 65 cents.

 

[MattusMaximus]

Over at IEM, here are the numbers:

Dems Gain 2.5%
Dems Hold 76.1%
Dems Lose 22.0%

Still an uphill battle for the GOP. They've got a better shot at the House, though that is also an uphill battle.

 

[novice skeptic]

53-45-2 Dems after the election if nothing changes. But way too early to tell given what may or what may happen. I will guarantee that the GOP will pick up at least 2 seats.

 

[GreyICE]

No.

59-41
1/3 seats available
Need to keep all 41, win ten more outright, to make it 51-49. Need to unseat 10/33 incumbents in one fell swoop.
Absent a collosal screw up in the Democratic Party, or a scandal of major magnitude, I don't see it, particularly as the Dems were given a wake up call in MA regarding complacency.

Only way to do this? Get all the people who don't normally vote, to vote and vote for the GOP candidate. Not holding my breath, as a decent percentage of non voters are in the 18-25 demographic.

The "Throw the bums out, but not our bums" message is one of the trickiest to manage in politics, and can backfire.

DR

The key to the 'kick the bums out but not our bums' message is to appear essentially powerless, so that the 'kick the bums out' can convincingly bypass the 'good, hardworking people stifled by bums.'

The GOP has effectively sabotaged this by blowing anything they had resembling political capital on stalling health care, which may turn out to be the wrong fight for them. If they'd let Obama pass a watered down system, he'd have looked ineffective, but with it looking like it'll get passed over their heads, they're just going to look obstructionist.

 

[MattusMaximus]

53-45-2 Dems after the election if nothing changes. But way too early to tell given what may or what may happen. I will guarantee that the GOP will pick up at least 2 seats.

I think this is a highly realistic scenario, especially given that the "throw the bums out" mentality cuts both ways, regardless of party.

 

[Brainster]

InTrade has contracts on how many seats the GOP will hold after the election; right now the median contract is 48+, which is currently priced at 52 cents.

 

[Undesired Walrus]

Slightly OT, but I'm surprised at how steady Obama's approval rating has been, even through arguably the worst month in his Presidency. It's currently on 52% and has been drifting around there for some time. He even leads a hypothetical Republican candidate in 2012 by a few points.

 

[Brainster]

Slightly OT, but I'm surprised at how steady Obama's approval rating has been, even through arguably the worst month in his Presidency. It's currently on 52% and has been drifting around there for some time. He even leads a hypothetical Republican candidate in 2012 by a few points.

Don't look now...

52 percent of Americans said President Barack Obama doesn't deserve reelection in 2012, according to a new poll.

44 percent of all Americans said they would vote to reelect the president in two and a half years, less than the slight majority who said they would prefer to elect someone else.