Merged Will the coming influenza season produce few deaths? / Annual flu deaths

[marting]

Currently, the forthcoming flu season is about to start and everywhere there are messages to get your flu vaccine to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed with flu on top of Covid-19 cases. Seems reasonable on its face.

But influenza has a significantly lower R0 than Covid-19 and it is subject to most of the same non pharmaceutical intervention reduction as Covid-19 so I don't see it being a significant factor in hospital loads until a Covid-19 vaccine is widely in use which is not going to occur in this flu season.

What am I missing?

 

[lionking]

In Australia we have just gone through the flu season and cases were much, much lower.

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm

But there have been strong restrictions, particularly in my state. I would have hated to see a flu season like last year’s on top of covid. It probably would not have overwhelmed our health system, but it would have caused problems.

I think in countries not locked down, the problem is that flu vaccines do not eliminate the chance of getting the flu because of the rapid evolution of the virus, and you can have a very bad season if the vaccine is not quite right. A bad flu season on top of overwhelmed health systems could be disastrous.

 

[lionking]

On top of that, of course, it is always a good idea to get the flu shot, covid or not.

 

[marting]

In Australia we have just gone through the flu season and cases were much, much lower.

https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm

But there have been strong restrictions, particularly in my state. I would have hated to see a flu season like last year’s on top of covid. It probably would not have overwhelmed our health system, but it would have caused problems.

I think in countries not locked down, the problem is that flu vaccines do not eliminate the chance of getting the flu because of the rapid evolution of the virus, and you can have a very bad season if the vaccine is not quite right. A bad flu season on top of overwhelmed health systems could be disastrous.

Interesting charts in that link. Thanks. Looks like at the start of the Flu season in March it was taking of like a rocket but got shut down by the end of April and was way below that of prior years. I don't like how rapidly it first grew compared to prior years. Suggests the vaccines in use weren't as effective as usual but they didn't have enough data to determine vaccine efficacy so who knows.

Of course even w/o official lockdowns, human behavior (fear) goes a long way to reducing spread of Covid-19 and others.

Always good to get a flu shot though.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

In places were people wear masks - sure.

 

[Lplus]

Currently, the forthcoming flu season is about to start and everywhere there are messages to get your flu vaccine to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed with flu on top of Covid-19 cases. Seems reasonable on its face.

But influenza has a significantly lower R0 than Covid-19 and it is subject to most of the same non pharmaceutical intervention reduction as Covid-19 so I don't see it being a significant factor in hospital loads until a Covid-19 vaccine is widely in use which is not going to occur in this flu season.

What am I missing?

You're not missing anything.

It's just Belt and Braces, especially if - as has been suggested - any sort of innoculation helps to prime the immune system against all viruses.

 

[lionking]

You're not missing anything.

It's just Belt and Braces, especially if - as has been suggested - any sort of innoculation helps to prime the immune system against all viruses.

Where has that been suggested? I’ve never seen anything that says covid vaccine can prevent the flu and that the flu vaccine can prevent covid.

If only it were that simple.....

 

[Lplus]

Where has that been suggested? I’ve never seen anything that says covid vaccine can prevent the flu and that the flu vaccine can prevent covid.

If only it were that simple.....

Nor have I, and I didn't say that. I said that it was suggested that vaccinations could strengthen the immune system generally.

But since I can't find the reference anyway - I withdraw the suggestion.

 

[Jodie]

If we continue to wear masks and social distance the flu season will be much less severe, just depends on how much cooperation you get from the public, what the mandates are from state to state so we will see.

I get a flu vaccine every year regardless because if you have ever had true flu, not this GI upset or runny nose that some people call the flu, you are incapacitated for 5 days. I literally could only crawl to the bathroom the last time I had it 12 years ago.

 

[marting]

If we continue to wear masks and social distance the flu season will be much less severe, just depends on how much cooperation you get from the public, what the mandates are from state to state so we will see.

I get a flu vaccine every year regardless because if you have ever had true flu, not this GI upset or runny nose that some people call the flu, you are incapacitated for 5 days. I literally could only crawl to the bathroom the last time I had it 12 years ago.

It's been probably 20 years since I last had the flu and I haven't had a cold in at least 30 years. Weird thing is that I used to get colds and sometimes strep throat maybe 5 times each year until I went off to college. Pretty much nothing since and I've been retired over a decade. Diseases are weird.

 

[lionking]

I get a flu vaccine every year regardless because if you have ever had true flu, not this GI upset or runny nose that some people call the flu, you are incapacitated for 5 days. I literally could only crawl to the bathroom the last time I had it 12 years ago.

This is 100% correct. I got influenza in my 40s and went to hospital emergency. They took an x-ray and admitted me. I spent about a week there getting heavy duty antibiotic injections and painkillers, and hooked up to an oxygen tank.

Yes, most people can be treated at home, but when you get it bad, it is literally deadly. And I wasn’t otherwise compromised. It was my first and only time in hospital and I was running marathons in those days.

 

[The Atheist]

Nor have I, and I didn't say that. I said that it was suggested that vaccinations could strengthen the immune system generally.

But since I can't find the reference anyway - I withdraw the suggestion.

Don't - it's not a suggestion, it's a fact.

There are several posts in the Covid thread that highlight the association.

Here's an excellent summary of the effect: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200915-the-mystery-of-why-some-vaccines-are-doubly-beneficial

Currently, the forthcoming flu season is about to start and everywhere there are messages to get your flu vaccine to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed with flu on top of Covid-19 cases. Seems reasonable on its face.

NZ's 'flu numbers were down by over 90% this winter, but we did have the luxury of shutting it out, along with Covid.

As of 11 September 2020, there have been 212 specimens collected from patients presenting to general practices with ILI symptoms, 0 (0%) of which were influenza positive. Of the tested swabs: 20 were enterovirus positive; 74 were rhinovirus positive (one swab had both enterovirus and rhinovirus detected); 1 was human metapneumovirus positive; and 1 was adenovirus positive. For the same period last year, 1577 specimens were tested of which 905 (57.4%) were influenza positive.

https://www.esr.cri.nz/our-services/consultancy/flu-surveillance-and-research

 

[Caroline13]

We 'll never know the seasonal flu numbers because everything is lumped into this Covid mess. I've heard from a good source I trust that there are somewhere between 60K upward of deaths from seasonal flu but we won't hear a peep now since covid controls. And furthermore, I don't recall hearing about the deaths from seasonal flu over the years..

I do not take vaccinations, first grade I did, and tetnus I did and a couple flu jabs in my early 40's and that's been it.

 

[Planigale]

It might be worse.
1) We have a poor idea of what serotypes will be circulating so choosing a vaccine may be difficult
2) With low virus level this year immunity may be relatively low.

(If people continue to socially distance and wear masks then flu levels may be low, but I think there will be a bounce back when we stop doing so.)

 

[zooterkin]

We 'll never know the seasonal flu numbers because everything is lumped into this Covid mess. I've heard from a good source I trust that there are somewhere between 60K upward of deaths from seasonal flu but we won't hear a peep now since covid controls. And furthermore, I don't recall hearing about the deaths from seasonal flu over the years..

Are you sure? If so, someone's falling down on the job. Death registrations should have the cause recorded, and the statistics should be available in due course. That's certainly the case in the UK.

Here's the latest report for England.

 

[marting]

We 'll never know the seasonal flu numbers because everything is lumped into this Covid mess. I've heard from a good source I trust that there are somewhere between 60K upward of deaths from seasonal flu but we won't hear a peep now since covid controls. And furthermore, I don't recall hearing about the deaths from seasonal flu over the years..

I do not take vaccinations, first grade I did, and tetnus I did and a couple flu jabs in my early 40's and that's been it.

No, it's not all lumped into Covid-19.

The CDC documents regular surveillance (PCR) tests of influenza. It's well below the usual incidence of flu at about .3% of tests. Normally at this point it would be 2 to 3% or more. Influenza is at record lows in the USA and pretty much everywhere else.

This is logical since the NPIs introduced for Covid-19 have suppressed flu which has a much lower R0 than Covid-19.

Bluntly, people are dying from Covid-19, not flu.

However, next year when Covid-19 is under some control and things are more relaxed, I expect influenza to return to normal or even above normal levels.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

 

[Puppycow]

We 'll never know the seasonal flu numbers because everything is lumped into this Covid mess. I've heard from a good source I trust that there are somewhere between 60K upward of deaths from seasonal flu but we won't hear a peep now since covid controls. And furthermore, I don't recall hearing about the deaths from seasonal flu over the years..

I do not take vaccinations, first grade I did, and tetnus I did and a couple flu jabs in my early 40's and that's been it.

What source is that, I wonder?

Are you not planning to get vaccinated for Covid?

 

[fishbob]

It might be worse.
1) We have a poor idea of what serotypes will be circulating so choosing a vaccine may be difficult
2) With low virus level this year immunity may be relatively low.

(If people continue to socially distance and wear masks then flu levels may be low, but I think there will be a bounce back when we stop doing so.)

Exactly. Flu and Covid are transmitted similarly.
Covid precautions are also flu precautions.

 

[Rolfe]

I never understood why they were dementing on about get your flu vaccine because the last thing we need is a load of flu cases on top of a covid surge. It was blindlingly obvious that the anti-covid precautions were going to stop flu dead in its tracks. That duly happened and all the so-called experts were scratching their heads saying, well, we didn't expect that. (Even though it had already happened in New Zealand.) Which says something about the calibre of experts the government and the media listen to.

I hasten to add that I got the flu vaccine anyway, because basically why not?

 

[marting]

I never understood why they were dementing on about get your flu vaccine because the last thing we need is a load of flu cases on top of a covid surge. It was blindlingly obvious that the anti-covid precautions were going to stop flu dead in its tracks. That duly happened and all the so-called experts were scratching their heads saying, well, we didn't expect that. (Even though it had already happened in New Zealand.) Which says something about the calibre of experts the government and the media listen to.

I hasten to add that I got the flu vaccine anyway, because basically why not?

Given that there is already a supply chain and distribution mechanism for flu vaccines, the program is going full steam ahead. Recommendations are for virtually everyone to get a flu vaccine. Yet, they can't seem to get their act together to get C19 shots out. Had a virtual doc appointment last month and he wanted to sign me up for a flu vaccine. Told him I'm skipping it this year given the really low incidence of flu and NPIs in effect. I figure I'm at about the same risk, which is very low, of going out to get a flu vaccine and picking up C19 as getting the flu this season. And I'd rather use the time for something more interesting. The doc chuckled, had said he hadn't seen any flu since last spring.