We are in interesting times but for David Cameron's party with his increased majority, no coalition partner to keep them in check and for their party no change in Scotland.(They had 1 seat before the election in Scotland and have 1 seat after the election). I am wondering how he will balance his back benchers demands over the demands of the SNP and Devo Max. The SNP promised during this election not to vote with the Tories and to work to stop austerity measure, so I am assuming that there are no deals to be made between them. The Tories are already talking about continuing with their economic measures. What advantage will it give the Tories to concede any more than the Smith Commission measures? I dont think there will be anything more than the commission offers and in fact there may be less.
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Will Scotland get any more than what is currently on the table
- Thread starter MCel58
- Start date
Francesca R
Girl
Also what advantage would it give the SNP to do anything other than claim that Tory-led England is always totally shafting Scotland? That would seem to require permanent dis-satisfaction with what ever happens short of independence.
Or just maybe these two parties will mutually recognise the strength of each other's mandates and will work together.
Their die-hard tribal supporters won't like that. The country probably would though.
Or just maybe these two parties will mutually recognise the strength of each other's mandates and will work together.
Their die-hard tribal supporters won't like that. The country probably would though.
Rum
Critical Thinker
I see the nastier side of nationalistic tribalism kicking in. Mostly in Scotland as they grumble non stop about Westminster not keeping its promises (whether they do or not) and to a lesser degree from English people who will increasingly resent their demands - and their right to vote in Parliament on English issues.
I have little doubt it will all lead to independence at some point. Sooner rather than later I suspect.
I have little doubt it will all lead to independence at some point. Sooner rather than later I suspect.
No advantage to the Tories in giving more. But if they give less they will run serious dangers.
The SNP now has an unchallengeable mandate in Scotland, and have stated that they will abide by the Indyref result. But that is on the obvious condition that the unionists abide by the promises that contributed to achieving that result. Not only the SNP will be irked if they don't. The No voters will feel betrayed, and the demand for independence will be stoked again. This time, if the Vow is broken, there will be few arguments on the No side, except Boris Johnson's Ajockalypse.
Francesca R
Girl
Probably key is Cameron campaigning to stay in the EU as well. Which I would expect to be the case.
Why would that induce him to make concessions to the SNP? He knows they support continued EU membership anyway. They can't put pressure on him over this issue. They can't say, give us what we want or we'll tell our supporters to vote against membership of the EU.
Francesca R
Girl
I mean if Cameron eventually sides with wanting the UK out of the EU (which might carry that referendum into an "out" vote) then that significantly increases Sturgeon's incentive to have another indyref. And if she though she would win it in such circumstances I am sure she would go ahead.
She would at first threaten the "multiple veto" option I think; that Scotland should not be taken out of the EU on the basis of an England-only majority. That would be a fearsome prospect for Cameron to have to deal with. As you imply, it would be seen as a reason for separatists to demand another Indyref. People who have no strong feelings about the EU would vote to stay in, just in order to create this situation, if they want Scottish independence.
And UKIP has said such awful things about Scotland that Cameron would suffer badly here if he was seen to be indulging its xenophobic supporters. For his sake, I hope he now accepts that the danger posed by UKIP has abated, as it didn't increase its representation in Parliament at this election.
UKIP's 1911 manifesto on the Scottish Parliament
I wonder if Farage is saying that now. Perhaps not.
Francesca R
Girl
I don't think Cameron or most tories want to leave the EU. I may be wrong.
Opposition to immigration is for sure quite big. On the left, too. Which sucks.
Opposition to immigration is for sure quite big. On the left, too. Which sucks.
Given what Cameron did in setting up the coalition, I can see him quite happily offering the SNP more powers, but no more money, setting up the Scottish Government to have to deal with the 'there's no money left' issue.
I think while the analysts and activists on both sides are arguing about powers and Independence , Osborne will get on his merry way making more austerity cuts and that the SNP will have less to spend on devolved issues and will have to make more cuts to public spending at the Scottish Parliament. I suspect that there will be no more money and many more cuts to be borne. The SNP have already made many cuts to public sector jobs in Scotland and have presided over radical changes to the delivery of services by tendering out key work to both the private and voluntary sectors. Also, I wonder what 2nd term great new idea will get tested in Scotland where the Tories have nothing to lose.
angrysoba
Philosophile
What are the prospects for the SNP saying that a vote to leave the EU should trigger a separate vote for Scottish independence within the EU?
If she made those demands, I wonder if English voters - faced with the choice of being out of the EU with no Scotland, or in the EU with Scotland - would choose the former even if they were originally in favour of the UK leaving the EU.
If I were David Cameron, I would get hold of the document that the Nats produced for the Indyref last year, turn to the page on Economics, and fulfill it's every wish/ demand/ promise, and more. I would give Scotland full fiscal autonomy.
The featherbedded public spending will soon bump up against the reality of total net income, and with all of the SNP's demands having been met, and with a 7 billion shortfall in income over current expenditure, it would be hilarious to watch the SNP wriggle and sqiggle trying to blame the evil England for everything in its usual Mugabe-esque way.
Other than the poll tax 3 decades ago, have there been any other examples of this?
They do in fact say it, in the sense that they say the votes of each country shout be taken separately and Scotland should not leave the EU unless Scottish voters agree, whatever England decides.
I don't know how important Scotland is to ordinary English voters. Keeping Scotland is very important to the UK political class.
Well, you do to an extent. I have posted before that Scottish independence (in the past) has been more popular in England than it was in Scotland, and I have linked to a number of polls which showed exactly that.
Yes but that could mean either indifference or some active grievance against Scotland. I don't think English voters are very well informed about Scotland anyway; or at least they weren't in the past of which you speak.
Absolutely. 100%
However, you said you didn't know how important the English felt Scotland was to them. You do, because we've discussed this before.
The EU point is actually not as easy as everyone suggests, the membership of the EU is a UK membership. There is no recognition of the 4 nations and in fact Scotland in EU terms is region 10 of the UK. If Scotland was independent then there could be a question to be answered and rules to be changed. Under present rules, if Scotland was left representing the UK, it would also inherit the liability as net contributor. This is not a negotiating point for Cameron and Sturgeon but for Cameron and council of Ministers.
I am assuming you mean with no more cash on the table. That would be interesting but I suspect that might come back to bite Cameron in ways we can't imagine. And it would leave the very interesting point of where in English waters do you want to put Trident. I personally think it would look quite good on the Thames near Woolwich Arsenal.
Various models of the NHS were tested in the past under the last Tory government in their second term along with various PPI models. It has been a useful beta testing site given that it has no consequences for votes to the Tories.
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Francesca R
Girl
The Tories will continue fiscal contraction because that is in the manifesto they won with. The SNP has no more or less legitimacy than other opposition parties to challenge that. The "anti-austerity coalition" would not be big enough even if Sinn Fein joined it. The term "anti austerity" is mis-used of course. The SNPs fiscal plans for the UK--such as could be gleaned from their manifesto--were quite similar to Labour's but a bit looser.
It would certainly be in Cameron's interest to give the Scottish Parliament as much freedom as possible to balance its own books, (ex public borrowing and money printing). If Scotland was free to tax banker bonuses, scrap bedroom tax, raise top rate income tax to 50% (while it probably gets abolished elsewhere), raise minimum wage, fully subsidise undergraduate tuition, social care, prescriptions etc . . . That would most definitely be a controlled experiment worth doing.
PS remember that the Tories have "everything to gain" in Scotland. It makes zero sense to write off somewhere with no electoral downside and only upside. They have a huge interest in the SNP ultimately hanging themselves.
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