Will Israel pre-emptively strike Iran?

[Darth Rotor]

Any speculation on what the Muslim reaction would be if the US shot down an Israeli plane that was on the way to attack Iran?

Polite applause?

DR

 

[Kerberos]

It takes less than a year to mobilize sufficiently to start a big war, two to three for a more significantly long war. Decades is an unrealistic time horizon, the "come as you are" nature of major war does not require more than a year to percolate into the big deal.

I wasn't predicting that they'd mobilize for decades before going to war, simply saying that I obviously can't predict what consequences any given event indefinitely into the future.

As for how long it takes to mobilize for a major war that depends entirely on who you are and what war you're preparing. If you lack the economic strength to build a sufficiently strong military force, forever won’t be long enough.

Since you're the one who finds WW3 plausible why don't you outline what you see as a plausible path to war? Who does what and why? Does Russia invade Western Europe? A war they can't win with conventional weapons. Does China Attack Taiwan? A war they can't win with conventional weapons. Does Japan have another go at Pearl Harbour? A war they can't win with conventional weapons. All of the above? Something else?

And you do?

I won't claim to be an expert, but I think I understand the Strategic situation significantly better than most people, yes.

Based on what?

Sorry? What do I "base on what?"?

We agree.
We disagree on what will or won't be a catalyst to the above.

As I said, you're the one who finds it plausible so why don't you explain what you see happening, or at least possibly happening? I can't think of a scenario that doesn't involve several heads of state simultaneously going nuts for no readily apparent reason. You know “Israel attacks Iran, let’s ruin our economy building an army, and then get it destroyed, launching a pointless attack against a superior enemy”.

 

[steverino]

steverino mentions:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5377552.stm
BBC

http://www.middle-east-online.com/English/saudi/?id=17564
Yediot Aharonot

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From DEBKA military sources:

The Saudi Kingdom has deployed a major naval concentration in the Red Sea along Saudi Arabia’s west coast (to the south of Israel). The oil kingdom has placed its military and fleet at their highest level of preparedness against Al Qaeda-instigated terrorist attacks along this coast, particularly at the ports of Jeddah and Yanbu.

Thanks for the info, Web. Sounds intriguing to me.

 

[webfusion]

UPDATE:

Iran test-fires nuclear-capable missiles.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/783082.html

Massive war-maneuvers now underway, code-named "Great Prophet" ---

The Iranian Shihab-3 missile, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead to Israel, soars aloft on Thursday. (AP)

 

[Darth Rotor]

I wasn't predicting that they'd mobilize for decades before going to war, simply saying that I obviously can't predict what consequences any given event indefinitely into the future.

As for how long it takes to mobilize for a major war that depends entirely on who you are and what war you're preparing. If you lack the economic strength to build a sufficiently strong military force, forever won’t be long enough.

Since you're the one who finds WW3 plausible why don't you outline what you see as a plausible path to war? Who does what and why? Does Russia invade Western Europe? A war they can't win with conventional weapons. Does China Attack Taiwan? A war they can't win with conventional weapons. Does Japan have another go at Pearl Harbour? A war they can't win with conventional weapons. All of the above? Something else?


I won't claim to be an expert, but I think I understand the Strategic situation significantly better than most people, yes.
Sorry? What do I "base on what?"?



As I said, you're the one who finds it plausible so why don't you explain what you see happening, or at least possibly happening? I can't think of a scenario that doesn't involve several heads of state simultaneously going nuts for no readily apparent reason. You know “Israel attacks Iran, let’s ruin our economy building an army, and then get it destroyed, launching a pointless attack against a superior enemy”.

I'll take you up on that this weekend, as the answer is more complicated than a short posting could do justice to. It is also a question well asked, since my biggest unknown is the intention or willingness of any party outside of US, Russia, or China to resort to a nuke. I am fairly confident none of the big three would, or will. If you will bide your time for a day or two, I'll try to do your question justice.

DR