Will Clegg have the bottle

[Last of the Fraggles]

Nope, even if half the Lib Dems rebel, a Tory/LD coalition still has the numbers.

In a Lab/Lib coalition, even assuming they got the SDLP, Welsh & Scot Nats on board, they would have 328 votes (less probably at least two deputy speakers who don't vote). A rebellion of half a dozen would be enough to bring the coalition down. The numbers just don't work.

Also, it is incorrect to assume that all Lib Dems are nearer to Labour than the Tories.

If half the Lib Dems rebel then Clegg will have to do something to stop his party self destructing. The coalition would quickly collapse.

I don't for a minute assume all Libs are closer to Lab than Tory but I would say more of them are.

Think Clegg will live to regret this deal, the SNP will be loving it. A Tory in power, the Libs in bed with them and Labour threw Scotland under the bus for their own political ends. Would imagine a big SNP swing next year.

 

[Professor Yaffle]

Bye bye Brown:

Gordon Brown has announced he is resigning as UK prime minister.

Mr Brown is on his way to officially tender his resignation to the Queen, and recommend that Conservative leader David Cameron should succeed him.

Speaking alongside his wife Sarah outside No 10 Downing Street, he said the job had been "a privilege" and wished his successor well.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8675913.stm

 

[Rolfe]

Think Clegg will live to regret this deal, the SNP will be loving it. A Tory in power, the Libs in bed with them and Labour threw Scotland under the bus for their own political ends. Would imagine a big SNP swing next year.

It's interesting you take that view. It's my view also, however I've been known to be over-optimistic before.

I think it's likely to damage the Scottish LibDem vote quite considerably. Where will that vote go? I would think the SNP has a chance of picking up some of it anyway.

If the public spending cuts are as severe as we're led to believe, then it's likely the Conservative vote in Scotland won't pick up. They've recovered very little from their nadir days in the 1990s. A lot will depend on whether Cameron can pass the blame on to the devolved governments, but he's likely to find that quite hard.

The interesting question is whether the Scottish knee-jerk vote for Labour will continue as it has done. There's unlikely to be another Scottish Labour leader, which is probably one reason they held up so well. And as you say, Labour appeared to be prepared to throw Scotland under a bus and allow Cameron into no 10 rather then accept the SNP's perfectly reasonable offer of talks about a co-operation deal. It was first "we won't because we hate them", then it turned into "we won't because they'd want concessions". Uh, yes, concessions for the Scottish budgetary settlement. This is of course going to come up next spring.

I've given up imagining that anything will stop Scots as a block voting Labour in large numbers, but it can't really go on forever. We'll see.

Rolfe.

 

[Rolfe]

I think we've been talking past each other then. I was arguing that the coalition WOULD work because the SNP WOULDN'T act in a childish way. You seemed to be suggesting that the coalition wouldn't work because the SNP wouldn't support it.

No. I was saying the coalition wouldn't work because the arithmetic didn't stack up. You can't run a government with exactly the same number of votes as the opposition (give or take), and a few mavericks sitting on the sidelines, even if these mavericks will never vote with the opposition. (And I wouldn't be too sure about Plaid Cymru, they can be quite devious in that department - they seem to be able to vote with the Tories occasionally on the right issues, and spin it as a deal done for the advantage of Wales.)

There are back-bench rebellions, foreign trade delegations, illness, deaths and by-elections - these happen to oppositions as well of course, but it's not going to be a one-way street forever. The arithmetic never worked, and it wouldn't have been stable even with a confidence and supply deal with the SNP.

What I was suggesting is that the SNP should vote the way their party/members/electorate would want them to vote regardless of what Labour said about them.

I don't think you need to suggest that, that was a given throughout the discussion.

This is all a bit academic now though. I think Salmond played a blinder though. Instead of sitting back and letting the bigger parties argue it out, he made it very clear that the SNP was prepared to set aside party rivalry and try to deal to get a government the people of Scotland voted for. If this had come to pass, it would have been a difficult alliance, but it would have been the right thing to support. (I think it was doomed from the start and Salmond may have thought that also, but his handling of the PR part was superb.)

Labour obliged beyond anybody's wildest dreams. We's rather see a Tory government than talk to the SNP. Then they promptly capitulate and let Cameron in. This was probably inevitable anyway, but now it can be presented as, of course the SNP were prepared to support a Lib/Lab coalition, but Labour threw that away.

The next set of opinion polls in Scotland will be quite interesting.

Rolfe.

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

This is all a bit academic now though. I think Salmond played a blinder though. Instead of sitting back and letting the bigger parties argue it out, he made it very clear that the SNP was prepared to set aside party rivalry and try to deal to get a government the people of Scotland voted for. If this had come to pass, it would have been a difficult alliance, but it would have been the right thing to support. (I think it was doomed from the start and Salmond may have thought that also, but his handling of the PR part was superb.)

Labour obliged beyond anybody's wildest dreams. We's rather see a Tory government than talk to the SNP. Then they promptly capitulate and let Cameron in. This was probably inevitable anyway, but now it can be presented as, of course the SNP were prepared to support a Lib/Lab coalition, but Labour threw that away.

The next set of opinion polls in Scotland will be quite interesting.

Rolfe.

Not sure about Salmond putting his 2p in to be honest. I'm sure his supporters will see it as him offering to play a part, but a lot of people will also see it as him trying to act as if he was important when in fact he was irrelevant. It did come across that way to be honest. Salmond does tend to be a bit Marmite in that way. The SNP were totally sidelined at this election, and became largely irrelevant. Which maybe they are in the UK parliament.

The big SNP opportunity is now there for them to go after in the Scottish parliament. Its up to the SNP to go and win it, no excuses, no complaining, no whinging - go win it.

If the SNP don't manage a really strong show next year I think they'll fade away for a long time to come. Crunch time for the party.

 

[Jaggy Bunnet]

Are you sure about that? I distinctly remember him being listed as 'speaker' on their election night results analysis and assumed he was lumped in with the others?

Yep, thought it was a bit odd myself but I guess it normally doesn't matter. And technically he is not the Speaker until he is reelected in the new parliament. No reason why he should be treated any differently to his deputies anyway, none of them vote.

From this link:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/

Tory 306
Labour 258
Lib Dem 57
DUP 8
SNP 6
SF 5
PC 3
SDLP 3
Green 1
Alliance 1
Other 1 (Sylvia Hermon - Independent Unionist)

Total 649 (one vote postponed due to death of candidate, safe Tory seat)

Only place the speaker can be is in the Tory total.

 

[Jaggy Bunnet]

Labour obliged beyond anybody's wildest dreams. We's rather see a Tory government than talk to the SNP. Then they promptly capitulate and let Cameron in. This was probably inevitable anyway, but now it can be presented as, of course the SNP were prepared to support a Lib/Lab coalition, but Labour threw that away.

The next set of opinion polls in Scotland will be quite interesting.

Rolfe.

Don't think we'll be hearing much about "the SNP let Thatcher in" for quite some time.

 

[Rolfe]

Not sure about Salmond putting his 2p in to be honest. I'm sure his supporters will see it as him offering to play a part, but a lot of people will also see it as him trying to act as if he was important when in fact he was irrelevant. It did come across that way to be honest. Salmond does tend to be a bit Marmite in that way. The SNP were totally sidelined at this election, and became largely irrelevant. Which maybe they are in the UK parliament.

People who don't like Salmond and aren't favourable to the SNP will always think that. You really think sitting schtumm on the sidelines was going to advane anything?

The big SNP opportunity is now there for them to go after in the Scottish parliament. Its up to the SNP to go and win it, no excuses, no complaining, no whinging - go win it.

If the SNP don't manage a really strong show next year I think they'll fade away for a long time to come. Crunch time for the party.

And this morning, the sky was blue.... Why do you think the SNP campaign was so poorly resourced last week? Why do you think the SNP is seriously unkeen on a rerun of the general election any time soon? It's always been all about May 2011. And politics is the art of the possible.

Rolfe.

 

[Rolfe]

Don't think we'll be hearing much about "the SNP let Thatcher in" for quite some time.

Well, we might, but we also know what the retort will be.

Rolfe.

 

[Ashles]

Is there any vague remote chance we can possiby ever think that this general election might not entirely be about the SNP?

Hard as it may be for certain posters to comprehend but there are actually voters outside Scotland, some of whom are concerned with issues that aren't entirely about Scotland.

 

[geni]

It was first "we won't because we hate them", then it turned into "we won't because they'd want concessions". Uh, yes, concessions for the Scottish budgetary settlement.

With the current state of the public financies any party looking to be brought off falls into the irresponsible category.

 

[Jaggy Bunnet]

Is there any vague remote chance we can possiby ever think that this general election might not entirely be about the SNP?

Hard as it may be for certain posters to comprehend but there are actually voters outside Scotland, some of whom are concerned with issues that aren't entirely about Scotland.

Yes, the evil oppression that has prevented you and others from posting about these issues will surely come to an end soon.

After all, it is well known that this board is run by a Scottish mafia who have been deleting all posts not on the topic of Scotland.

 

[Rolfe]

With the current state of the public financies any party looking to be brought off falls into the irresponsible category.

I suggest you look at the detail of what Salmond was suggesting before taking that line. The LibDems are open to exactly the same charge of course, negotiating tax breaks as part of their discussions.

Rolfe.

 

[geni]

I suggest you look at the detail of what Salmond was suggesting before taking that line.

The SNP is understood to have a series of specific goals. It wants the UK government to bring forward another £350m of capital expenditure this year,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/may/11/coalition-talks-snp-labour-libdems

FWIW the DUP is about £20 million cheaper per vote (they've got more seats and appear to have only been looking for 300 million or so).

The LibDems are open to exactly the same charge of course, negotiating tax breaks as part of their discussions.

Nah the lib dems have more documented spending cuts planned than anyone else and are known to oppose at least some tory tax cuts.

Heh one problem the lib dems are actualy going to have in the area of the budget is looking like they've actualy won any concessions (inheritance tax perhaps? that must have run out of political usefulness for the conservatives by now).

 

[Rolfe]

Oh dear. The Grauniad?

Rolfe.

 

[geni]

Oh dear. The Grauniad?

Rolfe.

You have better documentation of his negotiating positions? Others are going for simular figures:

http://politics.caledonianmercury.com/2010/05/09/salmonds-715m-plan-shows-change-of-mind-on-deals/

Heh on the pluss side for the SNP I suppose they can point to it as evidence of their working relationship with plaid cymru.

 

[Debaser]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/may/11/coalition-talks-snp-labour-libdems

FWIW the DUP is about £20 million cheaper per vote (they've got more seats and appear to have only been looking for 300 million or so).

What is it with this £300m figure? That's the same as both the NIrish and Welsh wanted. Is the figure 3 lucky in celtic culture?

 

[Soapy Sam]

If ever I find a celtic culture, I'll let you know.

 

[Ashles]

Yes, the evil oppression that has prevented you and others from posting about these issues will surely come to an end soon.

After all, it is well known that this board is run by a Scottish mafia who have been deleting all posts not on the topic of Scotland.

 

[Lothian]

What is it with this £300m figure? That's the same as both the NIrish and Welsh wanted. Is the figure 3 lucky in celtic culture?

If ever I find a celtic culture, I'll let you know.

Here is where the figure 3 proved unlucky for Celtic. Can't help feeling there might be a better headline somewhere.........