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Will Clegg have the bottle

little grey rabbit

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The Independent argues that
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...e-the-system-he-must-not-blow-it-1968188.html
that Labour will offer the LDs a real chance at electoral reform and therefore he should go with Brown.

Of course possibly if he went with Brown, he might damage his own popularity and the chances of electoral reform winning a referendum. However, with a referendum there is at least a chance. With Cameron he will just be heading off into future irrelevance. And who knows, Cameron and the Tories are so desperate for power, that if firmly told that agreeing to a referendum on PR was their only option, they might buckle (but I doubt it)

Whats the bet that the Liberals live up to their historic reputation and prove too limp wristed to take the chance that has presented itself.
 
I don't think they will go either way and just let the Tories have a minority Government.

There is no way the Lib Dems can go with Labour while Brown is top man.
 
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I too think there may be a minority government. Which I suspect means another election fairly soon ...
 
Which is what I think also, he lacks the bottle. What do the LDs gain by letting the Tories go and get a proper majority in a year or so, except prove what the main parties have always said: a vote for the liberals is a wasted vote.

I am not entirely sure that the UK electorate would back proportional representation in a referendum, but we will never know unless they are asked.

Over 6 million votes and less than 60 seats and a leader incapable of grasping the once in a generation opportunity
 
The Torys will never agree to PR.

Consider the make up of this parliament if PR was in place.

Party | Actual | PR | Change
Conservative | 306 | 238 | -68
Labour | 258 | 191 | -67
Liberal Democrat | 57 | 151 | 94
UK Independence Party | 0 | 20 | 20
British National Party | 0 | 13 | 13
Scottish National Party | 6 | 11 | 5
Green | 1 | 6 | 5
Democratic Unionist Party | 8 | 4 | -4
Sinn Fein | 5 | 4 | -1
Plaid Cymru | 3 | 4 | 1
Social Democratic & Labour Party | 3 | 2 | -1
Ulster Conservatives and Unionists - New Force | 0 | 2 | 2
Alliance Party | 1 | 1 | 0
English Democrats | 0 | 1 | 1
Respect-Unity Coalition | 0 | 1 | 1
Others | 1 | 1 | 0
Despite the huge swing to the Tories this time in the above scenario Liberals and Labour would be able to form a government with 27 seats to spare. The Tories would never get a look in. Of course the same argument could be made for the Tories and Liberals joining and shutting Labour out but the other two are far closer politically.
 
I think you will find that
a. the electorate always wants to see government change, so the idea that a change in electoral system would led to a left or center left lock on power is just very unlikely.
b. the main parties in opposition will generally position themselves as close as possible to the governing party, so as to encourage the "time for a change" sentiment.
c. parties under PR tend to focus more on more representing their particular niche.

So the Liberals will evolve into a true centrist that can work with either party, the Conservatives will stay broad church right, and you will probably see either UK independence or a very economic dry party that will represent City interests spring up.
Conservatives then will have options to form coalitions either with the center or with the right wing. The Labor party will have options to form coalitions either with the center or with Green, and Socialist or Nationalists (except BNP) minor parties.

Incidentally, it is usual to have a threshold for representation in PR systems, such as five per cent, so you don't need to worry about having Nick Griffen holding the balance of power.

If you want an excellent system on paper you can't go past the Tasmanian state electoral system. But I think the British scrutineers might collapse under its complexity.
 
This isn't really that tricky.

Brown just resigns now as PM. What he can get from Clegg isn't worth having, it's a busted second hand watch now. He can salvage some dignity for himself and when he quits as Leader of Labour, he can give his party a fighting chance in the soon to come election.

The Liberals can then walk away from Dave, integrity intact. There's no way that Cameron is going to go anywhere near PR for him, the Tory "string pullers" are already grumbling in the background.

There is one minor tragedy here though, and it was a sign of Clegg's inexperience. His mistake was back when he said he wouldn't prop up a Brown lead Government. As I said at the time in another thread, he could think it, but to say it was a disaster. That killed stone dead the casual tactical voting that used to happen, it certainly hit (imo) the liberal total number of seats and I would suggest it also hit the Labour number of seats. To Have voted for the liberals in a lib/con contested seat would then seem to Labourites to be a mistake.
I soundly believe that is the primary reason for the failure of the Clegg effect to translate into seats.

So the solution is easy. All walk away.

Clegg learns his lesson, the Labour party get a new leader, the Tory party stab Dave in the back, they don't like failure (much like Dr Evil).
 
The next government will need to try and balance the £160 billion deficit with cuts throughout - far wiser to let the Tories do this job, making themselves very unpopular, and when another election looms, Clegg (or his follower) can try and get the legislation through for voting reform.
 
This thread is a great example of the differences between the two politics forums.
 
Hopefully at least clegg will have the integrity not to jump into bed with the Tories for the sake of a few cabinet posts and some 'concessions' on things that the Tories don't really care about.

This is Clegg's big opportunity to get some movement on the PR issue and if that means he has to partner up with Labour I'd support him in that. This election really brought home to me how irrelevant my vote is with the FPTP system as I'm in a safe Labour seat.

I voted Lib Dem partly tactically and partly because I like their policies. If they end up in a Lib/Con coalition that'll be the very last time they get my vote.
 
 
 
Just watching the News at Ten and listening to what Clegg was saying to the masses outside their HQ, I get the feeling he is going to roll over and let the Tories have what they want for a slice of the action.

Things could get interesting.
 
funk de fino said:
I am talking politics not the rabid Israel-Palestine shennanigans, that could be in the other section going by the posters.
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Those threads could probably do with being ring walled fenced into their own sub-sub category....:)

Back to Cleggy - i'm surprised he thinks it's worth talking to the Conservatives - he's not going to get much in concessions and he'll be tied to what will become the most unpopular government in recent times (which is saying something). It will also kinda deal-away the liberals into irrelevance - why vote for a third party if they just subsume themselves into one of the other big two at the first opportunity?

Maybe his head will be turned by the promise of actual political power (Chancellor? Foreign secretary?) Who knows. Far better for the party to walk away, do a deal with labour, implement PR, and call another election within a couple of years....

not necessarily better for the country, but better for the lib dems surely....
 
andyandy said:
Those threads could probably do with being ring walled fenced into their own sub-sub category....:)

Back to Cleggy - i'm surprised he thinks it's worth talking to the Conservatives - he's not going to get much in concessions and he'll be tied to what will become the most unpopular government in recent times (which is saying something). It will also kinda deal-away the liberals into irrelevance - why vote for a third party if they just subsume themselves into one of the other big two at the first opportunity?

Maybe his head will be turned by the promise of actual political power (Chancellor? Foreign secretary?) Who knows. Far better for the party to walk away, do a deal with labour, implement PR, and call another election within a couple of years....

not necessarily better for the country, but better for the lib dems surely....
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From the Lib Dems perspective a Brown led Labour is impossible imo, do a deal with the Tories and not get voting reform and they are dead in the water and I can't see the Tories backing down on that.

They are best off to walk away and allow the Tories to get through some of the unpopular stuff for the next 12 -18 month then make a minority Tory Government impossible.

The other interesting angle on this is the Tory faithfull, I can't see them being at all happy with anything approaching Con / Lib agreement.

edit: sorry by deal with Labour do you mean for the next election? Makes more sense if so.
 
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Delscottio said:
From the Lib Dems perspective a Brown led Labour is impossible imo, do a deal with the Tories and not get voting reform and they are dead in the water and I can't see the Tories backing down on that.

They are best off to walk away and allow the Tories to get through some of the unpopular stuff for the next 12 -18 month then make a minority Tory Government impossible.

The other interesting angle on this is the Tory faithfull, I can't see them being at all happy with anything approaching Con / Lib agreement.

edit: sorry by deal with Labour do you mean for the next election? Makes more sense if so.
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i think they could make a deal stick now - it would be contingent on labour ditching brown and replacing him with johnson/milliband - i don't think the electorate would stomach any more brown....Between the two they got over 50% of the popular vote - the right-wing press might not like it, but so be it.

But as you say it might be best for both Lib/Lab to be well out of any of the political decisions made over the next year or two - as Merv said just before the election - the winners of this election are going to be out of power for a generation.

I'd put money on a Tory minority government - but that might be underestimating the politicians making the decisions - after all why do politicans go into politics if not to get as much power as possible for themselves? Clegg's head might be turned by the Tories, and if not, the Lab/Libs might try to cling to power with a coalition even if it's to the long term detriment of their parties.....
 
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