Will Clegg have the bottle

MarkCorrigan said:
By that reckoning the BNP have more legitimacy than the SNP.

Fact is, the Tories failed to get a majority in seats or votes, so if they can't form a government, then screw them.

A Lib/Lab coalition, assuming that all the voters agree with it, will have a considerably higher number of voters behind it.
Click to expand...
Just over 50% of the votes, in fact. I'm going to give up the prediction game as it looks as if any Lib/Con deal is on the rocks. Perhaps Clegg had is eye on the prize of PR all along, which would fit with Rolfe's view of the Lib Dems as rather two-faced.
 
Political reform has always been on the Lib Dem agenda - in what way is trying to get it two-faced?

Think it would have been far more two-faced to go along with the Tories for a few cabinet seats, no?
 
Dragon said:
Just over 50% of the votes, in fact. I'm going to give up the prediction game as it looks as if any Lib/Con deal is on the rocks. Perhaps Clegg had is eye on the prize of PR all along, which would fit with Rolfe's view of the Lib Dems as rather two-faced.
Click to expand...

How would they be two faced? Thats what they fought the election on. If the tories wont deliver that then they go to the next party.
If anything they ve kept every pledge talk t cons if no agreeable deal they move on.
 
So the alternative is a gummint in which everyone except the Conservatives, including SNP, DUP and (possibly even) Sinn Feinn will have the casting vote?

As far as realpolitik dickering goes, Clegg would be nuts to accept anything less from Labour than from the Tories- and crazy to accept anything other than a commitment to PR.
 
Last edited:
Soapy Sam said:
So the alternative is a gummint in which everyone except the Conservatives, including SNP, DUP and (possibly even) Sinn Feinn will have the casting vote?

...snip...
Click to expand...

Is the magical 328 figure that is banded about including the Sinn Féin's 5 MPs? If so surely it needs to be reduced as they don't particpate at Westminister?
 
Darat said:
Is the magical 328 figure that is banded about including the Sinn Féin's 5 MPs? If so surely it needs to be reduced as they don't particpate at Westminister?
Click to expand...
Not sure but 650 MPs. Take off 5 SF and one speaker gives 644. Half is 322 add one to break the tie and you need 323 votes.

Lib/lab together would have 315 so they would need either 8 more from

Democratic Unionist Party 8
Scottish National Party 6
Plaid Cymru 3
Social Democratic & Labour Party 3
Green 1
Other 1

If the Nationalists don't vote on an issue they only need 3 more.
 
Don't the SDLP always vote with Labour anyway? That'd give a Lib/Lab alliance 318, enough to pass legislation if PC/SNP can be persuaded to abstain.
 
Delscottio said:
If the tories wont deliver that then they go to the next party.
Click to expand...

Well, Brown standing down has apparently put the Tories into a major flap, and they're supposedly now promising a referendum on electoral reform.

If I was Clegg I'd be looking very carefully at the terms on that one. "Yes, we'll have an initial consultation period in closed committee lasting five years, then..."
 
AV isn't PR of course. It certainly wouldn't change much. I wonder if Clegg will go for it?

Rolfe.
 
It's nothing if not exciting.

Just waiting for the Market and city threats now and for the Tory "Oh you will get you backside slapped by Gideon for this you Naughty Libs!"
 
Rolfe said:
AV isn't PR of course. It certainly wouldn't change much. I wonder if Clegg will go for it?

Rolfe.
Click to expand...

If it takes them to have to threaten to walk away before any concession is given it's hardly an open honest strong stable trusting government in operation. It would still be a climb down on his one big shot at change
 
Oh and nice one Gordon for kicking the bee hive.

I suspect I still have some of the old "angry young man" left in me some place.
 
Rolfe said:
AV isn't PR of course. It certainly wouldn't change much. I wonder if Clegg will go for it?
Click to expand...

Unlikely. It would probably hurt the lib dems if anything since it removes people's insentive to back the biggest of the alturnative parties.
 
Is it just me or does there seem to be a definite bias in the reporting of the coalition discussions from the Beeb and ITV? They definitely seem to be backing the Tories and pressuring Clegg/Libs down that path.

Maybe just my paranoia kicking in.
 
Darat said:
Is the magical 328 figure that is banded about including the Sinn Féin's 5 MPs? If so surely it needs to be reduced as they don't particpate at Westminister?
Click to expand...

If they had the casting vote in something that interested them, they might change their attitude. They have been around long enough to be accepted as a "real" party outside nornirn.
 
Would they take their seats in view of the Oath of Allegience, though? I thought that was an absolute hard-line no-no for them.

Rolfe.
 
Rolfe said:
Would they take their seats in view of the Oath of Allegience, though? I thought that was an absolute hard-line no-no for them.

Rolfe.
Click to expand...

As I understand it is is, they can be counted out to all intents and purposes
 
Lothian said:
Not sure but 650 MPs. Take off 5 SF and one speaker gives 644. Half is 322 add one to break the tie and you need 323 votes.

Lib/lab together would have 315 so they would need either 8 more from

Democratic Unionist Party 8
Scottish National Party 6
Plaid Cymru 3
Social Democratic & Labour Party 3
Green 1
Other 1

If the Nationalists don't vote on an issue they only need 3 more.
Click to expand...


Here's the BBC graphic they've been showing on TV for the past couple of days.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8659878.stm

Labour plus LibDem is 315.

They then put the 8 DUP and one Independent Unionist automatically with the Conservatives to give them 315, and the SDLP with Labour to give 318. Still almost neck and neck.

This leaves 6 SNP, 3 PC, one Green and one Alliance holding the balance of power.

Labour has (rumour) said it would rather see the Conservatives in government than do any deal with the SNP. The SNP is not averse to dealing with Labour, but during the election campaign said the party would support legislation on an ad hoc basis so far as it was good for Scotland rather than going into a formal alliance or coalition.

There's a suggestion Labour might go ahead with a formal LibDem/SDLP coalition and bank on the nationalists abstaining rather than voting with the Tories. This is a pretty fair bet, but the arithmetic looks much too tight to me even with that assumption.

How certain are the BBC's assumptions about the NI parties, anyway? I'm no expert but I suspect the BBC does have experts compiling these charts.

Rolfe.
 
Rolfe said:
Would they take their seats in view of the Oath of Allegience, though? I thought that was an absolute hard-line no-no for them.

Rolfe.
Click to expand...

Why would it?
You reckon they are any less capable of lying through their teeth than anyone else at Westminster?
I wonder how many of all parties would fail a lie detector test on the oath?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom