Will Clegg have the bottle

[MarkCorrigan]

Of course your figures are only really relevant if you consider that everyone in a constituency supports the winner.

In reality the Tories got a little under 10 million votes in England. Labour a little over 7 and the Lib Dems a little over 6. With just over 25 million voting in England a Lib/Lab pact would have the support of well over half* the electorate.



* assuming tactical voting is self cancelling.

Quite.

In my constituency, the incumbent Tory had his majority cut slightly, and if you assume that the UKIP, English Democrats and BNP voters (right wing parties) will side with the Tories, and the Lib Dems, Labour and Science Party voters (left wing) work together that results in a split of 27303 Tory supporters and 26971 Lib/Lab pact supporters. That's hardly a ringing victory for the Tories.

 

[Delscottio]

Quite.

In my constituency, the incumbent Tory had his majority cut slightly, and if you assume that the UKIP, English Democrats and BNP voters (right wing parties) will side with the Tories, and the Lib Dems, Labour and Science Party voters (left wing) work together that results in a split of 27303 Tory supporters and 26971 Lib/Lab pact supporters. That's hardly a ringing victory for the Tories.

But it is a victory under our electoral system. I don't like the argument about the populist vote from either side. However as I said before the Tories brought it up to claim victory so it is now a valid(ish) argument back.

Thats also assuming the Lib Dems would go to labour which I am not sure they all would.

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

Dunno. Look at this alternative view. (I posted something similar in the West Lothian Question thread.)

Here's the outcome for Great Britain, split between the three countries.

|England|Wales|Scotland
Conservative| 268| 8| 1
Labour| 191| 26| 41
LibDem| 43| 3| 11
Other| 1| 3| 6

If anything other than a Conservative minority government or a Conservative/LibDem coalition comes out of this, how is England going to react to having (in effect) the Labour government they rejected foisted on them by way of the fact that Scotland and Wales voted Labour? If you take England alone, the Tories have a perfectly respectable working majority.

Remember, Scotland and Wales have their own parliaments. England doesn't. Westminster acts as the English parliament for English domestic affairs. This could go down like a lead balloon.

Rolfe.

I think you omit from this argument the will of the people who voted Lib Dem though. People like me. I didn't vote Lib Dem thinking that Clegg would prop up old Cuprinol features' anti-Scottish Tory mob and I doubt many of his supporters did either.

Clegg is there to represent the people who voted for him and his party - not necessarily the wider view of the nation. Mathematically, the Tories might have got more seats than the other options but I don't think that's is enough justification for Clegg to just jump into bed with him.

The other side of the coin for your comments are also what happens in Scotland if a Conservative government gets in with 1 MP in the country. If the Lib Dems prop up the Tories I think they will lose a lot of support in Scotland and also potentially stir up a lot of pro-Independence sentiment they would probably rather not see.

If the Libs decide to form a coalition with the Tories for the sake of a couple of cabinet seats then I think they can forget about Scotland for the next 20 or 30 years. Speaking personally as a Lib Dem voter I know this will be my last vote for them in any parliament if they enter a coalition with Cameron.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

But it is a victory under our electoral system. I don't like the argument about the populist vote from either side. However as I said before the Tories brought it up to claim victory so it is now a valid(ish) argument back.

Thats also assuming the Lib Dems would go to labour which I am not sure they all would.

Again, I'm responding to Rolfe's point about people not being happy if Clegg goes with Brown.

 

[Delscottio]

Again, I'm responding to Rolfe's point about people not being happy if Clegg goes with Brown.

Apologies, Read that out of context.

 

[Architect]

If the Libs decide to form a coalition with the Tories for the sake of a couple of cabinet seats then I think they can forget about Scotland for the next 20 or 30 years. Speaking personally as a Lib Dem voter I know this will be my last vote for them in any parliament if they enter a coalition with Cameron.

In all fairness, they're the third part in Holyrood anyway and there's little chance of that changing. They may decide it's worth the price....

 

[Lothian]

In all fairness, they're the third part in Holyrood anyway and there's little chance of that changing. They may decide it's worth the price....

If they replicated this share of the vote in the next Scottish elections they will be on a par with the SNP.

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

In all fairness, they're the third part in Holyrood anyway and there's little chance of that changing. They may decide it's worth the price....

They may... but it would be a dangerous signal to send if they want to keep the UK together.

A Lib/Con coalition might well see me joining the SNP next week.

Clegg would be a fool to sell out for anything less than a referendum on PR anyway. If he meekly caves in to some media pressure to join the Cons then he's basically consigning his party to irrelevance for the forseeable future.

His responsibility is to the millions who voted LibDem not to the millions who voted Tory. I hope he bears that in mind.

 

[geni]

They may... but it would be a dangerous signal to send if they want to keep the UK together.

A Lib/Con coalition might well see me joining the SNP next week.

Clegg would be a fool to sell out for anything less than a referendum on PR anyway. If he meekly caves in to some media pressure to join the Cons then he's basically consigning his party to irrelevance for the forseeable future.

His responsibility is to the millions who voted LibDem not to the millions who voted Tory. I hope he bears that in mind.

His responsibility is not to those who voted labour either.

 

[Rolfe]

Again, I'm responding to Rolfe's point about people not being happy if Clegg goes with Brown.

Mmmm, who shouts loudest though? I suspect the outrage of those English Tories who see all the seats they won would be pretty vocal if we ended up with a "progressive alliance". Pointing out that said alliance had a majority of the popular vote isn't going to mollify them, considering that they're anti-PR anyway.

But it is a victory under our electoral system.

This is my point, really. We're governed by votes in the House of Commons, which goes by seats under FPTP, not PR. This is all about Commons arithmetic.

A progressive alliance, with everybody on board for UK-wide votes, would be able to get such legislation through, though even that is likely to annoy the English nationalists a lot. However, what about English-only legislation? It's going to lose 9 votes straight off, because SNP and PC will abstain. If it goes through, then the English nationalists will be outraged. If it doesn't, you've got a government unable to get a substantial part of its legislation through.

Then we have those items of legislation which mainly affect England, but which have subsidiary clauses also affecting Scotland and Wales, or they affect funding outcomes for Scotland and Wales. The nationalists will vote on these, and again the English nationalists will be pretty unhappy.

This is not a recipe for a viable government in Westminster.

Rolfe.

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

His responsibility is not to those who voted labour either.

I agree. Don't think I suggested it ever was. However if Labour are offering a move to PR - something that will mean the LibDems actually become a significant party and that the views of their voters will count for something - then that should be what he goes for.

If Cameron was offering that then Clegg would have a reason to support him. He isn't.

Clegg has to get the PR referendum now or he'll never get it. If he gives in on that because of pressure from outside he'll be a dead duck.

 

[Rolfe]

Cue the dead duck.

This is my car after returning from the count on Friday morning. I'd unknowingly driven from about Lockerbie with a mallard embedded in the front grille.

Rolfe.

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

Mmmm, who shouts loudest though? I suspect the outrage of those English Tories who see all the seats they won would be pretty vocal if we ended up with a "progressive alliance". Pointing out that said alliance had a majority of the popular vote isn't going to mollify them, considering that they're anti-PR anyway.




This is my point, really. We're governed by votes in the House of Commons, which goes by seats under FPTP, not PR. This is all about Commons arithmetic.

A progressive alliance, with everybody on board for UK-wide votes, would be able to get such legislation through, though even that is likely to annoy the English nationalists a lot. However, what about English-only legislation? It's going to lose 9 votes straight off, because SNP and PC will abstain. If it goes through, then the English nationalists will be outraged. If it doesn't, you've got a government unable to get a substantial part of its legislation through.

Then we have those items of legislation which mainly affect England, but which have subsidiary clauses also affecting Scotland and Wales, or they affect funding outcomes for Scotland and Wales. The nationalists will vote on these, and again the English nationalists will be pretty unhappy.

This is not a recipe for a viable government in Westminster.

Rolfe.

If I was being flippant I would brand this as NCFP ... Not Clegg's Flipping Problem.

There seems to be a received wisdom that somehow simply because the Tories got more seats than Labour that the Lib Dems have an obligation to back them up. I don't agree. I hope Clegg doesn't too. If the Tories are so keen to be in power then all they have to do is move on the electoral reform issue and they can have it with my blessing!

 

[Rolfe]

That wasn't so much an argument for Clegg being obliged to back up Cameron, but for the inadvisability of him entering a progressive alliance with all the other parties.

If he can't come to an agreement with Cameron, then so be it. Let Cameron try to form a minority government.

By the way, why is it PR that's the main demand? I thought the LibDems also wanted a federal Britain. Why isn't he asking for that, too?

Rolfe.

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

That wasn't so much an argument for Clegg being obliged to back up Cameron, but for the inadvisability of him entering a progressive alliance with all the other parties.

If he can't come to an agreement with Cameron, then so be it. Let Cameron try to form a minority government.

By the way, why is it PR that's the main demand? I thought the LibDems also wanted a federal Britain. Why isn't he asking for that, too?

Rolfe.

I don't know what he is asking for or whether PR is his main demand, I certainly hope it is though. If he gets PR he gains a huge amount of influence for the Lib Dems and a true chance that their could be a Lib Dem government or at least a government in which Lib Dem policies could be enacted. A federal Britain could presumably follow from that if that's what they want.

If he doesn't get PR he could want free chocolate for everyone and sexual favours from the supermodel/film star of your choice and it wouldn't matter one jot because his party would be an irrelevance.

As for the question of joining a progressive alliance, if he gets PR out of it then its probably a worthwhile exchange no matter how unpopular it makes him or his party in the short term. He could lose half his vote and still end up with more seats!

 

[Rolfe]

Fair enough.

Suppose he can't get that concession, though? If he doesn't get it now, when might he get it? Would it advantage him in any way to reject the possibility of coalition on that ground?

To my mind the arithmetic of the suggestion in the OP doesn't add up. It's just been repeated on the TV and it still doesn't add up. Labour, LibDem, SNP, PC, however many Irish members and a Green - herding cats doesn't begin to describe it. But what nobody has mentioned is the effect of such arithmetic on domestic English legislation. I don't think it's a runner.

So, Clegg can go for the coalition and a stable government, and see how much he can get out of it, or he can let Cameron form a minority government, in my opinion. Would the latter be a good thing for the country, given the financial situation? What should Clegg do?

Rolfe.

 

[MarkCorrigan]

Fair enough.

Suppose he can't get that concession, though? If he doesn't get it now, when might he get it? Would it advantage him in any way to reject the possibility of coalition on that ground?

To my mind the arithmetic of the suggestion in the OP doesn't add up. It's just been repeated on the TV and it still doesn't add up. Labour, LibDem, SNP, PC, however many Irish members and a Green - herding cats doesn't begin to describe it. But what nobody has mentioned is the effect of such arithmetic on domestic English legislation. I don't think it's a runner.

So, Clegg can go for the coalition and a stable government, and see how much he can get out of it, or he can let Cameron form a minority government, in my opinion. Would the latter be a good thing for the country, given the financial situation? What should Clegg do?

Rolfe.

Clegg should reject the Tories because on a basic level they aren't compatable parties. At least with the SNP, PC and Greens all the parties in the coalition would be at least somewhat left wing, progressive etc.

With the Tories they have practically nothing.

 

[Last of the Fraggles]

Fair enough.

Suppose he can't get that concession, though? If he doesn't get it now, when might he get it? Would it advantage him in any way to reject the possibility of coalition on that ground?

To my mind the arithmetic of the suggestion in the OP doesn't add up. It's just been repeated on the TV and it still doesn't add up. Labour, LibDem, SNP, PC, however many Irish members and a Green - herding cats doesn't begin to describe it. But what nobody has mentioned is the effect of such arithmetic on domestic English legislation. I don't think it's a runner.

So, Clegg can go for the coalition and a stable government, and see how much he can get out of it, or he can let Cameron form a minority government, in my opinion. Would the latter be a good thing for the country, given the financial situation? What should Clegg do?

Rolfe.

It seems that Labour have already offered a referendum on PR so I'd be happy enough for him to form an 'everyone but the Tories' coalition. Get the referendum out of the way as quickly as possible and push for a quick election after that.

I don't particularly think the domestic English thing is an issue anymore than it was last week.

 

[Reginald]

I think now that far form coming across as principled, Clegg is coming over as being naive.(Is it just me or does his face get really irritating really quickly?)

I'd much rather now (from a centre/left standpoint) he just stopped and let Cameron just run with a minority Government. In a short while the labour party will have moved onwards and upwards and will thank him for his lack of interest. The lib/dems are already deeply damaged for even entertaining this deal.

I'm hoping that Ashdown will feel more free to discuss this publicly at a later date. He has been a politician I have always had the highest regard for.

 

[Delscottio]

I think now that far form coming across as principled, Clegg is coming over as being naive.(Is it just me or does his face get really irritating really quickly?)

Go with the Tories without electoral reform and it'll look grubby more than naive. In fact what Rolfe was saying last week about the Lib Dems may be very accurate (think it was Rolfe about hypocrisy etc - apologies if not!)

I'd much rather now (from a centre/left standpoint) he just stopped and let Cameron just run with a minority Government. In a short while the labour party will have moved onwards and upwards and will thank him for his lack of interest. The lib/dems are already deeply damaged for even entertaining this deal.

I agree with this, although I don't think any damage has been done yet, as they have the get out of looking for PR and being knocked back.