Why haven't we heard from North Korea lately?

[Delvo]

Oh, there they are.

https://in.reuters.com/article/us-n...tal-ballistic-missile-at-parade-idUSKBN26V01K

Gigantic new ICBMs got shown off at a parade... going by size, the kind that the USA, UK, France, USSR/Russia, and China have has sitting & waiting to go around the world at each other for decades.

I don't believe it's real. When these folks have a new missile working, they throw a few tests into the ocean. And there were several on parade, and you don't do production on that scale with new technology that hasn't been tested. You might also notice that the last few years without new missile tests have also been without nuclear tests. The program seems to have had some setbacks. Driving some empty mock-ups around is the kind of thing that country would do in response to that situation.

But if it is real, it also still doesn't mean they can deliver nukes over here with it yet; it just means they're a big step closer.

For anybody thinking this isn't news because they already could nuke us a few years ago: the claim that they "have nuclear weapons" was just the hyperbole that kept getting passed around for a while after they made a couple of nuclear explosions. But there are two more challenges after that point before you really have nuclear weapons. For that, they would have needed to make the explosive devices small enough and a missile with enough payload & range. We knew their biggest missile before now wasn't enough even for a well-miniaturized nuclear bomb or to reach us here, and we knew that when you're first learning to make nuclear explosions your first couple of tests are not miniaturized. So what they're announcing with this parade is that they have solved one side of that challenge.

 

[Matthew Ellard]

...and here it is!

It looks real, however a BBC science bloke said it looks like a multiple warhead ICBM and the North Koreans didn't really have the technology for re-entry and guidance worked out for a single warhead, let alone multiple warheads. Without any testing they won't get much further.

The same BBC science person said the real danger was from short range missile nukes. North Korea might whump South Korea and hope the USA would not return the favour, but if North Korea launched against the USA it would definitely get whumped back.

I do like the launch wheeled vehicle carrying the missile. It looks like something from the original Thunderbirds TV show.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

To be fair, a nuclear attack by North Korea would be the biggest October Surprise EVER!

 

[Myriad]

I do like the launch wheeled vehicle carrying the missile. It looks like something from the original Thunderbirds TV show.

A twenty-two wheeler!* It looks like it's really good at driving in a straight line.


*assuming it has the same number of wheels on the other side, which might not be a safe assumption in this context.

 

[timhau]

A twenty-two wheeler!* It looks like it's really good at driving in a straight line.


*assuming it has the same number of wheels on the other side, which might not be a safe assumption in this context.

I bet it does, because it is likely the only delivery platform available for whatever warheads thd big fat missile may contain.

If they have enough gas, that is.

 

[Myriad]

I bet it does, because it is likely the only delivery platform available for whatever warheads thd big fat missile may contain.

If they have enough gas, that is.

Well, since it looks like those trucks have a turning radius of approximately North Korea, it's important to establish whether or not they're currently facing toward South Korea, and whether or not there are any trees or large rocks in their way.

 

[timhau]

Nonsense. In North Korea, the trucks turn you.

 

[Trebuchet]

Properly designed, with each wheel indepently powered and steered, vehicles like that can turn pretty much in their own length.

 

[The Don]

Properly designed, with each wheel indepently powered and steered, vehicles like that can turn pretty much in their own length.

It's much more important to mock North Korea than it is to actually examine any facts.

 

[The Atheist]

A twenty-two wheeler!* It looks like it's really good at driving in a straight line.

*assuming it has the same number of wheels on the other side, which might not be a safe assumption in this context.

It does have the same number of wheels on the other side.

They need all the wheels to cover up the feet of the guys carrying the cardboard model. They're good mates with Iran and use the same modelling kits.

 

[Delvo]

It's much more important to mock North Korea than it is to actually examine any facts.

It has been interesting watching people react to NK's nuclear missile aspirations over the years.

Several years ago, when they first started saying they were going to do it and were getting closer, people acted like the fact that they couldn't do it yet meant they'd never be able to do it. Somebody right here even posted a short video or animated GIF of some people trying to light firecrackers and having some kind of accident with them. I said it should be taken seriously because technology keeps advancing in the hands of people who keep trying.

Over the next few years, whenever NK launched a test rocket into the ocean, people acted like it was a joke again because obviously the tests had failed if they fell into the ocean (nevermind the fact that it must be flying in the first place to get out there or the fact that the ocean makes a good harmless target for testing). I said it should be taken seriously because technology keeps advancing in the hands of people who keep trying and theirs showed signs of improvement.

Then when NK managed to make a couple of nuclear explosions, the hyperbole suddenly reversed to "OMG they could totally nuke us any second now!" for no reason and I ended up with people asking what I meant when I said they didn't have nuclear weapons yet and couldn't nuke us yet. Then, when they didn't nuke us, in the first few weeks after that, it went back to "LOL they're such pitiful people, they can't do anything", so saying "it should be taken seriously because technology keeps advancing in the hands of people who keep trying and theirs shows signs of improvement" was suddenly back to being the most extremely "scared" position.

MAD worked with the USSR and works with Russia and China because they've always been ruled by sane enough, rational enough people, who were at least reliable in their self-serving-ness and could be reasoned with, even if only adversarially. NK is a cult and America's jokers are acting like cults have never gone suicidal before, or even called a superior enemy's bluff. MAD can't be relied on with a madman.

 

[Meadmaker]

It looks real, however a BBC science bloke said it looks like a multiple warhead ICBM and the North Koreans didn't really have the technology for re-entry and guidance worked out for a single warhead, let alone multiple warheads. Without any testing they won't get much further.

I don't want to minimize the difficulty of the task, but rocket science just isn't as hard as it used to be. The "science" part of delivering a missile to a US target is very well understood. There aren't any secrets. The engineering is still a bit tricky. Making something that can steer a rocket without blowing up isn't a high school project, but I'm pretty sure I could do it if I had the budget, and I'm just a guy with a master's degree.

I can't imagine what they think is so hard about guiding a missile toward a target. When Von Braun did it in 1944, that was impressive. Today, it's pretty well known how that stuff works.

 

[Trebuchet]

And they don't need to have much, or any, precision targeting to achieve the desired effect.

 

[The Atheist]

MAD can't be relied on with a madman.

It's not even relevant, because NK can't destroy anything beyond one major strike and I think it's ridiculously unlikely they have the delivery system for an ICBM.

I can't imagine what they think is so hard about guiding a missile toward a target. When Von Braun did it in 1944, that was impressive. Today, it's pretty well known how that stuff works.

You're under-selling the difficulty by an exponential factor.

We have a team of thousands of engineers working on Rocket Labs, and they still can't do better than 50/50, and that's just putting it into orbit.

Into orbit, re-entry, then targeting is way more than NK could manage. How many fails did SpaceX have before getting it right?

 

[Meadmaker]

It's not even relevant, because NK can't destroy anything beyond one major strike and I think it's ridiculously unlikely they have the delivery system for an ICBM.



You're under-selling the difficulty by an exponential factor.

We have a team of thousands of engineers working on Rocket Labs, and they still can't do better than 50/50, and that's just putting it into orbit.

Into orbit, re-entry, then targeting is way more than NK could manage. How many fails did SpaceX have before getting it right?

The hard part is into orbit. It turns out that that much rocket fuel creates a lot of pressure and things have a tendency to explode at the slightest provocation.

Targeting? Pretty simple stuff. It used to be hard, but, frankly, it no longer is. Modern computers and sensors really do make the work a lot easier.

Docking in space is still hard, because you have to get the speed and location exactly right. Trying to hit the docking zone of an orbiting target with a speed difference of no more than a couple of meters per second is kind of hard. If your target is San Francisco with a nuke, your tolerances are a lot wider.

It's still not a simple task, but it isn't the kind of high tech amazing stuff that it was in the old days of our youth. If you can make a stable rocket that won't blow up, you can get the nukes it's carrying to where they need to go.

 

[Trebuchet]

Properly designed, with each wheel indepently powered and steered, vehicles like that can turn pretty much in their own length.

Similar many-wheeled vehicle turning at about 15 seconds in this video.

 

[Mader Levap]

NK is a cult and America's jokers are acting like cults have never gone suicidal before, or even called a superior enemy's bluff. MAD can't be relied on with a madman.

This is where you are mistaken. North Korea's leadership and Kim himself are not madmen, though they sure like to pretend to be this kind of persona.

Don't worry, you aren't only one that fell for it.

Don't believe it? If they were really that crazy and unhinged, whole North vs South Korea thing would be resolved in this or other way long ago.
During last few decades there were various incidents, shootings and provocations - that somehow never escalated in all-out war. That NK is not one big radioactive hole right now is all proof we need to know that North Korean leadership is sane.

 

[dudalb]

This is where you are mistaken. North Korea's leadership and Kim himself are not madmen, though they sure like to pretend to be this kind of persona.

Don't worry, you aren't only one that fell for it.

Don't believe it? If they were really that crazy and unhinged, whole North vs South Korea thing would be resolved in this or other way long ago.
During last few decades there were various incidents, shootings and provocations - that somehow never escalated in all-out war. That NK is not one big radioactive hole right now is all proof we need to know that North Korean leadership is sane.

Which does not make them any less cruel,viscouse and evil.

 

[Mader Levap]

Which does not make them any less cruel,viscouse and evil.

Of course. I said they are sane, not okay.

 

[timhau]

I've never believed any of the Kims or the NK top brass to be mad, but the entire system that grants them their cushy lifestyle is mad. I remember reading about the problems ordinary-citizen-level NK defectors face in the South, and they include things like near-complete lack of initiative (because their life in the North was pretty much pre-programmed by someone else - up until defection) and a similar lack of trustworthiness (because they are used to a system where punishments are severe but arbitrary, which breaks the causal link between your everyday actions and their consequences). It's not exactly a system that promotes sanity at the lower levels.

Which does not make them any less cruel,viscouse and evil.

I think Kim III is way too thick to have any sort of viscosity.