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Why care about extinction?

There are plenty of reasons why bacteria won't continue to spread at that rate. You haven't provided a single reason why we can't extrapolate a few hundred years after the trends I posted.

let's have a look at what you said...

The predictions even at the lowest predict an increase of over 2 degrees celcius over the next 90 years. 5 degrees celcius in the CCSR/NIES model. That's over 40 degrees in about 90 years. If it continues at that increasing rate (which it looks like it will based on all of the models) then we will absolutely be in a Venus situation within less than a million years. Extrapolate this model and extend it at the current rate 500 years and you've got a 200 degree increase of overall temperature for the planet. 400 degrees in 1000 years. And so on. So basically I was being very very conservative in saying it could be a million years before it happens. Based on the best climate models, if extrapolated to a few thousand years, we'll be another Venus.

you're using the beginnings of what could be exponential growth over a 100year time frame to extrapolate the temperature in 1000 years. Climate models don't work like that. If they did the earth would end up hotter than the sun :rolleyes:

by your reasoning,

n=1,2,3
n1 is the temperature increase in 500 years, n2 in 1000 years
and temperature increase at n1 is 200 degrees

then you can model the expansion by
200x2n-1
so in 10,000years the temperature increase will be 102,400 degrees C
in 20,000years the temperature increase will be 104,857,600 degrees C
in 30,000years the temperature increase will be 107,374,182,400 degrees C

Now given that the inner core of the sun is only 15,000,000 degrees C, by your model we can expect the earth to become hotter than the sun in about 18,000 years.....

To repeat - this is what happens with exponential growth.
 
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let's have a look at what you said...



you're using the beginnings of what could be exponential growth over a 100year time frame to extrapolate the temperature in 1000 years. Climate models don't work like that. If they did the earth would end up hotter than the sun :rolleyes:

Using the climate trends for 100 to extrapolate temperature in 1000 years isn't that crazy. If current trends continue, there's really nothing that would prevent it from going that far.
 
No, I showed the current trends and extended them over a a few times more. There's no valid reason for them not to be extended that far.

I can appreciate extrapolating a few degrees into the near future. But you're claiming that Earth will practically become Venus in terms of its climate within due time. Earth never became Venus even when all of the CO2 was in the atmosphere several billion years ago! Again, support this claim with reason (other than 'there's no reason to take this graph to the extreme') or accept that you've got nothing.

The lifespan is relevant because you're assuming they all live long enough to be able to populate the world.

Just quoting this for posterity. The very point behind the analogy (which again was lost on you) was this very thing.

The only "woo" here is you. Your tactics remind me of creationists. Arguing that there's no rational reason to prevent extinction? Oh yes, How critical...:rolleyes:

Strawman. I never said there was no rational reason to prevent extinction. I said that in many cases, the rationality used for some species does not exist, and instead it becomes an emotional argument. This is significant, as species such as pandas and whales are used as poster-children for the 'save our planet' cause, when these species don't carry the same weight of rationality as more key species do.

The very fact you need to misrepresent my argument demonstrates your dishonesty in debate.

So? Subjective things can't be rationalized? This doesn't make one bit of sense.

Maybe not to you.

If I argue 'I want to save this painting from the fire because it is beautiful', and another says 'I want to throw this painting into the fire because it is ugly', both are using subjective reasoning in support of their decisions. The thing is, neither reason can be demonstrated as factual as it relies on the subjective opinions.

What definition of "Subjective" are you using? Provide a link. I can't find a single definition of the word that fits the way you're using it.

It's not a complicated definition; subjective, as in 'Proceeding from or taking place in a person's mind rather than the external world' (http://www.answers.com/topic/subjective). Aesthetics is a subjective opinion.

This is irrelevant. The argument is whether or not you have the right to take away what I find beautiful. I.E. wildlife. and whether or not my and many others admiration of it can be a reason to keep it. Which it can.

Of course. And I never suggested otherwise. This is not rational logic, but rather emotional justification.

Here's the difference; it is logical to say if I kill an animal, you will be sad, therefore if I do not wish you to be sad I should not kill the animal. There is an objective and reasonable outcome to which I can anticipate the ramifications of my decision. This becomes invalid if I don't care whether you're sad or not.

Yet simply saying animals should not be killed as I will be sad is not a logical rationalisation, but an emotional one. It falls short of being a rational and objective argument.

In the end emotional pleas only take on weight if the opinion of the masses is taken into account.

The problem here, Dustin, is that you're so desperate to argue a case you'll rage against any and all counter arguments. Personally, I also don't want to see species go extinct. However, if I try to use faulty logic and bad reasoning in support of this belief, my desire will not be taken seriously. Yet if I admit that it is an emotional plea based on my aesthetics, and can convince others to have that same emotional foundation, then I have a chance at promoting changes in opinion. In the end it's a battle of values anyway; the emotional ties individuals have to economy versus the emotional ties individuals have for biodiversity.

In other words, you're shooting yourself in the foot with bad rationalisation and ignorant arguments. Rather than take your persuasion seriously people will see only folly in your views and discredit them.

Could be many. Hasty generalization in particular. You're taking a tiny tiny sample of planets and then using that as evidence other planets won't have oxygen since those don't.

Strawman. I never said anything about lacking oxygen. A different ratio of oxygen to other gases would be incompatible with life (oh god why am I arguing this with you...)

So if a planet had a gravity difference of 5% more and an oxygen ratio difference of 30% more, we could not survive on it?

Not only is your logic faulty, so are your facts.

Here's a practical way of demonstrating a variation in oxygen levels; try climbing to several thousand metres above sea level. The difference in oxygen concentration is but a few percent less. See how you feel. Then, to be real daring, go where there is an oxygen difference of more than 30%. At this point I'd love to see it.

Good grief, You're the one arguing from ignorance here. My argument was simply that we should protect humpbacks because we don't know what effect their extinction would have on oceanic ecosystems.

This has to be one of the most tragic statements of the year.

WHAT EVIDENCE? The "Lack of" evidence? Please tell me you're not claiming that the "lack of" evidence humpbacks extinction will negatively affect the ecosystems is evidence it won't....

No. It's a non-claim. If you want to claim that they will, you need evidence.


Well done. You might learn a few manners yet.

Athon
 
Using the climate trends for 100 to extrapolate temperature in 1000 years isn't that crazy. If current trends continue, there's really nothing that would prevent it from going that far.

how can you be confident in a model that predicts we end up hotter than the inner core of the sun in 18,000years? And hotter than the outer core in 6,000years?
 
There are plenty of reasons why bacteria won't continue to spread at that rate. You haven't provided a single reason why we can't extrapolate a few hundred years after the trends I posted.

For one, climate models don't work that way. The predictive power is relatively weak, quickly falling off in accuracy after a small amount of time.

Secondly, even when the majority of the earth's carbon dioxide and water vapour was in the atmosphere, there was no runaway greenhouse effect.

Thirdly, you're assuming that the graph suggests that CO2 levels will continue to increase forever. If you're claiming a runaway greenhouse effect, at what concentration would CO2 need to be in order for this to occur? Is it more or less than the reserves of fossil fuels we have access to with current technology?

Athon
 
Because I would not extrapolate it that far.

let's have a look

So basically I was being very very conservative in saying it could be a million years before it happens. Based on the best climate models, if extrapolated to a few thousand years, we'll be another Venus.

based on the "best climate models" [ie a graph you've found on the internet showing projected co2 rise in the 21st century] extrapolated to a few thousand years we reach the outer surface temperature of the sun.

how do you know that you can extrapolate to even 1000 years given that the model gives such ludicrous predictions?

Do you really think that our current best climate models consist of a graph plotting co2 against time?
 
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andyandy said:
how can you be confident in a model that predicts we end up hotter than the inner core of the sun in 18,000years? And hotter than the outer core in 6,000years?
Because I would not extrapolate it that far.

I don't think I've ever laughed so hard. Classic!

Athon
 
freaking hippies. It is too cold outside right now! Bring on the global warming!!!! It is better for most species for the earth to be warmer than it is now.
 
how can you be confident in a model that predicts we end up hotter than the inner core of the sun in 18,000years? And hotter than the outer core in 6,000years?

People like dustin are confident in anything that promotes their treehugging end of times agenda. Btw its not the 1st world countries that need to have their emissions changed anyways they go above and beyond resonable emissions and waste alot of money doing so. It is those pesky developing countries these mule headed activists need to be worried about if they really believe the junk coming out of their mouths.

As for extinctions, ya it sucks for the species but it doesn't mean it is going to be detrimental to us. How was the recent extinction of the Dodo Bird detrimental to our survival? They did not even taste good it seems!

Where do you draw the line? We cannot and should not save all the species out there it would simply cost way to much and waste too much of our time. Why not center that ferver in saving other human beings in 3rd world countries and educating them to the point they can become self reliant.
 
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I can appreciate extrapolating a few degrees into the near future. But you're claiming that Earth will practically become Venus in terms of its climate within due time. Earth never became Venus even when all of the CO2 was in the atmosphere several billion years ago! Again, support this claim with reason (other than 'there's no reason to take this graph to the extreme') or accept that you've got nothing.

It's a rough estimate.


I never said there was no rational reason to prevent extinction. I said that in many cases, the rationality used for some species does not exist, and instead it becomes an emotional argument.

Which can be very rational.

This is significant, as species such as pandas and whales are used as poster-children for the 'save our planet' cause, when these species don't carry the same weight of rationality as more key species do.

People like whales and panda's.

The very fact you need to misrepresent my argument demonstrates your dishonesty in debate.

You're moving the goal post.


If I argue 'I want to save this painting from the fire because it is beautiful', and another says 'I want to throw this painting into the fire because it is ugly', both are using subjective reasoning in support of their decisions. The thing is, neither reason can be demonstrated as factual as it relies on the subjective opinions.

Oversimplification
  1. It Depends on who owns the painting.
  2. An argument can be made that preservation is better than destruction.

It's not a complicated definition; subjective, as in 'Proceeding from or taking place in a person's mind rather than the external world' (http://www.answers.com/topic/subjective). Aesthetics is a subjective opinion.

So based on your definition of "subjective" which means 'taking place in a person's mind rather than the external world' would you argue that your thoughts aren't rational since they take place inside of your mind and not in the external world?

Here's the difference; it is logical to say if I kill an animal, you will be sad, therefore if I do not wish you to be sad I should not kill the animal. There is an objective and reasonable outcome to which I can anticipate the ramifications of my decision. This becomes invalid if I don't care whether you're sad or not.

I would never argue that an individual animal should not be killed because it would make me sad.

Yet simply saying animals should not be killed as I will be sad is not a logical rationalisation, but an emotional one. It falls short of being a rational and objective argument.

That's an oversimplification of my argument. My argument was that future generations should be able to experience the wildlife that we can experience and we don't have the right to prevent them from doing that. That's a rational argument.

The problem here, Dustin, is that you're so desperate to argue a case you'll rage against any and all counter arguments. Personally, I also don't want to see species go extinct. However, if I try to use faulty logic and bad reasoning in support of this belief, my desire will not be taken seriously. Yet if I admit that it is an emotional plea based on my aesthetics, and can convince others to have that same emotional foundation, then I have a chance at promoting changes in opinion. In the end it's a battle of values anyway; the emotional ties individuals have to economy versus the emotional ties individuals have for biodiversity.

You're using your skewed philosophy to come to the conclusion that arguments for future generations to be able to experience wildlife aren't "rational", which they are. Based on the definition of "rational".


In other words, you're shooting yourself in the foot with bad rationalisation and ignorant arguments. Rather than take your persuasion seriously people will see only folly in your views and discredit them.

Define "Rational".

Strawman. I never said anything about lacking oxygen. A different ratio of oxygen to other gases would be incompatible with life (oh god why am I arguing this with you...)

Humans can easily survive in environments with a bit less oxygen or a bit more oxygen. Stop making things up.

Here's a practical way of demonstrating a variation in oxygen levels; try climbing to several thousand metres above sea level. The difference in oxygen concentration is but a few percent less. See how you feel. Then, to be real daring, go where there is an oxygen difference of more than 30%. At this point I'd love to see it.

Earths atmosphere is about 21% oxygen so 30% less isn't possible. However 30% more oxygen would be around 50% which is not toxic. Early spacecrafts and spacesuits actually had 100% oxygen in them.

So taking your helmet off on a planet with 50% oxygen or even 60% oxygen would not be harmful unless the other % of gas was deadly.

No. It's a non-claim. If you want to claim that they will, you need evidence.

I have no proof they will or won't. This is a reason in itself not to cause them to go extinct. It's called PRECAUTION!
 
For one, climate models don't work that way. The predictive power is relatively weak, quickly falling off in accuracy after a small amount of time.

Like 90 years? :rolleyes:

Secondly, even when the majority of the earth's carbon dioxide and water vapour was in the atmosphere, there was no runaway greenhouse effect.

When did this happen?

Thirdly, you're assuming that the graph suggests that CO2 levels will continue to increase forever. If you're claiming a runaway greenhouse effect, at what concentration would CO2 need to be in order for this to occur? Is it more or less than the reserves of fossil fuels we have access to with current technology?

Athon

I never made that assumption.
 
freaking hippies. It is too cold outside right now! Bring on the global warming!!!! It is better for most species for the earth to be warmer than it is now.


Just the insect species...

If the world continues to warm, the sea levels will rise, many countries will flood, millions will die.

People like dustin are confident in anything that promotes their treehugging end of times agenda.

I don't hug trees. If your response to anyone who cares about the planet is to call them a "Tree hugger" then you truly are ignorant.


Btw its not the 1st world countries that need to have their emissions changed anyways they go above and beyond resonable emissions and waste alot of money doing so.

1st world countries are the top emitters of greenhouse gases. They ABSOLUTELY need to change. If you're trying to weigh "money" against the planet then again, you truly are ignorant.


It is those pesky developing countries these mule headed activists need to be worried about if they really believe the junk coming out of their mouths.

Wrong.

_40415961_co2_emissions2_gra416.gif

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3143798.stm


As for extinctions, ya it sucks for the species but it doesn't mean it is going to be detrimental to us. How was the recent extinction of the Dodo Bird detrimental to our survival?

Please read my first post. Stop making ignorant comments until you actually read this thread.
 
I bow out. I've made myself look like an idiot for even trying to discuss things with you, Dustin. I think with this quote:

Dustin said:
Earths atmosphere is about 21% oxygen so 30% less isn't possible. However 30% more oxygen would be around 50% which is not toxic. Early spacecrafts and spacesuits actually had 100% oxygen in them.

So taking your helmet off on a planet with 50% oxygen or even 60% oxygen would not be harmful unless the other % of gas was deadly.

I realise you are simply incapable of debating this on any level. The maths in this is infantile, the science just plain wrong, your definitions are personal to you only, and your logic is non existent. You're playing your own game of soldiers and thinking you're winning.

Well, have fun. I don't think anybody's going to learn anything new in this thread from either you or me.

Athon
 
I bow out. I've made myself look like an idiot for even trying to discuss things with you, Dustin. I think with this quote:



I realise you are simply incapable of debating this on any level. The maths in this is infantile, the science just plain wrong, your definitions are personal to you only, and your logic is non existent. You're playing your own game of soldiers and thinking you're winning.

Well, have fun. I don't think anybody's going to learn anything new in this thread from either you or me.

Athon

Earths atmosphere is about 21% oxygen so 30% less isn't possible. However 30% more oxygen would be around 50% which is not toxic. Early spacecrafts and spacesuits actually had 100% oxygen in them.

(I provided a link)

So taking your helmet off on a planet with 50% oxygen or even 60% oxygen would not be harmful unless the other % of gas was deadly. Thus making your previous assertions baseless and absurd.

You've been proven wrong and your absurd ignorant comments have been shown to be what they are. Nothing about my quote was incorrect. You're simply too cowardly and arrogant to admit you're wrong. Now that you've been refuted, you're running away.

Is that your tail I see between your legs?

:dl:
 
Controlling Global Climate

An interesting approach.

The Debate over Pollution Trading

Might there still be a way to draw developing countries into a global agreement to reduce greenhouse emissions? One approach – pollution trading – has been endorsed by many economists and energetically promoted by U.S. negotiators. This essay seeks to clarify the economic and moral issues raised by this approach, and then to recommend an alternative strategy to be pursued in future negotiations with the developing world.
 
What ignorant comments have I made? Give examples. Be specific.

Unless you can, don't imply I have. Stop being a weaselly coward.

Thanks.

What's cowardly about noting that it's ironic that you castigate others for making ignorant posts while seemingly basking in your own ignorance?


The predictions even at the lowest predict an increase of over 2 degrees celcius over the next 90 years. 5 degrees celcius in the CCSR/NIES model. That's over 40 degrees in about 90 years. If it continues at that increasing rate (which it looks like it will based on all of the models) then we will absolutely be in a Venus situation within less than a million years. Extrapolate this model and extend it at the current rate 500 years and you've got a 200 degree increase of overall temperature for the planet. 400 degrees in 1000 years. And so on. So basically I was being very very conservative in saying it could be a million years before it happens. Based on the best climate models, if extrapolated to a few thousand years, we'll be another Venus.


This shows ignorance of basic maths, basic modelling and basic climate science. We covered this already. Your confusing a very basic co2 vs time graph with "best climate models" and using reasoning that should lead us to expect that the earth will be the temperature of the outer core of the sun within a few thousand years.
 
You've been proven wrong and your absurd ignorant comments have been shown to be what they are. You're simply too cowardly and arrogant to admit you're wrong.


i'm sure that anyone reading this thread will reach their own conclusions about who has been making absurd and ignorant comments, and who is too cowardly and arrogant to admit that they're wrong.....
 
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