Why a 2 degree C temperature rise is a big deal

[macdoc]

Just because you lack understanding of the climate physics does not mean others do....

None of this helps your case any more than stupid posts like this one help mine.

Do you know what a stall continental high is and an Arctic dipole???
If you did, you would not think it supported your case one iota and it just illustrates Watts dishonesty.

Only North America Experienced Cooler than Average Temps in 2009by Brian Merchant, Brooklyn, New York on 12. 8.09

Perhaps down under keeps you out of those knowledge loops.

YOu cannot square transient internal stalled high pressure zones in a "no sunlight period" ( it happened in Siberia last year where records were set ) with the continual loss going on above them
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html

The low continental temps are due to stalled high pressure zones....and yes the melting Arctic has contributed to that occurring more often.
Does not change a thing as far as net energy budget. Just as El Nino is a warm pooling in the ocean, these are "cold pools" in the atmosphere. Neither are energy budget issues.


••••
Morakat did not stall over Taiwan - you conveniently neglect time. ( Hell Ivan dumped 10' on Central America but it took 6 days )

A warming planet may not mean more frequent rain - but rather more intense rain...in fact the models needed adjusting as the OBSERVED intensity ( as we just saw in England ) exceeded the expected increase.
Wasn't this just prescient written a few months before the extreme event in UK.

Intensity of extreme rainfall in the UK may increase

9 March 2009

Extreme rainfall - the type that only occurs once every decade or so - is likely to become more intense across the UK, according to new research.

http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/news/story.aspx?id=353

http://www.iop.org/EJ/abstract/1748-9326/4/3/035009

Your own continent shows the same pattern over time. Increase in the North West...

and other regions are seeing the intensity and this I am sure, far more than atmosphere transients and sealevel will get AGW in people's face

Just days before the meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in Bangkok, the Geneva-based organisation's vice-chair Prof. Mohan Munasinghe had told IPS in an interview: "No one takes it (climate change) seriously because it is something that doesn't happen, today or tomorrow."
But the deluge on May 3 seemed to be like a portent of things to come. Most of the business areas in the sea-facing capital were flooded, traffic came to a standstill and several deaths occurred, including that of a woman who vanished down an unprotected storm-water drain. The 'high intensity' rains continued through Friday and Saturday.

"High intensity rain is when rain that should happen over a period of time or many days comes down on one day and that's what happened on Thursday," noted Kusum Athukorala, a water resources specialist.

"This is the impact of climate change. But blame should fall on bad governance and politicians who have allowed unauthorised constructions and encroachment on wetlands, swamps, and river,'' Athukorala, who has been battling with local politicians for years over these issues, said.

What happened in Colombo had an eerie similarity, to the floods that hit the Indian port city of Mumbai in July 2005 that caused hundreds of deaths. Experts then concluded that the carrying capacity of that metropolis had been seriously affected by rampant unauthorised construction that choked waterways and killed protective vegetation.

Importantly the Mumbai floods were attributed by top scientists, including the chairman of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, to climate change. They then predicted that other Asian port cities could become similarly vulnerable unless drastic steps were urgently taken.

http://www.asiawaterwire.net/node/530

and this is observation.....not projection

Increasing Trend of Extreme Rain Events Over India in a Warming Environment
B. N. Goswami,1* V. Venugopal,2 D. Sengupta,2 M. S. Madhusoodanan,2 Prince K. Xavier2
Against a backdrop of rising global surface temperature, the stability of the Indian monsoon rainfall over the past century has been a puzzle. By using a daily rainfall data set, we show (i) significant rising trends in the frequency and the magnitude of extreme rain events and (ii) a significant decreasing trend in the frequency of moderate events over central India during the monsoon seasons from 1951 to 2000. The seasonal mean rainfall does not show a significant trend, because the contribution from increasing heavy events is offset by decreasing moderate events. A substantial increase in hazards related to heavy rain is expected over central India in the future.
1 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Doctor Homi Bhabha Road, Pashan, Pune 411 008, India.
2 Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Karnataka 560 012, India.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/314/5804/1442


Civil engineering, hydrology all growth industries - big time

 

[a_unique_person]

Science is done with models. Live with it or go join the Amish.

 

[macdoc]

Originally Posted by BenBurch
Science is done with models. Live with it or go join the Amish.

slight caveat

Science is done with models interacting with observation. Live with it or go join the Amish.

 

[shadron]

Beerina, two deg C increase on average is 3.6 deg F which on average will move the snow line, and the tree line, up in mountains. The watershed for numerous regions of the earth rely on snowmelt as a significant source of water to feed river systems. Over a sustained period, (years, decades?), the amount of remains roughly the same at altitude, but the available snowpack to draw from reduces: the top of the mountain doesn't keep getting taller. So, over time each seasonal cycle, less water flows.

This reduced seasonal water flow puts more strain on aquifers, both the rechargeable and the deeper ones that can't/don't recharge.

Longer term, lack of water flow can lead to dust bowls and deserts.

Each draught becomes more severe, in its impact, than the last. The attendant demographic effects are migrations toward the poles, which translates to yet another round of wars/conflicts over who gets to live where.

DR

Moreover, a large amount of the North American interior is climatologically labeled as semi-arid desert. 10,000 years ago North Africa was temperate climate; a shift in wind and ocean current patterns made it's latitude dryer about 8,000 years ago, and now it is the Sahara desert. Think about that for a while, and what it means for you and your country's self-sufficiency.

 

[BenBurch]

Many "conservative" Americans believe we will rely on the military to take territory that can still support us. Might makes right, and cures all problems, you see?