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Who will win the Alabama Senate special election?

Who will win the senate seat

  • Total voters
    88
  • Poll closed .
Fox just declared Jones has 75% chance to win atm, but it's changed twice in 18 minutes.
 
NYT tacker has a 90% chance of a Jones Victory based on the areas still to report in, and how they have voted so far.... we'll see. I'm not so convinced myself.
 
Beerina said:
Fox just declared Jones has 75% chance to win atm, but it's changed twice in 18 minutes.
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Conservative hearing? You probably have the Fox Filter on and your telly cannot believe that Sean Hannity was actually quoting the New York Times. Fox is not saying Jones @ 75% probability. Fox (Sean Hannity) was citing the NYT.

When they broke to the news desk, Bret opened with "Fox Breaking News Alert: Sean Hannity has quoted the New York Times five times in five minutes!" At least they all laughed, there is some self-deprecation at the network.
 
Been scanning the NY Times voting tracker (probably the only thing logger and I would ever agree on is that it's excellent) and while Moore leads now, a lot of his 'strong' Counties are either completely counted or have the majority of precincts reporting. Meanwhile the larger, more metropolitan areas are still in the early stages (Mobile has only 7 of 190 precincts reporting at this moment) and all of them are going for Jones at this time.

NYT says 80% chance Jones wins, but it has moved so much in the past 20 minutes I refuse to believe it.

Should know in another hour, IMHO.
 
The Moore margin is not yet going down, though. With over 50% in he still has a 26,000 vote margin. That's been the same since about 35% was counted. If Jones is to win, that number needs to start getting tighter.

ETA: As I was typing the numbers jumped to 56% reporting and Moore + 36,000.
 
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Hutch said:
Been scanning the NY Times voting tracker (probably the only thing logger and I would ever agree on is that it's excellent) and while Moore leads now, a lot of his 'strong' Counties are either completely counted or have the majority of precincts reporting. Meanwhile the larger, more metropolitan areas are still in the early stages (Mobile has only 7 of 190 precincts reporting at this moment) and all of them are going for Jones at this time.

NYT says 80% chance Jones wins, but it has moved so much in the past 20 minutes I refuse to believe it.

Should know in another hour, IMHO.
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Nate Cohn has broken down why that's happening with the ticket.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Nate_Cohn?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Short answer: turnout way down in traditional GOP areas and way up in traditional Dem areas.
 
Foolmewunz said:
Conservative hearing? You probably have the Fox Filter on and your telly cannot believe that Sean Hannity was actually quoting the New York Times. Fox is not saying Jones @ 75% probability. Fox (Sean Hannity) was citing the NYT.

When they broke to the news desk, Bret opened with "Fox Breaking News Alert: Sean Hannity has quoted the New York Times five times in five minutes!" At least they all laughed, there is some self-deprecation at the network.
Click to expand...


I'm flipping back and forth between CNN and Fox. And Tosh.
 
Looks like Moore is going to win, proving, once again, that Southerners are F'd up.
 
thaiboxerken said:
Looks like Moore is going to win, proving, once again, that Southerners are F'd up.
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If Moore wins, I will eat a bug. It'll be closer than the NYT estimates earlier, but the remaining vote to be counted is coming in from Birmingham, Mobile and Huntsville - all moderate and even Dem areas. Jones has been winning those areas 5:3.
 
Hutch said:
Been scanning the NY Times voting tracker (probably the only thing logger and I would ever agree on is that it's excellent)
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I'd like to third this thought if I may. I've followed them for every election for some time now, and hat little meter thing they have in the bottom I've never seen wind up wrong this late into an election. Jones may actually have this thing.
 
Trebuchet said:
Meaningless. Large cities always report first and vote Democratic.
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Foolmewunz said:
T'ain't necessarily true. Unless you have actual data from Alabama, not a safe statement to make. Rural outposts close on time and count their fourteen votes quickly. City polls often have lines out the door at closing time and get around to counting the votes for several hours.
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Growing up in Missouri, I got used to the fact that it wasn't worth even bothering to pay any attention to results until the last minute when Saint Louis and Kansas city finally finished hours after everybody else and dumped most of the state's votes in at once.

Cleon said:
Now that Republicans have made it that *********** children is acceptable if the opponent is a Democrat...
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Actually, what they've made clear is either that they don't consider them "children", or they don't believe they're telling the truth, or both.
 
Foolmewunz said:
If Moore wins, I will eat a bug. It'll be closer than the NYT estimates earlier, but the remaining vote to be counted is coming in from Birmingham, Mobile and Huntsville - all moderate and even Dem areas. Jones has been winning those areas 5:3.
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I hear chocolate covered ants are better than fried grasshoppers.
 
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