Who will be the next pope? A probabilistic argument.

LW

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L
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As I haven't been following the Vatican politics, I can't make a justified guess on who will be the next pope. So, I'm forced to use a probabilistic analysis.

First, note that there have been 23 popes called John before but only one Hilarius. So, it would seem that it is 23 times more likely that John XXIV is elected to be the next pope instead of Hilarius II. Not content to limit this analysis on only one pair of candidates, I ran the list of all popes (excluding all anti-popes) through a highly elaborated and complex computer program to find the following probabilities for the next conclave result:
Probability : Winning candidate
0.086: John 24
0.060: Gregory 17
0.056: Benedict 16
0.052: Clement 15
0.049: Innocent 14
0.049: Leo 14
0.045: Pius 13
0.037: Stephen 11
0.034: Boniface 10
0.030: Alexander 9
0.030: Urban 9
0.022: Paul 7
0.022: Adrian 7
0.019: Celestine 6
0.019: Sixtus 6
0.019: Martin 6
0.019: Nicholas 6
0.015: Sergius 5
0.015: Anastasius 5
0.015: Honorius 5
0.015: Eugenius 5
0.011: Julius 4
0.011: Silvester 4
0.011: Lucius 4
0.011: Victor 4
0.011: Callixtus 4
0.007: John Paul 3
0.007: Gelasius 3
0.007: Agapetus 3
0.007: Damasus 3
0.007: Marcellus 3
0.007: Marinus 3
0.007: Theodore 3
0.007: Deusdedit 3
0.007: Pelagius 3
0.007: Paschal 3
0.004: Zosimus 2
0.004: Anterus 2
0.004: Agatho 2
0.004: Dionysius 2
0.004: Severinus 2
0.004: Zephyrinus 2
0.004: Soter 2
0.004: Vitalian 2
0.004: Pontian 2
0.004: Conon 2
0.004: Symmachus 2
0.004: Marcus 2
0.004: Telesphorus 2
0.004: Sabinianus 2
0.004: Anicetus 2
0.004: Peter 2
0.004: Hilarius 2
0.004: Silverius 2
0.004: Cletus 2
0.004: Marcellinus 2
0.004: Lando 2
0.004: Hyginus 2
0.004: Romanus 2
0.004: Simplicius 2
0.004: Donus 2
0.004: Linus 2
0.004: Cornelius 2
0.004: Liberius 2
0.004: Formosus 2
0.004: Constantine 2
0.004: Caius 2
0.004: Siricius 2
0.004: Fabian 2
0.004: Miltiades 2
0.004: Evaristus 2
0.004: Hormisdas 2
0.004: Valentinus 2
0.004: Vigilius 2
0.004: Zacharias 2
0.004: Eusebius 2
0.004: Sisinnius 2
0.004: Eleuterus 2
0.004: Eutychian 2
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Interesting. Contrary to popular belief, there never was a Pope Slamdance Cosmopolis I.

Unfortunately, they change their names when they become pope, so analysis of prior papal names only helps us guess what name the new pope will pick, not who will be picked as the new pope.

I would give small odds on any name that hasn't been used in the last 300 years.
 
According to some Evangelical/ rapture ready Christians he will Pope Theanitchrist 1
 
Can someone explain the rationale previous popes used to 'pick' their popish names? Is it who they admired? Does someone pick for them? What?
 
Rob Lister said:
Can someone explain the rationale previous popes used to 'pick' their popish names? Is it who they admired? Does someone pick for them? What?
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The pope definitely picks it himself. I think, broadly speaking, it's just whom they admire. JP2 took a cue from his immediate predecessor, who in turn was tipping the hat to his two precessors (John XXIII and Paul VI). Although it seems pretty obvious that the tradition must relate to St. Peter (who received a new name from Jesus when he was installed as head of the flock), I wonder if every pope has done this without exception. I note with interest that the name Jesus gave to his first pope (Peter) seems to have been placed off-limits for his successors.
 
ceo_esq said:
I note with interest that the name Jesus gave to his first pope (Peter) seems to have been placed off-limits for his successors.
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I noted the same thing. I wonder whether there is some sort of official church policy on this.

[Edited to add: but that policy doesn't seem to extend to Paul].
 
Marquis de Carabas said:
Personally, I hope the new Pope picks "Funkadelic" as his name.
Click to expand...

My two favorites from the existing names would be Hilarius II and Simplicius II.
 
I wouldn't mind 'Popo Gigio'.
;)

topo_gigio.jpg
 
Pope Brian (in tribute to Monty Python)
Pope Rope-a-dope (in tribute to Mohammad Ali)

:p
 
LW said:
Not content to limit this analysis on only one pair of candidates, I ran the list of all popes (excluding all anti-popes) through a highly elaborated and complex computer program to find the following probabilities for the next conclave result:
Click to expand...
You've got WAY too much time on your hands.
 
ceo_esq said:
The pope definitely picks it himself. I think, broadly speaking, it's just whom they admire. JP2 took a cue from his immediate predecessor, who in turn was tipping the hat to his two precessors (John XXIII and Paul VI). Although it seems pretty obvious that the tradition must relate to St. Peter (who received a new name from Jesus when he was installed as head of the flock), I wonder if every pope has done this without exception. I note with interest that the name Jesus gave to his first pope (Peter) seems to have been placed off-limits for his successors.
Click to expand...

The first pope to choose a new name for himself was John II, in 533. His birth name was Mercurius, and he felt that it would not be appropriate for the head of the Christian Church (or at least the Western portion of it) to have a nane that honored a pagan god. The practice first became common in the tenth and eleventh centuries, but was not yet standard. The last pope to keep his birth name was Marcellus II in 1555.

http://ask.yahoo.com/ask/20050408.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_popes

:bs: According to the prophesy of St Malachi, there will be a second Pope Peter. In fact he will be the next one after the one who will be elected this year. His reign will include the Tribulation, the Rapture, the End of the World, and Final Judgement. :con2: :eek: :rolleyes: :eek: :c2:
 
Re: Re: Who will be the next pope? A probabilistic argument.

SezMe said:
You've got WAY too much time on your hands.
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20 minutes, to be exact.
 
A better probabilistic argument would put more weight on recent and/or memorable popes' names.

/just saying.
 
It's going to be the African because most of the world's Catholics are not European, and there has never been a non European pope, which is more than making the rest a little upset.
 
jay gw said:
It's going to be the African because most of the world's Catholics are not European, and there has never been a non European pope, which is more than making the rest a little upset.
Click to expand...
Technically untrue. St. Peter was obviously not European, and I understand there were a couple of other early popes who were African.
 
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