Who Will Be Speaker of the House?

[hgc]

It's apparent that John Boehner has failed in his job. I say this because one important part of his job is to move legislation of his choosing to the floor for passage. His own majority has just rejected his attempt to do that, which looks to me somewhat similar to a vote of no confidence.

I don't know of any time in recent history when a Speaker has had so little credibility with his own caucus, who elected him to the job. (Scratch that. Newt Gingrich, 1999, when he called his caucus "cannibals.") You might think that I mean to say that Boehner is definitely out of a job. But, that's not entirely clear.

Is the job of Republican Speaker even doable with the inmates in charge of the asylum? Can Eric Cantor succeed? Can anyone else? Why hasn't any one of his expected rivals for power started to float trial balloons?

There are a bunch of possible scenarios, such as these, in descending order of probability:

- Nobody challenges, and Boehner retains the office by default
- Cantor challenges and wins
- Boehner resigns, and Cantor happily steps in
- Someone else (Ryan?) challenges and wins
- Boehner resigns, and Cantor and other powers-that-be put forth a space filler, a la Denny Hastert on behalf of Dick Armey and Tom DeLay
- A large group of Republicans break off like an iceberg from Antarctica and vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker

What I'm wondering is if anyone, having just seen Boehner become roadkill, would want to put themselves at the wobbly controls of the crazy train.

Thoughts?

 

[Unabogie]

There's a video of Cantor after the failed vote looking absolutely like the cat who swallowed the canary.

Cantor will take his job in a matter of days.

 

[Brainster]

My money would be on Ryan, although I think it's still pretty likely that Boehner keeps the job.

 

[SezMe]

I think Brainster is right on both counts. If Ryan did step in, he'd be road kill in three month's time.

 

[Cain]

Ryan would be an awful choice. He couldn't even go toe-to-toe with Biden. Boehner could not position himself as having the backing of the American public, and Ryan will have a more difficult go of it. Poor optics.

 

[Alferd_Packer]

What if a small group of republicans bolts the teappers and makes a deal with Pelosi for the Dem votes?

It would only take a couple dozen republicans and the dem party to usurp the tea party nuts.

 

[jj]

Well, given that the TP and the republicons in general fear the negative ads that Koch and Norquist threaten them with (since they have been successful in driving out the moderates more or less completely), the only thing that's going to happen is paralysis, and that will let the liquidationist millionaires steal more money and offshore it.

When people are SO concerned about being elected that they kowtow both to bribes in the form of campaign donations and blackmail in the form of fear of attack ads, well, nothing good is going to come of it.

 

[elbe]

I read an opinion piece on some TeaParty supporting news site that said that Boehner should go and that his replacement should be a non-congresscritter. Is that even allowed?

 

[SezMe]

Legally no, practically yes.

The Constitution provides that the House may choose its own Speaker.[24] Although not explicitly required by the Constitution, every Speaker has been a member of the House.

 

[geni]

What I'm wondering is if anyone, having just seen Boehner become roadkill, would want to put themselves at the wobbly controls of the crazy train.

Thoughts?

Oh there will always be someone crazy enough to want any bit of power however temporary.

The smarter political operators will probably avoid making a move until January 3rd.

 

[hgc]

I read an opinion piece on some TeaParty supporting news site that said that Boehner should go and that his replacement should be a non-congresscritter. Is that even allowed?

And what difference is that supposed to make?

 

[malicus]

I take it that Boehner's future in the Republican party is done and dusted, whether ousted or he resigns?

 

[ravdin]

I read an opinion piece on some TeaParty supporting news site that said that Boehner should go and that his replacement should be a non-congresscritter. Is that even allowed?

Technically, yes. The Constitution states that the House will elect a Speaker, but it does not say the Speaker must be a member of Congress. No Speaker so far has been elected outside of the House, however.

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

although I think it's still pretty likely that Boehner keeps the job.

Yep.

At some point some of the House Republicans will realize that what Boehner wants them to do is probably closer to what their constituents want. Deals will have to be made, as someone suggested, within the GOP to decide who gets to vote against what must be done for the good of the country, and who will be allowed to maintain ideological purity (for whatever strange political reason they find such a thing desirable).

 

[JoeTheJuggler]

I take it that Boehner's future in the Republican party is done and dusted, whether ousted or he resigns?

I don't think so. The GOP would be foolish to turn against him rather than against the Tea Party Caucus.

 

[Puppycow]

I'm not sure that Boehner is done.

The scenario where he might face a serious challenge is if he cuts a deal with Democrats that most of his caucus doesn't like. That hasn't happened yet. If it doesn't happen until after Jan. ３rd, he could survive. So I doubt there will be a deal now until after Jan. 3rd when the House elects the next Speaker. So probably real fiscal cliff negotiations will be put on hold until after Jan. 3rd, except for kabuki theater. Senate Democrats could possibly try to pass their own "Plan B" to put more pressure on Boehner and the House.

 

[Beerina]

I read an opinion piece on some TeaParty supporting news site that said that Boehner should go and that his replacement should be a non-congresscritter. Is that even allowed?

And what difference is that supposed to make?

It would make for an interesting technical detail, duh.

 

[thaiboxerken]

Are there any Republicans in the House that want his job?

 

[SezMe]

Cantor would **** baby seals for it.

 

[Puppycow]

Are there any Republicans in the House that want his job?

It comes with a pay raise, so probably most if not all of 'em.
If the Speaker retires to make some real money on K Street (like Denny Hastert) and/or whatever it is that Newt Gingrich does it would also probably translate into more money after retirement.