Here's the deal, as I see it.
Need more information, but I also think "waste not want not" and that the pH change, and its influence on coral, is one of the more significant markers pointing to the problem.
Humans have a profound influence on the environment, in some cases, due to concentrated effort. The Cod fisheries of Europe and North America are a fine example of how that concentrated influence can spin out of control. It took political solutions to counter that, but someone paid the price. Me, in having trouble finding cod, and the Canadian and American cod fishing communities, who can't make a living at it anymore.
We disagree on whether more information is needed to start making decisions and taking actions, but we don't disagree in general on whether more information is needed.
It's relatively obvious (unless you ignore the majority (vast majority?) of climate science professionals' professionally stated opinion) that the amount of heat coming in to Earth's surface hasn't changed substantially, the amount of heat going out has decreased, and the amount of heat staying has increased. All three propositions are supported by extensive satellite evidence, and in addition that heat has to go somewhere, and we measure rising temperatures. Ignoring all the nonsense that the woos introduce at the instigation of the real players to cast doubt and delay action by another few months of profits, simple heat balance arguments based on satellite data tell us it's getting warmer, and when we measure it, that's what we find. All the best information we have says it's CO2, and if we reduce CO2, we'll reduce other pollutants that have serious health and environment effects along with CO2. If it turns out it's not CO2 but some other pollutant, then we'll cross that bridge when we come to it, but we won't have hurt anything in the system by decreasing it, and we will have mitigated the impact of whatever that something else might be; we KNOW CO2 is a GWG, so decreasing it can only help it get cooler.
We can and have had major environmental impact; we are currently in the midst of what paleontologists describe as a mass extinction event, and as far as we can tell, it's us. At base, it's because we eat everything we come across if we can; it's more complicated than that, but it starts there. From that standpoint, GW is just one more in a series of catastrophes reaching back a hundred thousand years that we're implicated in causing various ways. A hundred thousand years is a blink of an eye to a paleontologist; the Permian Extinction took ten to fifty times that long, and they call that one the Great Dying.
There's a lot of whining about all the economic impact it will have, but the fact of the matter is, the economic impact of doing something is mostly going to be on the people currently rolling in wealth and can spare it, whereas the impact of doing nothing is going to be on the poorest, who will die in droves. If the rich try to screw up everybody else's lives so they can make another fifty million to add to the ten billion they already have, I predict it's gonna get ugly. You would think anyone could look at what happened in Russia at the beginning of the 20th century, or in the US and France in the 18th, and figure how that was gonna go, but the average IQ is, after all, 100, and it doesn't seem to matter how rich you are.
Personally, if we start doing something pretty quick, I think we can save the situation; if we don't, I think we're in deep ****. Since I'm predicting terrorism, and since I'm pretty rich on the scale of most of the Third World, I figure I'm a target, and I ain't gettin' any of that money those *******s are makin' pumpin' all that CO2 out; basically, I get to pay for their greed, as if I wasn't already for health care and oil and the declining price of my property and the relatively ****** job I have to work at because they stole all the money out of the stock market. Gotta keep your eye on which side of the bread the butter's on, ya know? So screw 'em, they've already made enough messes, they got their friggin' money, they should now go piss off and let the rest of us clean up their mess
AGAIN. Lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way. Don't be lookin' for any favors later on, either, if you ain't helpin'. (Not you personally, Darth.)
Any policy that one tries to implement on a global basis is at risk for political cheating and loophole diving. No, I do not trust for a minute any global environmental rule, when Mexico, our trade partner in NAFTA, faces NO SANCTIONS for how they poison their land in pursuit of profits, for both Mexican and American interests and shareholders.
Therefore, when I see how Kyoto is crafted, as a penalty, or a "you have it good" tax, its political nature overcomes its value.
I see it just the opposite way; it's flawed, but it's better than nothing. If people start dying of starvation and terrorism escalates, or wars start over food, which it's looking increasingly like is getting ready to get ramped up, it's going to be a generation or more of the same crap we already had; whatever the latest one is, it'll be "worse than 9/11" or whatever the place and/or date of the detonation of the first terror-built nuclear weapon or whatever awful thing these *******s dream up to do. Being a member of the target class with not just a whole lot of real good options for preventing or even responding to such things other than yelling about it on an Internet forum if I don't exercise my franchise next year has a way of focusing my attention. I suspect a lot of our countrymen think the same. I sure hope so, because the last six years have been a real MCF.
The main point is, DO SOMETHING. Get off the schneid. Stop sitting around playing the same games the anti-evilution and homeopathic "medicine" crowd does. If the character of the games doesn't make it obvious what's really going on, I don't know what else to cite; the evidence is all out there, and the main body of it is available in threads here on this forum, and it's pretty clear. I argued on it until I became convinced that there was no more point than there is in arguing with some idiot who doesn't think the theory of relativity is right, or thinks fossils are all a plot by the Devil and/or a conspiracy involving ten million biologists. So I put 'em on ignore and I turned and walked away.
Is Kyoto the answer? Hell, no. But it's a START, which is better than we've made so far. Think it's not right? Fine, come up with something better. But the alternative is not doing nothing; that's not going to help. We did that for two decades and it's worse, not better. It's not going away on its own. Like I said, lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way.
Carbon trading? Carbon credits?
Who assigns value? Who won't cheat to make a buck on that market? Every other market people participate is filled with cheaters, loophole divers, and chicanery.
My response is to reduce my foot print a bit. That I can do. I do not trust China and India to self stifle growth, and those two nations are The 800 pound gorillas for the next fifty years.
Way too true for my liking. China at least is a signatory to Kyoto, and if they want to keep doing business with the US and Europe, as far as I'm concerned they'd better sign whatever comes along next, and it better have teeth for them, because otherwise my personal boycott of Chinese and Indian products will continue, and I don't think I'm alone (in fact, I know I'm not).
Far to many "Kyoto is the answer" woos are unwilling to admit how politicized any policy formation is. It took strong arming to get the unleaded gas rule applied. It took strong arming to get the harsher envirnomental rules passed in CA for the past 30 years, political strong arming.
Someone pays a price for that.
Sure, as long as it's not someone's life. And LA is a better place than it would be with ten million cars without catalytic converters farting out toxic waste into the atmosphere, no? I mean, I'm glad I don't have to live there, but there are people who don't have a choice.
The auto companies fought that tooth and nail, and they still are. Don't think a single damn thing has changed there. The ONLY reason they're making hybrids is because the market demanded it; the current administration sure as hell didn't, nor did their pet congresscritters for a few congresses back. Again, is it perfect? Hell, no. But we got off the schneid, and we got something done.
What I don't get is why it has to be all one way or all the other. Whatever happened to how industry gets things made being a matter of concern? We used to have subsidies for this stuff; you get the carrot, the subsidy, and the stick, the law. Take them both out, and let's get to work. Of course, we'd have a hell of a lot better chance if we hadn't spent every damn nickel on Iraq, but that's water over the dam; supposedly the US is the land of innovation, where the hell is the government? And you and I both know the answer to that question.
I recall a time when the US government was involved in basic research that led to innovations that changed the world. New industries opened up, new technologies burgeoned, everybody made a potful of money, and the future was so bright we all had to wear shades. But the old rich got frozen out of the party, so they took half their money and screwed everything up, and now they're buying everything they can up to prevent it happening again. It's not like they don't have enough; it's that they don't have control over it, so they wanna screw it up for everyone else to prove they're in charge. This is gonna get ugly if it keeps up, and I'm surprised more of them haven't figured that out. The last pack of old rich who screwed things up wound up playing the lead role in
le grand guignol called The Terror in France in the 1790s. It can go down that way again, and it will, mark my words, if they don't get some respect for the quarter billion people they're screwing. You can screw some folks for a while without them noticing, but after a while they notice, and then they get mad, and it gets ugly.
Schneibster, I agree with you in one respect: like the battles over water rights that led to range wars in the old American West, the scarcity management issue has immense potential for more, not less, war in the next generation. Some observers of the Sudan conflict at the moment point to the land not being able to support the growth in population, and the age old tension between farmers and pastoralists, herders and ranchers.
Precisely. It's an excellent example. Everyone makes it out to be some religious thing or something, but the truth is, the religious stuff is just a good excuse for following their own interests. It usually works that way. Won't be any different in the current case, either, just more widespread, and the tactics will be different. But the underlying reality will be what it always has been when resources are short. Humans are self-justification machines, and religion has always piggy-backed on that.
People will die, and kill, over this thing we call quality of life.
They always have.
Those in the ivory tower seem to me to be unwittingly setting the conditions for more conflict, some of which will be armed, not less.
DR
Now that I disagree with; seems to me there's a difference between how many people will discard everything over quality of life if they aren't starving vs. if they are. It's a question of how big the recruiting pool is, you see. And the ones most fearsome are always the ones who have nothing to lose; that hasn't changed. What's changed is the damage they can do, and in two decades, that damage may be more than the Earth can sustain. Have you ever heard the term,
mataglap nano? You should look it up and consider its potential as a terror weapon.