Yes, everyday I drop a pencil (usually by accident and not to see if the theory of gravity still holds). That would be a poor test of the theory of gravity. What is your point?
If you understood what science was, you might ask better questions.
Yes, everyday I drop a pencil (usually by accident and not to see if the theory of gravity still holds). That would be a poor test of the theory of gravity. What is your point?
If you understood what science was, you might ask better questions.
Paul C. Anagnostopoulos
Nap, interrupted.
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I vote for never stopping, because when you stop, you start forgetting, and when you forget, backward you go. Then you have to start again. So why the hell stop in the first place?
~~ Paul
~~ Paul
Have you ever made a decision using a coin flip? How did you come to be assured that P(heads) = .5?
Piggy
Unlicensed street skeptic
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I think you have to be correct, because Rick Ocasek said, "Don't cha stop, don't cha stop, don't cha stop, don't cha stop, if it makes you feel good, good, good, good." And he married Paulina Porizkova, so he's gotta be right about something.
Piggy
Unlicensed street skeptic
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Why don't you answer my question about whether answering this question would have any bearing on the OP?
hgc
Penultimate Amazing
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If I'm using the flip of a coin to make a decision, I don't care what the probability is of heads or tails. I only want to avoid making the decision, and thus leave it to chance.
Spindrift
Time Person of the Year, 2006
No, but I drive my car every day and I'm counting on gravity to keep it on the ground and not go flying off into space everytime I hit a bump.
So while I don't calculate its effect, my life is pretty much based around the fact that the theory of gravity still holds.
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It is now a tradition in our family NEVER to use a coin flip to decide anything.
The basis of this is a coin flip between my brother and me.
He flipped a nickel, which landed on a tile floor, rolled over to the wall, bounced off the wall, rolled into the middle of the kitchen, and stopped... on edge.
So I would have to say P(heads) - .5-epsilon
And I do not have a good estimate for epsilon.
joobz
Tergiversator
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This is just an application of Loki's wager.
Fun to debate, but has no real use.
Generally, i confident enough in human imagination that when one person is ready to say, "That's it, there's no more to learn".
another will say, "Hey, What about....?"
Fun to debate, but has no real use.
Generally, i confident enough in human imagination that when one person is ready to say, "That's it, there's no more to learn".
another will say, "Hey, What about....?"
Jeff Corey
New York Skeptic
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I don't know Loki's wager. Is it like Pascal's?
But I agree that as long as there are people asking that question, science will continue.
Mojo
Mostly harmless
You do realise that the fact that things fall if you drop them is not the same thing as the theory of gravity, don't you?
What makes you think I am assured of this?
ponderingturtle
Orthogonal Vector
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Of course you are assumeing truth is a fair coin. If your coin isn't fair you don't know where truth is.
ponderingturtle
Orthogonal Vector
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I said I would do that, will you fund me?
T'ai Chi, probability isn't what you think it is.
The probability of event A is the number of ways event A can occur divided by the total number of possible outcomes.
In other words: if there are two different ways a coin flip can occur (heads or tails) then either heads or tails will occur. As we have read, a coin has more than two possibilites: it can also land on its side. So a coin might have 3 possible outcomes, or more.
But probability is what it is, again: The probability of event A is the number of ways event A can occur divided by the total number of possible outcomes.
The probability of event A is the number of ways event A can occur divided by the total number of possible outcomes.
In other words: if there are two different ways a coin flip can occur (heads or tails) then either heads or tails will occur. As we have read, a coin has more than two possibilites: it can also land on its side. So a coin might have 3 possible outcomes, or more.
But probability is what it is, again: The probability of event A is the number of ways event A can occur divided by the total number of possible outcomes.
Not at all. A colleague of mine in the statistics department has a set of loaded dice that almost always roll sixes. And, for that matter, there are fundamentally three different outcomes for a baseball game -- win, lose, or tie -- but the probability of tieing isn't one in three.
... and the probability of a coin landing on its side is one in three?
The very definition of probability is: The probability of event A is the number of ways event A can occur divided by the total number of possible outcomes.
If your friend's dice only roll sixes, it seems like there is only one possible outcome.
If a coin can land in five possible ways (I can think of five [heads, tails, tilted against a chair heads up, tilted against a chair tails up, on its side]), then by definition, the probability of heads (event A) is 1/5. It all depends on the number of outcomes.
From an elementary book on probability. It is a basic introduction to the world of probability theory. It seems a little strong to say "not at all" to that particular definition, don't you think?
I see this defined on Wikipedia as the "classical theory of probability".
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