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When to "stop" doing science?

Say the following graph (attached) represents the relationship between science and its convergence to the Truth.

For what distance between science and Truth, are we satisfied that science is describing/predicting/modelling Truth well?

That is, for what tolerance, do we feel good that

|science-Truth| < tolerance

is small enough, and how do we know that we've attained such a tolerance?
Actually, this ties in nicely with the approach to science that some of T'ai's heroes in the ID movement take. They say that they can't understand how something could have evolved, assume that their understanding is as good as it is going to get, and stop doing science in favour of saying that God an unnamed designer did it. Hey presto! Irreducible complexity!
 
If we ever "stop doing science", then I want out.

And please.. I put stop in quotes in my original post, so don't try and make it look like I'm saying we hvae to stop doing science period.

It just means we've reached a certain tolerance so that we are mentally assured that more experiments in a particular area are unnecessary.
 
And the graph was taken, and axes changed obviously, from a coin flip simulation:

http://www.statisticool.com/CoinFlip.xls

That is, the flipping of the coin is the science, the empirical investigation. The "Truth" (generally, say that god knows, or that we know in many instances) of a coin is that Probability(Heads) = 50%.

One obviosuly doesn't flip a coin a billion times to be satisfied that P(Heads) = .5, they (and science) are satisifed after a finite number of flips, for some tolerance such that

|%heads observed - .5| < tolerance

(and from this it is hoped people understand how one can be 'over' and 'under' the Truth bar--apologies are expected ;) )
 
And please.. I put stop in quotes in my original post, so don't try and make it look like I'm saying we hvae to stop doing science period.

It just means we've reached a certain tolerance so that we are mentally assured that more experiments in a particular area are unnecessary.
Tolerance for what??? Seems to me that more experiments aren't necessary when there are no new experimental/observational protocols or improvements in instrumentation that may yield a different result than previous ones.
 
For what distance between science and Truth, are we satisfied that science is describing/predicting/modelling Truth well?


That is impossible to answer without having units on the graph. Are you planning on adding units?

ETA: even with units the graph and associated question are pretty meaningless.
 
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Oh I see. You are referring to specific areas of science, not science generally.

It would have saved a lot of time and pointless posts if you'd actually said that to start with! :rolleyes:

I tell you what, you give us an example of a specific area of science that you think has been totally researched out and we'll talk about why it probably hasn't.
 
Of course it is, I wouldn't expect you to be specific about anything.
 
Justin strikes again.

As usual, the real question is not the one he asked, but why he asked the question.

What is his agenda?

Why does he post on this board?

Is he just *******-off in public or is he trying to mess up minds?

Parting thought: Are we really supposed to believe that anyone who posts a bucket of slop such as Justin's OP has any skill at or respect for statistics?
 
We generally don't need to figure out "when to stop."

Because we don't stop. No, we don't run experiments to see if a pencil falls when you drop it, to use your example. I suggest this is not a good example because it's a 'test' the layman tests everyday. But, no matter. The point is that the science are doing now uses the falling pencil as a hypothesis.

Let's suppose gravity fails tomorrow (the layman would notice - again, not a great example for my point). We run an experiment which assumes that gravity exists, and is around 1g at the earth's surface. What happens?

We don't get the predicted results. Opps, something is wrong with one of our assumptions. Which one? Well, we will start out by assuming that the hypothesis under test is incorrect. However, meanwhile 1000's of other people are running tests with assumption of 1g gravity, and those tests will fail. Eventually, someone will get the bright idea to question the existance of 1g gravity, device a test, and find out, that indead, now we have -1g gravity, or whatever.

That's the neat thing about a world whose behavior is based on a few physical principles. Change the principles, and it has a cascade effect that you quickly notice. And, if it doesn't change anything you are looking at, then does it really matter that you haven't noticed it yet?

It's not like scientists sit in a room and have ponderous conversations to decide "the truth". Hypothesises slowly become accepted. "It's probably true plate tectonics exists" leads to experiments and observations. When these agree with the assumption, eventually all geologic science uses the theory of plate tectonics. There's no court of science, no judge. You think you have an idea about the nature of the universe? Get funding, and study/experiment. Guess correctly enough times, and you have a fruitful career in science. Fail? Well, there's plenty of community colleges needing Physics 101 instructors. The person who assumes plate tectonics is false does not get results. Reality sorts out the wheat from the chaff.


ETA: of course, the question is extremely important for individuals, funding reps, etc. "Do I build a hypotheses based the theory of tectonics, or do I try to prove/disprove tectonics itself" is a career make/break question (well, it was at one time). There's no easy answer, as figuring out the answer requires knowing the result you are trying to arrive at. So, we muddle through the best we can.
 
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Ohhhhh!!! Tai wants to know when enough experimenting is done for something to be accepted as pretty much a fact.

The sun is hot. Space is not. Why is the sun hot? Because x, y, & z that makes it a huge mass of burning stuff. Can we test this? Many times. Can we find out why? Well, we do try. Eventually we accept just how hot the sun is, and even know that one day it will be huge enough to first burn the earth to vapour, and then take over the area we once existed.

So, the answer is to the question is that it depends on what hypothesis you are testing. Sometimes the conclusion becomes obvious quite quickly, but sometimes the hypothesis is complex and many pieces of the puzzle must be tackled. We don't stop half way through though, we keep searching and putting the puzzle together until we have a bigger and bigger picture.

So, as far as evolution goes, we have enough of a picture to conclude it happens. We are still putting bits of the "how" together, along with the mass of answers we already have, but slowly and surely the big picture is becoming clearer.

Do you have any specific questions T'ai, or are you still looking for some easy answer to be generalized?

Science does not "tolerate" giving up on some question half way through to give it up to some simple unprovable, yet easy, answer. Science keeps searching until the puzzle is complete. It's okay to say "I don't know yet" in the search for "truth". There is no general absolute ambiguous truth to scientific research.
 
T'Ai Chi,
Have you been like this on the board for 9,000+ posts? If so, impressive.
 
T'Ai Chi,
Have you been like this on the board for 9,000+ posts? If so, impressive.


Why? They are all the same posts :boggled: -9000 of "why can't we accept that goddittit?".

Course, I'm sure Tai can speak for himself and let me know what else he has posted.
 
Why is this thread even in the science section? It is a philosophy question. And pointless in the end.
 
So, the answer is to the question is that it depends on what hypothesis you are testing. Sometimes the conclusion becomes obvious quite quickly, but sometimes the hypothesis is complex and many pieces of the puzzle must be tackled. We don't stop half way through though, we keep searching and putting the puzzle together until we have a bigger and bigger picture.

And the question is, when do you know when enough testing is enough?

Science keeps searching until the puzzle is complete.

And again, just when is that puzzle "complete"? How do you know?
 
And the question is, when do you know when enough testing is enough?



And again, just when is that puzzle "complete"? How do you know?


Is the "how hot is the sun and why is it that hot" question been tested enough? How do we know?

Those are simple enough to answer. Your OP question has already be answered generally as well. Now be a good boy and go think a bit on it.
 

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