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what's the deal with global warming?

Diamond said:

Then we have nothing to discuss, since the proposition of human-induced global warming rests upon issues which are debateable.

There absolutely ZERO debate that CO2 is a very important greenhouse gas. If there was no CO2 in the atmosphere our planet would be about 60F cooler and the oceans would freeze. Water wouldn't even have a chance to make it into the atmosphere. That is understood and accepted by the ENTIRE earth science community. The mechanism in understandable to someone with even a high-school level chemistry education.

(edited to change C to F)
 
EvilYeti said:


There absolutely ZERO debate that CO2 is a very important greenhouse gas. If there was no CO2 in the atmosphere our planet would be about 60C cooler and the oceans would freeze. Water wouldn't even have a chance to make it into the atmosphere. That is understood and accepted by the ENTIRE earth science community. The mechanism in understandable to someone with even a high-school level chemistry education.

As I remarked, you leave ZERO discussion about matters related to climate science.

Please show me any reputable scientific study which would show that without carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the earth would be 60 degrees cooler. Show your working.

Since the earth science community (whatever that means) does not have unanimity of view on climate science, I would suggest that your appeal to popularity is simply false. I can name at least five climatologists who do not subscribe to the human-induced global warmng hypothesis. (They all drive cars and are therefore in the pay of evil petroleum companies, natch)

Unfortunately I do have more than a highschool level chemistry education, which means that I know when you're talking bollocks.
 
rockoon said:


Climate from Tree Rings
by Malcolm K. Hughes, P.M. Kelly, Jon R. Pilcher, and Valmore C. LaMarche, Jr.
Cambridge University Press, 1980

Also you may look at this FAQ:

http://www.civag.unimelb.edu.au/~argent/treering/treefaq.html

And after that, just a generalized search for dendroclimatology on the web will yield many sites.

Its a mature field that wasnt made up over night. The field is older than both of us combined.

Forgive me, I'm not a dendrochronologist, so I'm working my way through the science.

According to the FAQ:
The growth of trees can be affected by slope gradient, sun, wind, soil properties, temperature and snow accumulation. The more a trees rate of growth has been limited by such environmental factors, the more variation in ring to ring growth will be present. This variation is referred to as sensitivity and the lack of ring variability is called complacency. Trees showing sensitive rings are those affected by conditions like slope gradient, poor soils, little moisture. Those showing complacent rings have generally constant climatic conditions such as a high water table, good soil, or protected locations.

So how are these variables separated? Furthermore what is the sensitivity curve of a tree to temperature?

I have read quite a few dendrochronology sites, and all of them state that for best measure of climatic variation, tree ring samples should be taken from specimens on the margins of viability.

I don't want to have to buy a book only to find it doesn't answer my question. Can you assist?
 
Diamond said:

As I remarked, you leave ZERO discussion about matters related to climate science.

There is a HUGE amount of discussion and debate going on in the earth sciences regarding global warming. You are unaware, however, what it is. There are some earth scientists that are skeptical that mankind is responsible for the increase of CO2 present in the the atmosphere, but they are by far in the minority. They don't debate that global warming is real or that an increase in CO2 levels is causing it. The main debate is over what the climatic chages are going to be.

Please show me any reputable scientific study which would show that without carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the earth would be 60 degrees cooler. Show your working.

You have just displayed a stupendous level of ignorance regarding how science works. You can't release a "study" unless you have another planet earth with a CO2 free atmosphere to study!
What you can do, and is perfectly valid from a scientific standpoint, is figure out how much infrared radiation is absorbed by CO2 rather than just radiating out into space
Most of the light energy by the sun is emitted in wavelengths shorter than 4k nanometers, which pass thru CO2 in the atmosphere and warm the earth. The energy from the earth, however, is released at wavelengths greater than 4k nanometers. This radiation encounters CO2 molecules which, due to weaker atomic bonds than O2 or N2, are then pushed into an excited unstable state. The energy is dissipated to the local environment as the CO2 cools and returns to a stable state
Do you doubt that? Is there something wrong with that science? What? Be specific.
To determine how cool the earth would be without CO2 all you need to do is figure out how much energy is radiated from the earth, how much a molecule of CO2 absorbs and how much CO2 is present in the atmosphere. Once you get a figure subtract that from the average temp of the earth, around 60F.
You claim to have understand chemistry and physics, why don't you give us all a lesson and figure it out for us? You obviouslly don't consider myself or the geophysics community a valid reference.

Since the earth science community (whatever that means) does not have unanimity of view on climate science, I would suggest that your appeal to popularity is simply false. I can name at least five climatologists who do not subscribe to the human-induced global warmng hypothesis. (They all drive cars and are therefore in the pay of evil petroleum companies, natch)

You are simply wrong. I work with many earth scientists of all disciplines and their opinion on the validity of global warming as a real and human induced phenomenon is almost unanimous. The skeptics are such a small percentage I haven't even encountered any, I've only read about them. And NO ONE is skeptical that CO2 is greenhouse gas, the earth is getting hotter or that increased levels of CO2 are the prime offender.
Please list your five climatologists, I'm willing to bet they are either:
1. Not really climatologists.
2. Not saying what you think they are saying.

Unfortunately I do have more than a highschool level chemistry education, which means that I know when you're talking bollocks.

Prove it given the example above.

(edited to fix degrees to F)
 
EvilYeti:
To determine how cool the earth would be without CO2 all you need to do is figure out how much energy is radiated from the earth, how much a molecule of CO2 absorbs and how much CO2 is present in the atmosphere. Once you get a figure subtract that from the average temp of the earth, around 60C.
From this random site...
The Greenhouse Effect is a term that describes how water vapor, carbon dioxide, and other gases in the atmosphere help maintain the temperature at the Earth's surface.
....
The Greenhouse Effect serves to keep the long term annual average temperature of the Earth approximately 32°C higher than the Earth's temperature would be without the Greenhouse Effect.
So, water vapor, carbon dioxide and other gases raise the temperature by about 32C. How does that square with your claim that CO2 alone provides 60C?
 
Originally posted by Diamond

As I remarked, you leave ZERO discussion about matters related to climate science.


There is a HUGE amount of discussion and debate going on in the earth sciences regarding global warming. You are unaware, however, what it is.

Oh really?

There are some earth scientists that are skeptical that mankind is responsible for the increase of CO2 present in the the atmosphere, but they are by far in the minority.

A classic straw man. I have not stated that I believe that rising CO2 does not have a anthropogenic component, nor do I know of any reputable climatologist who doesn't.

They don't debate that global warming is real or that an increase in CO2 levels is causing it. The main debate is over what the climatic chages are going to be.

Only in an academic ivory tower could someone come up with such a ridiculous statement. There is considerable doubt that carbon dioxide enrichment causes temperature rise. There are many studies from ice cores which show that carbon dioxide rise FOLLOWS temperature rise by centuries. There are NONE that I know of that show the reverse.

In any case, no mention has been made of solar variability even though we know the sun has increased in brightness since the Maunder Minimum of the 17th Century. Its probably just a fluke.

Please show me any reputable scientific study which would show that without carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the earth would be 60 degrees cooler. Show your working.

You have just displayed a stupendous level of ignorance regarding how science works. You can't release a "study" unless you have another planet earth with a CO2 free atmosphere to study!

Yes. It's probably a different science that I study. In YetiScience, dogmatic statements are made with exact figures, then when questioned the YetiScientist claims that it can't be studied without studyng an atmosphere without its most frightening constituent. So where does this figure come from? Tibet?

What you can do, and is perfectly valid from a scientific standpoint, is figure out how much infrared radiation is absorbed by CO2 rather than just radiating out into space
Most of the light energy by the sun is emitted in wavelengths shorter than 4k nanometers, which pass thru CO2 in the atmosphere and warm the earth. The energy from the earth, however, is released at wavelengths greater than 4k nanometers. This radiation encounters CO2 molecules which, due to weaker atomic bonds than O2 or N2, are then pushed into an excited unstable state. The energy is dissipated to the local environment as the CO2 cools and returns to a stable state
Do you doubt that? Is there something wrong with that science? What? Be specific.

It makes a series of assumptions without proof:

1. That carbon dioxide is available in significant quantities to cause this measureable effect.
2. It ignores the effects of clouds, ice crystals and the water balance.
3. It assumes that the effect of carbon dioxide in the upper atmosphere is the same as at the surface.

Big assumptions. No citations. No proof.

To determine how cool the earth would be without CO2 all you need to do is figure out how much energy is radiated from the earth, how much a molecule of CO2 absorbs and how much CO2 is present in the atmosphere. Once you get a figure subtract that from the average temp of the earth, around 60C.

I said show your working. That means equations. I did not ask you to restate your claim. I asked for emprical evidence.

I'm still waiting.

You claim to have understand chemistry and physics, why don't you give us all a lesson and figure it out for us? You obviouslly don't consider myself or the geophysics community a valid reference.

Because I am not the one claiming that without carbon dioxide, the earth would be 60C cooler.

Since the earth science community (whatever that means) does not have unanimity of view on climate science, I would suggest that your appeal to popularity is simply false. I can name at least five climatologists who do not subscribe to the human-induced global warmng hypothesis. (They all drive cars and are therefore in the pay of evil petroleum companies, natch)

You are simply wrong. I work with many earth scientists of all disciplines and their opinion on the validity of global warming as a real and human induced phenomenon is almost unanimous. The skeptics are such a small percentage I haven't even encountered any, I've only read about them. And NO ONE is skeptical that CO2 is greenhouse gas, the earth is getting hotter or that increased levels of CO2 are the prime offender.
Please list your five climatologists, I'm willing to bet they are either:
1. Not really climatologists.
2. Not saying what you think they are saying.

As I stated before, no-one has claimed that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas, nor that the Earth is currently in a warming phase (since the bottom of the Little Ice Age), so please stop with the stupid straw man argument.

My five climatologists are:

1. Dr Richard Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, MIT
2. Dr John Christy, Professor of Atmospheic Science, University of Alabama at Huntsville
3. Dr. Philip Stott, Professor Emeritus of Biogeography at the University of London (England)
4. Dr. Tim Ball, environmental consultant and a climatology professor at the University of Winnipeg
5. Dr. Fred Singer, President of The Science & Environmental Policy Project and Distinguished Research Professor at George Mason University and Professor Emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia.

Of course you haven't met them. Therefore what they have to say doesn't count. They might even be taking bribes from the fossil fuel industry to lie about the climate.

Unfortunately I do have more than a highschool level chemistry education, which means that I know when you're talking bollocks.

And you are talking bollocks. Let me give you a quote from another climatologist you've never met:

Dr. Tim Patterson, professor of earth sciences (Paleoclimatology) at Carleton University:
"With our star's variability accounting for about half of all the recorded warming in the last hundred years, only 0.3°C is left over for everything else, including urbanization and land use. The amount is even less if an additional 0.1-0.2°C of natural temperature fluctuation is factored in. If increased C02 levels have contributed to global warming at all in the past century, its contribution must have been very minor indeed."

But since neither you nor your colleagues have ever met this person, he might not even exist.
 
DanishDynamite said:
EvilYeti:
From this random site...
So, water vapor, carbon dioxide and other gases raise the temperature by about 32C. How does that square with your claim that CO2 alone provides 60C?

First, I made a typo, the average temp of the earth is about 60F, not 60C. Sorry.

I never made any claim that CO2 alone is responsible for that. I just gave that as a total to subtract CO2's contributions from.

Before anyone starts yammering about water vapor, everyone should understand two things.

1. Water vapor isn't a gas.
(edit: depends on the definition of vapor, it can mean a gas or a suspended liquid/ice. I was refering to the latter)
2. Cool air holds less water vapor than warm air. Anyone who gets dry skin in the winter will understand this.

So more CO2 => warmer air => more water vapor. The inverse is also true. An atmosphere free of greenhouse gasses could support little water vapor. Water vapor is a red herring, don't let the propagandists fool you.
 
EvilYeti said:


First, I made a typo, the average temp of the earth is about 60F, not 60C. Sorry.

I never made any claim that CO2 alone is responsible for that. I just gave that as a total to subtract CO2's contributions from.

Before anyone starts yammering about water vapor, everyone should understand two things.

1. Water vapor isn't a gas.
2. Cool air holds less water vapor than warm air. Anyone who gets dry skin in the winter will understand this.

So more CO2 => warmer air => more water vapor. The inverse is also true. An atmosphere free of greenhouse gasses could support little water vapor. Water vapor is a red herring, don't let the propagandists fool you.

I have no comment. I just wanted to capture this for future generations. :D
 
EvilYeti:
First, I made a typo, the average temp of the earth is about 60F, not 60C. Sorry.

I never made any claim that CO2 alone is responsible for that. I just gave that as a total to subtract CO2's contributions from.
Huh?? You said:
If there was no CO2 in the atmosphere our planet would be about 60C cooler and the oceans would freeze.
 
DanishDynamite said:
EvilYeti:Huh?? You said:

I was using imperial units. 60F translates to 15.5C, which is half of the 32C figure your page listed.
 
DanishDynamite said:
Diamond: Thanks.

By the way, are you really sure you aren't Titanpoint? The resemblance is uncanny.:)

Congradulations, you caught a typo.

Do you have anything of substance to bring to the debate?
 
EvilYeti:
I was using imperial units. 60F translates to 15.5C, which is half of the 32C figure your page listed.
So your claim is that CO2 is responsible for 15.5C of the 32C, right?

From this site:
The major greenhouse gas in the terrestrial atmosphere is water vapor. Minor greenhouse gases that are produced either naturally or by human activity include carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons and nitrous oxide. Of these minor gases, the most important, by far, is carbon dioxide. However, even carbon dioxide absorbs only about 5 percent of the total amount of infrared radiation from the Earth, compared to 90 to 95 percent absorbed by water in the form of clouds and/or water vapor.
Now, I'm not sure of the reliability of this site, but the above seems quite a bit at odds with your claim.
 
Here's a new twist to the debate: instead of arguing whether or not C0 2 emissions cause global warming (which seems to be somewhat up in the air... ), why not try and figure out what other environmental problems C0 2 emissions cause? Anyone have any information on this?


As for all the attack on the oil companies, I think that we're all somewhat to blame. I drive a car. I bet most people on this forum do, too. Oil companies will exist as long as there's a demand for them... until better electric or other chemically-powered cars come out, the demand won't go away. Admittedly, some reform is always needed in the oil industry but blaming that industry for the recent trend that global warming might not be entirely due to C0 2 emissions is unfair... that movement, from what I can tell, has been started in the scientific community... in places like the Earth and Environmental Studies departments in my college, Dartmouth. Many of the ice cores studied for climate are stored and studied right in Hanover, NH, where I go to school. I've seen them, and the science is real. Others (all the Antarctic ones) are stored and studied at Florida State University, where I did an internship this summer.

As for the tree ring debate, aren't ice cores and sediment records better for studying paleoclimate? Tree ring records are only reliable for a few thousand years (think of the oldest tree you know...). Ice cores and sediment go back much farther, which is important for understanding the long-term climate and long-term fluctuations. Besides, there's all sorts of interesting things in ice cores and sediment records. Ash from famous volcanic eruptions, for instance (great for dating) and in the ice cores actual bubbles of prehistoric air.

Just a few thoughts... great debate, though!
 
Kitten:
Here's a new twist to the debate: instead of arguing whether or not C0 2 emissions cause global warming (which seems to be somewhat up in the air... ), why not try and figure out what other environmental problems C0 2 emissions cause? Anyone have any information on this?
The fact that CO2's contribution is, as you say, somewhat up in the air, is what makes it great arguing material. ;)

BTW, I don't know of any other environmental problem with CO2 (excepting of course that it musn't replace the oxygen we need).
 
Diamond said:

Oh really?

Yes really.

A classic straw man. I have not stated that I believe that rising CO2 does not have a anthropogenic component, nor do I know of any reputable climatologist who doesn't.

Whats your point then?

Only in an academic ivory tower could someone come up with such a ridiculous statement. There is considerable doubt that carbon dioxide enrichment causes temperature rise. There are many studies from ice cores which show that carbon dioxide rise FOLLOWS temperature rise by centuries. There are NONE that I know of that show the reverse.

Go ahead and post your citations. Most likely they don't say what you think they say.

In any case, no mention has been made of solar variability even though we know the sun has increased in brightness since the Maunder Minimum of the 17th Century. Its probably just a fluke.

David Thompson's paper refutes this.

Yes. It's probably a different science that I study. In YetiScience, dogmatic statements are made with exact figures, then when questioned the YetiScientist claims that it can't be studied without studyng an atmosphere without its most frightening constituent. So where does this figure come from? Tibet?

What figure are you talking about? The average temperature of the planet?

I have offered references and detailed technical explinations of the science of global warming. David Thompsons paper, which has been published in Science magazine, passed peer review and had not been refuted to date. It shows a DRAMATIC increase in the rate of climate change coinciding with the start of the industrial revolution. I'll post a link when I can find one. If you can't wait go to the library and check out the 1995 series of science magazine.

YOU HAVE OFFERED NOTHING BUT DOGMA. No references, no cites, no data, not even simple explanations, NOTHING. Just empty assertion after empty assertion. "Ice core stuides have shown..." whatever. Post the damn cite so I can review it.


1. That carbon dioxide is available in significant quantities to cause this measureable effect.

Its about 1% of the atmosphere. Thats more than enough. Look it up if you don't believe me. Or run your own experiments, don't make an argument from ignorance.

2. It ignores the effects of clouds, ice crystals and the water balance.

You ignore that fact that water vapor is not a gas and dependant on greenhouse gasses to present. Cold air holds less moisture than warm air.

3. It assumes that the effect of carbon dioxide in the upper atmosphere is the same as at the surface.

Again demonstrating you have no understanding of the mechanisms of global warming or even simple physics. The sun doesn't heat up the atmosphere, the earth does. The higher you go, the farther from the earth you get and the cooler the atmosphere gets. Actually, I don't even know what point you are trying to make. Are you suggesting atomic forces work differently depending on where molecules are in the atmosphere?

Big assumptions. No citations. No proof.

This is simple, basic, earth science 101. Go talk to any earth scientist. Don't take my word for it. You have listed no citations and no proof.

I said show your working. That means equations. I did not ask you to restate your claim. I asked for emprical evidence.

I'm still waiting.

Why should I bother? You obviouslly wouldn't be able to understand it and therefore won't accept it.

Why don't you do the math yourself and present it to us? Seems that would be pretty damning of my position. Do the work yourself and prove to me that you understand the math and physics. Or at least make the effort.

Because I am not the one claiming that without carbon dioxide, the earth would be 60C cooler.


I meant 60F and corrected the typo. The link posted by DD claims 90F with no greenhouse gasses and no water vapor.

You have all the answers, why don't you tell us what the temperature of the earths atmosphere would be sans CO2?


As I stated before, no-one has claimed that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas, nor that the Earth is currently in a warming phase (since the bottom of the Little Ice Age), so please stop with the stupid straw man argument.

So what do you think the billions of tons of CO2 we are dumping into the atmosphere every year is doing.

1. Warming the earth.
2. Cooling the earth.
3. No effect.

Answer the question.

But since neither you nor your colleagues have ever met this person, he might not even exist.

Patterson is a geologist, not a climatologist. Lindzen is a meteorologist. Do you even know what a climatologist is?
 
DanishDynamite said:
What's with the attitude? :confused:

I work in the earth sciences and I am SICK TO DEATH of the amount of ignorance, junk science and downright LIES that are going unchallenged here. This is supposed to be a science forum!

If you have something of substance to bring to the table, by all means present it. If you are only interested in picking apart typo's in my posts, go away. It's the last refuge of the forensic failure.
 
DanishDynamite said:
Kitten:The fact that CO2's contribution is, as you say, somewhat up in the air, is what makes it great arguing material. ;)

Not among earth scientists, the effect is well documented and understood. Apparently many of the contributors here are unaware of that.

BTW, I don't know of any other environmental problem with CO2 (excepting of course that it musn't replace the oxygen we need).
Pure CO2 is deadly. The lake Nyos eruption in Camaroon killed 1,700 people.

cite
 

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