What's going to happen when Putin dies?

[theprestige]

And I'm sure that Putin has left instructions so shortly after his death a number of his underlings are going to fall out of windows, drink some bad vodka, or discover nerve agents in their shampoo. I don't see him appointing a successor but I can see him removing all but one of the potentials. It works out to the same thing, and would give that one a much smoother transition.

What incentive could his underlings possibly have, to carry out his wishes, against their best interests, after his death?

 

[Foster Zygote]

I'm willing to bet he probably won't be strangled by a clown while in a hot tub full of melted butter. That's the sort of specific death that only happens to one in a thousand.

Outside of Las Vegas, sure.

 

[Foster Zygote]

Once the device in his ass senses that his body temperature has dropped below 30°C for more than 30 minutes, it will transmit the signal to detonate all of Russia's nukes.

 

[TragicMonkey]

What incentive could his underlings possibly have, to carry out his wishes, against their best interests, after his death?

Loyalty to their master, bribery, legacies in a will, instructions to still other underlings to take action against the underlings who don't comply...there are a lot of ways to arrange things if you're an evil dictator with the resources of an entire nation at your disposal.

Putin was in the KGB, not charm school.

 

[Orphia Nay]

Once the device in his ass senses that his body temperature has dropped below 30°C for more than 30 minutes, it will transmit the signal to detonate all of Russia's nukes.

This is what's known as Putin having a nuclear bum.

 

[TragicMonkey]

This is what's known as Putin having a nuclear bum.

The dirtiest nuke!

 

[jeremyp]

Loyalty to their master, bribery, legacies in a will, instructions to still other underlings to take action against the underlings who don't comply...there are a lot of ways to arrange things if you're an evil dictator with the resources of an entire nation at your disposal.

Putin was in the KGB, not charm school.

Can you name some examples of dictators where their underlings faithfully followed their instructions after their deaths instead of fighting tooth and nail to be the successor?

I'm pretty sure that loyalty to Putin will outlast his death by maybe milliseconds.

 

[TragicMonkey]

Can you name some examples of dictators where their underlings faithfully followed their instructions after their deaths instead of fighting tooth and nail to be the successor?

I'm pretty sure that loyalty to Putin will outlast his death by maybe milliseconds.

When I say "underlings" I mean anybody who works for Putin, not just the ones who will make an attempt to replace him. You don't think he has a few personal assassins and thugs on his payroll? Henchman #31 isn't going to try to seize the throne, but he might bump off Oligarch Alpha if Putin laid out a plan for him to do so. "Dear Hench 31, thanks for being a great employee, sorry I'm dead LOL. My lawyer will transfer 500,000 shekels to your bank account after my death, and another 2,000,000 shekels after the death of Ivan Schemeplotzinky, if you get my meaning. Wink, wink! Love always, your pal Vladdy P."

Obviously the big kids will be doing some housecleaning of their own, but some of it will have been pre-arranged by the previous guy.

 

[theprestige]

Loyalty to their master,

I doubt loyalty to a dead man will win out over loyalty to their own sorry asses, their own bank accounts, and the man holding the biggest gun.

bribery,

Who would pay out these bribes, rather than using the money to fund their own rise to power?

legacies in a will,

Who would be inclined to honor this will, rather than pillaging Putin's estate to fund their own rise to power?

instructions to still other underlings to take action against the underlings who don't comply...

This is just pushing the loyalty solution one layer down, one layer out. It's still loyalty to a dead man, against their own best interests.

there are a lot of ways to arrange things if you're an evil dictator with the resources of an entire nation at your disposal.

Maybe if you're a Bond villain. Or Hank Scorpio.

Putin was in the KGB, not charm school.

KGB is not magic.

 

[jeremyp]

When I say "underlings" I mean anybody who works for Putin, not just the ones who will make an attempt to replace him. You don't think he has a few personal assassins and thugs on his payroll? Henchman #31 isn't going to try to seize the throne, but he might bump off Oligarch Alpha if Putin laid out a plan for him to do so. "Dear Hench 31, thanks for being a great employee, sorry I'm dead LOL. My lawyer will transfer 500,000 shekels to your bank account after my death, and another 2,000,000 shekels after the death of Ivan Schemeplotzinky, if you get my meaning. Wink, wink! Love always, your pal Vladdy P."

Obviously the big kids will be doing some housecleaning of their own, but some of it will have been pre-arranged by the previous guy.

Still waiting for the examples of dictators actually doing anything like this and it being successful.

Like many dictators, Putin doesn't seem to have any chosen successor so why would he give instructions to people to bump off the rivals of the said non existent successor?

Furthermore, you seem to have a quaint idea that Putin's instructions will be obeyed by his lawyer after his death. If you were one of thew rivals seeking to win the succession, wouldn't you just bump off any likely looking underlings and lawyers in case any such instructions exist and also expropriate Putin's bank account for yourself as soon as you were successfully installed as dictator?

 

[jeremyp]

And to expand on this, you could probably describe monarchs as a kind of dictator. Kings and queens often left instructions about the succession but despite even having the force of law, their wishes could be ignored. Being dead has a seriously detrimental effect on your power and influence.

 

[TragicMonkey]

Still waiting for the examples of dictators actually doing anything like this and it being successful.

I'm sure at least some monarchs and emperors throughout history have had it done, but I really don't feel like doing homework to find examples. Usually it's the squabbling successors or actual successor cleaning house -- getting rid of potential claimants and families and overly loyal followers, etc. I wouldn't bet on there never being a "in case I die" list left behind that somebody, somewhere decides to follow through upon.

Like many dictators, Putin doesn't seem to have any chosen successor so why would he give instructions to people to bump off the rivals of the said non existent successor?

I wouldn't bet he hasn't chosen a successor, or at least a couple of potential candidates. He just hasn't announced it to the world because why would he? It would just put targets on their backs. He's not crazy or stupid, he knows he's mortal, and if his plan was/is to build a new glorious Russian empire he's not going to want it to distintegrate the moment he dies -- he's not Trump, completely self-oriented. Putin wants to leave an actual legacy.

Furthermore, you seem to have a quaint idea that Putin's instructions will be obeyed by his lawyer after his death. If you were one of thew rivals seeking to win the succession, wouldn't you just bump off any likely looking underlings and lawyers in case any such instructions exist and also expropriate Putin's bank account for yourself as soon as you were successfully installed as dictator?

It depends on how much information the would-be successors have and how long their reach is. How would anybody know what everybody else's loyalties are? You don't know until they act, or fail to act. You think there's a complete list of "My Favoritest Agents" in Putin's handwriting in a Hello Kitty notebook someone can find and eliminate the day after?

 

[TragicMonkey]

And to expand on this, you could probably describe monarchs as a kind of dictator. Kings and queens often left instructions about the succession but despite even having the force of law, their wishes could be ignored. Being dead has a seriously detrimental effect on your power and influence.

I'm not denying that, I'm just saying it also doesn't automatically mean the reverse. Lots of people carry out the wishes of the dead.

 

[ahhell]

And to expand on this, you could probably describe monarchs as a kind of dictator. Kings and queens often left instructions about the succession but despite even having the force of law, their wishes could be ignored. Being dead has a seriously detrimental effect on your power and influence.

As a rule, most monarchies had pretty clear succession rules that predated the monarch in question. Oldest child of a legit wife, oldest son of a legit wife, elected by nobles, etc. Not typically as anarchic as modern dictatorships. Sometimes for sure, lots of civil wars fought over who would be king but still, there's almost always that sort of thing in modern non-monarchic dictatorships.

 

[rjh01]

Dictators have a problem with the successor. They can name and groom one. However, this will then give that person huge powers. And if that person dies then there is a huge problem.
The other solution is to put all the powerful people in a room and they agree on who should succeed the ruler. This can be done before or after death. These people should have a good working relationship. The substantial risk is that one person seizes power before these people meet.

 

[jeremyp]

I'm sure at least some monarchs and emperors throughout history have had it done, but I really don't feel like doing homework to find examples.

You seemed so certain in your assertions that I thought you already had done the homework.

Was your hypothesis based on any evidence at all?

Usually it's the squabbling successors or actual successor cleaning house -- getting rid of potential claimants and families and overly loyal followers, etc. I wouldn't bet on there never being a "in case I die" list left behind that somebody, somewhere decides to follow through upon.

I'm sure some dictators do leave an "in case I die" list behind, but I can't think of any off the top of my head where they did and people carried out their wishes.

I wouldn't bet he hasn't chosen a successor, or at least a couple of potential candidates. He just hasn't announced it to the world because why would he? It would just put targets on their backs. He's not crazy or stupid, he knows he's mortal, and if his plan was/is to build a new glorious Russian empire he's not going to want it to distintegrate the moment he dies -- he's not Trump, completely self-oriented. Putin wants to leave an actual legacy.

It's more than that. Naming a successor automatically increases the power base of that successor and they might be tempted to speed up the timetable for the transfer of power. Especially as they will then have a target on their back, as you say and ascending to the throne might be the best chance of survival.

 

[jeremyp]

As a rule, most monarchies had pretty clear succession rules that predated the monarch in question. Oldest child of a legit wife, oldest son of a legit wife, elected by nobles, etc. Not typically as anarchic as modern dictatorships. Sometimes for sure, lots of civil wars fought over who would be king but still, there's almost always that sort of thing in modern non-monarchic dictatorships.

But even then, there is often chaos. Off the top of my head, I can think of a few examples where the monarch named a successor in English history but it didn't work out as they hoped.

Modern dictators often fail to name a successor because keeping the candidates uncertain and intriguing against each other is a device to stop any of them from challenging the incumbent.

 

[jeremyp]

Dictators have a problem with the successor. They can name and groom one. However, this will then give that person huge powers. And if that person dies then there is a huge problem.
The other solution is to put all the powerful people in a room and they agree on who should succeed the ruler. This can be done before or after death. These people should have a good working relationship. The substantial risk is that one person seizes power before these people meet.

You are joking aren't you? The probability is that they are at each others' throats.

 

[jimbob]

I am certain that Putin made sure that there was NO clear line of succession, no one with the unquestioning authority to take over should he be incapacitated, temporary or otherwise.
Such a post would be a single point of failure in his power.

Exactly. At least with absolute monarchies there were options for clean transfer of power on some occasions.

I naively assume that in these kinds of foreseeable scenarios, the main stakeholders will have anticipated the contingencies, laid plans for their ascendancy, and will be prepared for the transfer of power they desire.

But in practice it rarely seems to work out that way. I suspect that in reality it does kind of work out that way, but plans don't survive enemy contact, and most of the details of what really happened never come out.

So I expect it will look like a clownshow of incompetent nincompoops who had no idea Putin was gonna die some day soon. He'll probably be replaced by a junta, backed by the same Oligarchs who backed him, none of them powerful enough to wrest control from the others. This will persist for a few years, until one of them manages to consolidate power in his own hands.

As for Ukraine... I expect that a loss of forceful leadership at the top will result in a great stalling out and withdrawal from the occupied territories. Russian commanders in the field will realize that their chain of command (such as it was) is entirely broken, that their logistics are even more stuffed up than usual, and that there is no longer any semblance of a strategic goal. There will be a lot of units that just quietly walk away from the front lines. Assuming Ukraine still has battle-ready formations in the field, a massive collapse of the Russian army will soon follow. Ukraine will ultimately end up with everything that's theirs, plus a decent chunk of Kursk and Belgorod oblasts to play with.

As for the highlighted. I suspect that the failure to turn Ukraine into a puppet state and the lack of a short victorious war will mean that any successor will regard the war as an unwanted drain on resources. I'd expect him (I doubt Putin's unacknowledged daughters will survive, but maybe one is a wild card) to discover a reason why it was a mistake/crime against the Russian people; maybe Putin was mislead, maybe Putin was a fool (it depends what they want to do with Putin's reputation).

I don't expect the war against Ukraine to survive long past Putin, and I don't expect Putin to long survive a ceasefire without the installation of a puppet regime or at least massive concessions that would make Ukraine completely vulnerable to future Russian aggression.

 

[3point14]

But even then, there is often chaos. Off the top of my head, I can think of a few examples where the monarch named a successor in English history but it didn't work out as they hoped.

Llook what happened to Viserys.