What evidence is there for evolution being non-random?

meadmaker said:
I want to revise this, because what I said above doesn't get at what I was really thinking. When describing evolution to a six year old, vs. a population geneticist, vs. someone with a PhD in engineering who has read a lot of books on evolution, vs. the Jehovah's Witness at your door, different descriptions are appropriate, and no reasonable person would deny that.

The thing is that a physicist and a population geneticist (and indeed one of the seminal figures in evolutionary bioloy) all use(ed) the same meaning of random.

It is only when speaking to the scientifically illiterate that they don't.

Someone with no idea about evolution but an understanding about how the words random and nonrandom are used in statistics etc, would be misinformed if one said that evolution was nonrandom.

They would not be misinformed if one said it was "ordered, but random", or "probalistic", or "displays short-term order" (just been thinking about amorphous silicon at work...)

Also, mijo, who are "the people who most need to understand it to understand it (evolution)?" per post #1011. To me, those who feel comfortable summing up natural selection as a random or a stochastic process are amongst those who most need to understand evolution--because it sure sounds like they don't to any biologist. By your "dynamic" interpretation, this thread evolves randomly--and that who would say such a thing if someone asked "what is the evidence for the evolution of this thread being non-random?" It renders the word random useless because it applies to all things that evolve and all processes that involve any kind of randomness.

To me, those who feel comfortable summing up natural selection as a random or a stochastic process are amongst those who most need to understand evolution--because it sure sounds like they don't to any biologist.

What about Fisher? He was a seminal figure in evolutionary bilology (Dawkins, according to wik, see my post #1006).

Articulett, I think that your point about clones is mijo's. Assuming that these hypothetical identical twins *are* very similar, it is very possible for one to reproduce and the other to not do so. The important environmental factor could be chance; the "slightly more runtish one" might be the one to breed. Due to chance.

The same for any other individual. Due to chance.

Articulett, what is wrong with "random but not disordered"? as a description. Or "probabilistic and ordered"?

Jim
 
Another thought:

Speciation is more likely to occur in small, isoloated populations.

This is because the initial genetic diversity is lower, and random mutations can have a larger effect.
ETA:

Genetic drift would have a faster effect.

Genetic drift is random by my usage, what about yours articulett?
 
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Interesting experiment. Type the phrase "evolution is random" into google.

And, at least as of today, you'll get this thread on page 1. I always find that scary when that happens.

ETA: And, to be fair, there are some creationist links found on the first page.
 
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Ummm, the statement that the philosophy of science is not science is relatively straightforward; it's not science, it's philosophy. Science uses a specific methodology, called the scientific method; philosophy does not, because if it did, it would be abandoned as meaningless. Which, from many physical scientists' points of view, it is anyway. And by its own method, this is a perfectly justifiable point of view.

Carry on.

I'm not sure you understand what I mean. I'm not claiming that philosophy of science is science per se; I am noting the phenomenon scientists only seem to use the philosophy (even then on the sly) when it benefits them in arguing against pseudoescience or non-science. This is not in any way unique to scientists but I think that it would do scientists better in the intellectual honesty department if they considered all the implications that the philosophy of science has for their various disciplines rather than using it just when it benefits them.
 
I find it interesting that probably one of the most celebrated and important blows to ID, Kitzmiller v. Dover, relied heavily on the testimony of philosopher of science Robert Pennock to determine that ID wasn't science. However, when I present evidence from the philosophy of science that evolution is best described as a statistical process, I am told that "philosophy of science is not science" and that it is "a common creationist tactic" to appeal to the philosophy of science.

How can the philosophy of science be both essential and anathema to science itself?
 
I find it interesting that probably one of the most celebrated and important blows to ID, Kitzmiller v. Dover, relied heavily on the testimony of philosopher of science Robert Pennock to determine that ID wasn't science. However, when I present evidence from the philosophy of science that evolution is best described as a statistical process, I am told that "philosophy of science is not science" and that it is "a common creationist tactic" to appeal to the philosophy of science.

How can the philosophy of science be both essential and anathema to science itself?

Because Behe's own testimony is what's so destructive to ID, not Pennock's. Even without Pennock, ID's case in Kitzmiller v. Dover was laughably self-destructive.
 
So you're basically saying that you are convince that evolution is non-random and no evidence that anyone can provide will convince you otherwise?

No, my position has always been that it's misleading to describe natural selection as random when you have defined mutations as such.

And Schneibster, I have repeatedly defined random as used by biologists including a quote from a science dictionary--random means having roughly an equal chance of occurring or a single event not related to past, present, or future events. And then there is the lay person terminology of "chance", "haphazard" and so forth.

Sure, evolution is random if you mean purposeless or even undirected, although it IS directed by what came before--just like ants digging a maze in the earth. Evolution is random if you mean that random (unpredictable) events factor in...but that makes the evolution of everything random, because when is some sort of randomness not involved in evolution. The mutations in ducks genitalia are random, but only the ones that confer quite a benefit are driving the evolution--they are selected from the randomness. I guess I'm fine with calling that random amongst people who understand the "non-random" aspects of evolution, but I'm also more than clear why Dawkins and all those biology sites go out of their way to distinguish between the two--how misleading and uninformative the such statements can be.

Moreover, I think it has been illustrated that such wording is abused all the time to make evolution sound "impossible" or "unlikely"--when you understand natural selection (the NON-RANDOM aspects of evolution), it illuminates; it makes it easy to understand.

The reason biologists cringe when evolution is described as random, is because it is abused by creationist to make understanding of natural selection unclear. I'm not saying that there are not random components involved in selection. I am saying, it conveys no information as to the "non-random" aspects of evolution when when the whole process is summed up as random. It makes ALL processes random...and the evolution of anything random...which makes the word useless at best--especially if the goal was to understand what biologists are attempting to clarify and to understand the "evidence for evolution being non-random".

If you want to know the evidence for evolution being non-random it is identical to the evidence for the evolution of this thread being non-random or the evolution of duck genitalia being non-random. This works no matter how you are defining the word random. If there is no evidence that the evolution of duck genitalia is random per whatever definition you give the term, then there is no evidence that evolution itself is random by the same definition of the term.

I am both answering your question in the OP, and telling you that it all depends on how you are defining random. For myself, having random components (selection) does not make the process itself random--otherwise ALL processes (or at least most that I can think of) are random for the exact same reason. Dying is a process; so is food processing and word processing.
So is artificial selection. I can think of random aspects to all these processes. But I, personally, would not describe these as random processes for the same reason I would not describe evolution--particularly natural selection as a random process. It's uninformative and fails to convey the "non-random" aspects--the stuff that sticks...and how it is built onto.

I am trying to understand this definition of random where everything can be called random as long as some randomness is associated with it somewhere.
Perhaps you are talking about degrees of randomness where some stuff is close to being truly random...and some stuff is really close to being truly determined--But if you want to understand Dawkins and the "non-random" aspects of evolution, I suggest you stick with the definitions offered by the sources making the claim. The Berekely site even has a link with a glossary.

It seems that if you are going to use your own definition of random, then the evolution of everything is random and all processes are also random. How is that useful in answering your question in the OP?

Also, some have defined non-random as determined. If that's the case, then selection is non random, because it is determined in it's entirety by the surviving members of the gene pool and their ability to successfully reproduce.
They, and only they, can be selected... just as only those that post on this thread can play a part in the evolution of this thread. The word random doesn't seem to describe that occurrence very well in my book. Sure, it can be described by a probability chart and randomness is involved...and you are free to call the evolution of this thread random just as you call evolution itself. But that doesn't answer your question does it?--it just leads you to declare that there is no evidence for evolution being non-random. And I agree, if the evolution of this thread is random per your definition of random, then evolution itself is random.
 
I find it interesting that probably one of the most celebrated and important blows to ID, Kitzmiller v. Dover, relied heavily on the testimony of philosopher of science Robert Pennock to determine that ID wasn't science. However, when I present evidence from the philosophy of science that evolution is best described as a statistical process, I am told that "philosophy of science is not science" and that it is "a common creationist tactic" to appeal to the philosophy of science.

How can the philosophy of science be both essential and anathema to science itself?

What part of Pennock's testimony did you think was an important blow to ID?
I think the important blows came from non-scientists all right--Behe himself being the main one. And the judge was not a philosopher of science nor a scientist--and he was clear that that it was Behe's dishonesty that was the most devastating blow. I can think of several devastating blows...but not any in particular from Pennock. Please enlighten us.
 
You know, articulett, the most frustrating thing about discussing evolution with you is that no matter how many times I tell you that "unconstrained", "non-time-dependent", and "uniformly distributed are not what I mean by "random" your arguments continue to imply that is what I mean by "random".

I have also been fairly explicit about what I mean by "determined" in so far as identical initial conditions lead to identical results, but you, like the creationists you so abhor do with "theory" and "random", continue to use another definition of "determined". Yes, the genetic composition of next generation is "determined" by who in the previous generation reproduces, but who in the previous generation reproduces is determined by sampling the population, which is an inherently statistical process.
 
Well, perhaps you didn't.
But see, it's orderly. And selection is that which imposes the order. It's the arbiter of the probability function for any given interaction. Doesn't matter if it changes over time; for each interaction, it's stable, and even over a large number of interactions, big enough to be a statistical universe, it's stable for a short period of time, more than long enough to allow us to view it as a Law. We deal often enough with time-variant functions that determine the probability; for example, an object moving in a field, as the field strength changes.

When you use the term orderly--you are talking about "something" (a force--the physical environment) that imposes order, right? When complexity comes from randomness it is due to physical aspects of the environment that impose order--right? This would be true if you are talking about the evolution of the galaxy or the evolution of life, right? Would you define this "phenomena" that produces order as "random"? What I want to know is in physics and statistics would it make sense to define the "force" that brings order in terms of randomness? Or to call it random?

Is it meaningful to define that which brings order to the randomness to build complexity as being random in itself? We all agree that order can come from chaos and randomness. But as to the aspects that facilitate this order--how do you distinguish the random components in this "order bringer" from the randomness it acts upon? Or do you? How would you or how did Dawkins' communicate this so that you understood the difference between randomness that is acted upon and the randomness involved in the forces that cull from (or bring order to) the randomness?

Because that is the answer to the question isn't it. I really don't think I'm missing any of the definitions of random or why one could call evolution random. I'm really just trying to show why biologists think it's misleading and uninformative to categorize natural selection (the order imposer) with the same terminology as used in describing mutation (which is not even truly random in the strictest sense of the word.) Biologists do this because the many definitions of random make such phraseology ripe for abuse. It makes people go off on tangential semantic circles instead of just understanding the basics. And truly, it's this confusion that makes people think "evolution is impossible". But evolution is easy to understand. Finding the right terminology to convey it's basic premises without opening oneself up for semantic shenanigans is difficult as this thread beautifully illustrates.

Surely there must be a way to convey "that which brings order" so that it is not confused with that which it is bringing order to. A way that satisfies even the randomites--but is clear...and not subject to the "philosophy of science" and semantic obfuscation. In any case, I hope the randomites understand how difficult this particular task is... From a biologists perspective, calling evolution random fails to convey that which brings order to the randomness--it allows for the creation mischaracterization of evolution and makes the concept of complexity from chance look unfathomable and an "intelligent designer" seem more plausible. Whatever words you use to describe evolution...if someone wants to know about the non-random parts or how the order "evolves"--use whatever words you would use to describe how complexity evolves from any sort of randomness.
 
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The interesting phenomenon, to me, is that the word "random" in connection with evolution has become taboo for some people, regardless of the context or audience. I use that word, "taboo", deliberately, because I think that's what we are dealing with.

That's the way I see "evolution is random". That's what the Outsiders say. The Real People do not say that.

That's not correct. Because that word and words like it have been abused to make evolution seem impossible, biologists bend over backwards to distinguish the randomness of mutation from the selection process that imposes order on that randomness. It is, apparently, too easy to confuse random components in that which imposes order and conclude creationist conundrum #4 (evolution says complexity arose through chance). Anybody can understand how unfathomable this sounds--which is why biologists bend over backwards to describe the process that brings order to the randomness. Natural Selection is the key to understanding evolution-- to understand the evolution of anything, you must understand why some things "stick" around to be built upon. Any language that makes that basic understanding difficult or glossed over is ripe for abuse. I don't think biologists care what term you use for describing that which imposes order on the randomness--but we note that whatever you use, it will probably be best if you don't confuse the randomness of mutation with random events involved in that which imposes order on the mutation.
 
Articulett, what is wrong with "random but not disordered"? as a description. Or "probabilistic and ordered"?

Jim

I think it's fine...but the question was about the non-random aspects of evolution. What word would you use to distinguish the bringer of order from the stuff it brings the order to? To a biologist, the stuff you bring order to is the "randomness"-- How does complexity come from randomness? ...and would you use the word random to describe such a process?

When a statistician or a mathematician or a physicist or an engineer wants to describe how complexity arises from randomness, what is the word they use?
What brings order to randomness? And, whatever it is, is it meaningful or useful to characterize that "thing" as random also--if it has random components?
 
Another thought:

Speciation is more likely to occur in small, isoloated populations.

This is because the initial genetic diversity is lower, and random mutations can have a larger effect.
ETA:

Genetic drift would have a faster effect.

Genetic drift is random by my usage, what about yours articulett?

More or less. Genomes are package deals--whenever there is a bottleneck or a founder effect or the isolation of a species--the genome is filled with the gene packages of those species--they have a smaller gene pool with which to produce the next generation so traits will arise that aren't necessarily beneficial--but because there is not a lot out there to choose from in the mating department.

Ashkenazi Jews who immigrated to America mated with each other and so their descendants are particularly prone to some disorders that the founders carried in recessive form.

The Y chromosome carries many mutations and we know more or less where they originated and when...so we can look at Y chromosomes and trace the "drift"--where your ancestry passed through as time progressed.

I had mentioned before that sometime after the orangutan split but before the human, gorilla, chimp splittings--the vitamin C gene was mutated such that our primate ancestors could no longer make vitamin C--but this apparently occurred in creatures who, overall, were getting enough vitamin C in their diets and had enough genomic strengths that such a mutation didn't matter--and it drifted on to all subsequent descendants for better or worse.
If you are a crappy piece of DNA stuck in a genome that has so many advantages that it doesn't matter, you'll get copied along with everything else.
 
You know, articulett, the most frustrating thing about discussing evolution with you is that no matter how many times I tell you that "unconstrained", "non-time-dependent", and "uniformly distributed are not what I mean by "random" your arguments continue to imply that is what I mean by "random".

I have also been fairly explicit about what I mean by "determined" in so far as identical initial conditions lead to identical results, but you, like the creationists you so abhor do with "theory" and "random", continue to use another definition of "determined". Yes, the genetic composition of next generation is "determined" by who in the previous generation reproduces, but who in the previous generation reproduces is determined by sampling the population, which is an inherently statistical process.

I know the definition you are using: Of or relating to a type of circumstance or event that is described by a probability distribution

And I am telling you...that if you are using this definition, then there appears to be no evidence for evolution being non-random per your definition. But you pretended to want to know the the non-random aspects of evolution...in which case I think the definition used in the biological dictionary and websites ought to apply. If we use your definition, non random would mean: Not relating to a type of circumstance or event that is described by a probability distribution, correct?

If that is the case, then the evolution of anything is random and all processes are random except for anything that can't be somehow related to a probability distribution. I bet I can relate anything to a probability distribution. So in essence, your question was not answerable with your definition and your conclusion is meaningless because it is so vague that it makes just about every process or the evolution of anything imaginable "random", correct? With such vagueness of a definition, I bet I could make an argument for anything in the world being random.[/QUOTE]

But that doesn't change the facts about evolution one iota, nor does it convey understanding as to that which brings order to the disordered--that which biologists refer to as the "non-random" or the "opposite of chance", does it?
 
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I think it's fine...but the question was about the non-random aspects of evolution. What word would you use to distinguish the bringer of order from the stuff it brings the order to? To a biologist, the stuff you bring order to is the "randomness"-- How does complexity come from randomness? ...and would you use the word random to describe such a process?

When a statistician or a mathematician or a physicist or an engineer wants to describe how complexity arises from randomness, what is the word they use?
What brings order to randomness? And, whatever it is, is it meaningful or useful to characterize that "thing" as random also--if it has random components?

Emergent behaviour?


-random means having roughly an equal chance of occurring or a single event not related to past, present, or future events. And then there is the lay person terminology of "chance", "haphazard" and so forth.

What about the total score on a pair of dice?


What about the population geneticist's definition of random as probabilistic, "within people of west african descent, there is a greater probability of finding sicle cell anaemi, than those of nordic descent". The selection pressure about that individual trait was different, which gave rise to the different prevalances, but the actual selection of those who had the trait was random, they were just less likely to be killed before sucessful reproduction (offspring surviving to adulthood...) by one of the biggest killers. They still were highly likely to be killed by others.


Define random how most other disciplines use it, and indeed how many evolutionary biologists at least sometimes use it, then tell the cretinists that if they can't understand what random means, a better word could be "probabilistic".


Also, some have defined non-random as determined. If that's the case, then selection is non random, because it is determined in it's entirety by the surviving members of the gene pool and their ability to successfully reproduce.

I would prefer to say that it is constrained by the surviving gene pool. The selection of the reproducing iorganisms is heavily influenced (modulated) by chance. "Boundry conditions" if you want to speak math...

Nonrandom, or "determined" means that given identical starting conditions, identical outcomes would always occur. This is not the case in evolution.
 
When you use the term orderly--you are talking about "something" (a force--the physical environment) that imposes order, right?
No. The order arises merely from the elementary constituents and the probability distribution function of their interactions.

Stuart Kauffman has an excellent example in At Home In the Universe. I'll review it here as briefly as possible.

Take a box of buttons. Dump them on the ground. Mark the position of each button; you're going to be picking them up and putting them back where they came from.

Pick two buttons. Connect them with a piece of thread. Put them back.

Keep doing this.

Now, how does the size of the largest network of interconnected buttons vary with the ratio of the number of threads to the number of buttons?

One expects a relatively smooth upward trend. But that is not what one gets. What one gets is an S-curve; the size of the largest network varies not much (stays under about 10% of the buttons) until the number of threads is a bit short of half of the number of buttons; suddenly, each string you connect after that makes a larger and larger network, and this continues until just a bit more than half. at which point the size of the largest network is very close to all the buttons (90%). After that, the size of the largest network again doesn't vary much as you add buttons.

So between 45% and 55%, the size of the largest network goes from 10% of the buttons to 90% of the buttons. This is the critical zone for all randomly-defined networks. This is a tautology of the topology; it doesn't matter what the buttons represent, or what the threads represent- in topology, the buttons are called "nodes," and the threads "edges-" all networks constructed in this manner will show this behavior. It's a mathematical fact, and it's manifest in the real world.

Now, the environment doesn't matter to this behavior. Nothing matters but that there be something that can act as nodes, and something that can act as edges. As long as this is true, this is the behavior you will see. It's not yet been proven ab initio, but empirically, Kaufmann has done many experiments of this type, and the behavior is always seen, on average. And the larger the number of nodes involved, the more closely the system adheres to this behavior.

The same sort of mathematical separation applies for statistical analyses of ensembles of elementary particles. It doesn't matter what the particles are, it doesn't matter what the interactions consist of, it doesn't matter what the environment is (because the environment is assumed in such analyses to have separate effects); if you have a probability distribution at the individual interaction level, you will see statistical behavior of the ensemble. The only things that matter are, what are the possible interactions, and what are their probability distributions. This was partially shown by Boltzmann and Maxwell, and conclusively proven as a mathematical theorem in the Fluctuation Theorem, which shows the mathematical underpinnings of the Maxwell-Boltzmann statistics that result in the Laws of Thermodynamics.

THAT'S what I mean by orderly. The outcome is certain, because of the probability distribution of the individual interactions; and the more interactions, the more certain the outcome.

When complexity comes from randomness it is due to physical aspects of the environment that impose order--right? This would be true if you are talking about the evolution of the galaxy or the evolution of life, right?
No. It is not due to the environment. It is due to the probabilities of the individual interactions. If those probabilities are altered by the environment, then you must allow for that in the probability distribution- and this will alter the ensemble behavior.

But the base behavior is the base behavior- the environment is added in. And no environmental influence is necessary to see the complexity of ensemble behavior emerge from the chaos of individual interaction.

So how does this fit with biological evolution? Well, first, let's consider that if there were no environmental considerations, then not all genomes would be viable. Some genetic changes would interfere with an organism's ability to simply live. For example, if the genes that create the heart of a vertebrate during ontogeny are damaged, the animal will not live in any reasonably likely environment; or if the genes that allow the creation of the machinery of transcription are damaged, the embryo will never even get started. These types of mutations are universally fatal; it doesn't matter what the environment is. The question here is, is this a viable organism? Can it simply live? And all that complexity comes simply from the genes. It would not matter whether there was an environment or not; given sufficient time, we would see all viable lifeforms capable of procreating, if there were no environment. The processes of mutation and recombination would guarantee it.

That, I suppose, would be "random" as you seem to me to mean it.

Now, if we add environmental influences, then adaptation to the environment becomes a factor. Furthermore, we add competition, cooperation, predation, and all those other things that cause the organisms to coevolve; and asteroid strikes and Milankovitch cycles and all those other things that cause the environment to change separate from the effects of other organisms. And because of this, it would be incorrect to state that "evolution is random;" only those organisms not only simply viable and capable of reproducing, but those capable of surviving in this environment are now replicated.

Now, as far as I can tell, you mash these two sets of considerations together. But to a physical scientist, they are separate; the division may be hazy, but there are certainly regions where it is clear that this mutation will affect the organism's viability or ability to reproduce no matter the environment, where as that mutation will affect only the organism's interaction with the environment without affecting its viability or ability to reproduce.

Therefore, the complexity does not need the environment to manifest. The complexity is not the result of the environment; instead, the environment is a restraint upon the possible organisms that are capable of surviving to reproduce, and the complexity is reduced by its influence.

Would you define this "phenomena" that produces order as "random"?
Yes.

What I want to know is in physics and statistics would it make sense to define the "force" that brings order in terms of randomness? Or to call it random?
It is an inevitable consequence of the fact that the individual interactions are constrained by probabilities. If they were not, then we would see true chaos; but these constraints at the level of the interaction have inevitable effects on the ensemble behavior, and that leads to complexity. Without a great deal of mathematics, or empirical investigation, these complex ensemble behaviors are often difficult or impossible to predict. They are, however, ubiquitous, if not omnipresent.

Calling a system showing this type of complex, constrained behavior "random" in the ordinary sense of the word is wrong; that is, in the sense of "disorderly." It is not disorderly at all; anyone looking at the ensemble behavior will tell you it is not.

Is it meaningful to define that which brings order to the randomness to build complexity as being random in itself?
No, but selection is not the force that builds the complexity. The complexity is inherent in the probability distribution functions of the underlying interactions; given an ensemble of these interactions, we can predict the behavior, albeit not without a great deal of effort.

underlying We all agree that order can come from chaos and randomness. But as to the aspects that facilitate this order--how do you distinguish the random components in this "order bringer" from the randomness it acts upon? Or do you? [/quote]Mathematically. It arises of itself, not as a result of anything but the underlying probability distribution functions and the kinds and characters of the interactions.

How would you or how did Dawkins' communicate this so that you understood the difference between randomness that is acted upon and the randomness involved in the forces that cull from (or bring order to) the randomness?
I'd need to go back and read his description to fully recall; I cannot tell you for certain whether he differentiated between these two, but to the best of my recollection he did not.

Because that is the answer to the question isn't it. I really don't think I'm missing any of the definitions of random or why one could call evolution random.
I think you have missed the distinction between order that arises simply from the underlying probability distribution functions, and order that arises from interaction with the environment; and while the first is implicit in the general conception of "random" as used in the physical sciences, the second is not.

I'm really just trying to show why biologists think it's misleading and uninformative to categorize natural selection (the order imposer) with the same terminology as used in describing mutation (which is not even truly random in the strictest sense of the word.) Biologists do this because the many definitions of random make such phraseology ripe for abuse. It makes people go off on tangential semantic circles instead of just understanding the basics. And truly, it's this confusion that makes people think "evolution is impossible". But evolution is easy to understand. Finding the right terminology to convey it's basic premises without opening oneself up for semantic shenanigans is difficult as this thread beautifully illustrates.
I think that you've totally missed the point; I can't say much better for myself, until this post. We've been talking at cross purposes; but that's more my fault than yours. I can only plead that I had not considered the detailed underpinnings enough to realize fully that what I was talking about was not due to the environment.

What you need to understand is that this is the way that physical science thinks about randomness, so to say to a physical scientist, "evolution is not random," is totally non-informative. You are (and I was) lumping the environment together with the ensemble behavior, and that's wrong. That's not how it works. I think this is why I and others said biologists don't understand what random means; I think it's a common error.

Surely there must be a way to convey "that which brings order" so that it is not confused with that which it is bringing order to.
But which "that" are you referring to? The low-level constraints (probability distribution), or the high-level constraints (environment)?

A way that satisfies even the randomites--but is clear...and not subject to the "philosophy of science" and semantic obfuscation.
It is, as I said, a matter of terminology, and a complete understanding of the situation.

In any case, I hope the randomites understand how difficult this particular task is... From a biologists perspective, calling evolution random fails to convey that which brings order to the randomness--it allows for the creation mischaracterization of evolution and makes the concept of complexity from chance look unfathomable and an "intelligent designer" seem more plausible. Whatever words you use to describe evolution...if someone wants to know about the non-random parts or how the order "evolves"--use whatever words you would use to describe how complexity evolves from any sort of randomness.
Mmfff. I have to get back to work. I'll deal with this later.
 
Emergent behaviour?




What about the total score on a pair of dice?


What about the population geneticist's definition of random as probabilistic, "within people of west african descent, there is a greater probability of finding sicle cell anaemi, than those of nordic descent". The selection pressure about that individual trait was different, which gave rise to the different prevalances, but the actual selection of those who had the trait was random, they were just less likely to be killed before sucessful reproduction (offspring surviving to adulthood...) by one of the biggest killers. They still were highly likely to be killed by others.


Define random how most other disciplines use it, and indeed how many evolutionary biologists at least sometimes use it, then tell the cretinists that if they can't understand what random means, a better word could be "probabilistic".

I would prefer to say that it is constrained by the surviving gene pool. The selection of the reproducing iorganisms is heavily influenced (modulated) by chance. "Boundry conditions" if you want to speak math...

Nonrandom, or "determined" means that given identical starting conditions, identical outcomes would always occur. This is not the case in evolution.

So what is the force that creates emerging behavior? The total score on a pair of dice can certainly be described on a probability distribution...but I wouldn't describe the total score as random.

And in population genetics we'll use probability distributions but I have never heard the term random used to apply to anything relating to a probability distribution except in terms of more or less "random" (standard deviations).
In genetic counseling you speak of the probability so that they can select options. The selection is not random, but determined by the varying probabilities.

You are speaking of identical genomes as if they confer identical "fitness", but the environment acts on the genomes from day one. If a lion is going to eat one of two identical twins--something in the physical environment will be responsible for the selection of one twin over the other. And whatever that is--THAT makes the situation not identical. This this weird human thing where we want to define the "most fit" by some characteristic we see as fit--but in genetics, the only fitness that matters is the fitness of distributing copies of yourself. (By yourself I'm referring to DNA). Just as the only fitness that matters for the evolution of this thread is the words that do appear on this thread (they are selected). It's irrelevant to understanding the evolution of this thread or evolution in general to know that some "fitter" posters could have responded, but didn't because they never saw this thread or whatever.

I maintain, that with identical starting conditions (and I mean identical in the genomes and environmentally)--you would have the same results. You are describing organisms having identical genomes--but their environment is not identical--one ant gets stepped on, the other doesn't. Had the other ant been stepped on, he would have been removed from the gen pool too since nothing in the genome confers an advantage to being stepped on. You are saying the inputs are identical, but they are not. If you bounce a ball against the wall repeatedly and all inputs are the same including everything in the environment, then the ball will bounce predictably. And I maintain that the same is true of evolution. Or if it's not, we can never know. Because what you are describing is two organisms that are not receiving identical inputs from the environment. This is superfluous in understanding natural selection and/or the non-random aspects of evolution. It's tangential. By that definition this thread is random and all evolving things are random...as are all processes--because I can imagine examples that impact environmentally that effect the outcome.

I think Dawkins and the Berkeley site and talk origins have been extremely successful in conveying these ideas to most people. Moreover, I think that anyone who understands the answers understand the answer to the OP enough to say that it's a bad question, at best. I've spent pages explaining definitions with links to biological websites and dictionaries. I prefer to explain evolution as "random (relatively) mutation coupled with "natural selection" which selects from the randomness". I do not confuse the random components of natural selection with the process itself, because it's tangential and confuses understanding. If mutations are the disorder and evolution is the emerging properties...then natural selection is the force behind the emerging properties. As, such, biologists would be careful to not confuse the two aspects of evolution by using the same terminology to describe both.
 
You are speaking of identical genomes as if they confer identical "fitness", but the environment acts on the genomes from day one. If a lion is going to eat one of two identical twins--something in the physical environment will be responsible for the selection of one twin over the other. And whatever that is--THAT makes the situation not identical.
yes it is the environment that makes the selection, but this is the random aspect of the selection.
I maintain, that with identical starting conditions (and I mean identical in the genomes and environmentally)--you would have the same results.

So, given all the conditions on earth 8-million (or so) years ago Humanity and Chimps were inevitable?
 

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