What evidence is there for evolution being non-random?

We are extremely confident when saying that their fitness is not random because randomly distributed fitness values would not have any relation to any traits.

This is completely accurate. If one were to give a precise definition of "fitness", it would be something like "the probability that a gene will be passed to the next generation." A gene is "fit" if it creates some trait within an individual that makes it more likely to be passed on, by making the organism more likely to survive, breed, or breed more often. (Or making individuals who share that gene do those things. See "The Selfish Gene".)

But saying the fitness is not random is like saying the probabilty of rolling a 6 on a six sided die is not random. It isn't. It's equal to 1/6. The value of the die roll is random. The probability of a particular outcome is not.
 
articulett said:
The five propositions below seem to be the most common misconceptions based on a Creationist straw-man version of evolution. If you hear anyone making any of them, chances are excellent that they don't know enough about the real theory of evolution to make informed opinions about it.

* Evolution has never been observed.
* Evolution violates the 2nd law of thermodynamics.
* There are no transitional fossils.
* The theory of evolution says that life originated, and evolution proceeds, by random chance.
* Evolution is only a theory; it hasn't been proved.

You could have fun with these.

#1. Darwin's finches, and their beaks, for example (hey I'm an engineer and I can think of at least one example, or the mating strategies of the side-blotched lizard...

#2. No, just as life itself doesn't violate this. local entropy devcrease.

#3. Where does one start with this, every so often a new transitional fossil does get found (feathered dinosaur fossils for example)

#4. Not blind chance. I like their poker analogy. What are the odds of getting a fifteen royal flushes if the all the low cards have been culled from the pack in previous dealing? (You can probably can tell that I don't know the rules of poker...)

#5. And... see points 1 to 4. it is a theory with supporting evidence.

I also like the idea odf a stupid/malicious designer who designed the human birth canal, the human appendix, the mamalian retina, and many other glories of natural engineering, which are easiest to understand if one can accept that they evolved from different structures...

What about all the really nice paresites, e.g. the ichumen wasp.
 
You'll get no help from a mathematician. To a mathematician, selection is random. There is one sense of the word "random" in use within mathematics, and in that sense, selection is random.

What can happen is that even a random process can have outcomes which have probabilities so nearly 0 or 1 that one could argue whether it even makes sense to describe that outcome using random variables.

FWIW: I remain just as happy with the two week old description as I was when I made it.

Final thought for this post: It's quite easy to remember how to talk when describing evolution. When using the word "theory" it is important to use the precise, technical definition used by scientists or mathematicians, and avoid the use of the commonly understood layman's definition. The layman's definition is very misleading. When using the word "random", it is important to only use the layman's definition. The precise description used by mathematicians and scientists (at least those in the "hard" sciences where mathematical models are common) is misleading.

So what do you think about describing evolution as a "stochastic" instead of "random"?

It is important to note here that "random" and "stochastic" are being used here and elsewhere in my posts in this thread as synonyms in so far as the share, and only one, definition. In other words, I use "random" to describe evolution only in the sense that "random" means "[o]f or relating to a type of circumstance or event that is described by a probability distribution" and I use "stochastic" only in the sense that "stochastic" means "nvolving or containing a random variable or variables" or "nvolving chance or probability". Thus, I say I am using "random" and "stochastic" synonymously, I do not mean that "stochastic" means "[h]aving no specific pattern, purpose, or objective" or any other of the definitions of random. I am therefore not equivocating, obfuscating, or using a meaning less definition when I say that "random" and "stochastic" are synonyms in the context of this discussion.
 
From a review of Behe's book by Sean Carroll, the eminent microbiologist and science writer.

Behe, a professor of biochemistry at Lehigh University, has found an audience among various flavors of creationists who find Darwinian evolution incompatible with their religious views and see scientific validation in Behe's claims. Clearly, this book's main audience would be that constituency, although they will find some parts very discomfiting. For instance, Behe explicitly accepts the ability of random mutation and selection to account for the variation within and differences between closely related species (but not higher taxa such as vertebrate classes). He also accepts (as he has before) the 4.5-billion-year age of Earth and that we share a common ancestor with chimpanzees. That certainly won't go over well in some camps.

The problem is what Behe asserts Darwinian evolution can't do: produce more "complex" changes than those that have enabled humans to battle malaria or allowed malarial parasites to evade the drugs we throw at them. Behe's main argument rests on the assertion that two or more simultaneous mutations are required for increases in biochemical complexity and that such changes are, except in rare circumstances, beyond the limit of evolution. He concludes that "most mutations that built the great structures of life must have been nonrandom." In short, God is a genetic engineer, somehow designing changes in DNA to make biochemical machines and higher taxa.

But to arrive at this conclusion, Behe relies on invalid assertions about how genes and proteins evolve and how proteins interact, and he completely ignores a huge amount of experimental data that directly contradicts his faulty premises. Unfortunately, these errors are of a technical nature and will be difficult for lay readers, and even some scientists (those unfamiliar with molecular biology and evolutionary genetics), to detect. Some people will be hoodwinked. My goal here is to point out the critical flaws in Behe's key arguments and to guide readers toward some references that illustrate why what he alleges to be beyond the limits of Darwinian evolution falls well within its demonstrated powers.

Behe's chief error is minimizing the power of natural selection to act cumulatively as traits or molecules evolve stepwise from one state to another via intermediates. Behe states correctly that in most species two adaptive mutations occurring instantaneously at two specific sites in one gene are very unlikely and that functional changes in proteins often involve two or more sites. But it is a non sequitur to leap to the conclusion, as Behe does, that such multiple-amino acid replacements therefore can't happen. Multiple replacements can accumulate when each single amino acid replacement affects performance, however slightly, because selection can act on each replacement individually and the changes can be made sequentially.

Behe begrudgingly allows that only "rarely, several mutations can sequentially add to each other to improve an organism's chances of survival." Rarely? This, of course, is the everyday stuff of evolution. Examples of cumulative selection changing multiple sites in evolving proteins include tetrodotoxin resistance in snakes (3), the tuning of color vision in animals (4), cefotaxime antibiotic resistance in bacteria (5), and pyrimethamine resistance in malarial parasites (6)--a notable omission given Behe's extensive discussion of malarial drugresistance.

Behe seems to lack any appreciation of the quantitative dimensions of molecular and trait evolution. He appears to think of the functional features of proteins in qualitative terms, as if binding or catalysis were all or nothing rather than a broad spectrum of affinities or rates. Therefore, he does not grasp the fundamental reality of a mutational path that proteins follow in evolving new properties.

Very simple calculations indicate how easily such motifs evolve at random. If one assumes an average length of 400 amino acids for proteins and equal abundance of all amino acids, any given two-amino acid motif is likely to occur at random in every protein in a cell. (There are 399 dipeptide motifs in a 400-amino acid protein and 20 mult 20 = 400 possible dipeptide motifs.) Any specific three-amino acid motif will occur once at random in every 20 proteins and any four-amino acid motif will occur once in every 400 proteins. That means that, without any new mutations or natural selection, many sequences that are identical or close matches to many interaction motifs already exist. New motifs can arise readily at random, and any weak interaction can easily evolve, via random mutation and natural selection, to become a strong interaction (9). Furthermore, any pair of interacting proteins can readily recruit a third protein, and so forth, to form larger complexes. Indeed, it has been demonstrated that new protein interactions (10) and protein networks (11) can evolve fairly rapidly and are thus well within the limits of evolution.
...
For instance, Behe once wrote, "if random evolution is true, there must have been a large number of transitional forms between the Mesonychid [a whale ancestor] and the ancient whale. Where are they?" (12). He assumed such forms would not or could not be found, but three transitional species were identified by paleontologists within a year of that statement. In Darwin's Black Box, he posited that genes for modern complex biochemical systems, such as blood clotting, might have been "designed billions of years ago and have been passed down to the present … but not 'turned on'." This is known to be genetically impossible because genes that aren't used will degenerate, but there it was in print. And Behe's argument against the evolution of flagella and the immune system have been dismantled in detail (13, 14) and new evidence continues to emerge (15), yet the same old assertions for design reappear here as if they were uncontested.



To me, mijo's arguments sound exactly like Behe's. I mean he doesn't go so far as to way it couldn't have happened randomly...but he goes out of his way to characterize evolution in the same way Behe does. If people don't believe bottom up design can happen because of such obfuscation...then they cannot understand evolution. Dennett refers to selection as similar to a series of cranes ratcheting up genomes.

Is evolution stochastic or deterministic? Random or non-random? Are these good terms to use? Does it help people understand evolution? Because such wording and the abuse of the word "fit" is a well documented part of the wedge strategy to confuse the issue. I don't know if Behe, Klein, or Mijo are aware of their logic snafus and seemingly purposeful way of minimilizing or not understanding natural selection. Maybe they really believe what they say. But as far as I can tell, none of them are saying anything and they miss the simplicity of the principle while playing semantic games with hypotheticals, exceptions, ambiguous wording, and so forth.

Mijo's argument is similar to Behe's. He's just not admitting the part about intelligent design. He's playing a semantic game so he can believe that scientists think this is all due to random chance or "stochastic processes" or non-uniform probabilities or whatever other vagaries he's deemed important.

Evolution fact. You can understand it. You can't discredit it by claiming it makes no sense to you. The only thing that leads to understanding about the facts is clear, simple, language. Details can come later. There are lots of ways to describe it...and lots of ways that it's not random (or that it would be misleading to define it as such.) But mijos assertion that because identical alleles can be selected or not selected in different ways including random acts--This makes the evolutionary process stochastic as opposed to "deterministic". I suspect if the input regarding evolution was as known as weather input (which mijo says is "deterministic"), then the outcome would be as predictable as weather...and thus deterministic--but I hate philosophy and semantic games.

We do know the input and output of every dead organism we can get DNA from...it's whole evolutionary history is in it's genes. We can predict that if we have DNA from any life form, we can tell how far back in time it shared a common ancestor with any other life form. We can SEE the mutations involved in speciation. So how is evolution more random than weather? And what does weather have to do with birth, death, and reproduction rates?

So, Mijo has boiled the answer to his question down to the following: evolution is a "stochastic process"....since you can't always tell if two organisms that are equally fit (per mijos definition of fit) will have the same number of grandchildren. But what the hell does that have to do with the topic question?

How is that more informative than all the other explanations including the one calling selection the "opposite" of random?

Life wasn't preplanned. It most definitely was cobbled together through time and designed from the bottom up...just as the internet is "designed". Replicators beget more replicators. Non-replicators die out and are pruned from the "process" via natural selection. It's so simple, and yet... mijo can't seem to clarify the process in any coherent or meaningful way...just like Behe.

Yes, in essence we exist because of "random chance". But evolution is not driven by random chance. It is driven by natural selection...the elimination rounds ever honing and paving the way the best replicators. No intelligent Design Proponent over 40 seems able to grasp this, no matter how intelligent he is.
 
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How does describing natural selection as "random" or a "stochastic process" minimize its important?
 
So what do you think about describing evolution as a "stochastic" instead of "random"?

I was making fun of people who say we can't use random, or in general that we have to say one word instead of another. The words "theory" and "random" have multiple entries in the dictionary, and its ok to use any of them as long as you are clear what you mean.

As for a direct answer to your question, it makes no difference. They're synonyms, although it is true that "stochastic" is somewhat less likely to be misunderstood, so there's a marginal improvement.

I generally get pretty bent out of shape when someone tells me I have to use one word or another based not on what it means, but what someone might think it means. I still say "niggardly" sometimes.
 
I was making fun of people who say we can't use random, or in general that we have to say one word instead of another. The words "theory" and "random" have multiple entries in the dictionary, and its ok to use any of them as long as you are clear what you mean.

As for a direct answer to your question, it makes no difference. They're synonyms, although it is true that "stochastic" is somewhat less likely to be misunderstood, so there's a marginal improvement.

I generally get pretty bent out of shape when someone tells me I have to use one word or another based not on what it means, but what someone might think it means. I still say "niggardly" sometimes.

The explanation in the rest of the post wasn't necessarily directed at you; I just thought it was a good idea to once again clarify what I meant when I said random, which is clearly not what Behe and other IDist mean when they say "random".
 
How does describing natural selection as "random" or a "stochastic process" minimize its important?

You already pointed out that even your statistical dictionaries did not agree on the definition of random. And I don't think you even have agreement on your use of a "stochastic process"--natural selection is sure unlike all the examples of "stocahstic processes" given.

You have already said that calling evolution non-random is obfuscating and misleading--well, calling it stochastic is similarly obfuscating and misleading. The fact that random events can influence selection is no more important to the definition of evolution or the answer to your question than the facts that mutations aren't truly random (a fact you seem very incurious about given your supposed rigor in defining things and the loose way you come to define natural selection as "stochastic".

You definition does not convey the incremental nature of natural selection. It uses ambiguous language to say the following: evolution is not random, but rather stochastic, because sometimes more fit organisms die and sometimes less fit organism live and according to the definition of stochastic that I am using, this fits the definition. It's true-ish, I guess. But it's no more relevant to the discussion than the fact that evolution is a 4 syllable word.

The question was about the non-random aspects of evolution...that sounds like a request for the reasons why scientists would say that selection is the opposite of random or that it doesn't mean anything to call the entire process of evolution random.

So, answer your own question-- what are the non-random aspects of evolution? Your answer seems to imply that there are none. Which is fine...but that means you asked a question that you would only accept one answer too-- your answer. It doesn't jibe with anything anyone in biology would say. It doesn't convey any useful information. It's indistinguishable from Behe's blather. I don't think that even the randomites will say there aren't any non-random aspects to evolution or that it is useful to convey evolution as a "stochastic process".

The bottom line is that you are indistinguishable from Behe. How do you think that what you are saying is any more explanatory and useful than what he said in the posts I quoted. I just don't see the difference. And he is a KNOWN intelligent design proponent.
 
So how are the events of natural selection non-random "sometimes more fit organisms die and sometimes less fit organisms live", articulett?

That's like saying that a coin toss in non-random because sometimes it turns up heads and sometimes it turns up tails.

ETA: You only want me to be indistinguishable from Behe, because you would rather ridicule me that engage in intelligent discourse.
 
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So how are the events of natural selection non-random "sometimes more fit organisms die and sometimes less fit organisms live", articulett?

That's like saying that a coin toss in non-random because sometimes it turns up heads and sometimes it turns up tails.

Nope--that's the kind of random that is more like the randomness of mutation--single events with equal probability unconnected to the past or future.

Selection would be if every time the penny came up heads, you'd get to keep it, and every time it came it tails it would be discarded. You would have accumulating wealth through time via selection from the random coin tosses.
Your wealth would evolve through the selection process--not randomly...even though the coins would be tossed at random.
 
So how are the events of natural selection non-random "sometimes more fit organisms die and sometimes less fit organisms live", articulett?

That's like saying that a coin toss in non-random because sometimes it turns up heads and sometimes it turns up tails.

ETA: You only want me to be indistinguishable from Behe, because you would rather ridicule me that engage in intelligent discourse.


No, truly, your explanations and arguments make no more sense to me than Behe. He sort of sounds like he makes sense (with similar scientific credentials) but peoples' understanding of his point gets murkier as you go. And he abuses the word random and doesn't seem to be able to absorb the incremental part of natural selection. He defines the theory of evolution very similarly to the way you do. I'm not sure if he ever used the word "stochastic", but he just seems to go out of the way not to understand the non-random aspects of evolution, namely--natural selection. Plus he doesn't absorb info or show any interest in any articles that could negate whatever nebulous point he is trying to make (just like kleinman)--

Scientists are usually eager to understand more. Intelligent Design proponents show a profound lack of curiosity on the subjects they are supposedly interested in and get stuck on a point or semantic issue that has been clarified long ago. That's what Kleinman does. That's what you are doing. You treat the people who actually take time to answer your question worse --not better for their time and effort when it leads to a conclusion don't want to hear.

It's not really the word choice it's the lack of meaning...the way it can always being boiled down to a restatement of creationist conundrum #4.

So, after all these pages, how would you answer your OP question?
 
Evolution by natural selection is by definition a stochastic process, because there are two possibilities for each individual in a population:

  1. it passes on its genetic material to the next generation
  2. it doesn't pass on its genetic material to the next generation

A greater number of fitter individuals pass on their genes to the next generation whereas smaller number of less fit individuals pass on their genes to the next generation. Therefore, the frequency of fitter genes increases in the population while the frequency of less fit genes decreases in the population. However, given a specific fitter or less fit individual, you cannot say with absolute certainty that said individual will or will not pass its genes to the next generation. You can only say that on average any fitter individual will pass on its genes more often than a less fit individual.
 
Evolution by natural selection is by definition a stochastic process, because there are two possibilities for each individual in a population:

  1. it passes on its genetic material to the next generation
  2. it doesn't pass on its genetic material to the next generation

A greater number of fitter individuals pass on their genes to the next generation whereas smaller number of less fit individuals pass on their genes to the next generation. Therefore, the frequency of fitter genes increases in the population while the frequency of less fit genes decreases in the population. However, given a specific fitter or less fit individual, you cannot say with absolute certainty that said individual will or will not pass its genes to the next generation. You can only say that on average any fitter individual will pass on its genes more often than a less fit individual.

Better. But it is unnecessary to use the word stochastic and all of the stuff after "however...". But I realize your goal is to answer the question regarding "how is evolution non-random", and you think "stochastic" does that.

You could add that chance elements play a role along the way, but you have no real definition of "fit". Fitness in reference to genes are genes that code for traits that give their vector qualities that help them pass elimination rounds--help them get "selected"...or at least they do not remove them from the "gene pool". It has nothing to do with how you seem to be defining fit-
Identical genes do not make entities identically fit. DNA is inherited as a package deal--not really on a per gene basis. When you use the word "fit" you are getting the definition backwards:

Sections of DNA that confer an overall survival or reproductive advantage to the possessor are preferentially passed on to future generations. Mutations that make an offspring unable to reproduce cannot be passed to future generations. (The former are fitter; the latter the least fit.)

I am not sure how the word "random", "non-random" or "stochastic" fits into that explanation... To me, that is natural selection--the way genomes accrue "complexity" through generations--akin to the way you accrue wealth in the penny example above. Although the penny tosses are random, the accumulation of wealth is not. And although mutations are random, the complexity built from the fittest mutations is not.

There are some gene mutations that we can say are absolutely incompatible with life--we can predict that nobody with trisomy one can survive to be born. We can predict many Mendalian traits--both the odds and with exactitude via amnio. We can use amnio to predict the sex. In this way, genetics is deterministic. But these are tangential examples--as are your hypothetical exceptions to the rule. Fitness is only what IS successfully passed on--not what you think fitness is.
 
A concrete example:

So a storm hits the coast of South America, and two finches get blown out to sea. Most of the finches are smart enough to stay in their nests, but these ones, for whatever reason, are unable to stay in their nests. They are not what we would call "fit finches". Lucky for them, there are a set of islands off the coast of South America - the Galapagos Islands. These two finches make it out there and do very well, eventually populating every island and their descendants gradually evolve many types of beaks to take advantage of various ecological niches.

To me this is just dumb luck. I can't think of there being any kind of selection filter that makes sense here. Just stupid or weak but lucky birds, who went on to be a big part of the ecosystem in this small part of the world.

Our own Mitochondrial Eve lived about 140,000 years ago. Who knows how often and in which circumstances she just "got lucky" (in either sense of the term).

On another note, it seems that we might all be accused of sounding like Behe, because, as Articulett posted above, he claims that the earth is 4.5 billion years old and that man has a common ancestor with chimpanzees. So let's drop the comparisons to Behe.
 
Sections of DNA that confer an overall survival or reproductive advantage to the possessor are preferentially passed on to future generations. Mutations that make an offspring unable to reproduce cannot be passed to future generations. (The former are fitter; the latter the least fit.)

[...]

There are some gene mutations that we can say are absolutely incompatible with life--we can predict that nobody with trisomy one can survive to be born. We can predict many Mendalian traits--both the odds and with exactitude via amnio. We can use amnio to predict the sex. In this way, genetics is deterministic. But these are tangential examples--as are your hypothetical exceptions to the rule. Fitness is only what IS successfully passed on--not what you think fitness is.
(bold emphasis in the original; bold red emphasis mine)

Again, articulett, this is a circular definition: what is fit is passed on and what is passed on is fit.

I suggest you come up with a better definition of fitness.
 
A concrete example:

So a storm hits the coast of South America, and two finches get blown out to sea. Most of the finches are smart enough to stay in their nests, but these ones, for whatever reason, are unable to stay in their nests. They are not what we would call "fit finches". Lucky for them, there are a set of islands off the coast of South America - the Galapagos Islands. These two finches make it out there and do very well, eventually populating every island and their descendants gradually evolve many types of beaks to take advantage of various ecological niches.

To me this is just dumb luck. I can't think of there being any kind of selection filter that makes sense here. Just stupid or weak but lucky birds, who went on to be a big part of the ecosystem in this small part of the world.

Our own Mitochondrial Eve lived about 140,000 years ago. Who knows how often and in which circumstances she just "got lucky" (in either sense of the term).

On another note, it seems that we might all be accused of sounding like Behe, because, as Articulett posted above, he claims that the earth is 4.5 billion years old and that man has a common ancestor with chimpanzees. So let's drop the comparisons to Behe.

Yes, the finches were "lucky" if living and producing descendants is lucky. But what happened after they got to the island and all the different beak forms that evolved was due to selection--the birds with the best beaks for getting at food sources than competitors passed on the genes that would come to define the beak shape that was the best for that environment. The nectar eaters grew long curved beaks; and the nut crackers grew parrot like nut-cracking beaks.

And yes, our most recent common ancestor could not know that he would be responsible for all the future humans on the planet...and yet he was. But not by chance alone. Chance played a role--but natural selection which accrues the "fitness" in genomes through time also played a role. (As an aside our most recent common ancestor would be most likely be a male living 60,000 years ago...a most recent common female ancestor would be his mom--our most recent common female ancestor traced entirely through female lines would be mitochondrial DNA (mt eve) who lived much further back in time than our most common male ancestor.)

Yes, it is a random series of "if not for X--everything that followed would not exist or be completely different." The first time a prokaryotic cell merged with another prokaryot to form the first eukaryotic cell was a huge time in evolutionary history--a giant leap forwards. But that was the first step of a branching...like the first time two computers were hooked together and the spawning of connections after that. Although random events influence every step of the way-- Selection acts more like hands shaping clay...molding what a species becomes through forces from many directions. I just think it is ambiguous to call the entire process random. It does not clarify between the randomness of "mutation" and the selective forces that mold what a species evolves into or dies out from.

And, as mentioned earlier, Behe is a proponent of "intelligent design"--he accepts some premises of evolution begrudgingly, but he does not marvel at them or relish the fact that we can know them because he does not want science to have the answers. He advocated obfuscating evolutionary understanding so that he can insert his "intelligent designer" into the murky areas. Consequently he will say things that imply some sort of meaning while having no real information value. And he will actually say that he is not a creationist, because he wants to be taken seriously as a scientist and promote the "science" of "intelligent design". Everything he says elicits lesser understanding, not more. And he is most definitely an abuser of the word "random" to obfuscate understanding about natural selection. To me, Mijo is doing the same.
 
(bold emphasis in the original; bold red emphasis mine)

Again, articulett, this is a circular definition: what is fit is passed on and what is passed on is fit.

I suggest you come up with a better definition of fitness.

No, really--that is all fitness means in reference to DNA and the selfish gene. Does it get itself copied? Survival of the fittest was not a term Darwin used. It makes no sense to describe anything as more or less fit because it has to be more or less fit in connection to something else.

Evolution is an explanation like gravity.

You are inserting tangential definitions like your meaning or some abstract meaning of fitness in order to say sometimes the more fit die while the less fit live.

A chain letter gets itself copied because it promises rewards to those who copy it and punishment to those who do not. That gives it a survival advantage--a "fitness" for being passed on. It has nothing to do with more or less fit except as to how much it gets copied, added to, built upon, etc. The same with DNA. Both are information that pass through vectors. Both have features which allow the information to evolve or die out. Those that stick around and the longest and pass on the most info. are the most fit of that evolving system. Microbes evolve right along with their hosts or symbiots...along with their food sources and those for whom they are food--
In evolution, fitness refers only to the sections of DNA that get themselves copied the most and stick around the longest in the miasma. All the organisms in any system will die--but only the "fittest" DNA will live on in other organisms.

I know it sounds circular, but it is because you are using a bad word yet again. You are using fit so you can use your example to misunderstand the basic principle. Your example allows you to define the process as "stochastic". But it is sort of like you are saying..."things will fall at the same rate in a vaccuum, but they may not fall at the same rate when there is air resistance--because you can not predict the rate fall...gravity is stochastic by definition."

Really. That is what you are doing. You are bending over backwards to make natural selection a "stochastic process" so that you can claim there is no evidence for evolution being non-random. There is lots--or at least lots that show your definition to be uninformative. Useless in regards to your question or understanding evolution. There is no evidence that you will accept that will allow you to conclude that evolution itself should not be summed up as a random or stochastic process. But there is tons of evidence that keeps any biologist from doing so.
 
I know it sounds circular, but it is because you are using a bad word yet again. You are using fit so you can use your example to misunderstand the basic principle. Your example allows you to define the process as "stochastic". But it is sort of like you are saying..."things will fall at the same rate in a vaccuum, but they may not fall at the same rate when there is air resistance--because you can not predict the rate fall...gravity is stochastic by definition."

Really. That is what you are doing. You are bending over backwards to make natural selection a "stochastic process" so that you can claim there is no evidence for evolution being non-random. There is lots--or at least lots that show your definition to be uninformative. Useless in regards to your question or understanding evolution. There is no evidence that you will accept that will allow you to conclude that evolution itself should not be summed up as a random or stochastic process. But there is tons of evidence that keeps any biologist from doing so.

I commend you on yet another mischaracterization of my argument. Identical objects fall identically whether they are in a vacuum or not. When an object is in a vacuum, its relative motion in the direction of the gravitational field is only determined by the gravitational constant and its initial velocity. To determine its final position (and therefore its absolute motion), you also need to know its initial position. In a fluid (and air is a fluid), you need to know additional quantities such as the viscosity of the fluid and the shape and mass of the object. The point is if you know and they are identical for two different objects, those two object will behave identically, making the system deterministic.

With the identical individuals that we have been discussing with respect to evolution, however, there are two possibilities of how they can "behave"; they can:
  1. pass on their genes to the next generation

  2. not pass on their genes to the next generation
The fact that individuals with advantageous genes don't always pass their advantageous genes on to the next generation and the individuals with don't always not pass their disadvantageous genes to the next generation means that natural selection is inherently based on probability and therefore stochastic.
 
And again, articulett:

It is a circular (and therefore meaningless) definition.

Fittest and fitter are superlatives...they have to be more fit than something else in some way. The only fitness that matters in evolution is how well does any strand of DNA copy itself and get into vectors that carry it into the future. If you can't understand that...don't use the word fit. You seem to be making up your own definition "fittest according to mijo". It's confusing your explanation...just as much as the word random does.

It isn't circular, you are just saying it backwards. Look at the chain letter example. A chain letter gets passed on. Some do so better than others. Some never get passed on because they weren't sent to gullible people. The same is true of DNA. When we use the term fitter in regards to DNA, which we do not do around creationists, we will make sure that we are just talking about fitness in regard to ability to get passed on. The fittest chain letter gets spread widely...so does the fittest urban legend...that has nothing to do with any sort of fitness you are describing. Some plants evolved awful tastes to keep away consumers--that isn't part of your fitness description. Some animals evolved poison which made the predators who eat them evolve resistance to that poison. Bacteria evolve fitness that make them increasingly resistant to various antibiotics. But none of this is fitness as you seem to want to describe it. Fitter must be fitter than something. Fitter bacteria are more resistant to various antibiotics--they live, while others die.

But you are turning this into a semantics game. Quit using the word fitter unless you say fitter than what. Fittest of what? Fittest at what?
 

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