What "chance" means?

[unsleep]

I need to prove that something exists...

how can i do it?

Somebody told me i need to get more than 50% if there is two posible options... like when you throw a coin but...

does a coin "more lucky" than the "coin itself" if i throw it enough times to get a 100% of the same result?

 

[Salerio]

I want the popcorn franchise

 

[Vorpal]

The first order of business is to get some sleep, obviously. Proving things gets easier that way. Although some mathematicians prefer the "amphetamine brute-forcing" method.

 

[realpaladin]

I need to prove that something exists...

how can i do it?

Somebody told me i need to get more than 50% if there is two posible options... like when you throw a coin but...

does a coin "more lucky" than the "coin itself" if i throw it enough times to get a 100% of the same result?

Yes.

 

[Kid Eager]

This is a good place to start:
http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probabilidad

 

[Dancing David]

I need to prove that something exists...

how can i do it?

Somebody told me i need to get more than 50% if there is two posible options... like when you throw a coin but...

does a coin "more lucky" than the "coin itself" if i throw it enough times to get a 100% of the same result?

It really depends on teh situation.

In the case of a coin, which involves the fairness of the coin, you also have to consider the number of events in a run. If you toss the coin ten times then having 7 of them come up heads in no big deal. If you toss the coin 100 times and seventy of them come up heads that would make me wonder, if you do a run of 1000 and 700 are heads that is suspicious, 10,000 and 7,000 heads: not a fair coin of a fair toss.

That last bit is important as well, making a distinction between fair coin and a fair toss.

Now if you use frequency statistics then you have to have a sample as a base line, you find the mean and the standard deviation, then in your event you want rise above a standard deviation.

 

[Marcus]

I need to prove that something exists...

how can i do it?

Somebody told me i need to get more than 50% if there is two posible options... like when you throw a coin but...

does a coin "more lucky" than the "coin itself" if i throw it enough times to get a 100% of the same result?

If I am to believe your assertion that "only the ignorant answer questions" than I can't answer any of your questions, sorry.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

This is a good place to start:
http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probabilidad

Agreed.

Unsleep, in your (now closed) thread I said the chance of guessing correctly from 4 possible options was 25%. You responded with surprise that I made such a claim without providing proof of it.

The truth is, this is so trivial that it makes me wonder at what level to begin to explain the relationship. Does one start with probability, or with percentages or with fractions... Every schoolchild learns this stuff.

 

[unsleep]

It really depends on teh situation.

In the case of a coin, which involves the fairness of the coin, you also have to consider the number of events in a run. If you toss the coin ten times then having 7 of them come up heads in no big deal. If you toss the coin 100 times and seventy of them come up heads that would make me wonder, if you do a run of 1000 and 700 are heads that is suspicious, 10,000 and 7,000 heads: not a fair coin of a fair toss.

That last bit is important as well, making a distinction between fair coin and a fair toss.

Now if you use frequency statistics then you have to have a sample as a base line, you find the mean and the standard deviation, then in your event you want rise above a standard deviation.

great interesting... thats why meds are tested with placebo and the real drug... thanks!!

 

[unsleep]

Agreed.

Unsleep, in your (now closed) thread I said the chance of guessing correctly from 4 possible options was 25%. You responded with surprise that I made such a claim without providing proof of it.

The truth is, this is so trivial that it makes me wonder at what level to begin to explain the relationship. Does one start with probability, or with percentages or with fractions... Every schoolchild learns this stuff.

This is pretty similar to that typical answer of "here we accomplish the thermodynamics laws"

Its not an answer itself. I did read that text for a job and its more like a religion of faith with a numerical excuse than any true demonstrable thing...

 

[unsleep]

If I am to believe your assertion that "only the ignorant answer questions" than I can't answer any of your questions, sorry.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvQ_qJYZ-7A take a look at this serial

 

[psionl0]

does a coin "more lucky" than the "coin itself" if i throw it enough times to get a 100% of the same result?

i can't make head nor tail out of that question.

 

[Roboramma]

I need to prove that something exists...

Let me give you a practical demonstration:

I will now prove that unsleep's first post in this thread exists.

First, take a look at this:

how can i do it?

Somebody told me i need to get more than 50% if there is two posible options... like when you throw a coin but...

does a coin "more lucky" than the "coin itself" if i throw it enough times to get a 100% of the same result?

Now, if you are not convinced, click on the little arrow at the top right hand side of the top quote in this post.

Any questions?

 

[sphenisc]

Let me give you a practical demonstration:

I will now prove that unsleep's first post in this thread exists.

First, take a look at this:



Now, if you are not convinced, click on the little arrow at the top right hand side of the top quote in this post.

Any questions?

If I turn my computer off does it cease to exist?

 

[EHocking]

If I turn my computer off does it cease to exist?

Only if everyone else at JREF does at the same time...

 

[Jack by the hedge]

This is pretty similar to that typical answer of "here we accomplish the thermodynamics laws"

Its not an answer itself. I did read that text for a job and its more like a religion of faith with a numerical excuse than any true demonstrable thing...

OK. Forget the wikipedia page.

How about this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/ks2bitesize/maths/data/probability/read3.shtml

 

[Pixel42]

Unsleep, in your (now closed) thread I said the chance of guessing correctly from 4 possible options was 25%. You responded with surprise that I made such a claim without providing proof of it.

The truth is, this is so trivial that it makes me wonder at what level to begin to explain the relationship. Does one start with probability, or with percentages or with fractions... Every schoolchild learns this stuff.

I was amazed when I read his response to your post in the closed thread. How can anyone over the age of five need to have it proved to them that the chances of randomly picking the correct answer from four equally likely possibilities is 25%? It's like asking for proof that 1+1=2.

 

[Almo]

Wow. I've seen some basic things argued here, but this takes the cake.