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VP Picks 2012

OK, we're down to the short list, and I'm going to take a chance that it's a real short list, and not a feint. Striking all but T. Pawlenty, R. Portman and P. Ryan.

P. Ryan is the big favorite for the base, and they're all screaming in unison for him to be the choice.

GOP
C. Christie ↑
T. Pawlenty
R. Perry
M. Bachmann
J. Huntsman
R. Santorum
M. Huckabee ↑
M. Pence
P. Ryan
B. Jindal
N. Gingrich
S. Palin ↓
J. Rell ↑
N. Haley ↑
M. Rubio ↑↑↑↓
E. Cantor
C. Rice ↑
R. Paul (le fils) ↑↓
B. McDonnell (Rorschach response to his picture: "trans-vaginal ultrasound")
B. Sandoval
A. West
R. Portman
M. Daniels
K. Ayotte
J. Bush
J. Thune
S. Martinez
B. Sandoval
C. McMorris Rogers

Dem
J. Biden (inc) •
H. Clinton
 
I haven't updated the Intrade odds lately. Here's what the odds were last time:

Puppycow said:
Current odds:
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90482

1. Rob Portman 31.5%
2. Tim Pawlenty 19.0%
3. Marco Rubio 9.5%
4. Paul Ryan 6.9%
5. Bobby Jindal 6.3%
6. John Thune 5.2%
7. Condoleeza Rice 3.5% (Bill Kristol recently refloated a trial balloon about Condi, even though she has repeatedly said that she isn't interested)
8. Kelly Ayotte 3.1%
9. Chris Christie 2.6%
10. Bob McDonnell 2.1%
Click to expand...

And here they are now:

1. Rob Portman 30.5%
2. Paul Ryan 21%
3. Tim Pawlenty 18%
4. Marco Rubio 9.3%

I'll follow hgc's lead and whittle my list down to just the top 4. The rest are kind of long shots.
 
Romney is such a wimp he needs Christie as a useful mouthpiece to call the current Obama Ads the lies they are.

As it's proceeded I'd now prefer Christie over Rubio. Whether Ryan could become an attack dog is unknown; maybe, I suppose.
 
hgc said:
P. Ryan is the big favorite for the base, and they're all screaming in unison for him to be the choice.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I already mentioned the Weekly Standard and National Review. Checking a few more conservative sites reveals the same thing: The Wall Street Journal, RedState.

Still think that Portman's the frontrunner though. Picking Ryan would only be a more articulate male version of Sarah Palin. I don't think it will be Pawlenty because in a choice between "boring white guys" Portman > Pawlenty. I think that Rubio is still an outside possibility. He has his backers. Not picking Rubio means really doing nothing to reduce Obama's advantage with Latinos, which I'm not sure Romney can afford. Maybe he doesn't see it that way though. He wouldn't be a big disappointment for the base either.
 
Puppycow said:
Yeah, I already mentioned the Weekly Standard and National Review. Checking a few more conservative sites reveals the same thing: The Wall Street Journal, RedState.

Still think that Portman's the frontrunner though. Picking Ryan would only be a more articulate male version of Sarah Palin. I don't think it will be Pawlenty because in a choice between "boring white guys" Portman > Pawlenty. I think that Rubio is still an outside possibility. He has his backers. Not picking Rubio means really doing nothing to reduce Obama's advantage with Latinos, which I'm not sure Romney can afford. Maybe he doesn't see it that way though. He wouldn't be a big disappointment for the base either.
Click to expand...

On Morning Joe this morning, Scarborough was shouting to the rafters what a great pick P. Ryan would be, touting his vast experience and smarts. Particularly, he likes recounting how when he (Joe) first came to Congress in 1995, Ryan was a 22-year old staffer who knew more about tax and budget policy than anyone else in the room. He also loves the idea of C. Christy, because what Romney needs now is a street fighter.

What I think he's missing, or discounting, on P. Ryan is two things: First, Romney needs to not be overshadowed by his VP pick. It does him no favors. P. Ryan and C. Christy are both outsized personalities. They're both better suited to running for pres themselves, in 4 or 8 years. Second, P. Ryan is best known for the proposal to kill Medicare. If P. Ryan is the guy, that's going to be a conversational focus.
 
AlBell said:
Romney is such a wimp he needs Christie as a useful mouthpiece to call the current Obama Ads the lies they are.
Click to expand...
I agree but that approach itself becomes a problem. Christie is not in complete control of his yap so he becomes the star attraction as he goes on the attack. Everyone follows him to see who he yells/lectures at next. How big his next bluster will be. Then someone asks, "Hey where's that other guy?"

Not good.
 
Puppycow said:
Yeah, I already mentioned the Weekly Standard and National Review. Checking a few more conservative sites reveals the same thing: The Wall Street Journal, RedState.

Still think that Portman's the frontrunner though. Picking Ryan would only be a more articulate male version of Sarah Palin. I don't think it will be Pawlenty because in a choice between "boring white guys" Portman > Pawlenty. I think that Rubio is still an outside possibility. He has his backers. Not picking Rubio means really doing nothing to reduce Obama's advantage with Latinos, which I'm not sure Romney can afford. Maybe he doesn't see it that way though. He wouldn't be a big disappointment for the base either.
Click to expand...

True. Romney needs to pick somebody who can deliver a swing state. Rubio might be that guy. Portman might be. Pawlenty probably is not. Ryan is a "maybe", but he's been dinged by his budget proposals. Christie's state is not really in play.
 
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I just a news flash that Romney will announce his VP pick tomorrow morning (8/11) at 9:00 ET.

Very odd. Both the day, a Saturday and the olympics are still going on, and the time.

Edit - It's on CNN as well.

This has to be a preemptive move to avoid a leak. I can't see any reason why this would happen at this point.

Why announce this at midnight ET for 9 hours later. Very interesting
 
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Since we may finally find out, may as well make totally wild speculations!

I don't think it'll be Rubio. I think Obama deliberately took Rubio off the table with his deferred deportation action policy a few months back -- something I agree with, but I believe was done largely for tactical reasons.

Won't be Christie. Doesn't buy him anything. Christie has the potential to blow up bigtime once he becomes a national target (and I'm not talking about his weight).

Ryan would be a big gamble. As others have noted you don't want the Veep to upstage your candidate, which he would surely do. Ryan will also take the campaign truly right, rather than the nebulous pandering to hard conservatives going on now, and won't look good in the polls.

I say it's going to be Portman, for the exact same reasons Obama picked Biden back in the day. He's dull but he's reliable, and he may give Romney a better shot at Ohio.

Were I Romney, at this stage of the game, I'd roll the dice and go with Ryan. But I don't think he will. Romney doesn't strike me as a gambler, inspired or otherwise, in any of his endeavors.

Well, to be complete, were I Romney I'd be richer than Midas, and I'd never have run for President in the first place -- rather than run and compromise myself to please a paleolithic GOP infrastructure, I'd bankroll the search for and campaign behind a good candidate. A guy that rich shouldn't have to settle. I have no idea what Romney actually wants.
 
Breaking news: Paul Ryan takes the cake.

NBC News says so, according to campaign sources.
 
Andrea Mitchell on NBC is having a sad about T. Pawlenty. According to her, the former Minn. gov was very upset about being passed over 4 years ago for Sarah Palin. Now he's been overlooked again. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride.

Other news. Tagg Romney delivered the bad news to the 2 also-rans.
 
Congratulations to P. Ryan, member of The House from Wisconsin's 1st CD.

At last, a punching bag who knows how to fight back. This will be fun. Romney will be eclipsed.

GOP
C. Christie ↑
T. Pawlenty
R. Perry
M. Bachmann
J. Huntsman
R. Santorum
M. Huckabee ↑
M. Pence
P. Ryan •
B. Jindal
N. Gingrich
S. Palin ↓
J. Rell ↑
N. Haley ↑
M. Rubio ↑↑↑↓
E. Cantor
C. Rice ↑
R. Paul (le fils) ↑↓
B. McDonnell (Rorschach response to his picture: "trans-vaginal ultrasound")
B. Sandoval
A. West
R. Portman
M. Daniels
K. Ayotte
J. Bush
J. Thune
S. Martinez
B. Sandoval
C. McMorris Rogers

Dem
J. Biden (inc) •
H. Clinton
 
Now Ryan's budget debacle is front and center and will remain so for the rest of the campaign. Let the mud slinging begin!

ETA: Won't another criticism be that Ryan has zip-i-do-dah foreign policy cred? That could be a weak point.

ETA2: No matter what, thanks to hgc for continuing the tradition of candidate vetting threads.

:th:
 
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SezMe said:
Now Ryan's budget debacle is front and center and will remain so for the rest of the campaign. Let the mud slinging begin!
Click to expand...

That was my first thought. This will definitely make things more fun, for me, because I am a dick. But otherwise, I don't see it as a good move.
 
SezMe said:
Now Ryan's budget debacle is front and center and will remain so for the rest of the campaign. Let the mud slinging begin!

ETA: Won't another criticism be that Ryan has zip-i-do-dah foreign policy cred? That could be a weak point.

ETA2: No matter what, thanks to hgc for continuing the tradition of candidate vetting threads.

:th:
Click to expand...

We'll find out what his weaknesses are very soon.
This could be a fiasco of Palinesque proportions! :popcorn1

He's a big fan of Ayn Rand (an atheist!! :eek:) so there's that angle. Anyone know of any really juicy Ayn Rand quotes?

Just yesterday I was reading a couple blogs on the Paul Ryan thing:

How The Right Robbed Romney Of His Running Room (also titled: Conservative Seeks Control of Romney Campaign -- And His Presidency)

Mitt Romney wants to boast about his signature policy achievement — universal health care in Massachusetts — but the right won’t let him.

It’s no secret that Romney has an uneasy alliance with the conservative base. But the movement’s reaction when he nodded at Romneycare wasn’t an isolated freakout about the one issue they disagree on. It was a warning to Romney that he veers from orthodoxy at his peril.
Click to expand...
(Worth reading the rest of it. Forum rules prevent me from posting the whole thing.)

Then there's this from former Bush speechwriter David Frum:
Paul Ryan: Romney's (Near) Worst VP Choice

The clamor you are hearing for Paul Ryan for VP is not about helping the Romney candidacy. It's about controlling the Romney campaign—and ultimately the Romney presidency. It's about forcing a platform on Romney, and then dictating the agenda for that presidency's first year. The platform happens to be suicidal, and the agenda impossible, but that does not matter to the Ryan advocates. They take the old Tammany Hall point of view: "Better to lose an agenda than lose control of the party."

In that sense, the Ryan proposal is a test of Romney's leadership. If he accedes, it's a big surrender of control—and a surrender to many of those who most opposed (and who inwardly continue to dislike) his nomination.
Click to expand...
 
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