• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

VP Picks 2012

hgc said:
At last! I can strike someone from the list. T. Pawlenty says he's taking his hat out of the ring.
http://www.startribune.com/politics/151364125.html?source=error
Click to expand...

Hmm. The punters at Intrade don't seem to have noticed yet.

ETA: After reading the article, I think he is just being coy. He did not say that he would turn the offer down if Mitt makes it. He just wants reporters to stop pestering him with questions about it.
 
Last edited:
Oh well. For C. Rice, it's Condoseeya!

GOP
C. Christie ↑
T. Pawlenty
R. Perry
M. Bachmann
J. Huntsman
R. Santorum
M. Huckabee ↑
M. Pence
P. Ryan
B. Jindal
N. Gingrich
S. Palin ↓
J. Rell ↑
N. Haley ↑
M. Rubio ↑↑↑↓
E. Cantor
C. Rice ↑
R. Paul (le fils) ↑↓
B. McDonnell (Rorschach response to his picture: "trans-vaginal ultrasound")
B. Sandoval
A. West
R. Portman
M. Daniels
K. Ayotte
J. Bush
J. Thune
S. Martinez
B. Sandoval
C. McMorris Rogers

Dem
J. Biden (inc)
H. Clinton
 
I chatted with Bobby Jindal today. Nothing political, though. (His son is in my daughter's class.) He's a nice enough fellow, but his politics are totally killing the state! What he's done with education and healthcare is inexcusable. And don't get me started on the so-called Louisiana Science Education Act! :mad:
 
I had dinner with Barbara Forrest (of Kitzmiller fame) this weekend. She absolutely scorned Jindal's education policies....and, as an aside, his corruption.
 
MusicMan said:
I chatted with Bobby Jindal today. Nothing political, though. (His son is in my daughter's class.) He's a nice enough fellow, but his politics are totally killing the state! What he's done with education and healthcare is inexcusable. And don't get me started on the so-called Louisiana Science Education Act! :mad:
Click to expand...

Gee. Considering that Gov Jindal is himself and amateur exorcist, I can imagine what that law is. It's the another version of the Religion is Way Funner than Dumb Old Science Act, right?
 
Louisiana is the first state in the Union to pass an "academic freedom" bill. AF is the latest buzzphrase from the Discovery Institute to use to sneak ID/creationism back into the public schools. Kentucky just passed an almost identical bill so now it's valid in two states.
 
SezMe said:
Louisiana is the first state in the Union to pass an "academic freedom" bill. AF is the latest buzzphrase from the Discovery Institute to use to sneak ID/creationism back into the public schools. Kentucky just passed an almost identical bill so now it's valid in two states.
Click to expand...

So that's freedom from academics?
 
Puppycow said:
Rob Portman. Still leading the pack at Intrade:

1. Rob Portman 20.8%
2. Marco Rubio 16.5%
3. Chris Christie 9.0%
4. Mitch Daniels 7.8%
5. Bob McDonnell 6.6%
6. Tim Pawlenty 5.5%
7. Condoleeza Rice 5.2％
8. Paul Ryan 4.5%
9. John Thune 3.1%
10. Bobby Jindal 3.0%
Click to expand...

Update:

1. Marco Rubio 20.2%
2. Rob Portman 19.5%
3. Chris Christie 7.0%
4. Tim Pawlenty 5.6%
5. Bobby Jindal 4.7%
6. Bob McDonnell 4.5%
7. Mitch Daniels 4.0%
T-8. Condoleeza Rice 3.5％
T-8. Paul Ryan 3.5%
10. Pat Toomey 3.3%
 
SezMe said:
Pat Toomey? Where did he come from. hgc doesn't even have him on the master list so he can't be considered. :)
Click to expand...

Wow. That's out of left field. I'll tell you what, though. He's good on the TV, has a smooth and genuine feel to him. He's a former Club for Growth leader, and famously chased Arlen Specter out of the GOP, so there's plenty of street cred there.

Would Mitt try to pick off Pennsylvania with a Toomey pick? I may have to add him to the list. Bears watching.
 
SezMe said:
Ohio has 20 votes, Pennsylvania, 21.

* ... and, as they head into the final turn, Penn is ahead of O by a length ...*
Click to expand...

I would construct a decision tree with net path values factoring in Electoral College impact value and probability of winning the state if the local US Senator (in this scenario, or governor, etc) is placed on the ticket. For example, and using a seat-of-the-pants assignment of probability values, let's assume let's say that W. "M." Romney has a 50% chance of winning Ohio with R. Portman and a 45% chance of winning Pennsylvania with P. Toomey on the ticket.

That's .5*20 vs .45*21 => Ohio 100 vs. Penn 94.5. Now, you're going to want to run a Monte Carlo simulation using randomized values, or something like that blah blah blah. In any case, a back-of-the envelope calculation gives the edge to R. Portman.

Besides, R. Portman is a numbers guy. He can explain it all to the candidate better than I can. He also has a lot of credibility on deficit cutting, considering his tenure as Bush 43's budget czar ... oh wait, something's wrong here.
 
According to a report, since denied by the Romney campaign, Marco Rubio is not even being vetted.

Even before the Republicans chose a presidential nominee it was widely assumed that Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., would be at the top of anybody’s list of vice presidential candidates. The reasons are obvious: Not only is he young, charismatic and wildly popular with conservatives, but he could also help Republicans win a key state (Florida) and make inroads with Hispanics.

But knowledgeable Republican sources tell me that Rubio is not being vetted by Mitt Romney’s vice presidential search team. He has not been asked to complete any questionnaires or been asked to turn over any financial documents typically required of potential vice presidential candidates.

Although it is possible that Rubio may yet be asked to go through the vetting process, it has been nearly two months since Romney named his long-time aide Beth Myers to run his vice presidential search. The fact that Rubio has not been asked to turn over any documents by now is a strong indication that he is not on Romney’s short list of potential running mates.
Click to expand...

Here was the betting at Intrade last time:
Puppycow said:
Update:

1. Marco Rubio 20.2%
2. Rob Portman 19.5%
3. Chris Christie 7.0%
4. Tim Pawlenty 5.6%
5. Bobby Jindal 4.7%
6. Bob McDonnell 4.5%
7. Mitch Daniels 4.0%
T-8. Condoleeza Rice 3.5％
T-8. Paul Ryan 3.5%
10. Pat Toomey 3.3%
Click to expand...

Now:

1. Rob Portman 25.0%
2. Marco Rubio 18.5%
3. Tim Pawlenty 13.0%
4. Chris Christie 7.0%
5. Bobby Jindal 5.9%
6. Paul Ryan 5.1%
7. John Thune 4.3%
8. Bob McDonnell 3.0%
T-9. Cathy McMorris Rodgers 2.0%
T-9. Rand Paul 2.0%

hgc: I think you should un-cross off T-Paw. There's some buzz about him and he's third in the betting ahead of Christie, Jindal and Ryan.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom