Veep Speculation

[Puppycow]

Now that we're down to a fairly small pool of realistic nominees (2 on the D side and 3 maybe 4 on the R side) I'm wondering who each nominee might pick as a running mate.

Intrade shows the conventional wisdom on this but doesn't really indicate which candidate might pick whom.

Usually, the Republican winner of South Carolina is the nominee and I don't think this time will be an exception, so I think that makes McCain clearly the frontrunner now. Who might he pick? Right now Mike Huckabee is trading highest on Intrade at 28. For McCain, that pick would be a purely political calculation meant to make sure that evangelicals show up on election day to vote for the republican ticket. While I think Huckabee probably would be his most effective way to do this, I don't think that McCain would honestly think that Huckabee is the guy who should get within a heartbeat of the Oval Office. Who else could he pick? Fred Thompson is his friend, and is fairly popular with conservatives. Condi Rice would make the Republican ticket diverse, so it's not just two white Republican guys like it always has been. However, her ties with President Bush might not be something McCain wants to associate himself with, and she could be a target for a lot of criticism, because frankly she hasn't done much to distinguish her tenure as either National Security Advisor or Secretary of State. Michael Steele could be a diversity pick who doesn't have all of Rice's baggage, but his highest office was as a Lieutenant Governor.

On the Democratic side, I think that Hillary Clinton would probably offer Obama the job because he's such an inspiring personality, and he hasn't really done anything beyond the pale to antagonize her, except to run against her. Some people will probably theorize that she needs someone with military experience like Wesley Clark, but I don't really think so.

Would Obama pick Hillary? That I'm not so sure of, but I wouldn't discount it completely given her popularity with women. However, while the Intrade VP contract for Obama is at 15, that for Clinton is only at 1. So presumably most people don't think he would pick her. Who else could he pick? Evan Bayh, Al Gore, Bill Richardson and Wesley Clark rank high on Intrade, but at 20, I kind of like the field for the price.

 

[MaGZ]

I think Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee. No idea who he will pick for VP, perhaps an "unknown," the next Dan Quayle.

A Clinton/Clark ticket would be likely for the Dems.

 

[T.A.M.]

Clinton-Obama
Clinton-Richardson

Obama - Clinton
Obama-Edwards

McCain-Huckabee

Romney-Huckabee

TAM

 

[corplinx]

Clinton-Clark

Clinton will pick a very male, very white, very ex-military veep to solve her gravitas issue and get men to vote for her.

 

[Brainster]

McCain won't take the Huckster. He'll reach out to some solid conservative to nail down the right flank; Tom Coburn or Phil Gramm. There's some talk of Fred Thompson, but that strikes me as wishful thinking. Huckabee's unacceptable to all but the evangelicals, and not even some of those.

Hillary would most likely pick Richardson, assuming that the rumors of him sending his delegates to Obama in Iowa turns out to be false.

 

[corplinx]

Phil Gramm is dead politically. I wouldn't expect him to be on any ticket.

 

[Tsukasa Buddha]

You so should have titled it "Where my veeps at?"

I don't really think that any of the top Dems would subject themselves to being VP.

 

[corplinx]

I think Edwards and Obama both know that a veep role in the Clinton administration would be a typical sit-around-and-wait-for-them-to-die role versus an active role like Dick Cheney had.

 

[Hutch]

Phil Gramm is dead politically. I wouldn't expect him to be on any ticket.

I agree with Corp on this one (not responsible for any terrestrial pertubations by the interred rotating in their final resting places). Gramm is old and politically damaged beyond repair.

Truth be told, I don't know who the Repubs nominate for Veep. None of the leading candidates impress me as the type to take a second banana position, and Thompson has yet to show he'll attract anybody to the Elephant side. If Condi doesn't go for it, who then (hmmmm, think Colin Powell might consider it?)

For the Dems, either Clinton or Obama will need to balance the ticket, and Edwards won't be doing that chore again. I like Richardson, he's friendly, Hispanic, and thanks to the Primaries at least somewhat known. Outside of that, I haven't a clue.

First we have to figure out who is running for President, something that will hopefully be much clearer February 6th (I think that is the day after Super Tuesday).

 

[T.A.M.]

If offered to Obama, he might take it so as to add "experience" to his CV, something his critics have tried to nail him for this election.

Richardson, as much as his "I Love Everyone" personality annoys me, might make the white house look a little warmer...something it will desperately need if Billary wins.

TAM

 

[rtalman]

McCain would not pick anyone even tangentally affiliated with the GW Bush Administration, he still feels the sting from what happened in 2000. I'm thinking he will want to pick a fellow Vietnam Vet. Maybe Duncan Hunter.

Clinton would not pick Obama, her ego could not stand any of the attention being taken from being the first woman in the white house. I think Edwards is a good choice for her, and he would jump at the chance.

Romney would have to pick Huckabee to try and bring in some of the born-agains that he can't get now.

Obama would want to pick the old white guy to give him the gravitas, but someone not currently in DC to keep with his change message. Maybe Wesley Clark for him.

 

[Puppycow]

You so should have titled it "Where my veeps at?"

I don't really think that any of the top Dems would subject themselves to being VP.

lol. Didn't think about getting cutsey with the title

But the VP is a promotion for a Senator because for one thing, they still get to cast a vote in the Senate as a tie-breaker. Also, the VP is usually the frontrunner for the nomination after the president finishes 2 terms (George H.W. Bush and Al Gore secured their party's nomination) and, you never know, you're a heartbeat away from the Oval Office itself. Even in the case of an unpopular 1-term president like Jimmy Carter, his VP, Mondale, got the nomination 4 years later.

So I really don't see why a top politician would turn it down. It's really not just a warm bucket of piss anymore.

 

[corplinx]

Gore lost, Mondale lost, Bush won but only had 1 term. It wasn't a direct stepping stone for nixon. I would say that VP isn't a desirable role for someone wanting to be president. The only thing it seems to be a lock for is getting a nomination.

 

[Pope130]

Gore lost, Mondale lost, Bush won but only had 1 term. It wasn't a direct stepping stone for nixon. I would say that VP isn't a desirable role for someone wanting to be president. The only thing it seems to be a lock for is getting a nomination.

This is true, but at least VP is a better lead-in job than Senator. It's been 48 years since anyone went directly from the Senate to the Oval Office, and the job didn't work out well for him.

Governor seems to be a much better lead-in.

Robert

 

[Puppycow]

Gore lost, Mondale lost, Bush won but only had 1 term. It wasn't a direct stepping stone for nixon. I would say that VP isn't a desirable role for someone wanting to be president. The only thing it seems to be a lock for is getting a nomination.

Gore came within the skin of his teeth of winning (stupid butterfly ballots ). Mondale was going up against a popular incumbant, and getting the nomination is more that half the battle (who was the last president who didn't get a major party nomination?). So it can't hurt. Sure, governors have been popular recently, but there's fifty governors for every vice president. I doubt there's 50 governor-cum-presidents for every vice president-cum-president. So I maintain that it's the next best thing to the presidency itself.

 

[corplinx]

Of course, George H Bush made the transition from veep to pres. However, he was much more than just a veep.

From Wikipedia:
He became involved in politics soon after graduating from Yale University, serving as a member of the United States House of Representatives for the 7th district of Texas (1967–1971), the United States Ambassador to the United Nations (1971–1973), chairman of the Republican National Committee (1973–1974), Chief of the United States Liaison Office in the People's Republic of China (1974–1976), and Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (1976–1977). After an unsuccessful 1980 presidential run, Bush was chosen by Ronald Reagan to be vice president. During his tenure (1981–1989), Bush was the first person ever to serve as Acting President of the United States.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_H._W._Bush

On top of that, he was a WW2 veteran. An Obama or Edwards could play the veep role but they would still be a paper tiger candidate when they went for the top spot.

 

[Cat 1957]

Edwards is not going to go for VP. It would be a "do nothing" role in the Clinton White House. And whilst it may not be in the Obama White House, I think he will choose a person with perhaps some military experience. Edwards would make a GREAT Attorney General in either administration! Also, I believe the Governor from New Mexico wants to be the VP. That's why he hasn't endorsed either candidate.

 

[marksman]

I think there is a good possibility of a McCain-Fred Thompson ticket (the oldest ticket!).
I think there is a decent chance at a Romney-Huckabee ticket (the godliest ticket!).
I think a Clinton-Clark ticket would be a strong ticket (the "Cl"-iest ticket!).
I have no idea who Obama might select.

I don't think Edwards will be the Veep candidate unless neither Clinton and Obama have enough delegates going into the convention and Edwards is the tie-breaker. (Edwards has 52 delegates.)

 

[Drudgewire]

McCain won't take the Huckster. He'll reach out to some solid conservative to nail down the right flank; Tom Coburn or Phil Gramm. There's some talk of Fred Thompson, but that strikes me as wishful thinking. Huckabee's unacceptable to all but the evangelicals, and not even some of those.

Fred's getting talked about because he helped run McCain's 2000 bid. I hope this is true, because as a South Carolinian I'm dreading the concept of Lindsay Graham getting the nod.

 

[T.A.M.]

How about McCain-Rice (as in Condi)?

He gets some strong support from the black and female community as a plus, but has the association with the BUSH admin as a minus.

TAM