Veep prediction contest

If we rank the forums picks to this point, giving out 5 points each time someone is picked first, 4 for second, all the way to 1 for 5th, we get the following ranks:

Democrat
Richardson, Bill (25)
Sebelius, Kathleen (22)
Clinton, Hillary (15)
Biden, Joe (8)
Kaine, Tim (6)
Bayh, Evan (5)
Kucinich, Dennis (5)
Gephardt, Dick (4)
Webb, Jim (4)
Pelosi, Nancy (4)
Rendell, Ed (2)
Clark, Wesley (1)
Edwards, John (1)

Republican:
Romney, Mitt (31)
Crist, Charlie (16)
Portman, Rob (14)
Palin, Sarah (10)
Pawlenty, Tim (10)
Paul, Ron (5)
Fiorina, Carly (4)
Huckabee, Mike (4)
Hutchison, Kay Bailey (3)
Jindal, Bobby (2)
Thune, John (1)
Whitman, Christie Todd (1)
 
davefoc said:
I sort of agree with this, except that I am not exactly sure how the problem was of his own making.

Clinton - Would probably have been a fairly easy choice except for weirdness late in the primaries. But she might not have been a great choice as she doesn't fill in some of Obama's weaknesses and she did have some issues hanging around that could have caused real problems in the general election. So problems here but not caused by Obama.

Clark - It wasn't helpful for Clark to do what he did and Obama called him on it. Not sure what Obama should have done other than what he did. So problems but I don't see how they were caused by Obama.

Webb - Surprised that he didn't want it, but I don't see what Obama could have done to change things.

Richardson - What's wrong with him? And Obama hasn't done anything to exclude him has he?

Biden - Seems like a reasonable choice to me, but no executive experience and no help with Latinos.

Bayh - Might be too liberal for a candidate looking to be centrist? Still don't see how Obama has done anything to eliminate him.

As an aside I just noticed that Whitman made somebody's list for McCain. I really like that choice. It might not impress the social conservatives especially the ones that think anthropogenic global warming is a hoax but it might really cement the alienated Clinton voter segment. She's got executive experience, she's managed to get elected in a largely Democratic state and Bushco fired her. Altogether she might really help his chances and when you're behind like McCain is it might be time to take a gamble.
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Richardson has some of the same problems as Webb. He would have trouble with the vetting process. Biden wears very thin the more he is allowed to talk and would step on Obama's message. You are right about Bayh he is too liberal not to mention the Indiana governor is a republican that would appoint a repub senator to the seat.. Obama is going to probably go either with a woman, not good if it isn't Clinton, or will take the usual route of someone from a large swing state like Ohio which has a democratic governor and popular liberal senator. I think the DNC would rather not have 2 of their senators on the ticket since their majority is so small.
 
Texas said:
You are right about Bayh he is too liberal not to mention the Indiana governor is a republican that would appoint a repub senator to the seat..
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Daniels is unpopular and has only a slim lead over his democratic challenger, JIll Long Thompson. If elected, Long Thompson would take office before the presidential inauguration, which means she could replace Bayh with a democrat.

I think the DNC would rather not have 2 of their senators on the ticket since their majority is so small.
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Democrats are predicted to almost certainly pick up at least 4 seats (VA,NM,CO,NH, maybe AK) and lose none.
 
aerosolben said:
Daniels is unpopular and has only a slim lead over his democratic challenger, JIll Long Thompson. If elected, Long Thompson would take office before the presidential inauguration, which means she could replace Bayh with a democrat.


Democrats are predicted to almost certainly pick up at least 4 seats (VA,NM,CO,NH, maybe AK) and lose none.
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Be careful with predictictions like that. I see Lieberman actually becoming a republican OR at least caucusing with them. Those states you list as certainties are far from that. I don't think either candidate will have substantial coattails . In every election for the past 20 years, the generic congressional poll always favors democrats but when it comes to actually voting for a candidate the results are often very different.
 
Texas said:
Be careful with predictictions like that. I see Lieberman actually becoming a republican OR at least caucusing with them. Those states you list as certainties are far from that. I don't think either candidate will have substantial coattails . In every election for the past 20 years, the generic congressional poll always favors democrats but when it comes to actually voting for a candidate the results are often very different.
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Well, in VA, NM, NH, and CO the democrat is polling ahead by 30, 25, 14, and 10 points, respectively. These predictions are weighted based on pollster performance in previous races, so I'm not going to give much credence to unsupported assertion of bias, especially with the polling margins being what they are.
 
Third try:

Democrat:
1. Hillary Clinton
2. Kathleen Sebelius
3. Bill Richardson
4. Tim Kaine
5. Evan Bayh

Republican:
1. Mitt Romney
2. Rob Portman
3. Sarah Palin
4. Charlie Crist
5. Mike Huckabee
 
Updated tally:

Democrat
Richardson, Bill (28)
Sebelius, Kathleen (26)
Clinton, Hillary (20)
Biden, Joe (8)
Kaine, Tim (8)
Bayh, Evan (6)
Kucinich, Dennis (5)
Gephardt, Dick (4)
Webb, Jim (4)
Pelosi, Nancy (4)
Rendell, Ed (2)
Clark, Wesley (1)
Edwards, John (1)

Republican:
Romney, Mitt (36)
Crist, Charlie (18)
Portman, Rob (18)
Palin, Sarah (13)
Pawlenty, Tim (10)
Huckabee, Mike (5)
Paul, Ron (5)
Fiorina, Carly (4)
Hutchison, Kay Bailey (3)
Jindal, Bobby (2)
Thune, John (1)
Whitman, Christie Todd (1)
 
I just got an email from a Cafepress store saying that Obama-Biden stuff would be available tomorrow. Then I got a second one, saying *maybe.

I nearly flipped out until I realized the store has no connection with the campaign. Augh!

Of the three I hear it's down to, Biden is my pick, by the way.
 
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26288748/#storyContinued

I've recently spoken with two of the finalists for the role of Barack Obama's running-mate, and to two other sources who are close to the process.

My bottom line is this: Barring a big surprise or last-minute change of heart, the choice is likely to be Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee.

..

"If I had to bet my life on it, I'd bet it is Joe," said one of the other contenders.
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Democrat:
1. Bill Richardson
2. Jim Webb
3. Janet Napolitino
4. Wesley Clark
5. Ken Salazar

Republican:
1. Mitt Romney
2. Mike Huckabee
3. Joe Lieberman
4. David Petraeus
5. Kay Bailey Hutchison
 
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I'm picking the Democrat right now:

Kathleen Sebelius.

My distant number two pick is Biden. And then Nunn. But I've got Sebelius way out in front.
 
Semi-official results:

Novice skeptic: 5
Tsukasa: 0
Brainster: 4
Dave Foc: 4
Cain: 4
MaGZ: 0
Marksman: 4
Kestrel: 0
Loss Leader: 4
Puppycow: 3

Nobody had both Palin and Biden on their lists except for the consensus picks compiled by Marksman. For all that Palin was considered the surprise pick and Biden well-anticipated, more people had Palin on their list than did Biden.

Congrats to Novice Skeptic who was the only person to have the right candidate (Palin again) at the very top of the list.
 
davefoc said:
... Altogether she might really help his chances and when you're behind like McCain is it might be time to take a gamble.
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I was on the right track I just had the wrong she.

My buddy that is a lifelong committed Democrat thinks that McCain just handed Obama the election. He's happy with the pick because he thinks it undercuts the no-experience argument against Obama.

I'm not sure. Maybe it helps shore up McCain's lack of executive experience (2 years as governor is two more years than anybody else in the race has has as any kind of executive) and maybe it helps him with the Clintons for McCain crowd because she's a woman or maybe because she's not black. On the other hand I don't think McCain needed help to win Alaska and an almost complete lack of national name recognition makes it seem like not a very helpful choice for McCain's chances. I thought Romney was the choice that helped him the most and as an Obama rooter I'm glad he didn't pick him.

ETA: This guy at HuffingtonPost.com sure thinks it was a good pick for the Democrats:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/christine-wicker/dems-should-thank-god-for_b_122520.html

The gist:
A lot of fundamentalists that support McCain over Obama are going to be put off by a woman on the ticket and the Clinton for McCain crowd isn't going to be too happy with a pro-life beauty queen as McCain's running mate. Hmm. I wonder what the Clinton's for McCain wackos have got to say about all this on their web site.

ETA2: the answer:
While Nancy Pelosi was spending millions of our dollars to pimp out her private jet, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin was selling the one from the prior corrupt administration on e-bay, and cutting her own pay! While Obama throws his best VP candidate -- the one who got 18 million votes -- under the bus, John McCain welcomes a new conductor aboard the straight talk express. While Joe Biden relies on the old playbook of negativity, John McCain looks to the future of America. That future is, Country First, Country over Party, optimism and hell no BHO!

Clintons4McCain is pleased and thrilled with McCain's choice, a choice for change -- finally-- WE can believe in! Palin is Nobama all the way, doesn't back down, she is in it to WIN it and to serve the common good, never "falls in line" and we welcome her to the fray!
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Brainster said:
Semi-official results:

Novice skeptic: 5
Tsukasa: 0
Brainster: 4
Dave Foc: 4
Cain: 4
MaGZ: 0
Marksman: 4
Kestrel: 0
Loss Leader: 4
Puppycow: 3

Nobody had both Palin and Biden on their lists except for the consensus picks compiled by Marksman. For all that Palin was considered the surprise pick and Biden well-anticipated, more people had Palin on their list than did Biden.

Congrats to Novice Skeptic who was the only person to have the right candidate (Palin again) at the very top of the list.
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Thank you for the recognition, it is an honor to be noticed by a famous debunker. In retrospect though the Richardson pick was stupid. Though I'll also admit that I probably wouldn't have had Biden anywhere in my top 5. I think in the back of my mind I always thought Obama would do the smartest thing and take Hillary. I'm glad he didn't.
 
Brainster said:
Semi-official results:

Novice skeptic: 5
Tsukasa: 0
Brainster: 4
Dave Foc: 4
Cain: 4
MaGZ: 0
Marksman: 4
Kestrel: 0
Loss Leader: 4
Puppycow: 3

Nobody had both Palin and Biden on their lists except for the consensus picks compiled by Marksman. For all that Palin was considered the surprise pick and Biden well-anticipated, more people had Palin on their list than did Biden.

Congrats to Novice Skeptic who was the only person to have the right candidate (Palin again) at the very top of the list.
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Thanks for getting back to this. I would have eventually, but I've been a little busy IRL lately. Congrats Novice Skeptic.
 
Maybe you guys didn't have you hearing aids on but President Bush totally won this thread by including Admiral Stockdale. It could still happen. Maybe Harriet Meyers Sarah Palin will withdraw.
 
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