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Veep prediction contest

Puppycow

Penultimate Amazing
Puppycow
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Pick and rank 5 candidates on each side. Five points are awarded if your top pick is the VP, 4 for your second pick, etc. Tiebreaker goes to the person who submitted their final picks earlier.
 
Democrat:
1. Hillary Clinton
2. Jim Webb
3. Kathleen Sebelius
4. Bill Richardson
5. Tim Kaine

Republican:
1. Mitt Romney
2. Tim Pawlenty
3. Rob Portman
4. Mike Huckabee
5. Sarah Palin
 
Webb just said he doesn't want the job.

My predictions:

Democratic: Dennis Kucinich
Republican: Ron Paul
 
Is it OK if I don't need five guesses?

1. Richardson
2. Gephardt

1. Romney
2. Palin
 
Relevant update from FiveThirtyEight:

Webb is decisively out.

And the leaders from InTrade:

Dem:
Clinton
Sebelius
Bayh (biggest recent gainer, though)
Hagel
Rendell
Richardson
Biden

Rep:
Romney (overwhelming favorite at the moment)
Pawlenty
Huckabee
Crist
Portman
Fiorina
Palin
 
Last edited:
Tsukasa Buddha said:
Webb just said he doesn't want the job.

My predictions:

Democratic: Dennis Kucinich
Republican: Ron Paul
Click to expand...

If you hit on either one of those, my entire world view is wildly incorrect.

Hagel was favored over Biden and Richardson? That doesn't seem right. Hagel is a very long shot in my view.

Huckabee is still in the running for McCain VP? I doubt it. I think his name is just bounced around to pick up some of his supporters.

I was in the Clinton had no chance camp but now I wonder. Clinton looked to be holding up her endorsement of Obama for a vice presidential slot. This was very tacky and forced Obama to take an overt stand against her which of course pissed off the nobody-but-Clinton people even more. But now with the passage of time, and maybe some dimming of the memories of some of Clinton's weirdness as the primaries came to an end could she really be in the running for VP? I thought her negatives in a general election would shoot down the advantage the ticket would get from capturing a few more of the alienated Clinton supporters.

anyway my picks:
McCain - Romney, Crist, Fiorina
Obama - Richardson, Biden, Sebellius, other, Clinton
 
aerosolben said:
Relevant update from FiveThirtyEight:

Webb is decisively out.

And the leaders from InTrade:

Dem:
Clinton
Sebelius
Bayh (biggest recent gainer, though)
Hagel
Rendell
Richardson
Biden

Rep:
Romney (overwhelming favorite at the moment)
Pawlenty
Huckabee
Crist
Portman
Fiorina
Palin
Click to expand...

Like Davefoc, I have a bit of trouble understanding why Hagel is on that list. Apparantly he gained 5 points and is now trading higher than people like Bayh, Richardson and Edwards. Personally I don't buy it at all.
 
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aerosolben said:
Well, Hagel directly said he would consider a VP offer, Obama has previously stated he wants Hagel in his cabinet, and Hagel's refusal to endorse McCain.

Frankly, I don't really buy it either - probably just a random bounce from the Webb news. If I were conspiracy-minded, I might say floating his name is a ploy to steal votes from independents who like McCain's "maverick" politics.
Click to expand...
It sounds like Kerry is now in the running. Obama is running out of candidates with military creds and Obama has thrown Clark under the bus and now Webb is out. I think for McCain no one on the list will be chosen. McCain is a one termer so his choice is going to have to be someone that is ready to run in 2012.
 
Republicans:

1. Portman
2. Palin
3. Crist
4. Romney
5. Whitman

Democrats

1. Richardson
2. Sebellius
3. Kaine
4. Clinton
5. Bayh

The Kerry rumor is ridiculous. Kerry cannot credibly be an attack dog against the guy he tried to get to run as his VP last time around. He tried it today and looked silly.
 
aerosolben said:
Is this coming from somewhere, or just your personal opinion?

I think Kerry is unlikely because of his major "lame duck" baggage.
Click to expand...

Then Obama has a problem. The rumor is coming from both Kos and DU.
If he doesn't have someone with minimal foreiegn policy/military credibility on his ticket he is going to compound his already weak ratings on national security. Obama has to have someone that can counter McCain on foreign policy and he is quickly running out of names to do so. Webb pulled out because he didn't want to be vetted and Clark has already been disowned by Obama. Hagel is a non-starter since his base would go nuts to see a nominal republican on the ticket. He can't pick Clinton since she would highlight his weaknesses and their primary battle has written GOP ads for free. Obama is in a box of his own making and his pick for VP is going to really test his vaunted judgement.
 
Second try:

Democrat:
1. Hillary Clinton
2. Kathleen Sebelius
3. Bill Richardson
4. Tim Kaine
5. Evan Bayh

Republican:
1. Mitt Romney
2. Tim Pawlenty
3. Rob Portman
4. Mike Huckabee
5. Sarah Palin
 
Texas said:
Then Obama has a problem. The rumor is coming from both Kos and DU.
If he doesn't have someone with minimal foreiegn policy/military credibility on his ticket he is going to compound his already weak ratings on national security. Obama has to have someone that can counter McCain on foreign policy and he is quickly running out of names to do so. Webb pulled out because he didn't want to be vetted and Clark has already been disowned by Obama. Hagel is a non-starter since his base would go nuts to see a nominal republican on the ticket. He can't pick Clinton since she would highlight his weaknesses and their primary battle has written GOP ads for free. Obama is in a box of his own making and his pick for VP is going to really test his vaunted judgement.
Click to expand...

I sort of agree with this, except that I am not exactly sure how the problem was of his own making.

Clinton - Would probably have been a fairly easy choice except for weirdness late in the primaries. But she might not have been a great choice as she doesn't fill in some of Obama's weaknesses and she did have some issues hanging around that could have caused real problems in the general election. So problems here but not caused by Obama.

Clark - It wasn't helpful for Clark to do what he did and Obama called him on it. Not sure what Obama should have done other than what he did. So problems but I don't see how they were caused by Obama.

Webb - Surprised that he didn't want it, but I don't see what Obama could have done to change things.

Richardson - What's wrong with him? And Obama hasn't done anything to exclude him has he?

Biden - Seems like a reasonable choice to me, but no executive experience and no help with Latinos.

Bayh - Might be too liberal for a candidate looking to be centrist? Still don't see how Obama has done anything to eliminate him.

As an aside I just noticed that Whitman made somebody's list for McCain. I really like that choice. It might not impress the social conservatives especially the ones that think anthropogenic global warming is a hoax but it might really cement the alienated Clinton voter segment. She's got executive experience, she's managed to get elected in a largely Democratic state and Bushco fired her. Altogether she might really help his chances and when you're behind like McCain is it might be time to take a gamble.
 
Texas said:
Then Obama has a problem. The rumor is coming from both Kos and DU.
If he doesn't have someone with minimal foreiegn policy/military credibility on his ticket he is going to compound his already weak ratings on national security.
Click to expand...
Do you have a link for the rumors? I really doubt Obama has that much room to gain in national security voters, regardless of the VP.

Also, you did not mention Richardson, the strongest foreign policy VP candidate (AFAIK).

davefoc said:
Biden - Seems like a reasonable choice to me, but no executive experience and no help with Latinos.
Click to expand...
Does Obama need help with Latinos? He leads 61-30 over McCain.
 
McCain’s picks:
Romney
Crist
Hutchison
Jindal
Fiorina


Obama’s picks:
Richardson
Pelosi
Sebelius
Rendell
Clark
 
Democrat:
Sebelius
Biden
Bayh
Clinton
Edwards

My wish: Richardson (but it won't happen so it's not on my list)


Republican:
Crist
Romney
Portman
Pawlenty
Thune

My wish: Christie Todd Whitman (but she's too moderate, tied to Bush's EPA and has been out of office too long, so it won't happen)
 
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