Vaccine/autism CT discussion

[Clayton Moore]

Oh, I see how the yellow highlighting made that extra true.

But look what I found in just a few seconds of Googling:
http://www.trailend.org/you-dangers.htm
I purposefully chose a history rather than a medical site, because we all know that medical doctors are in a conspiracy, and you are interested in what parents considered childhood diseases.

I'll find more later, if you insist, but it seems silly. You might as well insist Jupiter and Mars weren't considered planets in the 1930s.

Good work. No mention of childhood diseases of the 20's and after.

 

[Giordano]

Good work. No mention of childhood diseases of the 20's and after.

Oh, I see! "early 1900s" doesn't include the 1920s despite the rest of the website clearly referring to events as late as 1934? Or the fact that the home page of the site refers to "an intriguing glimpse into life during the period 1913 to 1933."

I had intended to follow this up with some citations from medical textbooks and reviews from the 1920s to 1960s, but why bother. You are trying to get out of having made an silly and erroneous statement by pitiful means, and I am not going to play a monkey for you.

So, lets just focus on measles (not rubella, which is a different disease) for a moment. You accept it is a childhood disease. Do you yet accept it is a dangerous disease parents should worry about?

 

[dafydd]

I've repeatedly pointed out that tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands, of parents have noticed and reported to their physicians that their child regressed to autistic behavior after the child's MMR shot.

Anecdotes are not evidence. Got any evidence?

 

[dafydd]

You tell me.

MMR does not cause autism. Nobody can tell you.

 

[Clayton Moore]

We all know that Clay is appealing to unfiltered anecdotes, that upon serious study the anecdotes do not show that MMR causes autism, and that all serious studies of the connection between MMR and autism have failed to reveal any connection at all.

But is Clay even getting the number of anecdotes right? He keeps claiming that it is tens to hundreds of thousands. I decided to check this out by consulting http://wonder.cdc.gov, a website that delivers VAERS data filtered by search criteria.

If you are not aware, VAERS is the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System. Anyone can submit a report claiming that some symptom followed vaccination. It is a passive reporting system to monitor vaccine safety. Point is, the database includes everything reported by anyone whether it makes sense or not, whether there is evidence or not, unless the person who submitted the report agrees to take it down (for example, someone claimed a vaccine turned him into the Hulk, and they contacted him to get his permission to remove this report). Check out the disclaimer you must read before getting their data.

So let's see how many autism reports are in VAERS, using these search criteria:



I get 692 reports. With no restrictions other than reports of autism with MMR, we are already down to only 692.

To be generous, let's ignore the restriction to MMR vaccine and include all vaccines. Using these criteria:



There are now 1,032 results. In the history of VAERS, only 1,032 cases of autism have been reported as associated with vaccines.

To summarize, where are these tens to hundreds of thousands of reported correlations? I require evidence that the number of anecdotes, inconclusive as they are, is as high as claimed. The evidence I can find suggests otherwise.

What would be the likelihood of a distressed parent, who is assured by the doctor the MMR vaccine had nothing to do with their child regressing to autistic behavior after the child's MMR shot, submitting a report?


I noted this in the disclaimer.

More than 10 million vaccines per year are given to children less than 1 year old, usually between 2 and 6 months of age. At this age, infants are at greatest risk for certain medical adverse events, including high fevers, seizures, and sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). Some infants will experience these medical events shortly after a vaccination by coincidence.

And this.

"Underreporting" is one of the main limitations of passive surveillance systems, including VAERS. The term, underreporting refers to the fact that VAERS receives reports for only a small fraction of actual adverse events. The degree of underreporting varies widely. As an example, a great many of the millions of vaccinations administered each year by injection cause soreness, but relatively few of these episodes lead to a VAERS report. Physicians and patients understand that minor side effects of vaccinations often include this kind of discomfort, as well as low fevers. On the other hand, more serious and unexpected medical events are probably more likely to be reported than minor ones, especially when they occur soon after vaccination, even if they may be coincidental and related to other causes.

Sounds like fertile areas for escalation to certain medical adverse events, including high fevers, seizures, and sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS).

 

[dafydd]

This is no fun anymore. When you've driven past the same laugh twenty times it gets boring. I'm out.

 

[Clayton Moore]

So, lets just focus on measles (not rubella, which is a different disease) for a moment. You accept it is a childhood disease. Do you yet accept it is a dangerous disease parents should worry about?

Not at all.

Originally Posted by Clayton Moore View Post

Let's put it this way if child who gets measles is not tended to/treated in a timely manner measles is dangerous.
If child gets an earache and it is not tended to/treated in a timely manner an earache is dangerous.
If child gets an infection and it is not tended to/treated in a timely manner an infection is dangerous.

If anyone gets an earache and it is not tended to/treated in a timely manner an earache is dangerous.
If anyone gets an infection and it is not tended to/treated in a timely manner an infection is dangerous.

 

[Clayton Moore]

This is no fun anymore. When you've driven past the same laugh twenty times it gets boring. I'm out.

You didn't contribute to the discussion anyway. You were wasting your time.

 

[dafydd]

You didn't contribute to the discussion anyway. You were wasting your time.

One more, Asking you for evidence of your vaccination and autism fantasy was never a waste of time, the time spent was very productive.

 

[Reality Check]

Childhood diseases are diseases children get during childhood.

The diseases of CHILDHOOD DISEASES in 1920 would be the same as the CHILDHOOD DISEASES of 1930, 1940, 1950, and 1960. A parent or an adult of those years would say mumps, measles, and chicken pox were the childhood diseases.

You are wrong. By your definition anyone would say that any of this List of childhood diseases and disorders were the CHILDHOOD DISEASES.
Add in smallpox before it was eradicated.

 

[Reality Check]

Anyone over 50 who can be depended upon to tell the truth will tell you that the term CHILDHOOD DISEASES refers to Measles, Mumps, and Chicken Pox.

Anyone who can read your definition

Childhood diseases are diseases children get during childhood.

knows that you are wrong.
The list of childhood diseases and disorders includes many more than the 3 diseases you mention.

 

[Reality Check]

Rubella is a type of measles hence the name German Measles.

Totally wrong, Clayton Moore.

Rubella is caused by a different virus from measles.
If you have measles then you do not have rubella.
If you have rubella then you do not have measles.
And of course you can have both rubella and measles!

Rubella

Rubella is also known as German measles because the disease was first described by German physicians in the mid-eighteenth century

The measles part comes from similar symptoms, e.g. flu-like symptoms + a rash.

 

[Reality Check]

BTW FYI
http://kidshealth.org/parent/infections/skin/german_measles.html

Since the danger is to unborn babies what's the rush with the vaccine? Why not just require it for every 10 year old girl?

That is a good idea for a totalitarian state that can mandate that for every 10 year old girl. It would get rid of congenital rubella syndrome cases. Do you live in such a state, Clayton Moore ?

But that still leaves evey male of any age and every girl under 10 years old at risk of catching rubella.

 

[Reality Check]

The diseases of CHILDHOOD DISEASES in 1920 would be the same as the CHILDHOOD DISEASES of 1930, 1940, 1950, and 1960. A parent or an adult of those years would say mumps, measles, and chicken pox were the childhood diseases.
That's the truth. Period.

Did the world end in 1960, Clayton Moore ?
Your statement is obviously wrong.
The list of childhood diseases and disorders includes many more than the 3 diseases you mention. It would include smallpox for the CHILDHOOD DISEASES of 1930, 1940, 1950, and 1960.

That's the truth. Period.

 

[Giordano]

Not at all.
Let's put it this way if child who gets measles is not tended to/treated in a timely manner measles is dangerous.
If child gets an earache and it is not tended to/treated in a timely manner an earache is dangerous.
If child gets an infection and it is not tended to/treated in a timely manner an infection is dangerous.
Originally Posted by Clayton Moore View Post

Does it worry you that increasingly you are reduced to citing your own posts as evidence for your posts?

But let's look at your post:
If child who gets measles is not tended to/treated in a timely manner measles is dangerous. very true
If child gets an earache and it is not tended to/treated in a timely manner an earache is possibly dangerous depending on the cause of the earache. The chance that an untreated earache will leave you crippled or dead is much much less than untreated measles
If child gets an infection and it is not tended to/treated in a timely manner an infection is possibly dangerous depending on the infection. If it is the common cold, no. If it is staph, yes. If it is smallpox, definitely yes

Now, lets look at treatment:
if child who gets measles is tended to/treated in a timely manner measles is dangerous because there is no truly effective treatment. As pointed out to you previously, measles is as deadly today as in the 1950s because of this.
If child gets an earache and it is tended to/treated in a timely manner an earache is usually not dangerous because here are many ways to treat most earaches.
If child gets an infection and it is tended to/treated in a timely manner an infection is dangerous or not depending on the infection. If it is staph and sensitive to an antibiotic, treatment will help. If it is smallpox, there is no truly effective treatment.

 

[Stamuel]

What would be the likelihood of a distressed parent, who is assured by the doctor the MMR vaccine had nothing to do with their child regressing to autistic behavior after the child's MMR shot, submitting a report?



I noted this in the disclaimer.



And this.



Sounds like fertile areas for escalation to certain medical adverse events, including high fevers, seizures, and sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS).

Is Clay tacitly admitting here that not only is his case built entirely on anecdotes, but that he completely made up the number of anecdotes?

And after admitting he relies on dubious anecdotes, he quotes two passages explaining why we should expect many coincidental associations due to the susceptibility of babies to illness, which only further shows how worthless his case is. Poor performance. Why does he continue with this?

 

[Matthew Cline]

Childhood diseases are diseases children get during childhood.

So how does that exclude polio?

There would be no reason for the using the term childhood diseases if it meant ALL the diseases children get.

Of course. If it was all diseases that would include colds and the flu, yet adults get those plenty often, so it wouldn't make sense refer to them as "childhood".

A parent or an adult of those years would say mumps, measles, and chicken pox were the childhood diseases.

Soooo, since that's would come to the mind of the average parent when the phrase "childhood diseases" is mentioned, that what childhood diseases means, regardless of either its definition or of what medical professionals think?

 

[Matthew Cline]

Okay, I think I might have figured out what Moore's talking about with regards to childhood diseases. I think it goes something like this:

1) Which diseases count as "childhood diseases" consists of whatever comes to mind when you tell the term "childhood diseases" to a parent.

2) What counts as a childhood disease doesn't change over time.

3) Current day parents don't think of polio when told the the phrase "childhood disease".

4) Thus, polio has never been considered a childhood disease.

Or, to put it another way, if polio had ever been considered a childhood disease, then polio would cross the minds of current day parents when "childhood diseases" was mentioned, despite the fact that in the current day it's extremely rare for anyone in a developed nation to ever catch polio.

So, Moore, am I getting warmer?

 

[abaddon]

You didn't contribute to the discussion anyway. You were wasting your time.

What, and you do contribute meaningful arguments? The evidence suggests otherwise.

 

[Dcdrac]

Mr Mooore you were the one that postied a link between vaccinnes and autism so wheres the evidence?

How does MMR cause autism?

Plesae provide your controlled experiments data, your clinical trial results and all evidence based research you have done to date to prove the link.

Have your results been replicated by anyone lese and verified ?