Universal Income.

[Tippit]

Is your argument that replacing welfare with UBI will cause the money printers to hyper-inflate the UBI away?

Essentially, yes, but only to the extent there is an increase in net welfare and it is inflationary. I have a theory that hyper-inflating the money supply has and will actually cause a large deflationary offset (CPI) if the emission of the money is sufficiently concentrated. I will make a thread about this in a sub forum.

I have to be careful when switching definitions of “inflation”. There is the government cooked consumer price index, and there is the Austrian school definition.


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[Belz...]

It’s already a concern in Australia. The minimum adult wage is nearly $40k per annum, yet there are labour shortages everywhere. There is the risk that a UBI would make it harder to fill jobs.

But again : WHY do you think so? You keep saying it but I still don't know why you think it would happen.

UBI and minimum wage aren't the same thing. The former doesn't come from the employer's pockets. As for the current shortage, do you have reliable information as to why it's the case?

 

[cullennz]

But again : WHY do you think so? You keep saying it but I still don't know why you think it would happen.

UBI and minimum wage aren't the same thing. The former doesn't come from the employer's pockets. As for the current shortage, do you have reliable information as to why it's the case?

Sorry, but do you mind putting this in more detail as it does not make sense to me on first reading.

 

[Belz...]

Sorry, but do you mind putting this in more detail as it does not make sense to me on first reading.

I'm asking him to explain this specific objection to UBI.

Hope that helps.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

But if you raise the price past the point that your customers are willing or able to pay, you will lose customers. And whatever services you offer will now be out of reach of some.

But that's just basic supply and demand. If hiring a cleaner increases in cost beyond what would be offset by everybody having more money, then fewer people will be able to hire a cleaner. But that just makes hiring a cleaner more of a luxury.

 

[cullennz]

I'm asking him to explain this specific objection to UBI.

Hope that helps.

I was just trying to work out which you mean aren't coming out of employers pockets.

If it is minimum or the trendy one living wage it obviously does.

If it is a UBI, some poor prick has to pay for it, and the easiest people to hit are small businesses.

Well that and middle income, as I have already mentioned.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

What if the vast majority of people decide to quit working, live very modestly, and value their time more than any excess income that a job will provide?

Doesn't appear to happen, and is a scenario that ignores how people actually tend to behave.

I mean, look at this study, which found that 85% of lottery millionaires remain in the workforce, with 65% of total winners continuing to do the same job at the same company at which they worked before they won.

The idea that people don't want to work is a right-wing stick used to further the myth of the "lazy poor" in order to justify not providing social safety nets.

 

[cullennz]

But that's just basic supply and demand. If hiring a cleaner increases in cost beyond what would be offset by everybody having more money, then fewer people will be able to hire a cleaner. But that just makes hiring a cleaner more of a luxury.

It also means less people will be hired as cleaners meaning more jobs gone.

 

[cullennz]

Doesn't appear to happen, and is a scenario that ignores how people actually tend to behave.

I mean, look at this study, which found that 85% of lottery millionaires remain in the workforce, with 65% of total winners continuing to do the same job at the same company at which they worked before they won.

The idea that people don't want to work is a right-wing stick used to further the myth of the "lazy poor" in order to justify not providing social safety nets.

Personally think big life changing lotto winners is a bad sample to gauge things from, but get the point.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Although I have no frame of reference for what $40K a year buys in Australia l, UBI making low wage jobs more difficult to fill is a realistic concern. It’s not an insurmountable problem however. But unless that has resulted in the vast majority of Australia is exiting any income generation at all it’s very different than what Tippit was concerned about though.

My concern would be an income supplement for the employed would result in people working a standard 40 hour week instead of overtime that will cost a lot of employers productivity.

It's perhaps worth pointing out that there's the beginning of a trend towards bringing in a 4 day working week. The 5 day/40 hour working week is actually less than a hundred years old. Companies that have tried the 4 day week in recent times haven't seen a drop in productivity, as a rule.

 

[cullennz]

It's perhaps worth pointing out that there's the beginning of a trend towards bringing in a 4 day working week. The 5 day/40 hour working week is actually less than a hundred years old. Companies that have tried the 4 day week in recent times haven't seen a drop in productivity, as a rule.

Mywhole department now works since covid basically 3 days in, 2 days working from home.

Not sure if we are odd ball, but seems to work alright.

 

[Belz...]

I was just trying to work out which you mean aren't coming out of employers pockets.

I said "UBI and minimum wage" and then said "the former" doesn't come from the employer. I thought English was your first language? It means "the first one", which is UBI. Sheesh.

If it is a UBI, some poor prick has to pay for it, and the easiest people to hit are small businesses.

What are you even talking about? UBI comes from the government.

 

[cullennz]

I said "UBI and minimum wage" and then said "the former" doesn't come from the employer. I thought English was your first language? It means "the first one", which is UBI. Sheesh.



What are you even talking about? UBI comes from the government.

Not being funny but do you not understand taxes have to actually pay for it.

Money for a UBI does not appear out of thin air.

It will either be more tax on the middle or small business

 

[dirtywick]

It's perhaps worth pointing out that there's the beginning of a trend towards bringing in a 4 day working week. The 5 day/40 hour working week is actually less than a hundred years old. Companies that have tried the 4 day week in recent times haven't seen a drop in productivity, as a rule.

I work a 3 day work week now but they're 12's, I used to work 4 10's before that. Before that I worked a swing shift which is too complicated to explain. If you guys are working less than 40 that's great, but to me 40 hours is 40 hours no matter how you divide it up.

Not having to work as much for disposable income, and really giving everyone some disposable income to keep the economy moving, is the only appealing thing about UBI to me.

 

[Belz...]

Not being funny but do you not understand taxes have to actually pay for it.

Money for a UBI does not appear out of thin air.

It will either be more tax on the middle or small business

It's amusing how you pretend that the thread so far hasn't happened, a sort of fringe reset, as it were.

No, the taxes won't be garnered from small business owners only. This has been discussed already. Everyone is likely to pitch in.

 

[Squeegee Beckenheim]

Mywhole department now works since covid basically 3 days in, 2 days working from home.

Not sure if we are odd ball, but seems to work alright.

That's still a 5 day working week. I'm not talking about 4 days in the office, I'm talking about 3 day weekends being the norm. A 32 hour working week, although some variations have 4 10-hour days.

For example, this law firm switched to a 4 day week after a 5 month trial and gave its staff raises, and found that productivity went up. And that tracks with most other trials - productivity sometimes stays the same, but more often increases.

Studies have shown that people work more slowly as the week goes on, and that by Friday they may be taking twice as long to complete the same tasks. Moving to a 4 day week leads to better mental health, less stress, less burnout, and makes people more motivated and productive when they are at work.

This won't be a panacea, of course, and it won't work in every industry, but it's something that's gaining momentum and that economists, etc. are starting to get behind the idea of, and more companies are starting to adopt.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

The idea that people don't want to work is a right-wing stick used to further the myth of the "lazy poor" in order to justify not providing social safety nets.

I can only speak for myself but I don't want to work. I'd much rather have my own time for myself.

 

[lionking]

I can only speak for myself but I don't want to work. I'd much rather have my own time for myself.

Well I do. I’m 70 and can afford to retire but want to continue for another few years because I enjoy my work and it’s a good job.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

The cost of administering UBI is minimal compared to the cost of managing pensions and welfare.

I don't know why you keep replying with these soundbites that don't address the point. The cost of administering UBI in ADDITION to pensions and welfare is obviously higher than not doing so.

Obviously bottom wage earners are going to be better of even if they pay a relatively hefty marginal rate of tax from the first dollar they earn because they are now getting the UBI.

UBI is going to benefit people who get next to nothing now: dumpster divers and bottom wage earners and that is why extra funding will be needed. But since it won't be making people who already get money better off, it is not going to tank the economy.

As you describe it I really don't see any advantage to it over and above just giving people increased benefits then. Or even increasing minimum wage.

Whether it can be sold depends on how much misinformation gets spread and whether the "but they got something for nothing!" mentality can be overcome.

I don't think I've spread any misinformation here nor been subject to it and yet you have failed to convince me that it's beneficial. At the minute there dont seem to be any serious proposals to implement it anywhere other than as a novelty.

 

[psionl0]

I don't know why you keep replying with these soundbites that don't address the point. The cost of administering UBI in ADDITION to pensions and welfare is obviously higher than not doing so.

That was EXACTLY the point. Any (temporary) additional cost due to UBI is minimal.

As you describe it I really don't see any advantage to it over and above just giving people increased benefits then. Or even increasing minimum wage.

You don't see any advantage because you don't recognize the objective of phasing out the bureaucratic and unfair welfare system.