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Undue burden? Texas' plunging abortion numbers

3point14 said:
On the bright side, we can watch the crime rates in Texas over the next 25 years and see if the Freakonomics guys were right.
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TBH, IIRC they only found about 1/3 of the crime drop since the 1970s due to abortion legalization, the other 2/3 roughly equal between tougher enforcement/more cops and longer sentences.
 
Beerina said:
TBH, IIRC they only found about 1/3 of the crime drop since the 1970s due to abortion legalization, the other 2/3 roughly equal between tougher enforcement/more cops and longer sentences.
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Odd, that's not my recollection of the findings at all.

I'm not saying you're wrong, it's tremendously likely my memory has let me down, but I seem to recall the authors pointing out that was that the perception was the zero tolerance stuff (Giuliani's?) had had an effect but that it actually hadn't and this was an error in people's perception.

Was leaded petrol also a factor they mentioned? Oh for an eidetic memory.
 
Beerina said:
TBH, IIRC they only found about 1/3 of the crime drop since the 1970s due to abortion legalization, the other 2/3 roughly equal between tougher enforcement/more cops and longer sentences.
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Half right:

Jessica Reyes said:
This implies that, between 1992 and 2002, the phase-out of lead from gasoline was responsible for approximately a 56% decline in violent crime. Sensitivity testing confirms the strength of these results. Results for murder are not robust if New York and the District of Columbia are included, but suggest a substantial elasticity as well. No significant effects are found for property crime. The effect of legalized abortion reported by Donohue and Levitt (2001) is largely unaffected, so that abortion accounts for a 29% decline in violent crime (elasticity 0.23), and similar declines in murder and property crime. Overall, the phase-out of lead and the legalization of abortion appear to have been responsible for significant reductions in violent crime rates.
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Link to paper

Summary: Legalizing Abortion = 29%, Unleading Gasoline = 56%
That only leaves 15% for all other factors (including "Tough on Crime"). There are, however, significant anomalies in New York and Washington DC. But those anomalies persist for models that use "Tough on Crime" as the primary motivator for the decrease.
 
Norman Alexander said:
How many Texas women who wanted an abortion but were denied or harassed have then had a "holiday" in Mexico for a few days?
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I don't know about that, but looking into the abortion laws south of the border, it appears that they are generally more strict than in the US:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Mexico

Induced abortion, or the voluntary termination of pregnancy, is a controversial issue in Mexico. The procedure is offered on request to any woman with up to twelve weeks into a pregnancy in Mexico City, but forbidden in 18 out of 32 Mexican state constitutions (except in case of rape) and only 13 allow it when the life of the mother is in danger.[1][2] As of April 2015, 138,792 abortions have been carried out in the capital city since its decriminalization (2007).[3] Conversely, more than a 679 women haven been accused or sentenced for abortion in conservative-leaning states, such as Guanajuato.[2][4]
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According to the United Nations, more than 500,000 Mexican women seek illegal abortions every year, with more than 2,000 dying from botched or unsafe procedures.[14][34]
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So for Americans there are probably better options than seeking either a legal or illegal abortion in Mexico.
 
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