UK Labour Party Leadership Contest 2017

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

It seems that a new leadership contest is inevitable after the election and the scuttlebutt seems to be that Yvette Cooper is the name in the ring.

Not someone I know a great deal about but she seems to be fairly run of the mill in terms of her voting record etc. A fairly sensible middle of the road option then? Would she have enough oomph to reenergise the party and win over Corbynites and Tories?

Will she be another victim of the ongoing schism between the PLP and the membership?

When do I start the 2018 leadership contest thread?

 

[The Don]

Will she be another victim of the ongoing schism between the PLP and the membership?

IMO yes, unless the Labour Party moderates are allowed to claim back control of the party. I see that there are two ways this could happen.

Momentum could be "purged" in the same way that Militant were purged back in the '80s - I'm not sure that could be done in this day and age.

Whilst Momentum are probably tied to the cause, there may be a large number of "fellow travelers" who might get bored and drift off.

 

[NWO Sentryman]

As I said before, it's a repeat of the 80s, except the centrists are tainted by the Iraq War as well as Blair's skulduggery within Labour. We'd be more likely to see a permanent split with the Centrists moving towards the Lib Dems.

 

[MikeG]

I'd look for competence and quality before being over concerned about the new leader's ideology, albeit you need to start from the premise that the party has to move back towards the middle ground of UK politics to stand any sort of chance of a re-birth. I've thrown these two names around before: Hillary Ben and Chuka Ummuna. Both would make strong candidates in my view.

Any list now, before the election, can only sensibly come from constituencies which have a Labour majority of greater than 10,000. Less than that and............well...........you can't really have a leader who isn't an MP, unless you are a mickey mouse party like Ukip or the Greens.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

IMO yes, unless the Labour Party moderates are allowed to claim back control of the party. I see that there are two ways this could happen.

Momentum could be "purged" in the same way that Militant were purged back in the '80s - I'm not sure that could be done in this day and age.

Whilst Momentum are probably tied to the cause, there may be a large number of "fellow travelers" who might get bored and drift off.

Did they resolve the issue on whether Corbyn would need to be nominated or is automatically on the ballot once and for all?

Some commentators suggested Cooper could be unopposed?

 

[MikeG]

The betting currently is as follows, starting with the favourite:

Yvette Cooper 9/4
Keir Starmer 5/1
Dan Jarvis 9/1
Clive Lewis 14/1
Lisa Nandy 14/1
Rebecca Long Bailey 14/1
Chuka Umunna 16/1
David Milliband 18/1

Clive Lewis will be lucky to be an MP, let alone leader, after the election. I wouldn't waste money on that bet.

 

[NWO Sentryman]

Regardless of who wins, Labour can look forward to a decade of wilderness at least.

 

[MikeG]

Yep. However, I hope that by 2022 they'll at least be an effective opposition.

 

[NWO Sentryman]

Yep. However, I hope that by 2022 they'll at least be an effective opposition.

Unfortunately, Iraq has so thoroughly toxified the centre (Especially if YC wins since she voted for the war) that we may very well see the party fracture permanently.

 

[angrysoba]

Regardless of who wins, Labour can look forward to a decade of wilderness at least.

It's not a particularly inspiring list, is it? Yvette Cooper appeared to be running on some lightweight feminist platform last time, which is not going to attract masses of voters who don't already vote Labour. She'd also be running against a female prime minister which would undercut any "female option" card. I don't remember any other policies that she had.

Chuka Umuna might appear wobbly given his previous leadership bid.

Maybe Dan Jarvis's story will play well, on the other hand.

They need to show what's wrong with the Tories and what they can offer instead and be clear about it.

 

[NWO Sentryman]

It's not a particularly inspiring list, is it? Yvette Cooper appeared to be running on some lightweight feminist platform last time, which is not going to attract masses of voters who don't already vote Labour. She'd also be running against a female prime minister which would undercut any "female option" card. I don't remember any other policies that she had.

Chuka Umuna might appear wobbly given his previous leadership bid.

Maybe Dan Jarvis's story will play well, on the other hand.

They need to show what's wrong with the Tories and what they can offer instead and be clear about it.

Dan Jarvis has consistently declined to run for personal reasons, even if he is the last best hope of Labour for all intents and purposes.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

It's not a particularly inspiring list, is it?

Welcome to the Labour Party 2017. Although in fact you could say that about a lot of the parties.

I don't know if it's just me, the impact of a generation of career politicians, or the impact of the media and social media weeding out anyone with anything slightly controversial to say but the trend in politics does seem to be towards completely bland middle of the road nonentities overall. There are exceptions of course but it seems to me that 20 years ago we had a lot more stronger personalities around.

Spitting Image in 2017 would have a fairly limited bunch to choose from. No wonder people like Farage and Trump get so much airtime.

 

[Darat]

Problem I see for Labour is that it's traditional union roots didn't spend time explaining why employee rights (and other rights) are still important to younger generations and new types of jobs. Folk in (for example) call centres don't see any reason to be in a union, to be represented and often would seem to object to the term "working class". Some of this is obviously because of the Conservative (and yes some Labour) policies to weaken the effectiveness of unions but much is because the unions did not keep up with the real changes happening in the world.

The Labour party needs to go back to grass roots and start to rebuild awareness of what it stands for: a real world example would be the terrible working conditions for those working for Sports Direct or Uber drivers - that is what Labour can help you with.

People have to relearn that government can make a difference for them and for those they care about.

 

[angrysoba]

Welcome to the Labour Party 2017. Although in fact you could say that about a lot of the parties.

I don't know if it's just me, the impact of a generation of career politicians, or the impact of the media and social media weeding out anyone with anything slightly controversial to say but the trend in politics does seem to be towards completely bland middle of the road nonentities overall. There are exceptions of course but it seems to me that 20 years ago we had a lot more stronger personalities around.

Spitting Image in 2017 would have a fairly limited bunch to choose from. No wonder people like Farage and Trump get so much airtime.

I agree. I think parties were filled up with members who ticked certain PR boxes. But people are probably tired of the polished images that scored well.

 

[NWO Sentryman]

Part of me wonders how Labour would have fared had John Smith lived.

 

[Darat]

Don't think they would have had quite the same landslide in 97, Blair and his team were "one of their own" - by that I mean the media darlings, networking with the right people and so on. He got away without a lot of the scrutiny that I think Smith would have gotten

 

[Undesired Walrus]

I wonder if too much emphasis is put on 'moving back to the centre'. Look at the Labour Manifesto of 2017, and then look at the 1997 one. The 97 manifesto is far more radical than the one today, the latter of which has no new ideas and is radical only in the extreme amounts it promises to spend on existing services. The 97 one promised (and later delivered) profound constitutional change as well as implementing dramatic new institutions (minimum wage for example) that still hold up today. For all the Corbynites bluster, their policies going forward are unimaginative and resemble Ed Miliband's doomed campaign.

I don't think the policies would matter all that much if you had a genuinely engaging, competent leader that the public would warm to. The electorate are a lot smarter than given credit for and must look at Corbyn as someone incapable of listening to others of opposing views and is utterly incompetent.

Have to say, and I know I'll get crucified for saying so, but the leader Labour needs and always did is David Miliband.


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[Giz]

Have to say, and I know I'll get crucified for saying so, but the leader Labour needs and always did is David Miliband.


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You know that. I know that. What will it take for momentum and the unions to realize that?

 

[Darat]

Him standing?

 

[MikeG]

.....What will it take for momentum and the unions to realize that?

Not the worst election result since WW2, certainly. McCluskey has already said that 200 seats would be a good result for Corbyn. That sounds very like him preparing the ground for Corbyn to stay on, whatever the result.