UK General Election

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

Yeah, I know. Direct representation plus first past the post voting is a Bad thing.

One more thing it can affect is Scotland. It is conceivable SNP will also receive the benefits of the upswing. They're a solid Bremain party, which is an issue youngsters broke almost 3:1 in favor on the referendum. It is therefore conceivable they will benefit from the surge.



It does seem most likely at this point. I'm hoping for a major surprise, but that's because I'm an incurable optimist, not because there is a realistic chance of it happening.

McHrozni

There's almost no upside for the SNP here. They already have all but three of the available seats. So even if they gained from the surge they would be no better off.

The only possible benefit is that they help cancel out any anti indyref surge towards the Tories.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

As a Labour party member I have to say that I'm looking at the silver lining in all this. May is going to get a thumping majority and push through hard Brexit but Corbyn will be gone and the incompetents who couldn't unseat him are probably going to take a hammering too.

That means that by 2027 the fallout from Brexit will be thoroughly eating the Tories, who will have to shoulder the blame for everything (unless something very surprising happens), and a resurgent Labour party will have a chance at undoing some of the mess using a centre-Left approach with perhaps some good old state ownership of the essentials (trains, power, water) thrown in.

I might be a bit delusional but I live in hope.

If Labour is wiped out wont it just mean that they swing back to being a centre right party in disguise again? State ownership?!?!! That's commie talk that got Corbyn embarrassed!

 

[Camillus]

If Labour is wiped out wont it just mean that they swing back to being a centre right party in disguise again?

Not with the current method of electing the leader*. Labour will remain left, but hopefully with someone who can tie their own shoelaces and build bridges in charge.

State ownership?!?!! That's commie talk that got Corbyn embarrassed!

It's not state ownership of essential services that got Corbyn embarrassed it was being Jerermy *********** Corbyn. Nothing he can say or do at this point, no matter how sensible and benign, can achieve anything**.

Most people I speak to don't give two hoots about the state ownership of rail, power and water because private ownership of all three hasn't delivered anything like what was promised.

*People are often surprised to discover that the Labour party has a lot of left wing members. I blame Tony Blair.

**Although him versus May in a televised unscripted debate might cause a few giggles given how dreadful she is at off-the-cuff encounters.

 

[Information Analyst]

Most people I speak to don't give two hoots about the state ownership of rail, power and water because private ownership of all three hasn't delivered anything like what was promised.

Wait... what?!

 

[Rolfe]

There's almost no upside for the SNP here. They already have all but three of the available seats. So even if they gained from the surge they would be no better off.

The only possible benefit is that they help cancel out any anti indyref surge towards the Tories.

Patience, grasshopper. The hard-core unionist vote is coalescing round the Conservatives, boosting the party beyond its natural support level in Scotland. Some of it may well un-coalesce once it has thought about it for a bit. But whether it does or not, the present Tory support levels being reported are at about the maximum for the hard-core British nationalist vote in Scotland. That's all there is.

The SNP may well lose a few seats in June. It's still probably going to end up with over 50. Certainly a very comfortable majority of the 59 available. The sort of result we'd have bitten your hand off for in 2015, except we fluked it even better under these particular circumstances.

The general election isn't the most important vote that Scotland's going to be faced with in the foreseeable future, and the way things are developing isn't looking too dismal for the important one.

 

[MikeG]

None of the Scots here have answered the point I raised some days ago. I'm genuinely interested in your thoughts.

Assume exactly the scenario that Rolfe has just outlined: an increase in the Conservative vote in Scotland, and a decrease in the SNP vote and seats. The numbers aren't important for the sake of this question. If...........if............the Tories have it in their GE manifesto that they won't be allowing an Indyref 2 in this next parliament if re-elected, and they then get the stonking great majority that everyone predicts, what then?

Sturgeon will demand and whine, and May will say no, it's the democratic will of the electorate. What are the SNP's options then?

 

[Craig B]

None of the Scots here have answered the point I raised some days ago. I'm genuinely interested in your thoughts.

Assume exactly the scenario that Rolfe has just outlined: an increase in the Conservative vote in Scotland, and a decrease in the SNP vote and seats. The numbers aren't important for the sake of this question. If...........if............the Tories have it in their GE manifesto that they won't be allowing an Indyref 2 in this next parliament if re-elected, and they then get the stonking great majority that everyone predicts, what then?

Sturgeon will demand and whine, and May will say no, it's the democratic will of the electorate. What are the SNP's options then?

You mean the democratic will of the electorate in England, that there should be no referendum in Scotland? I think the SNP could ask for nothing better. That would be a propaganda gift from Heaven.

 

[MikeG]

You mean the democratic will of the electorate in England, that there should be no referendum in Scotland? I think the SNP could ask for nothing better. That would be a propaganda gift from Heaven.

No, no, I mean the democratic will of the UK electorate.

 

[Craig B]

No, no, I mean the democratic will of the UK electorate.

That is my point. A majority in England, in a matter affecting Scotland, is a U.K. decision against which the Scots have no democratic redress?

Then the Union is doomed. Doomed, I tell ye! The SNP could imagine nothing more agreeable in its wettest dreams.

What it might then think it has a moral right to do, is to force, or merely await, a Holyrood election and stand on a UDI manifesto. That's generally how countries have gained independence. Ireland for example following the 1918 General Election.

But in Scotland we already have an autonomous parliament and won't have to create one in the face of UK hostility, as was done in Ireland. Also the SNP already enjoys total supremacy in the Scottish representation in Westminster.

However, in this scenario, as in the conventional Indyref2 scenario, it is the democratically expressed will of the Scottish people that will determine the issue. If that is for independence it will happen. If not, not.

 

[McHrozni]

None of the Scots here have answered the point I raised some days ago. I'm genuinely interested in your thoughts.

Assume exactly the scenario that Rolfe has just outlined: an increase in the Conservative vote in Scotland, and a decrease in the SNP vote and seats. The numbers aren't important for the sake of this question. If...........if............the Tories have it in their GE manifesto that they won't be allowing an Indyref 2 in this next parliament if re-elected, and they then get the stonking great majority that everyone predicts, what then?

Then the Scotts have decided to throw in their lots with UK, for better or for worse.

A more realistic scenario, what if a major fusion power breakthrough makes all current energy resources redundant, derailing a vital aspect of Scottish economy? What then?

McHrozni

 

[MikeG]

I take your point of course. What this really amounts to is that there is nothing that the SNP will take as a "no", unless there were a Scotland only plebiscite on whether or not to hold a second referendum, and of course, even in the unlikely event of the SNP winning that, May wouldn't be bound by it.

 

[Ambrosia]

Assume exactly the scenario that Rolfe has just outlined: an increase in the Conservative vote in Scotland, and a decrease in the SNP vote and seats. The numbers aren't important for the sake of this question.

I think the numbers are important.

There are 59 Westminster seats up for grabs in Scotland if the SNP wins less than ~40 then there is no chance in hell of indyref2.

40-45 I think there probably will be indyref2, more than that then almost certainly.

Assuming there is another referendum, whether that ultimately leads to independence is anyones guess. The June election is absolutely going to be framed around it in Scotland. I think if the SNP bag more than 45 MPs this time around then we are headed for an independent Scotland sooner rather than later.

 

[Rolfe]

Assume exactly the scenario that Rolfe has just outlined: an increase in the Conservative vote in Scotland, and a decrease in the SNP vote and seats. The numbers aren't important for the sake of this question.

The numbers are important.

If the SNP gets a majority of seats in Scotland, polling over 40%, and the Tories have only a handful, polling around 30%, who has won the election in Scotland? Bear in mind that the SNP percentage vote and percentage of seats won in Scotland is likely to be significantly higher than the Conservative percentage vote and percentage of seats won in the UK as a whole.

As someone said on Twitter, it's like saying, you only won the league by 6 points, when you won it by 10 points last year, so that counts as a loss and we're going to give the cup to the (distant) runners-up.

Sturgeon already has an unassailable mandate for another independence referendum on the back of the 2016 Holyrood result, followed by passing legislation to that effect in Holyrood by a majority vote. She doesn't need another mandate. She most certainly has war-gamed all this and has a strategy worked out. It will be interesting to see what she does.

 

[Ambrosia]

A more realistic scenario, what if a major fusion power breakthrough makes all current energy resources redundant, derailing a vital aspect of Scottish economy? What then?

I'd be dancing in the street if they figured out fusion power generation in my lifetime.

Whenever that does happen, oil is still a highly useful commodity (see plastic). There's the recurrent arguments re fossil fuels that oil is too valuable to burn.

 

[Rolfe]

I think the numbers are important.

There are 59 Westminster seats up for grabs in Scotland if the SNP wins less than ~40 then there is no chance in hell of indyref2.

40-45 I think there probably will be indyref2, more than that then almost certainly.

Assuming there is another referendum, whether that ultimately leads to independence is anyones guess. The June election is absolutely going to be framed around it in Scotland. I think if the SNP bag more than 45 MPs this time around then we are headed for an independent Scotland sooner rather than later.

Cross-posting. Indeed, the SNP is polling very well and seems set to exceed people's reasonable expectations going into the 2015 election. The fact that these expectations were exceeded on that occasion doesn't move the goal posts as Mike would like to move them.

 

[Ambrosia]

Cross-posting. Indeed, the SNP is polling very well and seems set to exceed people's reasonable expectations going into the 2015 election.

I think a small majority of SNP seats isn't going to be enough to trigger indyref2. Though looking at present polling, and the way the election is getting framed in Scotland I can't see the SNP getting less than 45 seats.

 

[MikeG]

........The fact that these expectations were exceeded on that occasion doesn't move the goal posts as Mike would like to move them.

Please don't do this. I asked a simple question, completely un-loaded, and have made no points on the subject whatever. I won't venture into the Indyref thread because of this sort of stuff. I'm not being confrontational, I am being politely curious and interested.

 

[Rolfe]

I think a small majority of SNP seats isn't going to be enough to trigger indyref2. Though looking at present polling, and the way the election is getting framed in Scotland I can't see the SNP getting less than 45 seats.

Indyref2 was all set to happen within the next couple of years without this election even happening. The election is certainly not needed to "gain a mandate". I think it's very unlikely it can deliver any result that will change the overall course of events.

The SNP is polling extremely high by any normal metric. Or even by moderately abnormal ones! The fact that a bunch of circumstances combined two years ago to produce a result that was well into "pinch me I'm dreaming" territory doesn't change that.

Also, the SNP's mandate for another referendum comes from the Holyrood result, which is another thing the result of this election can't change.

 

[Rolfe]

Please don't do this. I asked a simple question, completely un-loaded, and have made no points on the subject whatever. I won't venture into the Indyref thread because of this sort of stuff. I'm not being confrontational, I am being politely curious and interested.

Whether or not you realise it, the way you frame your questions is very revealing of your basic standpoint, thinking, prejudices and agenda. Of course replies are going to acknowledge that.

 

[Archie Gemmill Goal]

I take your point of course. What this really amounts to is that there is nothing that the SNP will take as a "no", unless there were a Scotland only plebiscite on whether or not to hold a second referendum, and of course, even in the unlikely event of the SNP winning that, May wouldn't be bound by it.

What an amazing leap to a conclusion. Nothing of the sort was said.

Why should any result challenge the Scottish Government and their manifesto they were elected on?

What combination of Ge17 results would you say should cancel Brexit?

How many SNP seats would be required to make May rethink her manifesto commitments?

England doesn't get a say in Scottish independence. Take that point on board and absorb it carefully.