UK - Election 2015

[ddt]

Try this for size

[qimg]http://i1297.photobucket.com/albums/ag33/MikeAG1/Loser%202_zpsacwvceta.jpg[/qimg]

Done.

ETA:

Nice one MikeG

Compared to the prospect of an avatar with the Great Peroxided Leader, I am quite relieved.

 

[The Don]

Almost certainly wrong (and hyperbolically wrong). I assume you're referring here to the promised EU in/out referendum? I will tell you now, with more than 95% certainty, that the result of the referendum will be for the UK to remain part of the EU....<snip>....

I wish I shared your sanguine assessment.

UKIP support is entirely anti-EU

My experience of rural Conservatives is that they are vociferously anti-EU

A significant proportion of Labour supporters are also anti-EU

Large sections of the press are anti-EU

The British public are easily swayed by baubles

Almost certainly wrong (and more hyperbole to boot). This is sounding more like the rant of a devastated Labour voter than a dispassionate analysis of the situation, I'm afraid. The limited austerity measures will almost certainly lead to continued slow recovery.

I didn't make it clear, the recession to which I refer is the one that would result from the UK leaving the EU. I agree that austerity will not cause a recession and that if the UK does not leave the EU, the slow recovery will continue.

Most of the electorate don't know what they are voting for, other than in extremely broad terms. That's a political truism. People vote overwhelmingly for the party that they and their parents/friends/peers have always voted for. The small proportion who don't vote for personalities rather than issues.

A US political commentator once (correctly, though exaggerated for effect) stated that you could put a monkey up as the Republican presidential candidate and it would still garner 40% of the popular vote. Likewise if you put a monkey up as Democratic candidate. The same is broadly true in the UK - 30% will always vote Labour, 30% will always vote Tory, 25% will always vote for one or other of the remaining parties. The remainder are more likely than not to be swayed by intangible "soft" factors - in this instance, the chief factor by a huge margin (in my opinion) was the negative sentiment for Ed Miliband. That's democracy, comrade.......

I agree that each party has a strong and largely immobile base. Labour voters switching to UKIP or Conservative is, IMO, a sign of stupidity.

BTW, am not comrade.

 

[lonepinealex]

<snip>

My experience of rural Conservatives is that they are vociferously anti-EU

<snip>

And that is a classic example of turkeys voting for Christmas. The EU props up rural Britian with the ludicrous single farm payments and the influence of the CAP.

 

[GlennB]

My big fear is that leaving the EU - even if I've been able to change the business - will mean that young talented people will leave the UK and return to Europe and there'll be tens or hundreds of thousands of retirees who have lost their right to live in the EU.

Which would be interesting for the B household Mind you, if it came to it I strongly suspect that existing reciprocal arrangements might still be respected. However, I seriously doubt the UK will vote "quit". The Tories will campaign ferociously against it and, I suppose, will word the referendum as they choose.

 

[anglolawyer]

Which would be interesting for the B household Mind you, if it came to it I strongly suspect that existing reciprocal arrangements might still be respected. However, I seriously doubt the UK will vote "quit". The Tories will campaign ferociously against it and, I suppose, will word the referendum as they choose.

So will Labour, the Lib Dems (if still around) and the SNP.

 

[MikeG]

So will Labour, the Lib Dems (if still around) and the SNP.

Just call it now for us, AL. It'll save us a whole lot of sweating & worrying .

 

[The Don]

Which would be interesting for the B household Mind you, if it came to it I strongly suspect that existing reciprocal arrangements might still be respected.

I was thinking more along the lines of your right to reside.

However, I seriously doubt the UK will vote "quit". The Tories will campaign ferociously against it and, I suppose, will word the referendum as they choose.

I'm not sure at all about that. Large parts (most ?) of the Conservative party is strongly anti-EU. Even if David Cameron gets significant concessions from the EU then they will still be implacably opposed and if he doesn't then the situation will be worse.

If the Conservative leadership do campaign ferociously to retain EU membership they risk driving large parts of the party into the arms of UKIP.

 

[The Don]

So will Labour, the Lib Dems (if still around) and the SNP.

You're right that Labour are officially europhiles but there is a significant eurosceptic minority:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politic...ver-eu-emerge-mps-launch-pro-referendum-group

I don't share everyone's sanguine assessment. Recent(ish) polls show a majority in favour of leaving and that's before the "get yer duty free back" campaign even starts:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/21/majority-electorate-vote-uk-leave-eu-poll

 

[MikeG]

......If the Conservative leadership do campaign ferociously to retain EU membership they risk driving large parts of the party into the arms of UKIP.

This is the most interesting issue facing the upcoming parliament. The Conservatives may well have to agree to a version of a "free vote" or "conscience vote" for their MPs to deal with this. Bear in mind that Labour isn't 100% pro EU, and will probably have a similar problem on a smaller scale.

It'll be interesting to watch the choreographing of them campaigning on the issue in Scotland as well.

 

[lonepinealex]

Hmm, there are a lot of anti-Europe Tory backbenchers. Still though, this isn't going to be like AV or the Scottish referendum. There isn't going to be an entire party campaigning for the out vote (even if the ballot is a straight in / out choice).

But there's always the possibility of an omnishambles putting a spanner in the works, especially considering the Tories' unique brand of vicious infighting.

 

[MikeG]

........Recent(ish) polls show a majority in favour of leaving and that's before the "get yer duty free back" campaign even starts:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/21/majority-electorate-vote-uk-leave-eu-poll

When the electorate have read and heard for a year about "massive concessions by the EU", then I can't believe for a minute that the numbers will stay as they are. Thing is, as the EU is run AT THE MOMENT, there is every reason to vote to get out........but the referendum won't be on how it is now, but on how it will be after 2 years of negotiations. Negotiations in which the government hand has just been immensely strengthened. The EU will make concessions, and they'll be spun like crazy.

 

[GlennB]

I was thinking more along the lines of your right to reside.

OK, but I can't see that being withdrawn. Apart from the question of retirees there's a lot of EU citizens at permanent work in the UK, and vice-versa. It would be chaos.

I'm not sure at all about that. Large parts (most ?) of the Conservative party is strongly anti-EU. Even if David Cameron gets significant concessions from the EU then they will still be implacably opposed and if he doesn't then the situation will be worse.

If the Conservative leadership do campaign ferociously to retain EU membership they risk driving large parts of the party into the arms of UKIP.

But 'a lot' of Tories are also vociferously pro-hanging. Anyway, I'm off to Paddy Power to see if they're offering odds. If halfway decent I'll be betting a tidy sum on "stay".

eta:

1.57 "stay", 2.25 "leave". Disappointingly the max bet is only £45, so I was limited to that

Fancy an avatar bet, The Don? I suspect it's one you'd happily lose

 

[Wudang]

A US political commentator once (correctly, though exaggerated for effect) stated that you could put a monkey up as the Republican presidential candidate and it would still garner 40% of the popular vote.

The same has often been said of Labour votes in Glasgow so I was very surprised to see the SNP take all of Glasgow. The "red Tories" campaign against Labour seems to have struck a chord. OTOH the dislike a lot of my usually-Labour pals in Scotland have for Jim Murphy and other Labour apparatchiks was pretty strong.

 

[The Don]

Fancy an avatar bet, The Don? I suspect it's one you'd happily lose

I would happily lose that avatar bet but in the event I win, I won't be in any state to claim my "prize". It's too an important thing to me to do something as frivolous over - sorry to be Buzz Killington.

 

[The Don]

But 'a lot' of Tories are also vociferously pro-hanging.

And in the event of a referendum on the subject we'd almost certainly get the death penalty back again, particularly if there had been a series of particularly gruesome crimes.

 

[platonov]

It appears the pollsters got it wrong – although Survation are claiming that they had an accurate (in light of the result) phone poll on the 6th which they suppressed as it was an outlier. Like the royal baby photo perhaps!

So, a majority of 16 for the tories and an EU ref. on the way. And if that isn’t enough good news - the ‘bastards’ will be back and they might be harder to control than the Lib Dems.
They will have more clout than the SNP – in Westminster.

 

[ddt]

And in the event of a referendum on the subject we'd almost certainly get the death penalty back again, particularly if there had been a series of particularly gruesome crimes.

Would the question of such a referendum be "Are you in favour of reintroducing the death penalty and leaving the Council of Europe"? Death penalty means tearing up the ECHR and thus CoE membership.

The UK would be on the same level, then, as Belarus.

 

[ohms]

Recent(ish) polls show a majority in favour of leaving and that's before the "get yer duty free back" campaign even starts:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/21/majority-electorate-vote-uk-leave-eu-poll

That contradicts the general trend in polling which shows slight growing support for remaining in the EU:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propo...Kingdom_membership_of_the_European_Union#2015

 

[The Don]

Would the question of such a referendum be "Are you in favour of reintroducing the death penalty and leaving the Council of Europe"? Death penalty means tearing up the ECHR and thus CoE membership.

The UK would be on the same level, then, as Belarus.

I have no idea. Presumably this is one of the many reasons that the matter has not been put to the electorate.

For certain crimes support is at 60% mark

http://www.ipsos-mori-generations.com/Death-Penalty

For many people in favour of the death penalty, the opportunity to leave the Council of Europe (and be free of the pesky ECHR) would be an added incentive.

 

[LondonJohn]

When the electorate have read and heard for a year about "massive concessions by the EU", then I can't believe for a minute that the numbers will stay as they are. Thing is, as the EU is run AT THE MOMENT, there is every reason to vote to get out........but the referendum won't be on how it is now, but on how it will be after 2 years of negotiations. Negotiations in which the government hand has just been immensely strengthened. The EU will make concessions, and they'll be spun like crazy.

Exactly.

There is a very small number of total die-hard nutter anti-EU people, who are totally impervious to rational thought. There's also a small number of anti-EU people who think they've made an informed decision on the matter, but who probably have not. And there's a lot of people who say they are anti-EU without even really thinking about it at all.

I am hugely (overwhelmingly) confident that once the referendum comes around, there will be a significant "yes" vote for staying in. As you point out, the EU will have made some concessions which will be waved around by Cameron as proof that the EU is changing to accommodate the UK. And all the major political parties (Con, Lab, SNP*, LibDem) will be campaigning for a "yes" vote. The vote will be yes.


* Though one could envisage a Machiavellian situation where the SNP might even campaign for "no" on some sort of spurious grounds related to the UK not getting a good deal - whereas an independent Scotland, on the other hand, would take its proper place in Europe. Though I think that's a step too far, and it won't happen.