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UK - Election 2015

Lothian said:
Thanks for confirming, as I said, that the Exit poll 'predicted number of seats' is calculated on a seat by seat basis.
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Jeeeez

Look again at what I wrote, and read that article linked to above about the methodology of the exit poll and its outputs.

For the final time: the predicted number of seats for each party in the exit poll is calculated based on a seat-by-seat analysis, which itself is calculated on a mixture of actual polling outcomes and statistical algorithms applied to those numbers (and changes in those numbers between elections).

BUT: the outputs for the exit poll are not given on a seat-by-seat basis.. They are only given on a total-seats-per-party prediction basis.

The seat-by-seat predictions being used by the BBC are a reverse engineering of the exit poll's output. They may indeed differ for any particular seat from the predicted result calculated in the exit poll's internal workings.

Maybe that makes things clearer. Maybe not. Either way, I'm now done talking about it :)
 
Rat said:
There have been plenty of interviews that I've heard with British folk of Pakistani heritage (i.e. with Pakistani parents) who are voting UKIP, because the country is full and immigration has got to stop. I just don't know where to begin.
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:boggled:

According to UKpollingreport, Skwirszynski is a banker and economist. Maybe a buddy of Farage from his former profession?
 
I remember hearing about a certain MP who is a big believer in Astrology some few months ago. Any news on his fate?
 
So the projections I'm looking at has Conservative + LibDem right in the sweet spot where a majority would be determined by whether the Sinn Féin MPs will take their seats. I'm an outside and pretty new observer to this but I've seen speculation they might if it would make a difference.

Thoughts from the better informed?
 
According to the exit poll Con/LD pact will still have a majority, albeit a razor-thin one.

Curious about that though - IIRC, they usually plug in actual results to refine the exit poll as the night goes on, so it gets steadily more accurate. But this exit poll has stayed the same all night long. Are they not doing any refining, or is the exit poll just so good that refinement makes no difference?
 
So with Stephen Kinnock now an MP, is this the first time the spouse of the political leader of one country has been elected to the parliamentary body of another country?
 
LondonJohn said:
Check back on the 2005 and 2010 exit polls vs actual results. They are extremely accurate, and getting more accurate every time.
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Turns out they were pretty accurate for Scotland after all. I've been up all night watching the TV in open-mouthed astonishment. Words can barely convey the magnitude of this political transformation, so I will remain silent for now, have a cup of tea and go to bed.
 
Puppycow said:
I remember hearing about a certain MP who is a big believer in Astrology some few months ago. Any news on his fate?
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Increased his majority massively. Lib Dems who were close second were punished by morons.

I hate my constituency.
 
HUZZAAAH ,just of to bed. Stayed up all night with mates watching election. 56 seats out of 59 for the SNP,brilliant.
 
I am sorry Galloway lost his seat. The commons has lost a valuable and excoriating critic of UK foreign policy in the ME.
 
Craig B said:
Turns out they were pretty accurate for Scotland after all. I've been up all night watching the TV in open-mouthed astonishment. Words can barely convey the magnitude of this political transformation, so I will remain silent for now, have a cup of tea and go to bed.
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I heard the exit poll, was cheered and although I woke several times and listened to latest news, slept well! :)
fingers crossed that the ghastly Nigel Farrage fails.
 
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According to the coverage on the Beeb last night 316 seats would give Cameron a workable minority government because of Sinn Finn not sitting at Westminster. He wouldn't need a coalition. It's only if he gets less than 310, then he may need some support from the remaining Liberals and / or DUP. The DUP are unlikely to want as many concessions off them than the Libs.
 
Was shocked last night by the exist polls.

Am flabbergasted by the way the actual results seem to be turning out.

Whilst there are various Conservative policies I'm unhappy about (further NHS privatisation, disposal of social housing, (botched) austerity, we're all in it together (unless you're poor)) the biggest single thing that will affect me is the EU Referendum. If it votes "OUT" then I think that it'll be disasterous for the UK economy and fatal for my business :(

I think it's also a nail in the coffin for coalition government and the politics of consensus. I think this gives the Conservatives carte blanche for a lurch to the right in England. :mad:
 
As much as I detest Farrage and the UKIP, their election result surely points out just how flawed the UK voting system is. They have recieved more than twice as many votes as the SNP, but only a sole MP elected thus far.
 
KDLarsen said:
As much as I detest Farrage and the UKIP, their election result surely points out just how flawed the UK voting system is. They have recieved more than twice as many votes as the SNP, but only a sole MP elected thus far.
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The flipside is that Scotland (and other areas like rural England that vote a single way) gets the representation that reflects their politics.
 
More conservative MPs in Scotland than Labour MPs. I didn't think I live to see that day again.
 
Well that's he first election promise broken, with Ashdown refusing to eat his hat.
 
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