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UK - Election 2015

Francesca R said:
Because it's completely different of course. Or something.
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Yes, you have the Unionist view. That is why the promises of "Devo Max" are a fraud and sham. In the opinion of the people who "vowed" it, we no more deserve it than any other five million people chosen at random across the UK.

That is what they really think.

This is hypocritical nonsense, therefore. The people who solemnly swore to it are liars.
WESTMINSTER’s main party leaders today set aside their differences to promise that a No vote will mean a stronger Scottish Parliament and total protection for the NHS.

David Cameron , Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg have signed up to a historic joint statement that was demanded by the Daily Record on behalf of the people of Scotland.

In their own words, they pledge to work together to transfer more powers to Holyrood if Scots reject independence on Thursday. The Prime Minister, his Lib Dem deputy and the Labour leader also promise to ensure that no one other than the Scottish Parliament can cut vital public services such as the NHS.

The unprecedented agreement was signed after the Record demanded that the leaders clearly explain what they are offering so the Scottish people can decide if it is a better alternative to independence.

The agreement was brokered by former prime minister Gordon Brown and Scottish Labour. It will give Scots who remain unsure about separation complete confidence that, if there is a No vote, Scotland will still be given much more control over its future.

Brown has already outlined a fast-tracked timetable for transferring more powers from Westminster to Holyrood if Scots vote No. This new pledge means that all the parties with a chance of forming the next UK government have guaranteed the “extensive” new powers will be put on the statute book next year.
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NWO Sentryman said:
If neither party gets a majority in 2015, what would be the most likely coalitions (assuming the Lib Dems get crushed)?

As for Trident, with an aggressive Russia going on a clay grabbing spree, the "scrap trident" lot come across as quite naive.
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Assuming the Lib Dems get crushed (decent assumption), there will likely be no coalition majority government, unless there is a serious backdown on either the SNP's or Labour's side regarding Trident renewal.

However, my assumption is that Labour and Tories poll roughly the same numbers. If Labour can sneak ahead by a decent handful of seats (may not take more than a few percentage points) then even a rekt Lib dem party may have enough seats to firm up majority Lab-Lib.

The SNP being kingmakers is far from certain, and no longer relies on Scotland voting SNP, but rather LibDem and to a lesser extent Tory votes moving to Labour in key Tory marginals. Will that happen? Stay tuned.
 
I'm interested how a proposal to allow homes up to a value of £1m to be passed onto the next generation (although it's not quite as portrayed, they're not increasing the inheritance allowance by £675k, they're increasing it by £175k and then assuming that the parents will "double up" the allowance).

This means that the people who will benefit will be those whose parents' home is valued between £650k and £1m, hardly the rank and file.

It also means that if you're at or close to the threshold, even if the house is passed on inheritance tax-free, the rest of the estate will be taxed.

Doesn't this create a bubble in housing at around the £650k-£1m mark ? If I was a parent with a house worth £300k and other assets worth £700k, wouldn't it make sense to go and buy a bigger house so I could make full use of the 2x£175k "family home allowance".

BBC Story: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32271505

By all means pander to your core, but don't give the impression that you're trying to help everyone out.
 
malicus said:
The SNP being kingmakers is far from certain.....
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I agree. If their demands are too excessive the other parties could take the view that the price of SNP support outweighs the benefits and decide to run a minority government instead, knowing that the SNP will not vote against them where their policies align and they may be able to count on the support of other parties in the case where the SNP is opposed on principle (like Trident).
 
Craig B said:
.........This is hypocritical nonsense, therefore. The people who solemnly swore to it are liars.
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Your cynicism and apoplexy on this subject know no bounds. You can't declare people liars because they haven't done something by April which they have until December to do. Well, let me re-phrase that. You can and will declare them liars, constantly, but the fair-minded would note that 4 months into the year in which these pledges are to be delivered is rather too early to be declaring that the hateful English have let down the poor benighted Scots yet again.
 
The Don said:
I'm interested how a proposal to allow homes up to a value of £1m to be passed onto the next generation (although it's not quite as portrayed, they're not increasing the inheritance allowance by £675k, they're increasing it by £175k and then assuming that the parents will "double up" the allowance).

This means that the people who will benefit will be those whose parents' home is valued between £650k and £1m, hardly the rank and file.

It also means that if you're at or close to the threshold, even if the house is passed on inheritance tax-free, the rest of the estate will be taxed.

Doesn't this create a bubble in housing at around the £650k-£1m mark ? If I was a parent with a house worth £300k and other assets worth £700k, wouldn't it make sense to go and buy a bigger house so I could make full use of the 2x£175k "family home allowance".

BBC Story: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32271505

By all means pander to your core, but don't give the impression that you're trying to help everyone out.
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Also London/SE centric. I live in the far north of Cumbria. The average house price here is approximately 1/3 of what you pay down south (as an example, the average small terraced house is around 75-80K - and I remember some friends buying a similar place in Notting Hill for just a tad off a million over ten years ago). . The change might appear fair to Londoners whose semi is worth close to a million, but up here it just looks like politicians - as ever - thinking England stops somewhere between Birmingham and Manchester.
 
MikeG said:
Your cynicism and apoplexy on this subject know no bounds. You can't declare people liars because they haven't done something by April which they have until December to do. Well, let me re-phrase that. You can and will declare them liars, constantly, but the fair-minded would note that 4 months into the year in which these pledges are to be delivered is rather too early to be declaring that the hateful English have let down the poor benighted Scots yet again.
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I'm saying that if people believe this, as they in fact do, than it's hypocritical of them to offer vows of Devo Max to scottish voters, whether they fulfil their vows in April or not.
Information Analyst said:
How is that any different from Tory-voting areas feeling aggrieved when Labour gets in, or indeed non-Scottish Labour-voting also areas when the Tories get in?
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The Don said:
I agree. If their demands are too excessive the other parties could take the view that the price of SNP support outweighs the benefits and decide to run a minority government instead, knowing that the SNP will not vote against them where their policies align and they may be able to count on the support of other parties in the case where the SNP is opposed on principle (like Trident).
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I personally feel the SNP would lose no sleep whatsoever working without formal agreements. They can then be seen by their supporters as uncompromising, trustworthy and honourable, and true to their pledges eg Trident.

Yeah. Uncompromising, trustworthy and honourable. Sounds just like UK politics to me........right?

The last few years have seen large change in voting habits, and massive engagement of the public in politics. Not least in Scotland. Everyone wants to start with the 2011 Holyrood elections, but really 2010 for me was the kicker. The Tories couldn't win a majority against Brown's floundering Labour, with the economy the way it was (is). To me, that was stunning. From that point we had 2011 Holyrood, the rise (guarded use of the word) of UKIP, Indyref and now the 2015 UK and 2016 Holyrood votes. Interesting times.

The SNP are on the crest of a wave. I don't know if anyone could have seen this level of support for a GE. But the beach is approaching, with a heady mix of hope and fear.

As an SNP member, a Yes voter, I do not think full Scottish independence will ever happen. Increased fiscal powers, likely short of FFA with oil revenues etc, are more likely. And I think that's what the voting Scottish public will come to represent over the next parliamentary terms. To me, independance following FFA(lite) would be nigh impossible.
 
malicus said:
Assuming the Lib Dems get crushed (decent assumption), there will likely be no coalition majority government, unless there is a serious backdown on either the SNP's or Labour's side regarding Trident renewal.

However, my assumption is that Labour and Tories poll roughly the same numbers. If Labour can sneak ahead by a decent handful of seats (may not take more than a few percentage points) then even a rekt Lib dem party may have enough seats to firm up majority Lab-Lib.

The SNP being kingmakers is far from certain, and no longer relies on Scotland voting SNP, but rather LibDem and to a lesser extent Tory votes moving to Labour in key Tory marginals. Will that happen? Stay tuned.
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If Europe last Year was anything to go by, I think the Lib Dems might be going to Parliament in the same taxi...
 
malicus said:
Assuming the Lib Dems get crushed (decent assumption), there will likely be no coalition majority government, unless there is a serious backdown on either the SNP's or Labour's side regarding Trident renewal.

However, my assumption is that Labour and Tories poll roughly the same numbers. If Labour can sneak ahead by a decent handful of seats (may not take more than a few percentage points) then even a rekt Lib dem party may have enough seats to firm up majority Lab-Lib.
The SNP being kingmakers is far from certain, and no longer relies on Scotland voting SNP, but rather LibDem and to a lesser extent Tory votes moving to Labour in key Tory marginals. Will that happen? Stay tuned.
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Like the Lib-Lab pact that sustained the Labour Government in the 70s if memory serves.

When do we get PR is what I want to know. No way am I relaunching The Communist Party of Great Britain until there is a decent chance of a working majority.
 
Craig B said:
I'm saying that if people believe this, as they in fact do, than it's hypocritical of them to offer vows of Devo Max to scottish voters, whether they fulfil their vows in April or not.
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So basically, after goodness knows how long of you stridently complaining that Scotland is such a special case that cannot in any way be compared with other bits of United Kingdom, you complain at the prospect of... Scotland actually being treated as a special case?
 
Information Analyst said:
So basically, after goodness knows how long of you stridently complaining that Scotland is such a special case that cannot in any way be compared with other bits of United Kingdom, you complain at the prospect of... Scotland actually being treated as a special case?
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I think you might be seeing something in CraigB's response that I can't. I can't make any sense of it at all, in fact.
 
The Don said:
Doesn't this create a bubble in housing at around the £650k-£1m mark ?
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Might create a bubble in death too I suppose.

Rum said:
Also London/SE centric.
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I think if it was south-east-centric there would be a higher allowance for that region than others. The same limit nationwide is more generous to areas where property is cheaper because folks there can bequeath a larger mansion. So in the same way as Labour's mansion tax, it is anti-south-east.

Anyway I disagree with cutting IHT it is one of the least inefficient taxes. I pretty much agree with increasing property tax as well but Labour's proposal isn't all that great if it redistributes according to geography. So I guess on both taxes I'd favour Labour. Not without reducing other taxes though which Labour won't do.
 
Guardian / ICM poll today (fieldwork 10-12th April) puts Tories 6pt ahead of Labour, 39 to 33. LibDems on 8%.

That'll put a cat amongst the coalition pigeons.
 
anglolawyer said:
That's big. Is that overall majority territory?
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My Electoral Calculus ready-reckoner says yes. Though complicated by the unique situation in Scotland - which I am presuming doesn't affect the Tories due to their only being a chance of 0/1 MPs.
 
malicus said:
My Electoral Calculus ready-reckoner says yes. Though complicated by the unique situation in Scotland - which I am presuming doesn't affect the Tories due to their only being a chance of 0/1 MPs.
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Thanks. I guess the Tories are pretty much immune to the stuffing Labour is due to get in Scotland having already cunningly made themselves extremely unpopular there.
 
malicus said:
My Electoral Calculus ready-reckoner says yes. Though complicated by the unique situation in Scotland - which I am presuming doesn't affect the Tories due to their only being a chance of 0/1 MPs.
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RE: that poll, it's worth noting the following...

Boon said the sample chosen looks “demographically sound”, but acknowledges there are signs in the raw data that this sample “could be a just touch too Tory”. In particular, there are more 2010 Conservative voters than ICM would ordinarily expect, and also more voters from the professional occupational grade.
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http://www.theguardian.com/politics...tives-six-point-lead-guardian-icm-poll-labour

So maybe a slight boost to Conservative in the sample, but still it suggests the Tories are making progress at the expense of UKIP and perhaps also Labour.

From the same article...

Taking in the ICM result, the Guardian’s updated average of recent polls puts the Tories on 33.7% and Labour on 33.6%.
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Neck and neck. Interesting times!
 
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